Microsoft and Sony were only able to succeed against Nintendo and Sega due to existing experience (Sony with the ill-fated SNES CD add-on, Microsoft with DirectX) and significant capital to invest (both still make the majority of their money from their other divisions). Sony's entry helped finish Sega off; rather than trying to do the same thing as Sony and Microsoft and potentially meeting the same fate, Nintendo took a different direction with the Wii (one the other two are now determined to conquer as well). Three consoles is already almost too much; the vast resources available to Sony and Microsoft mean neither will drop out even if they "lose" a generation or two along the way, so the only glimmer of hope for a new player would be to attempt to take Nintendo's place by filling the "casual" niche, and even that would be a difficult task with both other players attempting to do the same. In the unlikely event of Nintendo's total failure in the console market they would simply retreat to the handheld market where the DS (and soon 3DS) has been immensely successful.
All things considered, at this point in time I don't think there are any other companies out there with sufficient financial and technical assets to possibly succeed in a market where all niches have been well covered between the three players.
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