The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of decreasing GDP, which the U.S. has not yet reached. However, much debate has surfaced since the beginning of the S&P 500's roughly 20% YTD decline as to whether or not that definition is really an accurate method of determining whether or not a nation is actually in a recession. I, for one, believe that the U.S is already in a recession (you can believe what you want, I won't argue this).
As for the stock market, indeed today was a brutal day, with the DJIA down 778 points. Again, I said this yesterday, if anyone has money exposed to the market's volatility in an IRA, 401K, or any other type of investment account, you really need to rethink your positions and asset allocation. Now is the time to do it. It may be too late by the time you get around to it. Now is the time to decrease market exposure and increase assets in fixed income areas. Or, I would recommend that if you have only long positions in growth stocks that you hedge your positions by shorting the S&P 500 (long SDS or short SPY) or by taking short positions in financial ETFs. I would buy SKF, or short UYG or XLF. Unfortunately we cannot short individual financial stocks (ETF shorts are still allowed though), as such an act is temporarily banned until Oct 2, and the ban will almost surely be extended considering the market's condition in its current state. However, put options are still allowed and can be an amazingly effective as method of decreasing risk in a portfolio. Obviously I'm still bearish on financials on a short term basis. Also, if you want to further decrease risk, you could take long positions in value plays such as Apple, Gamestop, and Activision Blizzard while hedging the positions, which are currently trading at 52-week lows (AAPL and GME are, ATVI is not). Do not buy any long position in equities right now without hedging. You're almost guaranteed to get burned given the current market's state and incredible volatility.
Normally I wouldn't recommend buying stocks at 52 week lows; however, such a method right now in quality growth stocks such as Apple and Gamestop, companies that experience seasonal rises during the holidays, can be effective when combined with a hedging strategy. The condition of the U.S. financial system will determine the direction of Wall Street day in and day out. If the financial system somehow miraculously recovers or is up on good news, value stocks that have been beaten up lately such as Apple will rise quickly.
One of my goals in life is to get people to look at their retirement plan more than just once a quarter. You really need to know what's going on so you can reach retirement safely.
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