How much do you see the NX realistically selling?

I never said it will last. I said indications right now are it will have third party support.

I am not in the habit of making unfounded speculations about something the very existence of which is so nebulous. In the future, the NX may lose third party support. It may not. Before that, the NX may first have third party support. It may not. It may be a games system. It may not. It may be a handheld. It may not.

I'm not going to get into degrees and layers of speculation, unfounded speculation at that. I go by at least some grounded suppositions- current information, such as there is, indicates the NX will have third party support in at least decent amounts. That is the extent of ground I am willing to concede to speculations- you want to argue the NX, a system currently unannounced and that we know nothing of beyond that it exists in some form, may lose third party support two, three, four, ten years after its release, because it may have bad marketing, because it may fail to appeal to anyone beyond kids, meaning it may sell just 5-6 million units... well, you're free to do that.

What leads you to believe this will be possible when its proven that exclusives no longer sell consoles and the Wii U not breaking the 14 million mark?

I imagine the NX competes with the PS4K and the Xbox One Elite (if that even exists), for the next 4-5 years- then, when gen 9 proper begins (if it begins- we could just be on a path of iterative consoles from now on), Nintendo releases an NX successor to compete with the PS5 and the Xbox Two on time this time.

The NX will probably not sell more than 35 million units, I do agree with you on that. However, that said, I don't necessarily think that is a failure. As I wrote here:

Imagine, for a minute, that the NX sells in the range of 35-55 million over its lifetime- a dramatic increase over the dismal performance of the Wii U, but in the same range as the lifetime sales of the Nintendo 64, the Genesis, the Super Nintendo, and the projected sales of the Xbox One. This is an amount far lower than what the PS4’s lifetime sales will likely be, and also, naturally, achieved at a rate far slower than the PS4’s sales.

However, also imagine that the NX is a system that manages to regain Nintendo some wider industry third party support, western and Japanese, that it manages to rebuild an audience for traditional AAA games on Nintendo systems, that it attracts people beyond the traditional Nintendo fans into buying it, that it manages to lock people into and solidify Nintendo’s online network and digital offerings- in other words, it is a system that firmly makes Nintendo competitive in the console space again, and lays the groundwork for a future Nintendo console to realistically go toe to toe with future Xbox and PlayStation systems. Is this a console that would in any way be deemed a failure by Nintendo, just because it failed to clear the PS4’s bar? Would it be deemed a failure by the third parties who are now selling their games on it, to a brand new audience that they didn’t have access to before? Would it be deemed a failure by the players who buy it, and who can now enjoy Nintendo’s world class in house efforts, as well as most major third party games, all on one system? Is the NX, in this scenario, a failure, simply because it didn’tsell as well as the PS4?

The answer, obviously, is of course not. Not only is the PS4 a stupendous sales success that it is unreasonable to expect other machines to match, but sales are just one metric by which success is judged- and especially for a system like the NX, the larger context is very important in judging its overall success. The NX may go on to outsell the PS4, it may be another Wii-like phenomenon. But that kind of success would be short lived, and would be even more harmful to Nintendo in the long run than the Wii was. With the NX, Nintendo would rather look at reversing the steady decline of their console audience, at getting third parties back into the fold, at pushing their network offerings, at selling games,and at laying a secure foundation for future machines to build off of. It will hardly matter if it doesn’t sell as much as the PS4 in that context.

I think the NX is meant to be more of a long term ploy- as long as it isn't a Wii U or Gamecube level failure, Nintendo will be happy as long as it gets them a foot in the door.

@charizard1605: I also really liked Hyrule Warriors and Captain Toad, both of which I really enjoyed

though nothing in the 2015 line-up really appealed to me outside of Fatal Frame V which they didn't put on disc so I didn't get

I'd of maybe tried Splatoon but I couldn't find on a Black Friday special, that's about where I am with Star Fox and Twilight Princess HD as well but they need to come down a bit, about the only game I'll pay asking price for on the Wii U at this point is Legend of Zelda Wii U

I don't regret getting the system, just it only seemed worth it for the first half of the cycle and barely worth touching the second half

So basically it's coming down to you not personally liking the games Nintendo put out after 2014- that's fair, but your assertion that Nintendo got 'arrogant' and 'decided to coast for the rest of the generation' by 'dropping Wii U support' early is false.

2015 is possibly their lowest reviewed year, ever.

Yes, because they put out trash like Ultra Smash and Devil's Third.

On the other hand, they also put out Yoshi, Mario Maker, Splatoon, and Xenoblade.

NX will be one of the worst selling consoles of all time. It won't even outsell dreamcast. They are a terrible cheap lazy kiddy company that makes horrible hardware with unwanted gimmicks. They are always 10-20 years behind Sony and MS.

Metal Gear Solid and Half Life had voice acting in 1998.

Nintendos first voice acting game is supposedly coming in 2016(zelda). That is 18 years behind current standards.

What a joke!

Super Mario Sunshine came out in 2002.

Try again.

Definitely, things can go south- Nintendo might even get the NX right, and then screw up with the successor again. I get that, but the point is, with Nintendo being in the position they are now, their grasp on the console market is tenuous. If they plan on staying in the hardware business long term, they need to start laying down a long term foundation as well- and they don't get to a more secure position without first laying down a strong foundation, which is exactly what I am hoping they are planning for the NX. Think of it like Xbox->Xbox 360- a long term ploy where even if the NX itself isn't lighting the charts on fire, it gets them in the conversation again.

Of course, this is presuming Nintendo gets it right- first with the NX, and then with the successor. As I've said, they might not. They might screw it up. Early indications, however, are encouraging. Things could easily go south, but they just as easily could not. We'll have to wait and see what the NX is (I think we find out on April 28) before we can make any judgment on what it will do.

@speak_low:

Speaking of graphical improvements to Nintendo games, the Wii U was the first HD Nintendo console which means HD Nintendo games and people still did not bite.

The Wii U produces fine enough graphics for what Nintendo likes to make.

I dont see it selling much, pretty much the same as the Wii U, even with 3rd party support people will still look to Xbox/PS for their gaming need due to them being more familiar with the systems, they know what games to expect on them and then it'll be what their friends game on

I kind of need to know what the **** it is first..

That's a complete shot in the dark at this point.

Nintendo has no momentum from the U, no third party support, their online needs work, their marketing is inadequate, they are far too Japanese focused. They have a lot of work to do. The NX doesn't need to just be a new system launch with the Nintendo logo on it, it needs to represent the relaunching of Nintendo itself as a brand for the modern era if they wish to get any numbers more significant than the U.

1. Perception is not just marketing. That only goes so far, it also extends into software. It could be argued that with the combination of third party efforts they could push their perception elsewhere, but see #3. But then we have to deal with ridiculous shit like Nintendo refusing voice chat to "protect peoples' feelings". This childish nonsense is what affects the perception the most. Do they even want to change it? I'm doubtful, because it's values they hold as a company.
2. The online argument absolutely holds. Where's the accounts that they claimed were on the way? Why do people have to buy new games for the N3DS that they've bought 2 times previous for the Wii/U? Where's the party chat and standardization? They have a hell of a long way to go. IMO, their entire online needs an overhaul from this childish, Mii-based crap. It's dull, holds no attitude or edge, and conveys nothing.
3. "Unprecedented relationship". Remember that? Nintendo is always said to have an abundance of third party support promised by all the big publishers and developers at their system's launch, and what happens? It always inevitably drops off a cliff usually about a year post launch if not sooner. I wouldn't hold out great hope for third parties.
4. True.
5. Nintendo is again making a mistake launching mid-gen (and to be fair, I believe Sony and MS are as well with their half upgrades). Third parties are going to go where they get the most power, where cost effective ports are easy to do, and where they don't have to put up with Nintendo's nonsense in terms of control absurdities as they are probably going to do yet again.

I realize you want to remain optimistic towards Nintendo since this is a major launch for them in many respects, but I think it's important to pay heed to historical precedent in many of the aspects that you appear to be giving Nintendo the credit for before they've even happened.

1. As I said- Nintendo does have software that can appeal to mature audiences, it just chooses to downplay those games, or market them in an entirely different, family friendly light- Zelda, Metroid, Xenoblade, Fatal Frame, Fire Emblem, Smash Bros., are just some of Nintendo's own first party games that could be used to appeal to mature audiences. Third party software, assuming they have that this time, would also naturally help, and take the pressure off of them a bit.
2. All your arguments and everything you are saying is true- but I do not think any of this applies to the NX. Nintendo have explicitly courted the help of DeNA with the intent of using their network services expertise to provide a better online network this time. So yes, definitely, there are problems with Nintendo's network as it is right now, and it needs a lot of work (to wit: I love Super Metroid, but having to pay for it a third time on the 3DS really sucked- that said, and I realize this is a bit of a tangent, but one I hope to be able to discuss with you some other time, I also think that as far as only their consoles are concerned, Nintendo have, in spite of their barebones network infrastructure, handled digital continuity far better than Sony have). I just don't think that these problems apply to the NX, with Nintendo openly having courted help this time around.
   1. I also agree, absolutely, that Nintendo need to soften their stance on voice chat, and the like. They have parental controls, they need to use them.
3. I do want to point out the following;
   1. Even during the Wii U's reveal, multiple major third parties were missing
   2. Those that did show up barely committed to any games (for instance, Levine was there, but refused to discuss Bioshock on Wii U)
   3. In general, while Nintendo was certainly trying to play up the narrative of third party support on Wii U, most third parties, Japanese or western, were skipping out on actually taking the Wii U seriously
   4. This was evidenced by the fact that most major games around that time absolutely skipped the Wii U even as they came to Xbox 360 and PS3, and subsequent game announcements for titles with Xbox 360 and PS3 SKUs skipped out on Wii U versions- titles like Dishonored, Bioshock Infinite, Battlefield, Far Cry, Grand Theft Auto, XCOM, Metal Gear Solid Ground Zeroes, Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII, Dark Souls II, Crysis 3, Destiny, and many, many more.
   5. In general, judging solely by rumors (which is all we have to go by at this point, and which I have freely admitted multiple times in this thread may be mistaken or misleading), none of that holds true for NX- third parties, especially Japanese third parties, but quite a few western ones as well, seem to be very enthusiastic about the NX. Nintendo appears to be going out of their way to court third parties for the NX. If rumors are to be believed, then most major upcoming third party games are also coming to the NX. I understand your trepidation given the Wii U- but I do need to point out that early indications here are encouraging. While I don't think Nintendo will ever command industry wide support like PlayStation, I certainly could see them become the Japanese equivalent of the Xbox, which is, I think, not necessarily a poor flavor to represent on the market.
4. (I just need to put this here because otherwise the numbering gets messed up)
5. Yes, but those mid generation launches will help them- if the PS4K and NX are roughly within the same bracket, from a hardware perspective, that helps Nintendo market the NX as a competitor to the 4K, instead of the already entrenched Xbox One and PS4. If the NX ends up being PS4 and Xbox One level instead, then the NX gets third party support that those consoles do- theoretically. You are right in that Nintendo's policies are often unfeasible for third parties to put up with, and that could be a deterrent. However, with that said, all rumors indicate that Nintendo is willing to bend over backwards to accommodate third parties.

I understand your pessimism, it is not unfounded- but I do want to point out, my own optimism is based in what little we 'know' of the NX, which seems to indicate that Nintendo may have learned from the failure of the Wii U. And that's the second reason I am optimistic about the NX- I truly think that Nintendo understand how precarious their position in the hardware market is right now, and I believe that they are trying to avoid a Wii U like flop again, which I think they do understand could be fatal to their prospects.

In the long run, the NX could turn out to be Wii U Deux and I'd probably get it for the half dozen Nintendo games on it, so it ultimately does not matter to me if the NX is that big one stop console that Nintendo fans ultimately want it to be. With that said, however, I do believe the company understands its position, which is currently the worst it has ever been. They are stubborn, they are insular, and they are proud, but I don't think they are stupid- quite the contrary, in fact. I think sheer survival instinct is what will prompt them to swallow their pride and make something more competitive this time around.

No matter what, we'll find out in a few weeks anyway, I suppose.

Really depends on what they bring to the table. Something special is probably needed for it to do well, but if it has the games, you never know.

Make a product that people want and you will have a product that sells, regardless of previous failures.

The wii sold 100mill+..... Anything is possible.

Everyone of my friends didn't even know the Wii U launched and when they found it they thought it was the same system just a small upgrade or feature. Honestly it was one of the worst marketing jobs I have ever seen by a major company.

When they finally decide to reveal the thing and it's price I'll let ya know. :P

Given the rumors we heard d if we take them for true) and Sony pretty much killed themselves off with a .5 gen leap (and likely MS too) I see fairly good chances, I would rather buy a NX with 3rd party support then a PS4.5 (Because you know, Devs have already been out stating that games are targeting the 4.5 and will run much worse on the PS4 if those rumors are to be believed too), So MS and Sony are standing to piss off pretty much the majority of the current consumerbase they have.

Added to that, if Nintendo did manage to get 3rd party on board? well to be frank X1 and PS4 exclusives have been utter shit this gen, Wii U? Yeah it had a good few games on a failing platform.

With proper multiplat support? Yeah almost a no brainer to me.

Of course this is based soley on rumors from well everywhere, about the NX, PS4.5, about how devs are reacting to the hardware, and how Much Nintendo is rumored to be out there, grabbing 3rd party support.

Since they are all rumors, the above is based on rumors alone. They could well fail, there is a fairly high chance that they do, but if the things we have heard are even remotely true, then Nintendo has a far better shot then you seem to think TC.

Edit: forgot the question. I would say around 30-40 Mill Above what most people around here thing, but below what Nintendo hopes.

1. Thing is, I see little that Nintendo's doing to reverse a trend they've been undergoing for years now. Look at the style of Federation Force. There's little indication of desiring to court mature audiences from the tone they are taking on, on the contrary, their games appear to be becoming more child targeted in flavor and structure. Mario Galaxy was a darker game than SM3DW was. Chibi Metroid. Amiibo Festival. Sure, they have games here and there that are exceptions (Bayonetta, Fire Emblem), but they're more a compliment, not a focus.
2. It doesn't apply to the NX, it's worse--it applies to Nintendo, and as much as I'd love to believe that DeNA will usher in a modern day digital philosophical overhaul to Nintendo's digital approach....I'm skeptical. Especially after seeing that people are still required to repurchase games on the N3DS. There's two antiquities at play: Nintendo's philosophies, and the implementation of the infrastructure that supports them. It's possible that Nintendo will still require people to make redundant purchases once NX hits, or that standardized voice chat will not be an option. They don't hold say on policies that Nintendo has so stubbornly adhered to and has the final say on, so to assume that things will automatically change because an outside company is helping is downplaying Nintendo's control freaking. I don't believe we haven't seen those policies cease due to technical incompetence, but only because Nintendo doesn't wish to budge, and I suspect asinine things will remain (or new ones arise) even with DeNA's involvement.
3. All rumors should be accorded the respect they deserve, which is to say: they should sit on top of a mountain of salt (the recent controller fake being one prime example). Not including numerous articles during the U's days, we already have one from a developer that doesn't speak well on Nintendo's behalf in terms of developer relations for the NX. Sure, this can easily be chalked up to pre-launch secrecy, but it sounds like the same ol' Nintendo to me. A lack of communication. I also think a large part of the reason third parties don't wish to do business with Nintendo is because they're tired of being treated like subordinates instead of partners, but that's just my own theory.
4. I highly doubt the NX is going to be anywhere near 4k capable......PS4/One levels are what I'd bet on, maybe a tad more. And yea....I wager Nintendo's going to (again) do something hardware wise that's going to alienate third parties. I doubt they're going to be bending over backwards for them, they're too proud. I've made this argument before, but Nintendo will strengthen its business from within (streamlining their development pipeline, as one example) to make them less reliant on any outside factors to enable them to operate their business as they see fit. Not to say they won't welcome third parties, but to allow them to remain unbound to them in any way whatsoever.

In the end, that we know so little lends me no comfort at all compounded with what I DO see does not fill me with confidence either (even trying to put my natural pessimism aside). Every time I have any sort of expectation of Nintendo, I'm always incredibly let down. Hopefully the NX will change this but I'm not holding my breath. As you said, we'll see...

It is hard to make an assumption, because we know nothing about this NX. I'll take a stab anyway, between 30-35 million. I'm wondering why they are so secretive about a freaking console, it's going to have a CPU and a GPU I hope. You never know with Nintendo, they may think they have the best idea ever and it turns out to be garbage. I just hope they haven't lose touch with reality.

15 million units. You figure that's where the Wii U will end up and the same people who bought a Wii U will buy the NX.

I think it will sell extremely well. Much of wiiu software development was shifted to NX for sure. If Zelda comes out on both wiiu and NX, it's likely other wiiu titles will arrive as well. Everything Nintendo has been releasing is very much in line with old school games. It is somewhat sad people buy into the two hype machines because wiiu has some out of this world good games.

No offense, but where are you pulling these numbers from? Even if the NX had the same great third party support as the PS4 it still wouldn't sell more than the GC.

How will the NX succeed where the Gamecube failed? What can the NX offer that the GC didn't to make it more successful?

The NX getting tons of Wii U leftovers is not gonna make the console a success. The NX can only succeed if it has a gimmick that can attract the same uber casuals bought into the original Wii. The chances of that happening is pretty much zero. The NX is simply going to be yet another Nintendo console that sells to the hardcore Nintendo fan base.

More than the awful WiiU

It's a guess- just like all other numbers in this thread.

With Zelda as a launch title, the NX will sell like hotcakes. The main reason Wii U struggled so bad was lack of strong first party games and weak third party support. Lets hope Nintendo can fix that this time.

But it's not even a realistic guess if you look at both the GC and Wii U. There is only two options for the NX. The gimmick fails to catch on and the console only sells to the hardcore Nintendo fan base (Most Likely), or the gimmick becomes a huge hit with the mainstream audience and the console sells like hot cakes (Slim Chance).

There is no middle ground with Nintendo consoles anymore.

There is not enough information at this point. It could be great or it could be Wii U 2.0

I think the assumption that it would cap out at Gamecube is erroneous. I see a more N64/SNES type of ceiling in terms of commercial performance for the system.

We'll see.

This is not a weakness, family friendly sells. Lots of parents are worried about games being too violent/explicit and they will happily buy a console marketed as being more colorful and cartoony. This is obviously not appealing to many teenagers, but there's def a large market there to tap (look at how Disney's movies are doing at the moment lol).

@emgesp:

It offers something different. No other developer is like Nintendo. Sony and Microsoft are attempting to shift console releases akin to phone releases. Because of this, and with the lack of big exclusive releases, a large portion of the fanbase will likely jump ship and see the benefits of the PC format.

Also, the industry has changed. The market has evolved. The PlayStation and Xbox brands are the casual ones.

Yet, we have two recent examples of Nintendo consoles that failed to reach that ceiling. The original Wii proves that Nintendo needs gimmicks in order to sell home consoles in significant numbers these days. No gimmick = Guaranteed Flop.

When the N64 came out it only had competition with the PS1. The NX is gonna have to compete with potentially 4 consoles when it comes out (PS4, PS4K, XB1, XB1.5). Competition is stronger than ever these days. NX is a guaranteed flop without a gimmick that attracts the mainstream.

Zelda isn't as relevant as you think. I mean yeah hardcore Zelda fans will buy into it, but a Zelda game hasn't been a true killer app for quite a long time.

Skyward Sword only sold 4 million units on a console with a 100 million install base. That should give you an idea of Zelda's relevancy.

So what's going to happen exactly with the Wii U once the NX is released? Are they going to cease online playability like they did with the Wii?

Such an opinion is one I've had for a very long time. Look at that clip featuring Metroid prime. Nintendo used to make commercials that would blow your mind and whether simple or complex, the message was conveyed perfectly. Where have those advertisements gone and why have they gone? In another topic I mentioned how Nintendo once made it a priority to be seen practically every where. You'd see this company in its magazine, cereal, television, etc..,

Whether one loves or hates Nintendo, this company still makes good games but people demand and require more than the staples of this company. Sometimes I am not sure if the shot callers realize it is the mid 2010's rather than the early 1990's.

I'm glad Sony and Microsoft want to kill off 5 - 6 yr console cycles. It doesn't make sense anymore to just stick with one piece of hardware for that long. Tech advances every year and Sony and Microsoft should take advantage of that and release new hardware more often. Nintendo will be left behind because they don't want to adapt to changes in the console market.

@emgesp:

That's exactly it, and only further emphasizes my point. They are decreasing the value of consoles.

The nx is dead

1. You can get all nintendo content from emulation most of it runs on a smart phone. Yes even the wii u games and they look better

2. Nintendo has two strong consoles that are established in the market already

3. Nintendo sucks at online gaming

4. Nintendo won't match the price of the x1 that is getting owned by sony

5. Nintendo sucks at graphics no matter what the hadware just look at the wii u getting owned by the ps3/360

6. Nintendo always gimps their hardware (no dolby digital,no hard drive,no blu-ray playback ect)

7. Nintendo stinks at marketing

8. Nintendo has mold for ip's zero fucks given for mario

9. No 3rd party support

10. Nintendo is run by old people living in the 20th century when japan was the center of gaming.

I'm going with 10 - 15 million at most.

Not sure what exactly it has going for it, and it's supposed to be out this year, yet I'm the only one in any of my groups of friends to have even heard of the NX, which is only because I'm on GS in the first place. Hell some of them don't know that the Wii U is a thing.

That was still 4 million on a single console which is an amazing number. If Zelda NX sells 4 million at launch, would be awesome.

Exactly. I was gonna say I heard this same comment when GameCube was a failure with 22 million units sold. Funny that a company that has sold over 300 million units (DS/3DS), and in the previous generation dominated everybody in the home console market is even in the conversation of being a "make it or break it" situation. NX may be a total failure, who knows. We don't even know what it is yet. Speculating that it will sell half the units the WiiU sold and Nintendo as a result will be an exclusive mobile game developer is a bit absurd and shows a lack of basic business knowledge. (No offense intended.) Even if what you're projecting (6-8M units shipped) holds true, that would be comparable to the Saturn which was not even Sega's swan song. Even they were able to come up with one last hail mary after 5 years of net loss. It's been said in many articles that Nintendo could potentially take a $250M net loss every year for the next 40 years and still survive. Does anyone even look at market sheets? When was the last time Nintendo took a fiscal loss? Just because you don't like their systems doesn't mean they aren't making money. At the end of the day, that's what running a corporation is all about. It's not about converting haters into customers, its about making money. News flash...lots of companies are profitable without you.

Uncharted 3 sold 6+ million units on a console with an 80 million install base. Uncharted is more relevant than Zelda.

Point is Zelda isn't going to make the NX successful. Mario Kart and Smash are Nintendo's biggest console franchises and they weren't enough to save the Wii U and they won't be enough to save the NX.

About that NPD point, you might want to look at last month's...