Blu-Ray mainstream adoption will happen in 2011

http://www.theage.com.au/news/home-entertainment/articles/bluray-struggles-to-break-through/2008/10/07/1223145318783.html

Blu-ray is struggling to catch on in Australia and around the world and is in danger of being skipped over by consumers, but the format's proponents believe this year's Christmas shopping rush will be a major tipping point.

Despite Australians' love affair with big screen high-definition TV sets, people are not making the most of them by pairing the TV sets with HD-capable Blu-ray players, largely choosing to stick with standard definition DVD.

Sony, the main backer of Blu-ray, says there are about 2.3 million HDTVs in Australian households but only 400,000 Blu-ray players have been sold, including the PlayStation 3 games console, which has Blu-ray built in.

The company said 370,000 PS3s had been sold in Australia so far, indicating only about 30,000 households had picked up a stand-alone player solely for the purpose of playing Blu-ray discs.

Of all the movies sold on disc in Australia, Blu-ray sales make up just 1.9 per cent of the total market, figures provided by Sony Pictures reveal.

In the US the figure is 5 per cent while in Britain and France Blu-ray penetration is under 2 per cent.

Even for a new technology, the penetration figures are low considering Blu-ray has been on the Australian market for two years and its main competitor, HD DVD, was axed just under a year ago.

To drive awareness of Blu-ray, Sony on Sunday night kicked off a major advertising campaign on Channel Ten featuring Australian actor Craig McLachlan.

As well, Disney and Panasonic this month began a tour of shopping centres in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, aiming to drive awareness of the advantages of upgrading to Blu-ray.

The shift from VHS to DVD a decade ago offered tangible benefits such as significantly improved picture quality and the ability to skip instantly to any scene of the film. However, Blu-ray's improvements over DVD are less pronounced and largely limited to a noticeable but far from extreme increase in picture quality, provided a big screen HDTV is used.

Sony Australia's brand and channel marketing manager, Vanessa Hamilton, said Blu-ray players, initially priced at more than $2000 for a stand-alone unit, had struggled to compete with DVD players that at the time sold for under $500 each. A DVD player could now be had for less than $200.

The $699 PS3 had been an effective Trojan Horse for Blu-ray but Hamilton said mass market adoption would start this year, following the introduction over the next few months of two new stand-alone Sony Blu-ray players, the cheaper of which costs $449.

-----------------------------------

Note article is Australian so it uses our local dollar figures.

It only further emphasises the big mistake of adding the Blu-Ray onto the PS3. I always said Blu-Ray won't be mainstream until next gen (2012 onwards). Consider the fact the PS3 price is now around the price of PS2 at launch (the PS2 was $500 at the same time in its life). Also the 360 Pro is at $500 after price cuts a few months ago and the Wii making up 70% of all console sales so far this year. The PS3 at $500 without a Blu-Ray at launch (note it was $1000) would have outsold the Wii.

It just came at a crappy time in America, but it will pick up.

If they are smart there will be big BD movie/player sales for Christmas.

Not everyone has made the switch to HD yet. Heck, even mainstream television broadcasts have very limited selections and poor cable plans for those that want to subscribe to HD programming.

Blu-Ray will rise, inevitably, since we will all switch to HD eventually. It's a matter of when the consumers decide to create a strong demand for HD content that the Blu-Ray format can finally take a jump into the mainstream media industry.

A major problem is holographic data strorage is projected to arrive in 2010. While it'll be extremely expensive at first, by 2011 it may have fallen in price to become a viable option for some consumers. The HVD that'll be the main format for the technology will have up to 3.9 terabytes of storage space, this absolutely dwarves' the Blu Ray, plus it will have fast disk reading speed rates. It's such a massive leap in size that it may overshadow the Blu Ray completely. 3.9 terabytes is larger then the biggest PC hardrives we have today, like.

Apparently Nintendo may be using holographic discs for their next console, which would certainly solve any storage space problems.

Blu Ray is to media formats what Vista is to operating systems.

Why does everyone think Blu Ray is the next adopted format?

Blu Ray is to media formats what Vista is to operating systems.

Why does everyone think Blu Ray is the next adopted format?

speedsix

I'd love to know how you came to that conclusion.

A major problem is holographic data strorage is projected to arrive in 2010. While it'll be extremely expensive at first, by 2011 it may have fallen in price to become a viable option for some consumers.

ithilgore2006

you mean like Blu-Ray did?

[QUOTE="speedsix"]

Blu Ray is to media formats what Vista is to operating systems.

Why does everyone think Blu Ray is the next adopted format?

Chutebox

I'd love to know how you came to that conclusion.

Expensive and pointless to most and more than likely skipped over for the next.

[QUOTE="Chutebox"][QUOTE="speedsix"]

Blu Ray is to media formats what Vista is to operating systems.

Why does everyone think Blu Ray is the next adopted format?

speedsix

I'd love to know how you came to that conclusion.

Expensive and pointless to most and more than likely skipped over for the next.

Expensive I can understand, for now. How is it pointless to most?

[QUOTE="ithilgore2006"]

A major problem is holographic data strorage is projected to arrive in 2010. While it'll be extremely expensive at first, by 2011 it may have fallen in price to become a viable option for some consumers.

Hewkii

you mean like Blu-Ray did?

[QUOTE="Hewkii"][QUOTE="ithilgore2006"]

A major problem is holographic data strorage is projected to arrive in 2010. While it'll be extremely expensive at first, by 2011 it may have fallen in price to become a viable option for some consumers.

ithilgore2006

you mean like Blu-Ray did?

Anyway, what if the movie companies start forcing the transition to BD by not releasing DVD versions of the biggest movies?

WTH is this doing in a game forum.Cows hoping for some kind of victory?In 2011?xgraderx

LOL, someone angered this fanboy.

In a manner yes, but I'd say more like DVD, simply becuase it's more comparable to the leap between VHS and DVD then DVD and Blu Ray, which really, is very small, which is why there's still low demand for it. Instead of both high price and lack of interest, like Blu Ray, the HVD will probably only be held back initially by price.ithilgore2006

and the fact that no one is promoting it. at all.

[QUOTE="ithilgore2006"]In a manner yes, but I'd say more like DVD, simply becuase it's more comparable to the leap between VHS and DVD then DVD and Blu Ray, which really, is very small, which is why there's still low demand for it. Instead of both high price and lack of interest, like Blu Ray, the HVD will probably only be held back initially by price.Hewkii

and the fact that no one is promoting it. at all.

Disney is really the only company I've seen really advertising and making an effort. Well, effort/rip-off, re-releasing all their oldies again but on BD.

[QUOTE="Hewkii"]

[QUOTE="ithilgore2006"]In a manner yes, but I'd say more like DVD, simply becuase it's more comparable to the leap between VHS and DVD then DVD and Blu Ray, which really, is very small, which is why there's still low demand for it. Instead of both high price and lack of interest, like Blu Ray, the HVD will probably only be held back initially by price.Chutebox

and the fact that no one is promoting it. at all.

Disney is really the only company I've seen really advertising and making an effort. Well, effort/rip-off, re-releasing all their oldies again but on BD.

[QUOTE="Chutebox"][QUOTE="Hewkii"]

[QUOTE="ithilgore2006"]In a manner yes, but I'd say more like DVD, simply becuase it's more comparable to the leap between VHS and DVD then DVD and Blu Ray, which really, is very small, which is why there's still low demand for it. Instead of both high price and lack of interest, like Blu Ray, the HVD will probably only be held back initially by price.HuusAsking

and the fact that no one is promoting it. at all.

Disney is really the only company I've seen really advertising and making an effort. Well, effort/rip-off, re-releasing all their oldies again but on BD.

I think they would hold off and complain for a while, but eventually they would give in.

Blu-Ray is meaningless and I have the big HDTV. The upsacling my DVD's go through is more than enough for now. The next big thing will of course be digital distribution having a format or hard copy is so 2008.Khansoul

I don't know how anyone can honestly say that if they have a 1080p along with everything hooked up right.

It just came at a crappy time in America, but it will pick up.

If they are smart there will be big BD movie/player sales for Christmas.

Chutebox

This.

It WILL be adopted, just like DVD was. It's just a matter of time.

considering the failing economy around the world, it's going to be a bad holiday season for all electronics and blu ray included. that 'adoption' year may have to be pushed back a bit.

Oh great. I guess it'll replace DVD, so that everyone will have to pay $700 just to watch movies?stappy

[QUOTE="Khansoul"]Blu-Ray is meaningless and I have the big HDTV. The upsacling my DVD's go through is more than enough for now. The next big thing will of course be digital distribution having a format or hard copy is so 2008.Chutebox

I don't know how anyone can honestly say that if they have a 1080p along with everything hooked up right.

I've seen the difference firsthand. And I'll tell you, it doesn't really impress me. Sure, it's a crisper, sharper picture; but the gist of the picture's still there on the 480 picture.

Heck, even mainstream television broadcasts have very limited selections and poor cable plans for those that want to subscribe to HD programming.Brainhunter

Nah. You can get over the air HD for free. My house always had poor analog reception. Now that its digital its either on or off and its always on for. So its a better image at perfect reception. Plus, all the major networks broadcast in HD and most of all of the local news for my city, Atlanta, is in HD too.

[QUOTE="Chutebox"]

It just came at a crappy time in America, but it will pick up.

If they are smart there will be big BD movie/player sales for Christmas.

ukillwegrill

This.

It WILL be adopted, just like DVD was. It's just a matter of time.

Why are you so sure? It's not looking very promising at the moment. Beating HD-DVD does not mean it is guaranteed to be the next format.

[QUOTE="ukillwegrill"][QUOTE="Chutebox"]

It just came at a crappy time in America, but it will pick up.

If they are smart there will be big BD movie/player sales for Christmas.

speedsix

This.

It WILL be adopted, just like DVD was. It's just a matter of time.

Why are you so sure? It's not looking very promising at the moment. Beating HD-DVD does not mean it is guaranteed to be the next format.

[QUOTE="speedsix"][QUOTE="ukillwegrill"][QUOTE="Chutebox"]

It just came at a crappy time in America, but it will pick up.

If they are smart there will be big BD movie/player sales for Christmas.

HuusAsking

This.

It WILL be adopted, just like DVD was. It's just a matter of time.

Why are you so sure? It's not looking very promising at the moment. Beating HD-DVD does not mean it is guaranteed to be the next format.

who knows? Blu-ray? Direct download? some new format that has yet to be launched?

[QUOTE="HuusAsking"]

So what happens when (not if) studios start dropping DVD?st1ka

who knows? Blu-ray? Direct download? some new format that has yet to be launched?

[QUOTE="st1ka"][QUOTE="HuusAsking"]

So what happens when (not if) studios start dropping DVD?HuusAsking

who knows? Blu-ray? Direct download? some new format that has yet to be launched?

you can't claim to know that, none of us can

[QUOTE="HuusAsking"][QUOTE="st1ka"][QUOTE="HuusAsking"]

So what happens when (not if) studios start dropping DVD?st1ka

who knows? Blu-ray? Direct download? some new format that has yet to be launched?

you can't claim to know that, none of us can

Most of the format developments are in the realm of three-dimensional holographic storage on disc. There are two chief formats in development: InPhase Tapestry Media and HVD. HVD is in the prototype stage, and they've themselves noted their first target is enterprises who can stomach a five-figure price tag. As for InPhase, they've yet to make a single production target after three attemps and some layoffs, and there's still no word on price. There are other technologies out there, but UDO doesn't offer a big improvement over BD (especially since BD can layer), protein-coated discs are still experimental and suffer from longevity problems, and we haven't heard much about SVOD in over two years.

Actually, I can make reasonable claims to that. Any new format takes years to adopt at the least, unless you're willing to prove that some new format can come unannounced out of the blue and blow everything else away.

Most of the format developments are in the realm of three-dimensional holographic storage on disc. There are two chief formats in development: InPhase Tapestry Media and HVD. HVD is in the prototype stage, and they've themselves noted their first target is enterprises who can stomach a five-figure price tag. As for InPhase, they've yet to make a single production target after three attemps and some layoffs, and there's still no word on price. There are other technologies out there, but UDO doesn't offer a big improvement over BD (especially since BD can layer), protein-coated discs are still experimental and suffer from longevity problems, and we haven't heard much about SVOD in over two years.

HuusAsking

I do believe i have been owned :o

i can't believe people still think Blu-Ray will be around in 2011. this makes me smile.3picuri3

Blu-ray will become mainstream once HDTVs come down in price enough.dream431ca

yep, but even there they should drop the price of blu-ray player and blu-ray movie. A blu-ray movie is 40$cdn vs 20$ for a dvd and frankly, there is not enought difference for me to put 40$ on a blu-ray while I could get 2 dvd.

When stand-alone Blu-Ray players become cheap enough to be accepted by most people, the PS3 will lose a major selling point (nobody will buy them to play games, in the same way that nobody buys Xbox 360s to watch DVDs).Planeforger

[QUOTE="Planeforger"]When stand-alone Blu-Ray players become cheap enough to be accepted by most people, the PS3 will lose a major selling point (nobody will buy them to play games, in the same way that nobody buys Xbox 360s to watch DVDs).HuusAsking

Or you can buy a drive for your PC for a little cheaper (with DVD burning capabilities too)

LINKIPOO!!!

[QUOTE="3picuri3"]i can't believe people still think Blu-Ray will be around in 2011. this makes me smile.HuusAsking

bluray is struggling, and failing to get any major retail traction. it has been sputtering for 3 years now. reputable articles written even this month, and some studies in august, show it is destined to fail. the current economic state is the nail in the coffin - one of the first things to drop off when times get tough are electronics purchases (for some reason games are immune to this, apparently they make us happier than movies do, go figure).

unless HDTV price points drop off the charts blu-ray is going nowhere. it might still be around come 2010-11 because of the PS3 but it will be more akin to UMD than DVD in scope of it's adoption.

you can say all you want about it - but i work in research and i've seen numbers. blu-ray partners are very upset at the current situation and i don't think it'll be too much longer before people start trying to cut their losses.

and if you hadn't noticed 2011 is about 3 years away - so broadband will likely be where it has to be. i personally have no issues with online distribution of HD titles with my connection... so I find it hard to believe it will be a big issue in the years to come. it's an expensive transition but it's infrastructure that is necessary - not only for online distribution, but retail and general information use.

blu-ray will NEVER be like DVD. NEVER. there will be no magical flick of the switch where people all of a sudden think it's a great idea to replace their 2000$+ collections for slightly improved fidelity and uncompressed audio. not in this economy :) not a chance in hell.

blu-ray will NEVER be like DVD. NEVER. there will be no magical flick of the switch where people all of a sudden think it's a great idea to replace their 2000$+ collections for slightly improved fidelity and uncompressed audio. not in this economy :) not a chance in hell.

3picuri3

[QUOTE="3picuri3"]

blu-ray will NEVER be like DVD. NEVER. there will be no magical flick of the switch where people all of a sudden think it's a great idea to replace their 2000$+ collections for slightly improved fidelity and uncompressed audio. not in this economy :) not a chance in hell.

HuusAsking

why would a company choose to stop making money ? :|

[QUOTE="3picuri3"]

blu-ray will NEVER be like DVD. NEVER. there will be no magical flick of the switch where people all of a sudden think it's a great idea to replace their 2000$+ collections for slightly improved fidelity and uncompressed audio. not in this economy :) not a chance in hell.

HuusAsking

Bye bye profit. People don't buy blu-ray cause theres no need for it. Whats it do that a normal DVD wont? Bit of extra content? Don't care. Got the internet if i was really all that interested but I'm not.

Reality is theres no need to ever go about DVD unless films somehow get super long and need the space, we've reached the point where we just don't need anything better, next step will be like Music and MP3 players, digital downloads. Not another Disc.

[QUOTE="3picuri3"]

blu-ray will NEVER be like DVD. NEVER. there will be no magical flick of the switch where people all of a sudden think it's a great idea to replace their 2000$+ collections for slightly improved fidelity and uncompressed audio. not in this economy :) not a chance in hell.

HuusAsking

if you think that will happen then I have no idea what to say to you - other than, no.

it would never happen in this market, not the slightest chance. dvd still makes insane amounts of money when weighted against BRD... do you think distributors would put a gun up to consumers heads and just cut off DVD? when people left right and center are losing their houses and can't afford to feed their pets / children without help from the government? you know what people would say? aside from this move pushing everyone in to heavy DVD piracy (yes it's easy for rip HD BRD to DVD and retain DVD quality) this move would just be plain nuts.

this isn't like VHS to DVD. the market is much more complicated than you think. DVD is the lead format for PC, all games are made for DVD, DVD is the leading blank media format. In other words it's a multi-layered market unlike VHS. back then you could just throw the switch because people were tired with VHS and the problems that came with it, unit repairs, quality, etc. No VHS was being used for personal computing or software distribution.

it will not happen. you can talk it up all you like - it's just a fantasy. cutting off DVD would be suicide for many of these companies (read partners) that are still in the red based on their initial BRD investment.

much much more complicated this time around.

[QUOTE="HuusAsking"][QUOTE="3picuri3"]

blu-ray will NEVER be like DVD. NEVER. there will be no magical flick of the switch where people all of a sudden think it's a great idea to replace their 2000$+ collections for slightly improved fidelity and uncompressed audio. not in this economy :) not a chance in hell.

CreepyBacon

Bye bye profit. People don't buy blu-ray cause theres no need for it. Whats it do that a normal DVD wont? Bit of extra content? Don't care. Got the internet if i was really all that interested but I'm not.

Reality is theres no need to ever go about DVD unless films somehow get super long and need the space, we've reached the point where we just don't need anything better, next step will be like Music and MP3 players, digital downloads. Not another Disc.

I think that movies do not need blue ray. At least, not untill a higher definition TVs become standard. Right now, if you have a 1080i TV, Blu-Ray wont make much difference. When TVs with a much higher res become the norm, that's when people will care. Sony pushed BR too early, IMO.

Games, on the other hand, will soon start to require BR. Not this gen, but soon.