How much do you see the NX realistically selling?

I'm going with 6-8 million, tops.

The Nintendo name brand is not as strong as people think anymore (not one Nintendo game charted NPD 2015) and people (people who don't visit game forums) are perfectly fine with MS or Sony being their console providers.

Top selling games like The Divison, Destiny, CoD, GTA, 2K,AC etc are not seen as games that would release on Nintendo consoles, Nintendo has a strong family friend image still.

Not to mention they are yet to have an Online service like that of Sony or MS that offers various entertainment options for consumers. Pretty much a majority of the relevant games of last gen WERE not on Nintendo consoles and we now have a generation of teens and kids who DO NOT know the Nintendo of old nor did they grow up with them. It's all about Playstation or Xbox now, if I'm lying ask around.

Mario NSMB, 3D World, Splatoon, Hyrule Warriors, Smash 4, Pikmin 3, and Mario Kart still failed to take the console over the 14 million mark, this indicates only the hardcore fans still care about these games. Yet consoles with little for exclusives like the X1 or PS4 are outselling it by a mile.

The 16-35 demographic considers Nintendo to be family friendly and not as edgy or mature as MS or Sony, this is not something that just changes all of a sudden either.

Doesn't help that NX is launching from a console with ZERO momentum mid-gen.

vs

Nintendo has fallen so far from this kind of marketing.

I'm ready

No idea.

I have no visual concept of what this console is.

Might be VR Boy for all i know, but even saying that now might be a compliment.

How?

30-35 million. N64/Xbox One levels.

Mostly because, while all your points hold true now, I don't think they necessarily will once the NX launches.

Why wouldn't they hold true even once the NX launches?

The PS4 and Xbox One have a strong year and Sony and MS can just drop the price + they have established libraries and developed online services.

Casuals know that they can get there GTA, 2K, CoD fix on a Playstation or Xbox and top of knowing they can play with friends with voice chat, group chat, and all the other things they take for granted, not so much in Nintendo's case.

In Nintendo's case they are launching mid gen and people are cautious especially after the Wii U.

The issue with selling N64 levels is Nintendo has more competition, its just not just Sony, but MS now.

The Wii U launched a year earlier and nobody jumped on it even with its strong 3rd party launch line up. This is despite last gen being drawn out and people craving new consoles.

The marketing for Nintendo is so much cringe.

Thinking of the NX is an obsession for you.

Yeah because it's make or break for Nintendo, if it flops expect to see them making games on your phone primarily.

• The perception issue is a marketing problem- as we have seen before multiple times, perception can be and has been turned around with marketing. My assumption is Nintendo changes their marketing track with the NX
• The online services argument no longer holds, given that Nintendo have explicitly enlisted the help of an external company with network services experience to help them with the NX.
• Third parties largely seem to be on board with the NX, so it should get your NBA, FIFA, Call of Duty, and Assassin's Creed every year
• Most regular mainstream customers are not even aware of the Wii U to be cautious of Nintendo because of it
• The one point you made which I think may have some traction is the mid generation launch- but even there, I think the launches of PSVR/PS4K will help Nintendo, because together, the NX and PS4K can effectively constitute a mid generation soft reset.
• With all of this said, the PS4's momentum is massive, which is why I think an N64 level success is the most that Nintendo can hope for- with that said, I don't think that's necessarily a bad result for Nintendo. As I wrote here:

Imagine, for a minute, that the NX sells in the range of 35-55 million over its lifetime- a dramatic increase over the dismal performance of the Wii U, but in the same range as the lifetime sales of the Nintendo 64, the Genesis, the Super Nintendo, and the projected sales of the Xbox One. This is an amount far lower than what the PS4’s lifetime sales will likely be, and also, naturally, achieved at a rate far slower than the PS4’s sales.

However, also imagine that the NX is a system that manages to regain Nintendo some wider industry third party support, western and Japanese, that it manages to rebuild an audience for traditional AAA games on Nintendo systems, that it attracts people beyond the traditional Nintendo fans into buying it, that it manages to lock people into and solidify Nintendo’s online network and digital offerings- in other words, it is a system that firmly makes Nintendo competitive in the console space again, and lays the groundwork for a future Nintendo console to realistically go toe to toe with future Xbox and PlayStation systems. Is this a console that would in any way be deemed a failure by Nintendo, just because it failed to clear the PS4’s bar? Would it be deemed a failure by the third parties who are now selling their games on it, to a brand new audience that they didn’t have access to before? Would it be deemed a failure by the players who buy it, and who can now enjoy Nintendo’s world class in house efforts, as well as most major third party games, all on one system? Is the NX, in this scenario, a failure, simply because it didn’t sell as well as the PS4?

The answer, obviously, is of course not. Not only is the PS4 a stupendous sales success that it is unreasonable to expect other machines to match, but sales are just one metric by which success is judged- and especially for a system like the NX, the larger context is very important in judging its overall success. The NX may go on to outsell the PS4, it may be another Wii-like phenomenon. But that kind of success would be short lived, and would be even more harmful to Nintendo in the long run than the Wii was. With the NX, Nintendo would rather look at reversing the steady decline of their console audience, at getting third parties back into the fold, at pushing their network offerings, at selling games,and at laying a secure foundation for future machines to build off of. It will hardly matter if it doesn’t sell as much as the PS4 in that context.

Just my takeaway from the situation- while there is every bit the possibility that Nintendo does in fact screw up again, early indications of the NX appear to be positive, and I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt until they prove me wrong with the reveal.

They said that about the N64, Gamecube, DS and Wii U. What makes this situation any different?

It's not unrealistic to assume that another failed system may lead Nintendo to actually going third party this time around- however, with that said, i don't think them going third party would be phone games as much as it would be phone games and high end console and PC games, both. Just like any other third party on the market.

Really? Sony has been known for games like GTA and Xbox has been known for games like Halo...ever since there existance.

While Nintendo is not a kiddy company they are seen as such, it's been like this for a long time.

As for Nintendo's online people will still be cautious, there online on the Wii U and Wii was atrocious (the Wii U was a step in the right direction) to the say the least.

The mainstream casual knows about the Wii U, its been 4 years and with games like Smash (played a lot of people's family or friends houses) or Mario Kart on top of the ads on TV and in theaters people know what it is. It's the internet age man.

N64 level is nigh unachievable bro, the Wii U came out first and sold horribly in the age where games are no longer considered taboo or only for nerds or geeks who want to stay in all day. The perception of gaming is much different now and even with that on MS, Sony, and Nintendo's side it still managed to be one of their worst selling consoles of all time.

Mid gen, lack of consumer confidence or care....really, mainstream games on their system won't really matter since people can just buy them on their Xbox or PS4 and as you can already see Nintendo's first party doesn't have the "pull" anymore.

@brah4ever: Yes, they are seen as such explicitly because they market to children. For instance, they could, even with their first party properties alone, market to an older demographic easily, with games like Zelda and Metroid. They choose to downplay their mature angle and instead cater to children.

Sony are known for properties like GTA and Metal Gear, but here's a secret- those are third party games. If Nintendo gets third party support on the NX, then there is no reason they could not play up their own mature games and the third party mature games to cater to mature audiences, while also using properties like Mario to cater to younger ones- not unlike how Sony can use The Last of Us to appeal to the teen or adult gamer, and Ratchet and Clank or LittleBigPlanet to cater to the young gamer.

Worst case scenario they just give up on consoles and focus on handhelds. I wouldn't have much of a problem with that either.

I don't think they will do that- handhelds are a rapidly contracting market with no long term stability or opportunities for growth. I imagine if they exit hardware, they exit hardware entirely, and focus on making low end, high yield efforts for mobile, as well as high end games for consoles and PC.

Of course, I also don't think the NX will necessarily fail, so there is that to consider too.

Nintendo had handhelds to fall back on from the N64 - GC era (both good era for games on those consoles but sales could have been better).

Phones are eating away at 3DS sales which is why it hasn't even reached half of the original DS sales.

Wii U flopped, and when/if the NX flops Nintendo will wonder if it's really worth staying in a market where the consumers are saying "gtfo".

Yeah and due to that image they have the 16-35 demographic see's mature games on their consoles as a kind of shock when it happens.

Even if Nintendo does get those mainstream AAA titles people will be like I don't really care for Nintendo games and I already have an Xbox or Playstation where most of my friends are, or dear I say it...cool kids play at. Nintendo has never been considered cool really, like ever.

Sony is known for that console where GTA 3 and San Andreas were on and Xbox is known for where something like Halo or Forza was, this in the perspective of the kids who growing up today. Nintendo is known for that console has Mario (they have a lot more than that), this is has been a huge issue for them in the eye of the general public.

Playing Bayonetta 2 for example, a lot of my friends were like how is a game like this on a Nintendo console?

Even if they change from that perception, people will still think of them as being that company or who makes Pokemon, Kirby, and Mario, I like both of those games and they are deep but to the average person they are kid games.

There is still a very viable handheld gaming market, even with smartphones. They could easily make games for both, and with the current tech the games would look fantastic and save the company tons of Yen. I don't think their pride would allow them to develop games for Sony or Microsoft consoles.

Again, it's a marketing thing. The demographic believes that because Nintendo's marketing exclusively plays up the kids game angle- consider that Nintendo did have multiple mature games on the Wii U, such as Bayonetta, or Xenoblade, or Fatal Frame, and that they never marketed any of them. The demographic has no reason to believe that Nintendo has mature games because everything they know and have been told tells them otherwise.

As I keep saying, it comes down to marketing- presuming Nintendo switches their marketing track for the NX, they could easily reverse that perception. Xenoblade, Metroid, Zelda, Smash, plus playing up third party games like Call of Duty or Destiny could and very easily will reverse that perception- Nintendo just needs to commit to the core console demographic with the NX, because the expanded audience they were chasing is no longer interested in buying a console, while the kids audience also mostly gets by fine with phones and tablets.

They'd probably go mobile or pull out entirely.

With Nintendo pushing Amiibo's' which are essentially just toys, do you really believe Nintendo is going to pull a 180 and become a more edgy Sony/MS type company?

That would be shocking.

Even if they somehow reverse their perception they are still launching from a console with zero momentum with all the mainstream AAA games already being available elsewhere.

Where is the incentive to the gamer who does not like Nintendo's games to go buy one on top of a probably price drop by MS/Sony when most likely all there friends and family are on Xbox or Playstation on top of those having the games they are looking for with the little addition of something like Gears or Uncharted thrown in. Bayonetta, Fatal Frame, and Xenoblade are extremely niche and don't sell consoles.

Nope, as I said, they'd continue to make handheld systems and games along with mobile counterparts. They are the only company who knows how to do handhelds right.

No, they won't become a Sony or MS type company (not least because Sony and MS both project very different images with PlayStation and Xbox from each other anyway, so there is no one single 'Sony/MS type')

They'll just become a company that can appeal to the 16-35 demographic as well- I don't see them appealing to it as well as Sony, not right away, which is, again, why I predicted 30-35 million lifetime sales for the console- but I do predict them starting to turn around their perception with their marketing a bit, and I think sales of the NX will start reflecting those, laying down a foundation for future Nintendo consoles to build off of.

Remember, Nintendo have been openly contemptuous of the kinds of casual audiences that bought the Wii of late, suggesting a change in targeted demographics with the NX.

With having no idea on what it is, I have no idea how much it will sell.

Nintendo only became nintendo of today because of last gen, before that they were an allround system. It's true that they did have a more family friendly image but don't forget they had very mature games, resident evil 4 for instance and that was back then an exclusive.

It will all depend what the hardware in this console will be, if it will be stonger than the ps4 and x1, you can be sure it will compete with sony and ms on every level (well maybe not vr).

If that's not the case, then I presume they will focus on mobile , maybe the console will be a streaming machine of some sort , who knows, we don't know much at this time, so all we can do is make an educated guess.

Since they have patent for cloud systems, it could very well be the console is a hub for cloud processing which in turn caters mobile systems. Or it could be a cloud based console. Either way, the more I hear from it the more I think this thing is going to flop, nintendo is still thinking they can pull a wii, which is a system than everyone buys and is very cheap to make but has hardly any games because it has no third party support.

If they launched around the same period of whenever Ninth gen starts I'd agree but launching mid gen is a huge risk.

Sony and MS as I've said have established libraries, online services, and they have the games the casuals want. Them dropping the price of their consoles to $250 (with a bundle) will hurt the NX.

Kids aren't asking for Nintendo consoles these days, its I want an Xbox or a Playstation followed by them grabbing CoD and playing whatever "mature" game is out with the bros online.

I agree (my avatar is from RE4 GC), but to the younger generation who were born in the 2000s, they know of Nintendo as the Wii.

The consoles that plays Wii Sports and some random party games.

None of that CoD, 2K, GTA, AC, or whatever franchise sold well last gen.

The Wii was made up of an audience who never played games who later moved to smartphones and tablets (they are fickle) and if some of the gamers did buy it they moved on to the 360 or PS3 as those were getting the hardcore games they were looking for on top of XBL and PSN.

Which, as I have already said, I think the launch of PS4K will give the NX some reprieve, because it essentially means there is a mid generation reset- the NX is competing now with PS4 and Xbox One, it is competing with PS4K and if Microsoft put out that Xbox One Elite, that.

Which, again, comes back to marketing, where I think I have made a sufficient case that they can and probably will change track with the demographics they target.

We're going around in circles now.

seeing how quick Nintendo was to pull the plug on the Wii U, I don't think I'll be buying one anytime soon

though, just depends really, I don't think I'll get one if they go beefcake console route as I don't think they're going to lure third parties with that, or people who buy third party games

though, I do think if they do hybrid device that's something I could get behind to help in their endeavors to pioneer that, depending on the deets, we'll have to wait and see

The PS4K is not confirmed and Sony is aware of the risk (it won't probably won't happen), devs already mentioned it would make games more of a pain the ass to the develop than they already are, it would also confuse consumers. All of which Sony has no need to because the PS4 is selling like hot cakes for whatever reason.

This is how he, I and a lot of people out there feel.

The PS4K is as leaked as the NX itself is.

If you want to ignore all evidence that points to the NX actually doing well, and instead focus singularly on (outdated and inaccurate) suppositions for why it will not, then you are free to do so, but there is no discussion to be had here, then.

yeah, Nintendo was on fire until (for me) up until end of 2014, they were getting celebrated for coming back and delivering quality games, then they got an ego and decided to coast the rest of the generation

The ps4 is selling like hotcakes because it's the strongest system, the fact that more people buying a ps4 over an x1 or wii u is even making the sales higher. If all your friends have a ps4 , you will buy a ps4 as well.

The ps4k could be good to compete with nx and be better system for vr. I don't understand why devs make such a fuzz about his, i mean the ps4 is basically a pc, and there you have all settings to change on the fly, how hard can it be to just increase resolution.

They should not call it the ps4k though, maybe ps4 elite or something but I don't think they will release a ps4k just to compete with the nx, if they release it, it's going to be because of vr.

I'm not sure where you getting evidence on the Wii U doing well when its proven exclusives don't matter anymore and 3rd party game sell consoles.

If 3rd party games on the NX do not sell which historically on the Nintendo consoles they don't do you really believe it will still receive them?

Before you bring up the power argument, RE Remaster HD, Transformers Devastation are just a few among the many of games which could run on the Wii U but still didn't get released on it.

The Wii U got support from EA, Ubi, Activison etc and it all dried up once the sales were low.

They are burning a lot of Wii U owners who know the Wii U never really hit its stride, it literally only has Nintendo games coming out on it.

So with the burning the Wii U owners, not being known for over 2 GENs of having the major mainstream titles, an online service comparable to XBL or PSN, or games like Gears or Uncharted being provided on their consoles, ON TOP of the family perception which is hard to shake, ON Top of Sony and MS just dropping the prices on their consoles with the addition of a bundle things are looking for the NX?

Oh yeah, launching mid gen too...with all that said things are looking just grrreat for the NX.

???

In 2014, Nintendo put out Bayonetta 2, Smash Bros. 4, Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze, and Mario Kart 8.

In 2015, they put out Splatoon, Super Mario Maker, Yoshi's Woolly World, Xenoblade Chronicles X, in addition to smaller games like Fatal Frame V, Devil's Third, Kirby and the Rainbow Curse, and Mario Party 10.

In 2016, they have put out The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess HD and Pokken Tournament already, with Star Fox Zero coming up this week, and Paper Mario and Zelda (at the very least) planned for the remaining year.

Where exactly is this drop off in their output that you say there was?

When did I say the Wii U is doing well?

The evidence is that all early indications and rumors so far hint at the NX getting major third party support- the rumors could be wrong, or that could change later, but we can only make an assessment right now based on what we know.

Yes, because the Wii U was dropped like a sack of hot potatoes once it failed like it did by third parties (and it was never too supported by them to begin with).

They supported the Wii U for four years straight with their own games, single handedly. They did as well as they reasonably could have been expected to do. It's losing them money, it's time to move on to a more profitable venture, which the NX hopefully will be,

Incidentally, I like how you suddenly changed your central argument mid thread once lamprey (erroneously) pointed out Nintendo's premature(?) termination for support for their console- almost as though your other points had been disproven, so you pounced on whatever did come your way.

Well if the ps4 is selling so well because of the hardware power, nintendo could really change things up with a good exclusive that make use of stronger hardware.

I hope that would be the case but I fear they going to try something exotic again, which will probably fail. I don't know, it's some kind of premonition i have, I thought the wii u was going to be a super strong system and it wasn't at all, I really hope they prove me wrong, the industry can use it.

The games you named were like literally the only games that released on Wii U in a span of 12 months for each particular year.

Devils Third and Kirby flopped review wise.

None of those moved units aside from Smash and Kart to an extent and most would be considered safe sequels outside of Splatoon or Xenoblade X.

Xbox and Gamecube were stronger than Playstation 2 and yet it outsold both.

That isn't even the point- lamprey claims that Nintendo dropped support for Wii U after 2014, when that is categorically not true, they continued supporting the system, and still are to this day. So his claims of 'Nintendo dropped support for it prematurely' don't hold- they gave it a full four year lifespan (which, I feel like reminding you, is the same as the original Xbox, and the Xbox 360 did just fine).

Incidentally Splatoon and Super Mario Maker also sold Wii Us- as a matter of fact, Wii U sold more in 2015 than it did in 2014, indicating Splatoon especially, and Super Mario Maker were more effective at selling Wii Us than Kart or Smash were. Shocking, I know.

EDIT: Super Mario Maker is a safe sequel? Pokken is a safe sequel? Hell, Yoshi is a safe sequel?

Less than 5 million.

Do you realize that the amount of games the Xbox received in that time span literally blows the Wii U out of the water?

Microsoft was firing out their own first party games (Crimson Skies, Halo, Mech Assault, Fable,etc all new ips) and most 3rd party companies firing out games for the Xbox left and right while Xbox version being best versions (online, framerate, graphics) of those games as well.

The Wii U is a console that only gives Nintendo games while having 3-4 games a year, its pretty pathetic.

Okay, and...?

Your original arguments were that Nintendo's marketing is catered towards kids and that the NX won't have third party support. I argued those down, and the next argument was that I may have had a point had the NX not been launching mid generation. I argued that down, and the new one is that Wii U owners feel burned and won't support Nintendo by purchasing the NX- incidentally, not an argument that can be supported or substantiated outside of anecdotes (the Wii U's low sales indicate that those who bought it knew what they were getting into when they purchased it, and that they got what they expected- a secondary box to play Nintendo games). I can raise you multiple posters, such as champ, Conan, and I, who feel the Wii U is the best console of the generation so far, meaning we are satisfied by it, against your anecdote involving lamprey- so we're at an impasse there.

So what's your next argument going to be? How are you going to shift the goalposts now?

Yeah but that were different times, it's really not comparable, sony was untouchable back then because of the playstation one, and the ps2 released sooner than the xbox and the gamecube.

This in a time that the technology of 3d games were advancing in an incredible rate, people that played on console were waiting for a new console and it was already way overdue, games like halflife and unreal were incredibly succesfull on the pc but the ps1, n64 and saturn were just not strong enough to run it. These games release in 1997, the ps2 only released in 2000, people were really not going to wait another year to play this games on a console.

Not to mention you had to be tech savvy back then to get your way around a pc, windows 95-98 was really not as user friendly as todays operating systems. Building a pc wasn't that easy too, buying a game pc back then was paying top dollar if it was prebuild even more so than today. The internet was also pretty young back then and if you had a problem with something it wasn't always that easy to find the solution, there was no youtube as well.

If you wanted to play a 3d game with a controller, good luck configuring that one, the pc was the system with the mouse and keyboard.

Still hardware power has always been a big factor even in that gen, the xbox came out of nowhere and took a big bite out of the console market pie, simply because it was so much stronger. It laid the foundation for the succes of the x360.

No one ever said the Wii U wasn't good or the best, insecure much?

To us bros on a video game forum yeah there games are sweet but to the average game WHO are nothing like us and don't care about what goes into games or how they made they could care less about Nintendo. They care about what's "hot" or consider "cool" among the masses, especially so in this day in age with the social media boom.

The Wii U has best exclusive games out right now compared to the other two but unfortunately those do not sell consoles and we are talking about sales here, not quality of games.

Okay, good, so we return to proper third party support and good marketing, which evidence indicates the NX will have, which in turn means your concerns, going by the information, whatever little of it we do have right now, are unfounded.

Good talk.

Third part support can and probably will dry up fast as the NX versions won't be the only ones, PC, XB1, and PS4 all of which already exist and will sell more.

When was the last time Nintendo had good marketing?

This?

@brah4ever: Again the same arguments.

I encourage you to read posts I have made previously in this thread to get my same responses to the same arguments that you are making.

You claim evidence when there is pretty much no evidence that 3rd party support will last when historically it hasn't (check the Wii U).