Can we stop using VGChartz now?

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Adonymous

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#1 Adonymous
Member since 2008 • 1664 Posts

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

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beast667

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#2 beast667
Member since 2005 • 3397 Posts
whens the last time you saw anyone use VGchartz?
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st1ka

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#3 st1ka
Member since 2008 • 8179 Posts

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

Adonymous

and they have made graver mistakes then that, the problem is if we exclude GV charts we are left with nothing but the monthly NPD, at least this way we have some measure of knowing how they are selling

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Heydanbud92

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#4 Heydanbud92
Member since 2007 • 4464 Posts

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

Adonymous

they shipped that as of the end of june.

but yeah VG chartz is unreliable

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st1ka

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#5 st1ka
Member since 2008 • 8179 Posts

whens the last time you saw anyone use VGchartz?beast667

you dont see it directly, but indirectly many people make references to VG charts weekly report

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-Renegade

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#6 -Renegade
Member since 2007 • 8340 Posts

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

Adonymous

Sony's numbers are as of June 30th.... It's July 29th...

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Jared2720

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#7 Jared2720
Member since 2007 • 2200 Posts

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

Adonymous

You actually care about that junk?

Sales, sales, sales. The people around here sound more like corporate CEO's than gamers. Lame.

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Adonymous

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#8 Adonymous
Member since 2008 • 1664 Posts
[QUOTE="Adonymous"]

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

st1ka

and they have made graver mistakes then that, the problem is if we exclude GV charts we are left with nothing but the monthly NPD, at least this way we have some measure of knowing how they are selling

VG chartz isn't any meauser...

its as realiable as me or you or any other SW user.

I say we just go by NPD, Media Create, etc.

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bungie93

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#9 bungie93
Member since 2008 • 2445 Posts
VGchartz gives a rough estimate of hardware and software sales. It's not perfect, but it's better than nothing.
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-GhostMLD-

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#10 -GhostMLD-
Member since 2008 • 3282 Posts
they are close enough......
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Adonymous

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#11 Adonymous
Member since 2008 • 1664 Posts
[QUOTE="Adonymous"]

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

-Renegade

Sony's numbers are as of June 30th.... It's July 29th...

So in a month the PS3 sold all it shipped? :|

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st1ka

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#12 st1ka
Member since 2008 • 8179 Posts
[QUOTE="st1ka"][QUOTE="Adonymous"]

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

Adonymous

and they have made graver mistakes then that, the problem is if we exclude GV charts we are left with nothing but the monthly NPD, at least this way we have some measure of knowing how they are selling

VG chartz isn't any meauser...

its as realiable as me or you or any other SW user.

I say we just go by NPD, Media Create, etc.

true...

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beast667

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#13 beast667
Member since 2005 • 3397 Posts

[QUOTE="beast667"]whens the last time you saw anyone use VGchartz?st1ka

you dont see it directly, but indirectly many people make references to VG charts weekly report

Sure, but a few months ago, and a whole lot last year, there were threads comparing sales solely based on VGchartz, and I haven't seen anything like that in a while.
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Bubblehash

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#14 Bubblehash
Member since 2004 • 2914 Posts

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

Adonymous
Do you have a site for us to use instead?
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st1ka

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#15 st1ka
Member since 2008 • 8179 Posts
[QUOTE="st1ka"]

[QUOTE="beast667"]whens the last time you saw anyone use VGchartz?beast667

you dont see it directly, but indirectly many people make references to VG charts weekly report

Sure, but a few months ago, and a whole lot last year, there were threads comparing sales solely based on VGchartz, and I haven't seen anything like that in a while.

yeah i remember those...

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angelkimne

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#16 angelkimne
Member since 2006 • 14037 Posts
It's the most reliable worldwide sales resource....
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butteater86

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#17 butteater86
Member since 2007 • 1306 Posts
Nobody really uses VGchartz anymore, except like....Renegade
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subrosian

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#18 subrosian
Member since 2005 • 14232 Posts

The real reason to stop using VGchartz isn't them being off by a few hundred thousand units on multi-million selling consoles - it's that they've been off by a few hundred thousand units on games that only sold a few hundred thousand units. They've claimed games were at 500,000 when they had broken one million. They've claimed games were at 800,000 that only sold 250,000 copies.

-

What's worse - people believe VGchartz - they form an opinion based on information one guy pulled out of his butt, then later when VGchartz updates to INVALIDATE their opinion, they say "see! they update! that proves they're right!"

No, it proves that they are wrong, 95% of the time *anything* on VGchartz is no better than a random guess - the 5% of the time it's right is when it's copy-pasting someone else's sales data. It's absolutely pathetic. Basically, if you quote vgchartz or use vgchartz, what you're really saying is "I'm gullible."

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-GhostMLD-

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#19 -GhostMLD-
Member since 2008 • 3282 Posts

this is bull............

ur right. 360 is in the lead over PS3. The least VG can do is properly reflect that......

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-Renegade

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#20 -Renegade
Member since 2007 • 8340 Posts
[QUOTE="-Renegade"][QUOTE="Adonymous"]

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

Adonymous

Sony's numbers are as of June 30th.... It's July 29th...

So in a month the PS3 sold all it shipped? :|

Yeah it's possible MGS 4 was just released and they also have the 360 at 20 million sold.

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dream431ca

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#21 dream431ca
Member since 2003 • 10165 Posts
Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!
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-GhostMLD-

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#22 -GhostMLD-
Member since 2008 • 3282 Posts
[QUOTE="Adonymous"][QUOTE="-Renegade"][QUOTE="Adonymous"]

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

-Renegade

Sony's numbers are as of June 30th.... It's July 29th...

So in a month the PS3 sold all it shipped? :|

Yeah it's possible MGS 4 was just released and they also have the 360 at 20 million sold.

thats probably it.....

they put both consoles at what they shipped. so i guess the numbers are good.

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SambaLele

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#23 SambaLele
Member since 2004 • 5552 Posts

wow

VGchartz got it close this time. Also, those numbers are from the last month.

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subrosian

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#25 subrosian
Member since 2005 • 14232 Posts

Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!dream431ca

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

-

You have to be absolutely *gullible* to believe VGchartz. It's like believing in psychics, they use a technique called cold reading (google this) and people go "wow, they got it right! look how close they were". Psychics, and VGchartz, exploit the natural tendency for people to forget all the times they *weren't right* and the times they were *way off*. People like to believe this kind of crap, especially when it says something they want to hear, so, there you have it.

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mjarantilla

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#26 mjarantilla
Member since 2002 • 15721 Posts
[QUOTE="Adonymous"]

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

-Renegade

Sony's numbers are as of June 30th.... It's July 29th...

No, it's June 30 in Asia. 16 hours ahead of Pacific time.

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mjarantilla

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#27 mjarantilla
Member since 2002 • 15721 Posts

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

Adonymous

VGChartz has modified their data to 14.47m units. :lol:

Pathetic.

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angelkimne

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#28 angelkimne
Member since 2006 • 14037 Posts
[QUOTE="Adonymous"]

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

mjarantilla

VGChartz has modified their data to 14.47m units. :lol:

Pathetic.

Yea. Trying to be as accurate as possible for their users is soo pathetic :roll:
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subrosian

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#29 subrosian
Member since 2005 • 14232 Posts
[QUOTE="mjarantilla"][QUOTE="Adonymous"]

Sony just announced today that they've shipped 14.41m units...yet on VGChartz...Sony has sold 14.51m PS3s to consumers :|

hmm...

angelkimne

VGChartz has modified their data to 14.47m units. :lol:

Pathetic.

Yea. Trying to be as accurate as possible for their users is soo pathetic :roll:

Yes actually it is - don't you get it? Is it so hard to grasp? If you looked at VGchartz before the data was updated, you formed an opinion based on *False information* - you made judgements, shaped your opinion, made decisions, based on information that was MADE UP, WRONG, INCORRECT, FALSE, and because it was simply a guess was a LIE, intended to deceive you.

Then it was updated *after the fact* to be correct and you praise them? No - this demonstrates exactly why we *shouldnt use them* because VGchartz tries to *cover up* when it was wrong.

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dream431ca

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#30 dream431ca
Member since 2003 • 10165 Posts

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!subrosian

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

I found something from their own website:

With a growing team of analysts, over ten years of experience and with over twenty years of historical data at our disposal, VG Chartz should be seen as a very powerful prediction tool for industry and casual user alike in looking ahead to the future market and making educated and informed predictions.

You could have just shown me this instead of your opinion and I would of immediatly agreed with you. See what a little research can muster?

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Blackbond

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#31 Blackbond
Member since 2005 • 24516 Posts

whens the last time you saw anyone use VGchartz?beast667

Renegade like every other week

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crunchUK

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#32 crunchUK
Member since 2007 • 3050 Posts
well you guys forget that VGchartz does worldwide. i suppose it's ok for a rough estimate. which is what yOu do with these things, since of course none are pinpoint accurate.
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beast667

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#33 beast667
Member since 2005 • 3397 Posts

[QUOTE="beast667"]whens the last time you saw anyone use VGchartz?Blackbond

Renegade like every other week

Thats my problem, any thread I see that has Renegade as the TC, I try to stay away from.
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kaealy

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#34 kaealy
Member since 2004 • 2179 Posts

I don't know what there is to discuss here really... Isn't the issue here that Sony themselves said they've shipped 14.41m units, and VGchartz numbers are said to be sold to costumers?(It has to be if they are using numbers such as the NPD).


So, the VGchartz numbers are off anyhow if they mislabel the numbers or mix sold to costumers and sold to retailers.

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mjarantilla

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#35 mjarantilla
Member since 2002 • 15721 Posts

well you guys forget that VGchartz does worldwide. i suppose it's ok for a rough estimate. which is what yOu do with these things, since of course none are pinpoint accurate.crunchUK

NPD is probably at least 95% accurate.

VGChartz is, at best, 40% accurate.

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subrosian

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#36 subrosian
Member since 2005 • 14232 Posts
[QUOTE="subrosian"]

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!dream431ca

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

I found something from their own website:

With a growing team of analysts, over ten years of experience and with over twenty years of historical data at our disposal, VG Chartz should be seen as a very powerful prediction tool for industry and casual user alike in looking ahead to the future market and making educated and informed predictions.

You could have just shown me this instead of your opinion and I would of immediatly agreed with you. See what a little research can muster?

Why are you being condescending? I mean really, you don't know me. I'm more than happy to spend a few hours showing you a stastical analysis of VGchartz if it would make any difference, cite the sources of their data, link you to a few dozen instances where they've been wildly off, and break down for you the cycle of deception they use. But, the vast majority of people here don't have the mathematics background to properly grasp it, I'd wind up spending hours having to explain how they were incorrect in their "rebuttals", and inevitably we'd have someone say "look how close they were! they try to be right, don't hate blah blah blah blah I'm gullible".

People do it all the time - I've found this fight a few hundred times, I've listed data, a few hundred times, I've made the same post time and time again, and I'm sick of it. So, I came to a simple conclusion - people are going to be idiots, and we can't stop them, and we're going about it wrong. We're going about it wrong "owning" them by showing them how *horribly* inaccurate their beliefs are - so let's do it the daytime TV way:

VGchartz is nothing more than a Miss Cleo, they take a few legitimate things to lend credit to a lot of stuff they're just making up. Yes, just like people who claim to "talk to the dead" they're good at what they do, and they make sure to make it look like they're right (in vghcartz case, by never subjecting themselves to any kind of acid test - they destroy their old data, and don't provide access to their claims, nor do they sit down and show you all the times they were wildly off by pitting their predictions against actual data).

Unfortunately VGchartz gets away with it, and frankly it will continue to get away with it - because there are people out there who want to believe. They want to believe this unmitigated stream of crap, they like the idea of having access to numbers that frankly they don't understand. They like it - because they want some justification for believing they things they believe, and saying the things they say. "I want right! The sales prove I'm smart!"

Sad, absolutely pathetic, but what can we do? How do we make gullible people stop behaving stupidly?

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beast667

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#37 beast667
Member since 2005 • 3397 Posts

I don't know what there is to discuss here really... Isn't the issue here that Sony themselves said they've shipped 14.41m units, and VGchartz numbers are said to be sold to costumers?(It has to be if they are using numbers such as the NPD).


So, the VGchartz numbers are off anyhow if they mislabel the numbers or mix sold to costumers and sold to retailers.

kaealy
well PS3 could have sold more than it shipped if there were still units sitting on shelves from last month, but whos to say for sure?
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dream431ca

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#38 dream431ca
Member since 2003 • 10165 Posts
[QUOTE="dream431ca"][QUOTE="subrosian"]

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!subrosian

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

I found something from their own website:

With a growing team of analysts, over ten years of experience and with over twenty years of historical data at our disposal, VG Chartz should be seen as a very powerful prediction tool for industry and casual user alike in looking ahead to the future market and making educated and informed predictions.

You could have just shown me this instead of your opinion and I would of immediatly agreed with you. See what a little research can muster?

Why are you being condescending? I mean really, you don't know me. I'm more than happy to spend a few hours showing you a stastical analysis of VGchartz if it would make any difference, cite the sources of their data, link you to a few dozen instances where they've been wildly off, and break down for you the cycle of deception they use. But, the vast majority of people here don't have the mathematics background to properly grasp it, I'd wind up spending hours having to explain how they were incorrect in their "rebuttals", and inevitably we'd have someone say "look how close they were! they try to be right, don't hate blah blah blah blah I'm gullible".

People do it all the time - I've found this fight a few hundred times, I've listed data, a few hundred times, I've made the same post time and time again, and I'm sick of it. So, I came to a simple conclusion - people are going to be idiots, and we can't stop them, and we're going about it wrong. We're going about it wrong "owning" them by showing them how *horribly* inaccurate their beliefs are - so let's do it the daytime TV way:

VGchartz is nothing more than a Miss Cleo, they take a few legitimate things to lend credit to a lot of stuff they're just making up. Yes, just like people who claim to "talk to the dead" they're good at what they do, and they make sure to make it look like they're right (in vghcartz case, by never subjecting themselves to any kind of acid test - they destroy their old data, and don't provide access to their claims, nor do they sit down and show you all the times they were wildly off by pitting their predictions against actual data).

Unfortunately VGchartz gets away with it, and frankly it will continue to get away with it - because there are people out there who want to believe. They want to believe this unmitigated stream of crap, they like the idea of having access to numbers that frankly they don't understand. They like it - because they want some justification for believing they things they believe, and saying the things they say. "I want right! The sales prove I'm smart!"

Sad, absolutely pathetic, but what can we do? How do we make gullible people stop behaving stupidly?

No need to get all upset. And I wasn't condescending, I was just pointing out that instead of using an opinion, it would have been of more value to just find some proof that VG charts was a bad source for information regarding sales. I don't think that paragraph was proof that VG charts is a bad source, but it was from their own site, and all sales sites use predictions for current data. It's pretty hard to get an exact figure.

Next question (and don't take this the wrong way), can you find me a site that is reliable for games and/or console sale figures?

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rockguy92

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#39 rockguy92
Member since 2007 • 21559 Posts

whens the last time you saw anyone use VGchartz?beast667

Here.

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-Renegade

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#40 -Renegade
Member since 2007 • 8340 Posts

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!subrosian

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

-

You have to be absolutely *gullible* to believe VGchartz. It's like believing in psychics, they use a technique called cold reading (google this) and people go "wow, they got it right! look how close they were". Psychics, and VGchartz, exploit the natural tendency for people to forget all the times they *weren't right* and the times they were *way off*. People like to believe this kind of crap, especially when it says something they want to hear, so, there you have it.

Just like to point something out there have been physics who have helped solve police cases.

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Hexagon_777

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#41 Hexagon_777
Member since 2007 • 20348 Posts
We have GfK for the EU and NPD for the US. I forgot what Japan uses, but yea, it has a system as well. We just have to be patient.
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-Renegade

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#42 -Renegade
Member since 2007 • 8340 Posts

[QUOTE="crunchUK"]well you guys forget that VGchartz does worldwide. i suppose it's ok for a rough estimate. which is what yOu do with these things, since of course none are pinpoint accurate.mjarantilla

NPD is probably at least 95% accurate.

VGChartz is, at best, 40% accurate.

There's no way they can be 95% accurate when they only can account for 65% of the market.

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mjarantilla

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#43 mjarantilla
Member since 2002 • 15721 Posts
[QUOTE="subrosian"]

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!-Renegade

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

-

You have to be absolutely *gullible* to believe VGchartz. It's like believing in psychics, they use a technique called cold reading (google this) and people go "wow, they got it right! look how close they were". Psychics, and VGchartz, exploit the natural tendency for people to forget all the times they *weren't right* and the times they were *way off*. People like to believe this kind of crap, especially when it says something they want to hear, so, there you have it.

Just like to point something out there have been physics who have helped solve police cases.

Well, of course. Physics is always used in police cases.

Oh wait, you mean PSYCHICS. Well, that's something else entirely. By any chance, have you ever seen the TV series, "Psych"?

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mjarantilla

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#44 mjarantilla
Member since 2002 • 15721 Posts
[QUOTE="mjarantilla"]

[QUOTE="crunchUK"]well you guys forget that VGchartz does worldwide. i suppose it's ok for a rough estimate. which is what yOu do with these things, since of course none are pinpoint accurate.-Renegade

NPD is probably at least 95% accurate.

VGChartz is, at best, 40% accurate.

There's no way they can be 95% accurate when they only can account for 65% of the market.

Actually, they can. Just like how presidential election polls can be 95% accurate even though they only poll a few thousand respondents. Anyone who has taken a freshman statistics course in college would know this.

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st1ka

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#45 st1ka
Member since 2008 • 8179 Posts
[QUOTE="-Renegade"][QUOTE="subrosian"]

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!mjarantilla

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

-

You have to be absolutely *gullible* to believe VGchartz. It's like believing in psychics, they use a technique called cold reading (google this) and people go "wow, they got it right! look how close they were". Psychics, and VGchartz, exploit the natural tendency for people to forget all the times they *weren't right* and the times they were *way off*. People like to believe this kind of crap, especially when it says something they want to hear, so, there you have it.

Just like to point something out there have been physics who have helped solve police cases.

Well, of course. Physics is always used in police cases.

Oh wait, you mean PSYCHICS. Well, that's something else entirely. By any chance, have you ever seen the TV series, "Psych"?

i loled

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SambaLele

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#46 SambaLele
Member since 2004 • 5552 Posts
[QUOTE="dream431ca"][QUOTE="subrosian"]

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!subrosian

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

I found something from their own website:

With a growing team of analysts, over ten years of experience and with over twenty years of historical data at our disposal, VG Chartz should be seen as a very powerful prediction tool for industry and casual user alike in looking ahead to the future market and making educated and informed predictions.

You could have just shown me this instead of your opinion and I would of immediatly agreed with you. See what a little research can muster?

Why are you being condescending? I mean really, you don't know me. I'm more than happy to spend a few hours showing you a stastical analysis of VGchartz if it would make any difference, cite the sources of their data, link you to a few dozen instances where they've been wildly off, and break down for you the cycle of deception they use. But, the vast majority of people here don't have the mathematics background to properly grasp it, I'd wind up spending hours having to explain how they were incorrect in their "rebuttals", and inevitably we'd have someone say "look how close they were! they try to be right, don't hate blah blah blah blah I'm gullible".

People do it all the time - I've found this fight a few hundred times, I've listed data, a few hundred times, I've made the same post time and time again, and I'm sick of it. So, I came to a simple conclusion - people are going to be idiots, and we can't stop them, and we're going about it wrong. We're going about it wrong "owning" them by showing them how *horribly* inaccurate their beliefs are - so let's do it the daytime TV way:

VGchartz is nothing more than a Miss Cleo, they take a few legitimate things to lend credit to a lot of stuff they're just making up. Yes, just like people who claim to "talk to the dead" they're good at what they do, and they make sure to make it look like they're right (in vghcartz case, by never subjecting themselves to any kind of acid test - they destroy their old data, and don't provide access to their claims, nor do they sit down and show you all the times they were wildly off by pitting their predictions against actual data).

Unfortunately VGchartz gets away with it, and frankly it will continue to get away with it - because there are people out there who want to believe. They want to believe this unmitigated stream of crap, they like the idea of having access to numbers that frankly they don't understand. They like it - because they want some justification for believing they things they believe, and saying the things they say. "I want right! The sales prove I'm smart!"

Sad, absolutely pathetic, but what can we do? How do we make gullible people stop behaving stupidly?

none of that changes the fact that you were radically biased against vgchartz without giving any trustworthy information in your previous post. we can be biased, but for that we should at least back what we're saying with some credible information.

i'm not saying vgchartz is credible. hell no, i don't go by their data. but you didn't do your homework with your other post, and there's no denying that.

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subrosian

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#47 subrosian
Member since 2005 • 14232 Posts
[QUOTE="subrosian"]

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!-Renegade

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

-

You have to be absolutely *gullible* to believe VGchartz. It's like believing in psychics, they use a technique called cold reading (google this) and people go "wow, they got it right! look how close they were". Psychics, and VGchartz, exploit the natural tendency for people to forget all the times they *weren't right* and the times they were *way off*. People like to believe this kind of crap, especially when it says something they want to hear, so, there you have it.

Just like to point something out there have been physics who have helped solve police cases.

Watch Penn & Teller's tv show called bull**** - no, there haven't. The role of so-called "psychics" in police cases is ancedotal at best. This is exactly what I'm talking about - people get something right one out of a dozen times and gullible people go "oh, that proves it! They must have psychic powers!" Yeah, sure, if you ignore the other 99 times out of 100 they were wrong, or you ignore that they used intentionally vague or parameterless "predictions", which they made fit the result after-the-fact.

VGchartz is no better than a random guess - sometimes they're close, sometimes they're wildly inaccurate, which is what makes them so useless. How can you form an opinion based on information that we have no means of knowing the accuracy of? We don't even have a confidence value for VGchartz, we don't have a known standard deviation, we don't have crap - what we have is a statistically meaningless guess based on real data - and the validity of that guess is a crapshot.

-

Only someone who is incredibly gullible, or a complete fanboy using any source (regardless of validity) would take VGchartz as anything more than a wild guess.

Next question (and don't take this the wrong way), can you find me a site that is reliable for games and/or console sale figures?

dream431ca

No. The gaming industry made the decision to keep their data internal, the companies that provide this data do so on a fee basis, or are the publishers / producers themselves. They announce the data when it benefits them to do so, however the industry on the whole has found sales speculation by a public that doesn't understand what that data means to be destructive. It's self-fulfilling, someone says "this game sold terribly" and it tends to, because people read it and go "oh, it must be crap".

Unfortunate, but true. So no, unless you're within the industry, the only information you have that's valid are the official announcements. But who cares? Sales don't matter - they're irrelevant to the individual gamer as to their enjoyment of a game or decision to buy a product.

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subrosian

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#48 subrosian
Member since 2005 • 14232 Posts

none of that changes the fact that you were radically biased against vgchartz without giving any trustworthy information in your previous post. we can be biased, but for that we should at least back what we're saying with some credible information.

i'm not saying vgchartz is credible. hell no, i don't go by their data. but you didn't do your homework with your other post, and there's no denying that.

SambaLele

http://www.google.com

type in "vgchartz inaccurate" - read

There's absolutely no point in my copy-pasting that here, and trying to teach you several years worth of statistics to actually get into validity, distribution mapping, and modeling would be a futile effort at best.

-

Further, there's no sense in it - a source must be *proven* to be good, I don't have to prove that it's bad. The burden of proof lies on your end, not mine. I can't *prove* conclusively a negative, in the sense that I can't prove that there's not a giant spaghetti monster living just beyond the reach of our telescopes. However, that doesn't mean it exists.

-

Despite all of that, a simple google search will show you the dozens upon dozens of times VGchartz was inaccurate. If you're willing to take it as fact until someone shows you otherwise, that would be the definition of gullibility. Gullible is when I tell you the panama canal was built in 1941, and you believe me until someone links you to a history book.

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-Renegade

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#49 -Renegade
Member since 2007 • 8340 Posts
[QUOTE="-Renegade"][QUOTE="subrosian"]

[QUOTE="dream431ca"]Can ANYONE tell me why VGCHARTS is a BAD source for information? I also need PROOF!mjarantilla

Look at the site - VGchartz is one guy, in his basement, publishing his *estimates* as fact, who has *zero* access to insider information, and no means of proving his guesses. VGchartz cannot be shown to be *good information* - it can't be shown to be reliable, in fact, just google, and you will find hundreds of instances where it was off by several hundred thousand units on games sales -again, because it's made up.

Using VGchartz is essentially the same as believing that the white house is made of sphagetti, because some guy on the internet said so - and then demanding that people prove it isn't. Use a little common sense.

-

You have to be absolutely *gullible* to believe VGchartz. It's like believing in psychics, they use a technique called cold reading (google this) and people go "wow, they got it right! look how close they were". Psychics, and VGchartz, exploit the natural tendency for people to forget all the times they *weren't right* and the times they were *way off*. People like to believe this kind of crap, especially when it says something they want to hear, so, there you have it.

Just like to point something out there have been physics who have helped solve police cases.

Well, of course. Physics is always used in police cases.

Oh wait, you mean PSYCHICS. Well, that's something else entirely. By any chance, have you ever seen the TV series, "Psych"?

I think so... I don't watch much TV so I am not entirely sure.

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-Renegade

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#50 -Renegade
Member since 2007 • 8340 Posts

NOONE can be 100% accurate because noone tracks all sales from all retailers to consumers. The only real numbers we can go buy are from game publishers and hardware developers. We can't really trust NPD, Media Create or Chart Track.

They are good for the history of video game sales... anyways I am going back to practice some more in Soul Calibur. Been getting my *** handed to me online. :?