Everyone's arguing over what defines the winner, yet I feel like we're all the losers right now as the scalpers buy up all the systems and we're getting zero exciting new gen releases
Lemmings think they actually have a chance to outsell the PS5 this entire gen. Hah. Like, they think the Xbox Series X will outsell the PS5 globally when it's all said and done.
So horrible! I only own 8 of the top 10 on the Nintendo List! Can you ever say the same for any Playstation list? I think not. (I know so horrible right?)
Did you look at the top 10 Sony list? Now THAT is what I call CRAP lol.
@sakaixx said:
Also PS4 version of Persona 5 Strikers carried the game to its high sales. Look at this awful Nintendo list, where them 3rd parties at? Eww those vocal minority port beggars dont even buy games on switch. 9 out of 10 is nintendo related and one uber casual ubisoft game. Blergh 3rd party is dead on Nintendo.
So horrible! I only own 8 of the top 10 on the Nintendo List! Can you ever say the same for any Playstation list? I think not. (I know so horrible right?)
Did you look at the top 10 Sony list? Now THAT is what I call CRAP lol.
@sakaixx said:
Also PS4 version of Persona 5 Strikers carried the game to its high sales. Look at this awful Nintendo list, where them 3rd parties at? Eww those vocal minority port beggars dont even buy games on switch. 9 out of 10 is nintendo related and one uber casual ubisoft game. Blergh 3rd party is dead on Nintendo.
Very happy the fanbase supported 3rd party even smaller ones like Little Nightmare 2 and Atlus Persona 5 Strikers getting very high sales on the system.
Too bad looking at these charts Nintendo Fans dont even support 3rd party games that actually came, so sad. What a terrible, casual fanbase.
It’s good to see the two Japanese console companies doing so well here in the US. I just feel really bad for MS and the Xbox fans, I really wished they could receive some form of good news , but I guess coming in 3rd place isn’t bad . In some countries coming in 3rd is just as good as coming in 1st place .
So horrible! I only own 8 of the top 10 on the Nintendo List! Can you ever say the same for any Playstation list? I think not. (I know so horrible right?)
Did you look at the top 10 Sony list? Now THAT is what I call CRAP lol.
@sakaixx said:
Also PS4 version of Persona 5 Strikers carried the game to its high sales. Look at this awful Nintendo list, where them 3rd parties at? Eww those vocal minority port beggars dont even buy games on switch. 9 out of 10 is nintendo related and one uber casual ubisoft game. Blergh 3rd party is dead on Nintendo.
Very happy the fanbase supported 3rd party even smaller ones like Little Nightmare 2 and Atlus Persona 5 Strikers getting very high sales on the system.
Too bad looking at these charts Nintendo Fans dont even support 3rd party games that actually came, so sad. What a terrible, casual fanbase.
On the Playstation top 10 we have 2 Call of Duty games, Minecraft, Fifa, NBA 2K21, and Assassin's Creed all in the top 10? Sounds like a sad, terrible, casual fanbase to me. Nice job!
Lemmings think they actually have a chance to outsell the PS5 this entire gen. Hah. Like, they think the Xbox Series X will outsell the PS5 globally when it's all said and done.
They never learn!
Considering the 360 trounced the PS3 everywhere except Japan, and the PS5 also seems to be DOA in Japan, it's not an unreasonable concept.
Nintendo 1st party is just way too powerful in comparison to the competition. It's the main reason to buy Nintendo systems. It's not a shock that nobody can crack that stranglehold. The competition consoles are dominated by 3rd parties and it's harder for those 1st parties to crack that type of stranglehold over on their own consoles. Its always been like this ever since the NES and Super NES generations ended.
@sakaixx: Well I did my part in buying 3rd party games Nintendo systems as I always do. Granted it has to be the right type of game that I'm looking for which are jrpgs but yes, I definitely Support 3rd parties however like I said Nintendo games are the best games on their platforms and it always shows time and time again in the sales charts.
wow mario 3d world has outsold spiderman, assassins creed, and madden this year? holy shit. a wiiU Port did that? i know the 3rd party games came out last year but still impressive
@sakaixx you got your hard earned money ready for monster hunter rise next week? oh yea! lol
@dabear: Only the US and UK. In every region outside the US and UK, the PS3 outsold the 360. Like I said before, US and UK are the only markets where Xbox has a chance against PlayStation.
@dabear: Only the US and UK. In every region outside the US and UK, the PS3 outsold the 360. Like I said before, US and UK are the only markets where Xbox has a chance against PlayStation.
If you sum up the totals, and exclude Japan, the 360 outsold the Ps3 by about 10 million. Only because the Xbox sold less than a million and the PS3 sold over 12 million, did the PS3 "catch up".
This gen, the PS5 is selling like crap in Japan, too.
So, it is not "crazy" to think the XSX could outsell the PS5 by the end of this gen.
@dabear: Again, the only markets won by 360 were US and UK. By that same logic, if we exclude the US, then PS3 won by a similarly wide margin.
PS5 and XSX are both selling like crap in Japan, that much is true. But the PS brand has grown overseas, which compensates for its loss of Japan.
XSX is currently trailing in its key territories, the US and UK. It needs to win them back if it wants a chance of upsetting PS5.
It doesn't - because in every other market, they were both competitive; meaning neither had a large margin of victory anywhere but Japan.
In Japan, the PS3 sold (I think) 11 million, while the 360 (again, this is going back) sold less than 1 million. No other market came close to the disparity in sales like Japan (If we were looking at statistic modeling, the Japanese market would have gotten tossed).
If you had taken the next closest market where the PS3 beat the 360, and applied those PS3-to-360 sales ratios to Japanese sales, the PS3's world totals would have been several million less than the 360. It was only by the 11:1 margin of victory in Japan that the PS3 caught up "world-wide."
So, back to topic. Without Japan being such a ridiculously huge projected win for the PS5, it is not a fallacious assertation for someone to think the XSX could outsell the PS5 world wide; considering neither console is selling well or projected to sell well in Japan.
@dabear: Again, the only markets won by 360 were US and UK. By that same logic, if we exclude the US, then PS3 won by a similarly wide margin.
PS5 and XSX are both selling like crap in Japan, that much is true. But the PS brand has grown overseas, which compensates for its loss of Japan.
XSX is currently trailing in its key territories, the US and UK. It needs to win them back if it wants a chance of upsetting PS5.
It doesn't - because in every other market, they were both competitive; meaning neither had a large margin of victory anywhere but Japan.
In Japan, the PS3 sold (I think) 11 million, while the 360 (again, this is going back) sold less than 1 million. No other market came close to the disparity in sales like Japan (If we were looking at statistic modeling, the Japanese market would have gotten tossed).
If you had taken the next closest market where the PS3 beat the 360, and applied those PS3-to-360 sales ratios to Japanese sales, the PS3's world totals would have been several million less than the 360. It was only by the 11:1 margin of victory in Japan that the PS3 caught up "world-wide."
So, back to topic. Without Japan being such a ridiculously huge projected win for the PS5, it is not a fallacious assertation for someone to think the XSX could outsell the PS5 world wide; considering neither console is selling well or projected to sell well in Japan.
Your argument is mathematically and statistically flawed. Local market ratios mean nothing on a global scale. It's the raw sales numbers that count.
360 beat PS3 in the US by around the same margin that PS3 beat 360 in Japan:
USA - 360 led by 8.7M margin
Japan - PS3 led by 9.5M margin
If you exclude both US and Japan, PS3 would still be ahead in worldwide sales.
While PS5 and XSX are both doing poorly in Japan, you're ignoring the fact that PS5 is beating XSX in its own US backyard. If XSX can't even beat PS5 in its own US backyard, then there's very little chance it could beat PS5 worldwide.
@Jag85: No sir, they are not. You have n number of groups, and group n(4) has data far outside the norm, you remove it from your sample. If your samples are 2:4, 3:2, 4:3, and 11:1; clearly, clearly the 11:1 would be excluded. That's how statistics analysis works.
The numbers you posted are what mathematicians call "slanted statistics", because it doesn't show the whole story.
go look for yourself
If you can't see that the Japanese market total ratios are a statistical anomaly, please stop posting. For Japan to be on par with the other territories, the Xbox 360 should have sold at least 5 million more units in Japan.
The whole point of this topic is the XSX outselling the PS5. Without Japan drastically swinging to camp PlayStation, that is a possibility.
@dabear: That's not how statistics, probability or geography works in the real world. The PS3 literally outsold the 360 in every single major territory outside of the US. The statistical anomaly is the US, not Japan. The PS3 outsold in Asia, Europe, Canada and Australia. Its victory in Japan is consistent with nearly every other major market. The only difference is the margin of victory, which is irrelevant on a global scale. The PS3 had a hometown advantage in Japan and 360 had hometown advantage in US. If you want to be consistent, you'd have to remove both US and Japan from the data set. Which would still put PS3 ahead.
Again, you're ignoring the hometown advantage. The US is Xbox hometown, yet it's losing to PS5 in the US. If it can't even win in its biggest home market, it has very little chance to do so internationally. 360 previously won the US, but lost in every other major market. But now the XSX is losing even in the US. So there's very little chance of XSX beating PS5 globally.
You can think of it like an election. Sony is now leading in every major region. There's not a single major region where Xbox leads, so it's very unlikely it can pull off a victory. In order to do so, it would need to swing a few major regions to its side. Its best bet was the US, its most successful territory in the past, but now it's lost the US to Sony as well. You're not being realistic if you think XSX can win globally without winning its most important market (the US). PS5 doesn't need Japan nearly as much as the Xbox needs the US.
P.S. VGChartz is an unreliable source. That doesn't help your argument. If that's your source, then you have no real argument.
@Jag85: Why are you still arguing this? Dude, your wrong - read what I wrote, look at the link I included, and stop making yourself look the fool. What I described is exactly how statistical modeling works. I should know, I am also a data scientist. To me, your argument is as fallacious as someone trying to argue that the moon is made of blue cheese.
Its not about actual sales - it's about sales models. The actual units sold don't matter as much as the ratios. And, if you look at the ratios, the 360 and PS3 were quite close in the average of all markets; providing you exclude Japan. The US market is not outside the statistical pattern; only Japan is. If you gave Japan the same ratio as the US, but flipped which console sold what, the 360 would have won world wide by 5 million units.
You are arguing this with me from a point of ignorance - you obviously do not understand basic statistical modeling. That's fine, and I am not trying to belittle you, but please stop arguing something with me when you don't have a fundamental understanding of the underlining concepts.
I don't think anyone, not even Microsoft, thinks there's a chance of the Xbox outselling the PS5. Probably they won't care either. To be honest, in all my life I've never been on a business meeting where beating a competing business even came into conversation. Looking at competitors and try to learn from them? Sure, absolutely. Saying that "we must make more than X or else we're a failure"? Never.
Companies should focus on their business model and achieve growth through it. Just that.
@Jag85: Why are you still arguing this? Dude, your wrong - read what I wrote, look at the link I included, and stop making yourself look the fool. What I described is exactly how statistical modeling works. I should know, I am also a data scientist. To me, your argument is as fallacious as someone trying to argue that the moon is made of blue cheese.
Its not about actual sales - it's about sales models. The actual units sold don't matter as much as the ratios. And, if you look at the ratios, the 360 and PS3 were quite close in the average of all markets; providing you exclude Japan. The US market is not outside the statistical pattern; only Japan is. If you gave Japan the same ratio as the US, but flipped which console sold what, the 360 would have won world wide by 5 million units.
You are arguing this with me from a point of ignorance - you obviously do not understand basic statistical modeling. That's fine, and I am not trying to belittle you, but please stop arguing something with me when you don't have a fundamental understanding of the underlining concepts.
You're making a fool of yourself by using VGChartz as your source. VGChartz numbers are not actual confirmed sales figures, but they're just baseless guesstimates. Your statistical model falls apart if the data set is faulty to begin with. I should know, because I'm qualified statistician. Your argument is fallacious, not only because you rely on faulty data, but also resort to fallacies like appeal to authority and baseless ad hominem attacks because your argument is faulty.
The discussion is about actual unit sales, not ratios. Your "sales model" is extremely outdated and therefore useless for any predictions. The Japanese market today is nowhere near as relevant to modern console sales as it was a decade ago. Out of the PS4's 113.6 million sales, Japan only contributed 9.3 million, just 8% of its sales. Excluding Japan would not have made any difference to the PS4, which would have beaten Xbone by a wide margin regardless.
The PS4 didn't need Japan, nor does the PS5 need Japan either. Excluding Japan this gen isn't going to magically give the Series X a solid chance of beating PS5. The probability of XSX beating PS5 is very low. You'd have to be a delusional fanboy, and ignore the last decade of statistical sales trends, to believe the XSX has a solid chance of beating PS5. Fat chance of that happening.
Territories mean nothing? Territories mean everything, global sales are just a nice summary.
To say "actual sales is everything" without concerning market share, is probably the most ridiculous comment you have made so far.
My argument is not faulty at all. It's sound statistical analysis. And, considering we are on the 9th generation of consoles, and you are betting everything (prediction wise) on just what happened in the 8th only, really speaks volumes about your analysis.
No, the PS4 did not need Japan last gen to "win", but it still sold about the same in Japan in the 8th gen as it did in the 7th. If you think that a 10 million drop in sales (Sony not needing Japan) is not a big deal... wow.
I did not use VGChartz for exact figures, I used it for general sales trends, which is completely valid.
Did you have to look up ad hominem? LOL.
And just to show how ridiculous you are being (yes, you are being utterly ridiculous), if I were to bet, I'd say the PS5 would win this gen, because even with excluding Japan, it's 2-1 against the Xbox, with the market share significantly swayed in Sony's direction.
But, that still doesn't mean people who think the XSX will outsell the PS5 are crazy.
Here are the latest PS5 and Series S/X lifetime sales in Japan.
PlayStation 5 – 433,545
PlayStation 5 Digital Edition – 84,371
Xbox Series X – 30,204
Xbox Series S – 8,526
PS5 sold about 500,000 units, Series S / X sold about 40,000 units in Japan. This ratio is 12: 1, which is a margin similar to that of PS3 v. 360 in Japan.
Looking at global sales, Sony sold 4.5 million PS5 worldwide (Q3 FY2020). This means that Japan accounts for about 11% of the 4.5 million units, which is no different from Japan's share of PS4's global sales. (There is a few months gap between Sony's official total and the latest sales in Japan, but even considering that, the ratio won't change much.)
These two points indicate that your premise "the PS5 is selling like crap in Japan" is not true and you should redo the calculation. (However, I emphasize the fact that the PS4 sold better than the Xbox One even without Japan, as Jag85 says.)
Strawman. I never said "territories mean nothing". My point is the exact opposite, that all territories matter. You can't just pick-and-choose which territories matter and which don't. They all contribute to the global total.
Another strawman. I never said "actual sales is everything" either. The problem is that your argument rests on the sales ratio of a single country that only represents a small percentage of the global home console market. The global market share is determined by the collective unit sales of all territories combined, not the ratios of individual countries.
You are betting everything on what happened in Gen 7 only, which was a decade ago. That speaks volumes about your "statistical analysis." If you want to take all generations into account, then PS has a track record of beating Xbox globally for three generations in a row. Your sales model falls apart if you add any data outside of Gen 7 into it, which shows it was a faulty sales model suffering from confirmation bias.
A 10M drop wouldn't be enough to swing the global results in Microsoft's favour. For it to matter, PS5 and XSX would have to be close (as was the case with the PS3 and 360). But so far, PS5 is outselling XSX by a wide margin worldwide.
Sales trends need to be based on reliable figures for a sales model to actually matter, or else it's faulty. A statistical model needs to be based on unbiased representative real-world data for it to have any real predictive powers, or else it's just going to keep making faulty predictions, as we've seen time and again from data analysists who keep getting it wrong, e.g. Michael Pachter predictions, VGChartz projections, Brexit vote, Trump election, etc.
I've been using the term "ad hominem" on this board for probably about a decade now. Usually in reference to people who desperately resort to personal attacks when their argument starts falling apart. Trying to personally attack the opposition isn't going to help your argument... unless it's politics, in which case ad hominem attacks can be an effective propaganda tool.
No one is saying people who believe XSX will win are crazy for believing this. It's only natural to want your fave to win (my all-time fave Sega has never won a console generation globally, just like MS). The point is that the probability of such an event happening is very low. In statistics and probabilty, there is no such thing as the probability of an event being 100% impossible. Anything is possible. The chance of XSX winning is not impossible, but it is improbable.
@Jag85: I am not going to read your wall of text. Sorry. A brief readthrough shows a lot of nothing.
You are still incorrect or ignorant... take your pick because I am out. You keep thinking the moon is made of blue cheese, Mr. Sciolist.
No cap, I find the whole "tl;dr" thing to be dismissive and proof you lost. It literally means "I don't have enough information to refute your points, so I'm going to act like you wrote an essay to bow out." I've had that said to me when I legit wrote like 8 or 9 sentences (two paragraphs).
@Jag85: I am not going to read your wall of text. Sorry. A brief readthrough shows a lot of nothing.
You are still incorrect or ignorant... take your pick because I am out. You keep thinking the moon is made of blue cheese, Mr. Sciolist.
No cap, I find the whole "tl;dr" thing to be dismissive and proof you lost. It literally means "I don't have enough information to refute your points, so I'm going to act like you wrote an essay to bow out." I've had that said to me when I legit wrote like 8 or 9 sentences (two paragraphs).
Cool story, bro.
BTW, *that* is dismissive.
I didn't read it because he keeps rehashing the same talking points. Perhaps I am doing the same, so I share blame... Anyway, no one is going to change the other's mind, so what is the point? I actually *did* go back to one of my college stats books and make sure I wasn't incorrectly stating my case (I wasn't); I doubt Jag85 did the same if he owns any.
So, since I can't argue that 1 + 1 = 2 anymore than knowing it's the case (I know there's some psychology term for that), I bow out and focus elsewhere. If that is "dismissive", so be it.
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