At best, it would take Microsoft at least 5 years to crack Steam User's loyalty. And that would require exclusives, fiercely competitive deals and a solid, free service that could parallel that of Steam's. Highly unlikely considering Xbox Live is a pay-to-use service that offers next to no freebies or bang-for-buck.
Here's why Steam will reign supreme.
Now, consider why they beat the PlayStation 3 in sales at the start of this generation. There was no PS3. So people turned to the next best thing; the only console alternative available at the time.
Next, consider their other attempts to compete in different markets.
- They tried to battle it out with RIM's Blackberry and Apple's iPhone and the other deluge of smartphones available on the market. And while the Windows Mobile platform has seen modest success, it has not significantly impacted the performance of other, well-established iPhone brands.
- They tried to fight the iPod with the Zune - a catchy, well-researched name, combined with a fresh, colorful look - all bundled into a promising, new, multimedia device. That didn't fail, but how many people do you know that own a Zune?
- They backed HD-DVD in an attempt to compete with Sony and Toshiba's media format, BluRay and failed miserably. HD-DVDs went the way of the 8-track.
As you can no doubt tell, Microsoft is very successful in the software market. There are no doubts about that. Windows is the most widely-used and well recognized operating system out there. Microsoft established itself quickly at the dawn of affordable, easy-to-use personal computer and has remained king ever since. But the only time they've ever conquered an established market was with the Xbox 360, and that was because Sony's PS3 and Nintendo's Wii was not available at the time.
Microsoft could only take down Steam if they did just that: buy them out and shut them down. Or perhaps wait until Steam makes a catastrophic mistake, loses their customer base and falls into bankruptcy, before they release their triumphant new digital distribution platform.
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