Not if Nintendo takes the correct approach. NX isn't going to be a big success no matter what, but there are things that they can do for NX to put them back on track. Sorry to tell you this, but is extremely unlikely that NX will be Nintendo's final console no matter how it performs.
It doesn't need to be the #1 console or sell 100 Million units, but if it's a distant 3rd place again then I am not sure how you can confidently say it won't be the final Nintendo console. I mean if it actually (somehow) did worse then Wii-U - then why the heck would they even bother? Yes, they may have 8 or $10 Billion in cash (or whatever it is now) - but if the consoles are struggling to reach 10 Million units they may as well light that cash on fire. Shareholders want a return, they don't want the companies cash lit on fire.
Hopefully Nintendo have come up with something that will position themselves a bit more competitively then the Wii-U did. Even a 30 Million seller should guarantee them another gen, if it's competitive. But a 10 or 15 Million seller and I'm not sure how another home console could be justified.
Unless this is a $99 microconsole, it's not going to sell 30 million. If that's the minimum for another gen, they shouldn't even try because there's too much working against NX for it to sell that much. These upgrades are the nail in the coffin there, since they clearly didn't see them coming and as a result NX is underpowered. They need to use NX to set the stage for the future. Focus on short-term success and that's all you'll ever get in the best case. They need to use NX to diversify their output and appeal to the wider gaming audience. If done right, they should sell around 25 million and have a more third-party-friendly demographic. From there, they could target Xbox and try to push them out of the market, and we could see a cool 40 million each gen going forward if they maintain it. Just paying off third-parties for ports won't get them anywhere.
Also, if Nintendo listened that closely to shareholders we wouldn't be having this conversation because Wii U would have been enough for them to bow out of consoles, and 3DS's drop compared to DS would have pushed them to mobile-only. This is what investors have wanted since the rise of mobile gaming.
If you honestly think Nintendo would be happy with another console that only pulls Gamecube numbers then you need to do more research my friend. Nintendo was very displeased with how the Gamecube performed sales wise, so why would that change if the NX didn't fare any better?
You are also correct in saying that if they expect the NX to sell 30+ million units they shouldn't even bother, because its not likely going to happen. Yes, Nintendo is still delusional, so don't act surprised.
I didn't say anything about being happy. If this console selling under 30 mil can pave the way for one which sells much more, then it's worth it in the long run. You only keep the short-term in mind, and that's how you ensure that a business won't last very long. Riding on fads and trends is never a good long-term strategy for a multi-billion dollar corporation.
Also, couldn't your argument that they're delusional be used as a point against your argument of them dropping out of hardware for sure? That would mean that they're too unpredictable for you to be so certain.
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