I have this problem too, I have a gateway gt5662 w/ 3 gigs of ram, amd phenom quad core with 2.20 ghz, an ati radeon 2400 xt and use vista 32-bit, it makes me wait about a minute and then it says either connection failed or failed to logon. sometimes it lets me on but that isnt often. my game is also fully up to date.
This is a common problem, many people are also getting this "lost connection" and "invalid key" and such. You just have to keep trying to connect, it may take a few times, it may take thirty. You should get in though if you just keep logging in over and over, I know it's a hastle but it works.
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