[QUOTE="gamenerd15"]
It is too soon for me. I haven't played half the games I want to on the system. In terms of lifecycle, a new system would not be that far off. With Nintendo's new console only a year away, I doubt MS and Sony are going to sit comfortably with old hardware. Nintendo will be the ones with a "new" console while the other 2 systems will be considered "last generation." People are going to get excited for new consoles once Nintendo's hits and they are going to want to see what Microsoft and Sony have. I say we will see Sony's and Microsoft's systems in 2013.
The PS3 did not take off in the long run like Sony thought it would. I remember back in 07 when everyone was saying that in the long run people are going to want to own a PS3 later on. It has not happened. Look at 2011. Sony has come out with more games than Microsoft, but the 360 still outsells the PS3. The PS3 came out with more games than the 360 last year, but the 360 still outsold it. The PS3 still has sold pretty well, but the launch of the system really hurrt the Sony brand. Everyone bought a 360 instead of a PS3 and then when the system actually got games, a lot of people didn't care because they already bought a 360. With the PS4, Sony can't wait a year to get its crap together. People can't live off launch games for 7 months. $600 is too expensive regardless of what the system can do. With MS having more games at the start, the PS3 still suffers the statement that "it has no games" even here and now in 2011. Sony lost this generation pure and simple. As much as I love the PS3, it never made the comeback everyone said it would and it won't for the rest of the generation.
A lot of developers are finishing their franchises on current generation hardware between now and next year. Mass Effect 3 finishes the trilogy. Assassins Creed is finishing its trilogy this year. The main Ratchet and Clank games have been done since 09. I doubt we will se Resistance 4 or Uncharted 4 on PS3 if the developers decide to continue the franchises. Motorstorm Apocalypse came out this year. Little Big Planet 2 came out this year. Yakuza finishes on PS3 next year for westerners. Most of Sony's first party studios are putting their games out this year. I doubt we will see Killzone 4 on PS3. Sony seems to be done. The Last Guardian comes out next year. The mandatory Twisted Metal game comes out this year. Ninja Gaiden 3 will come out either this year or next year. Bioshock Finishes its trilogy next year. I don't think Sony's first party will roll out with that many more games past 2012.
Developers are finishing ther trilogies, so they can jump to next generation.
sixgears2
I have to disagree with you. First of all, Nintendo's new console is essentially irrelevant due to how far behind the Wii is technologically. We won't know for sure until E3, but nearly every analysis I have read has stated that the new console will be basically on par technologically with the 360 and PS3. That means that this new Nintendo console is really more about Nintendo simply catching up rather than pushing the industry ahead. Also, if it is true that the new console is only a current gen level machine, then that would seem to support the idea that we are only about halfway through this generation because Nintendo would not release a console that will be outdated within a year or two.And to address your argument about developers wrapping up trilogies, that hardly seems like evidenve of a new console generation. First of all, basically no developer has stated that the current releases will be the last for this generation, so assuming they will is pure conjecture. Your evidence is being tailored to fit your theory. There are many sequels in the works for next year, and just because you don't THINK that the current series will be carried on during this generation doesn't make that true. Devs may be finishing up trilogies simply so they can move on to other projects or new IPs, or perhaps some of the series in question were never stated to be trilogies and will simply carry on forever while they can still sell well.
Finally according to major publishers like EA, neither MS nor Sony have released even preliminary dev kits for the new consoles, so there is no way that developers could really be working on anything next-gen quite yet. If you figure that most games have a 2-3 year dev cycle, that means that complete new generation games won't start appearing for at least that length of time and probably longer--it all depends on when the dev kits come out. Developers are not going to be simply sitting on their hands during that gap time, so I expect we will still see several more years of great content during this generation.
Nintendo's new console will be more powerful than the PS3 and 360. http://wii.ign.com/articles/113/1135489p1.html I don't see how Nintendo is irrelevant just because of graphics.
It takes years to make a game and even longer to make a new IP. Do you honestly think that Bioware, Insomniac, or Naughty are going to continue to make current generation games after 2012? It takes 2 to 3 years to make a game. If development continues on current generation after 2012, then the games of a lot of developers would come out in 2014 or 2015. This means that when the next generation does hit, a lot of developers won't have any games to put on the new systems. Developers have already pushed the systems quite a bit. A lot of the newer games will be multiple discs on 360. L.A. Noir will be 3 discs, Dead Space 2 is two discs, Rage will be 2 discs, I am sure Elder Scrolls 5 will be multiple discs on the console as well. This means that developers have pretty much maxed out what the 360 can handle. Uncharted 2 maxed out a single layer blu ray disc. FF 13 was 3 discs on 360, so I assume it was put onto a dual layered blu ray disc for PS3. Developers are maxing out what they can do on current generation hardware. I doubt developers are going to sit around for the next 3 years with current generation hardware.
Sony's studios are putting out a lot of games this year, That seems to imply that Sony is looking to move on to the next generation. I doubt there will be a huge leap in hardware next generation. The graphics are going to be doubled like 8 bit to 16 bit, or 64 bit to 128 bit. Graphics are reaching a wall. What game has come out that looks a giant leap ahead of Crysis, Killzone, Uncharted, or Heavy Rain. I am sure there are a few games out there, but not very many. If developers are already complaining how expensive games are now, then I doubt anyone is pushing is going to push power a whole lot for the next generation.
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