Personally, I think that the timing of the PS4 will be tied to the timing of Nintendo's and MS's release (much like their's will be tied to Sony). All in all, in todays market, one company can't skip or miss a new generation as todays consumer is rather attracted to things that are "new and shiny". I'm not saying that everyone is like this, just that enough are.
Let's look at how many people buy a console at launch. When you get a launch console there are a few things that come with this. If you got it at launch, you pre-ordered it (more than likely, really. Less likely, you're one heck of a lucky SOB. Possible, but not by much). What else did you're early (and let's face it, blind. Just being honest here) decision get you? 1) the smallest selection of games that console is going to see in it's lifetime. (2) If the sytem is going to have mass defects, it'll probably be in the launch units. (3) The highest price point the system will see. So why do people invest so early? Cause they want the "next big thing" to hit the console world and have faith that thisconsole is it.That's what selling these.
Now, looking at that, I just don't think that Sony (or any of the companies) could afford to not launch close to, if not at the same time as their competitors. Sony could lose sales to their competitors iftheir competitors come up to bat with their next big thing and Sony doesn't. The consumer market could switch away from Sony to pour money into the other (newer) sytem(s).
Also, MS got a nice jump in sales by getting their system out earlier, but that may not have been the case if Sony and Nintendo had hit at the same time. Some people just didn't want to wait. Now Sony isn't doing so well with people pointing at it's library. This, by contrast to MS, does look bad b/c MS has had more time to get their library fleshed out. Had they launched at the same time, they would've looked equal in the first few months.
That's my two cents at least. As for a date, 2010 sounds too early. All companies want their systems out there and pulling in money for a bit (on the software), to recoup the money lost producing/researching/designing the hardware (and repairing it, in some cases). 2012 at the earliest, is my prediction.
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