I predict by black friday 2010 PS3 will officially be leading the 360 in sales..

[QUOTE="santoron"]

[QUOTE="MortalDecay"]

If the 360 stopped selling, completely, and the PS3 sold at the rate it is now, it would take close to 4 years for it to catch up. And that's only if the 360 stopped selling. Do the math.VoodooHak

Um... the difference between the two systems is around 7 million units right now. So, by your math the PS3 would be selling less than 2 million units a year... for the next 4 years. Heck, the PS3 sold more than 3 million units in the last 3 months!

So I did the math you were espousing, and it's very wrong. :shock:

Math:

Let's say the PS3 sold 28million. And let's be generous again and say that the 360 leads by only 6 million.

For the PS3 to catch up to the 360 in 12 months, it would need to sell, on the average, of 600k units per month while the 360 only sells 100k per month.

At the end of those 12 months, both would be tied at 35.2 million.

So... you think the PS3 can pull off 600k units per month for 12 months? How much did it sell again with it's recent price drop?

[QUOTE="VoodooHak"]

Math:

Let's say the PS3 sold 28million. And let's be generous again and say that the 360 leads by only 6 million.

For the PS3 to catch up to the 360 in 12 months, it would need to sell, on the average, of 600k units per month while the 360 only sells 100k per month.

At the end of those 12 months, both would be tied at 35.2 million.

So... you think the PS3 can pull off 600k units per month for 12 months? How much did it sell again with it's recent price drop?

HuusAsking

Two things:

They could boost sales for a month or two, but they'd be lucky to reach 500k units for the months that those games release. Globally, I'm sure they did over 600k in September, but could these games help the PS3 sustain an average of 600k units a month for a whole year?

Also, even if they could sell that many units, my conditions above were very generous, including the idea that the 360 would only sell 100k per month globally. They've consistently been well over that just in North America.

[QUOTE="HuusAsking"][QUOTE="VoodooHak"]

Math:

Let's say the PS3 sold 28million. And let's be generous again and say that the 360 leads by only 6 million.

For the PS3 to catch up to the 360 in 12 months, it would need to sell, on the average, of 600k units per month while the 360 only sells 100k per month.

At the end of those 12 months, both would be tied at 35.2 million.

So... you think the PS3 can pull off 600k units per month for 12 months? How much did it sell again with it's recent price drop?

VoodooHak

Two things:

They could boost sales for a month or two, but they'd be lucky to reach 500k units for the months that those games release. Globally, I'm sure they did over 600k in September, but could these games help the PS3 sustain an average of 600k units a month for a whole year?

Also, even if they could sell that many units, my conditions above were very generous, including the idea that the 360 would only sell 100k per month globally. They've consistently been well over that just in North America.

Right now there is a 6 million gap between the 2 consoles. (PS3 28 million, 360 34 million units) I think in the US alone this holiday for the months of Oct, Nov and Dec that PS3 will outsell the 360 total by a million consoles for the full holiday season this year.. PS3 is currently selling very stronlgly and outselling the 360 in europe.. A News story earlier today showed that for the first time the PS3 will outsell the Wii in Japan this year for 2009 which is HUGE! Once Final Fantasy XIII comes out next month in Japan PS3 sales will be EPIC.

Going into 2010 Gran Turismo 5 hits and will sell millions of consoles in Europe and Japan and will sell a healthy number of consoles in the US as well. By Summer of 09 the gap between the PS3 and 360 will be down to just 3 millon units. Come November 2010 the PS3 will get a $50.00 price cut (most likely the 360 will yes) however the PS3 with its stellar line up for next year will sell very very good units come next november.. When its all said and done worldwide for 2010, i predict the PS3 will be leading the 360 by ATLEAST 500,000-1 million units.

Kennysolidsnake

Right now there is a 6 million gap between the 2 consoles. (PS3 28 million, 360 34 million units) I think in the US alone this holiday for the months of Oct, Nov and Dec that PS3 will outsell the 360 total by a million consoles for the full holiday season this year.. PS3 is currently selling very stronlgly and outselling the 360 in europe.. A News story earlier today showed that for the first time the PS3 will outsell the Wii in Japan this year for 2009 which is HUGE! Once Final Fantasy XIII comes out next month in Japan PS3 sales will be EPIC.

Going into 2010 Gran Turismo 5 hits and will sell millions of consoles in Europe and Japan and will sell a healthy number of consoles in the US as well. By Summer of 09 the gap between the PS3 and 360 will be down to just 3 millon units. Come November 2010 the PS3 will get a $50.00 price cut (most likely the 360 will yes) however the PS3 with its stellar line up for next year will sell very very good units come next november.. When its all said and done worldwide for 2010, i predict the PS3 will be leading the 360 by ATLEAST 500,000-1 million units.

Kennysolidsnake

i could of swore i just saw 27 million recently

Wow, what a bold predction. While I don't agree, props to you for accepting the ownage that is coming.

Of course, you may be insane, but you may also be a genius, so I now have a small reason to pay attention to salve so I can remember this thread.

Honestly though, Sales of these consoles don't matter so much at this point. They are both selling good, even though the Wii is spanking them both.

That being said, games are where it's at for me. :)

SolidTy

Even with FF13 and GT5 coming up?HuusAsking

Two things:

They could boost sales for a month or two, but they'd be lucky to reach 500k units for the months that those games release. Globally, I'm sure they did over 600k in September, but could these games help the PS3 sustain an average of 600k units a month for a whole year?

Also, even if they could sell that many units, my conditions above were very generous, including the idea that the 360 would only sell 100k per month globally. They've consistently been well over that just in North America.

[QUOTE="VoodooHak"]

[QUOTE="HuusAsking"]Even with FF13 and GT5 coming up?HuusAsking

Two things:

They could boost sales for a month or two, but they'd be lucky to reach 500k units for the months that those games release. Globally, I'm sure they did over 600k in September, but could these games help the PS3 sustain an average of 600k units a month for a whole year?

Also, even if they could sell that many units, my conditions above were very generous, including the idea that the 360 would only sell 100k per month globally. They've consistently been well over that just in North America.

Context.

PS2 was all by its lonesome as the Dreamcast, it's only competition, had been floundering. By November of 2001, as we all know, Sega discontinued their console. Before that PS2 was already in the lead. Fast forward to today. The PS3 is behind the 360 which shows now signs of floundering.

There's no doubt that the PS3 could start closing the gap. But to say that it will lead the 360 in a little over a year is highly improbable. Is it ouside the realm of possibility? Of course not. Anything's possible. However, as I see it... and according to how things are panning out now, I just don't see it happening in only one year.

Since when has the PS3 outsold the 360 by a million units :question: september was only like 170000 :P

Friday the 13th is in march right? :P

Since when has the PS3 outsold the 360 by a million units :question: september was only like 170000 :P

DoomZaW

6 million/170,000= 35...

The ps3 would have to consistanly outsell the 360 by 170,000 for almost THREE straight years to get into second place.

Right now there is a 6 million gap between the 2 consoles. (PS3 28 million, 360 34 million units) I think in the US alone this holiday for the months of Oct, Nov and Dec that PS3 will outsell the 360 total by a million consoles for the full holiday season this year.. PS3 is currently selling very stronlgly and outselling the 360 in europe.. A News story earlier today showed that for the first time the PS3 will outsell the Wii in Japan this year for 2009 which is HUGE! Once Final Fantasy XIII comes out next month in Japan PS3 sales will be EPIC.

Going into 2010 Gran Turismo 5 hits and will sell millions of consoles in Europe and Japan and will sell a healthy number of consoles in the US as well. By Summer of 09 the gap between the PS3 and 360 will be down to just 3 millon units. Come November 2010 the PS3 will get a $50.00 price cut (most likely the 360 will yes) however the PS3 with its stellar line up for next year will sell very very good units come next november.. When its all said and done worldwide for 2010, i predict the PS3 will be leading the 360 by ATLEAST 500,000-1 million units.

[QUOTE="DoomZaW"]

Since when has the PS3 outsold the 360 by a million units :question: september was only like 170000 :P

Yankees718

6 million/170,000= 35...

The ps3 would have to consistanly outsell the 360 by 170,000 for almost THREE straight years to get into second place.

exactly my point, even with these numbers it would need a miracle to get in 2nd place before this gen is over

Right now there is a 6 million gap between the 2 consoles. (PS3 28 million, 360 34 million units) I think in the US alone this holiday for the months of Oct, Nov and Dec that PS3 will outsell the 360 total by a million consoles for the full holiday season this year.. PS3 is currently selling very stronlgly and outselling the 360 in europe.. A News story earlier today showed that for the first time the PS3 will outsell the Wii in Japan this year for 2009 which is HUGE! Once Final Fantasy XIII comes out next month in Japan PS3 sales will be EPIC.

Going into 2010 Gran Turismo 5 hits and will sell millions of consoles in Europe and Japan and will sell a healthy number of consoles in the US as well. By Summer of 09 the gap between the PS3 and 360 will be down to just 3 millon units. Come November 2010 the PS3 will get a $50.00 price cut (most likely the 360 will yes) however the PS3 with its stellar line up for next year will sell very very good units come next november.. When its all said and done worldwide for 2010, i predict the PS3 will be leading the 360 by ATLEAST 500,000-1 million units.

Kennysolidsnake

HOLY @$%#&*%&!!!!

That was spoken from a true ps3 fanboy right?

You do realize that in order to surpass the 360 in sales by the end of November 2010 (which is pretty much the same as Black Friday in terms of sales reporting) the PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by approximately 538k per month? Those are 2008 Wii numbers.

PBSnipes

And dont forget, it has to OUTSELL 360 it by that much. Which means whatever 360 sells (200 - 300K per mnth) plus 538K. Someone really thinks PS3 is going to sell 700 - 800K units per month? Wow the Sony sheeple are simply loosing it...

Yes as long as nothing else ever changes between now and then you might be right.

kuu2

[QUOTE="DoomZaW"]

Since when has the PS3 outsold the 360 by a million units :question: september was only like 170000 :P

Yankees718

6 million/170,000= 35...

The ps3 would have to consistanly outsell the 360 by 170,000 for almost THREE straight years to get into second place.

Actually, the worldwide difference for the last few months was closer to 375k units a month. Sony outsold the 360 by 1.1million units over the last 3 months.

And I've now seen 23,624,176 different attempts on this board to show how "if sales stay at this rate.." ect. ect. blah blah blah. That isn't the way the industry works.

This past summer the line was that the PS3 would be hard pressed to Ever outsell the 360 by 80,000 units in a month, because we were in the middle of the slowest part of the console-selling year, and that was what the 360 had just outsold the PS3 by. Ignoring how the these machine grew install bases in the tens of millions in a couple years, all the "Smart Math" came out and assumed no one was gonna sell more than 300,000 consoles in a month. Ever.

Now we've left the slowest part of the year behind and console sales are starting to ramp back up. The PS3 has shown a bit of life, and once again everyone has their own opinion over the gap, the sales rate, and then they plug it all in a calculator agin and try to show these rediculous figures about "how many years under the most optimistic conditions it will take"... And once again, they ignore that console sales aren't even kind of static in levels month after month. The 360 sold in the neighborhood of half of it total cosole sales for the year in the last 3 months in 2008. Nearly half of those come in December! Microsoft sold nearly 1.7 million consoles in North Americaalone last December, more than doubling the over 850,000 consoles they sold in NA last November. For the last 3 months of 2008, Micrsoft reported sales of over 6 million units, bringing them to 28 Million units sold to begin this year. These numbers understandably throw a monkey wrench into all of these silly "Math" threads that extrapolate June or September or... whatever other month's numbers.

Now I'm not saying TC is correct, because I don't think he is. But these random Math arguments against the TC aren't making any of you look more reasonable than him. Everyone is cherry picking a number and extrapolating it... and that just doesn't work. What if we all took December sales of the 3 consoles and used those for all our projections? How crazy would that look? Just sit back and watch it happen. I don't know how this will end up and neither do any of you. But I'll bet there will be plenty of popcorn worthy drama in the months ahead. :P

People forget that the 360 is going to sell great as well on the holidays.

[QUOTE="Yankees718"]

[QUOTE="DoomZaW"]

Since when has the PS3 outsold the 360 by a million units :question: september was only like 170000 :P

santoron

6 million/170,000= 35...

The ps3 would have to consistanly outsell the 360 by 170,000 for almost THREE straight years to get into second place.

Actually, the worldwide difference for the last few months was closer to 375k units a month. Sony outsold the 360 by 1.1million units over the last 3 months.

And I've now seen 23,624,176 different attempts on this board to show how "if sales stay at this rate.." ect. ect. blah blah blah. That isn't the way the industry works.

This past summer the line was that the PS3 would be hard pressed to Ever outsell the 360 by 80,000 units in a month, because we were in the middle of the slowest part of the console-selling year, and that was what the 360 had just outsold the PS3 by. Ignoring how the these machine grew install bases in the tens of millions in a couple years, all the "Smart Math" came out and assumed no one was gonna sell more than 300,000 consoles in a month. Ever.

Now we've left the slowest part of the year behind and console sales are starting to ramp back up. The PS3 has shown a bit of life, and once again everyone has their own opinion over the gap, the sales rate, and then they plug it all in a calculator agin and try to show these rediculous figures about "how many years under the most optimistic conditions it will take"... And once again, they ignore that console sales aren't even kind of static in levels month after month. The 360 sold in the neighborhood of half of it total cosole sales for the year in the last 3 months in 2008. Nearly half of those come in December! Microsoft sold nearly 1.7 million consoles in North Americaalone last December, more than doubling the over 850,000 consoles they sold in NA last November. For the last 3 months of 2008, Micrsoft reported sales of over 6 million units, bringing them to 28 Million units sold to begin this year. These numbers understandably throw a monkey wrench into all of these silly "Math" threads that extrapolate June or September or... whatever other month's numbers.

Now I'm not saying TC is correct, because I don't think he is. But these random Math arguments against the TC aren't making any of you look more reasonable than him. Everyone is cherry picking a number and extrapolating it... and that just doesn't work. What if we all took December sales of the 3 consoles and used those for all our projections? How crazy would that look? Just sit back and watch it happen. I don't know how this will end up and neither do any of you. But I'll bet there will be plenty of popcorn worthy drama in the months ahead. :P

Dude, its not just cherry picking a number. Even if the 360 sold 0 units, and the PS3 sold 500k for the next 12 months, it still would be behind the 360. To put that in perspective, the Wii has only sold more than 500k in 7 out of 36 months in the last 3 years...

[QUOTE="Kennysolidsnake"][QUOTE="MotoRacer81"] Love you signature! On topic, when you actually punch in the the numbers, this means that in 12 months the PS3 has to out-sell the 360 by 500k units! This is simply impossible!! The PS3 isn't even outselling the 360 by anything that is remotely close.MortalDecay

If the 360 stopped selling, completely, and the PS3 sold at the rate it is now, it would take close to 4 years for it to catch up. And that's only if the 360 stopped selling. Do the math.

Why does it matter so much to you that the PS3 needs to outsell the 360? The PS3 is an awesome console, regardless. The fun I have with my games isn't based on how many 360s and PS3s are sold in a month. Sales don't make a console anymore fun. These threads are pointless.

You do realize that in order to surpass the 360 in sales by the end of November 2010 (which is pretty much the same as Black Friday in terms of sales reporting) the PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by approximately 538k per month? Those are 2008 Wii numbers.

PBSnipes

yea thats never gonna happen

myth busted

[QUOTE="HuusAsking"][QUOTE="VoodooHak"]

Two things:

They could boost sales for a month or two, but they'd be lucky to reach 500k units for the months that those games release. Globally, I'm sure they did over 600k in September, but could these games help the PS3 sustain an average of 600k units a month for a whole year?

Also, even if they could sell that many units, my conditions above were very generous, including the idea that the 360 would only sell 100k per month globally. They've consistently been well over that just in North America.

VoodooHak

Context.

PS2 was all by its lonesome as the Dreamcast, it's only competition, had been floundering. By November of 2001, as we all know, Sega discontinued their console. Before that PS2 was already in the lead. Fast forward to today. The PS3 is behind the 360 which shows now signs of floundering.

There's no doubt that the PS3 could start closing the gap. But to say that it will lead the 360 in a little over a year is highly improbable. Is it ouside the realm of possibility? Of course not. Anything's possible. However, as I see it... and according to how things are panning out now, I just don't see it happening in only one year.

[QUOTE="santoron"]

... A wall of text.

h575309

Dude, its not just cherry picking a number. Even if the 360 sold 0 units, and the PS3 sold 500k for the next 12 months, it still would be behind the 360. To put that in perspective, the Wii has only sold more than 500k in 7 out of 36 months in the last 3 years...

Of course it is! Your example of the Wii is a perfect example. Assuming your info is correct, and the Wii's worldwide sales number have only eclipsed 500k units in a month 7 times in three years (which is dubious since the Wii hasn't yet even completed 3 full years on the market, and the sales data from October is definitely not out yet) it's attempting to downplay the most important months of the Wii's sales. Lets say the Wii sold exactly 500,000 consoles for the other 29 months you mentioned. That would be 14.5 million consoles. Which means to reach the Wii's actual install base at this time of somewhere in the neighborhood of 54 million units, those 7 months would need to total about 40 million units. Now like I said, I kinda doubt the accuracy of your numbers, but it should be pretty clear exactly how important thos holiday months are, and how using projections based off of any other month isn't gonna give you anything like an accurate portrayal of the market.

Or your "360 stops selling" hypothesis. You initmate that 500k PS3s sold a month is a fair... if not optimistic projection. That would be 6 million units in a year, and we all know the PS3 sells considerably more than that in a year. The PS3 recently reached 27 million units sold, and in under 3 years, so you can see easily that the PS3 is selling better than your hypothesis.

And none of this even takes into account the fact that year on year sales of the consoles don't remain static. Take a look at the PS2. It sold a hair over 9 million consoles in 2001. It sold over 22 million consoles in 2003. If we were to assume all years would be just like 2001, we'd come up with a way deflated idea of the PS2's sales. If we used 2003, we'd way overinflate it.

My Point stands. You simply cannot take any one month and project that out to the life of the console accurately. You really can't even take one year.

[QUOTE="h575309"]

[QUOTE="santoron"]

... A wall of text.

Dude, its not just cherry picking a number. Even if the 360 sold 0 units, and the PS3 sold 500k for the next 12 months, it still would be behind the 360. To put that in perspective, the Wii has only sold more than 500k in 7 out of 36 months in the last 3 years...

Of course it is! Your example of the Wii is a perfect example. Assuming your info is correct, and the Wii's worldwide sales number have only eclipsed 500k units in a month 7 times in three years (which is dubious since the Wii hasn't yet even completed 3 full years on the market, and the sales data from October is definitely not out yet) it's attempting to downplay the most important months of the Wii's sales. Lets say the Wii sold exactly 500,000 consoles for the other 29 months you mentioned. That would be 14.5 million consoles. Which means to reach the Wii's actual install base at this time of somewhere in the neighborhood of 54 million units, those 7 months would need to total about 40 million units. Now like I said, I kinda doubt the accuracy of your numbers, but it should be pretty clear exactly how important thos holiday months are, and how using projections based off of any other month isn't gonna give you anything like an accurate portrayal of the market.

Or your "360 stops selling" hypothesis. You initmate that 500k PS3s sold a month is a fair... if not optimistic projection. That would be 6 million units in a year, and we all know the PS3 sells considerably more than that in a year. The PS3 recently reached 27 million units sold, and in under 3 years, so you can see easily that the PS3 is selling better than your hypothesis.

And none of this even takes into account the fact that year on year sales of the consoles don't remain static. Take a look at the PS2. It sold a hair over 9 million consoles in 2001. It sold over 22 million consoles in 2003. If we were to assume all years would be just like 2001, we'd come up with a way deflated idea of the PS2's sales. If we used 2003, we'd way overinflate it.

My Point stands. You simply cannot take any one month and project that out to the life of the console accurately. You really can't even take one year.

[QUOTE="Yankees718"]

[QUOTE="DoomZaW"]

Since when has the PS3 outsold the 360 by a million units :question: september was only like 170000 :P

santoron

6 million/170,000= 35...

The ps3 would have to consistanly outsell the 360 by 170,000 for almost THREE straight years to get into second place.

Actually, the worldwide difference for the last few months was closer to 375k units a month. Sony outsold the 360 by 1.1million units over the last 3 months.

And I've now seen 23,624,176 different attempts on this board to show how "if sales stay at this rate.." ect. ect. blah blah blah. That isn't the way the industry works.

This past summer the line was that the PS3 would be hard pressed to Ever outsell the 360 by 80,000 units in a month, because we were in the middle of the slowest part of the console-selling year, and that was what the 360 had just outsold the PS3 by. Ignoring how the these machine grew install bases in the tens of millions in a couple years, all the "Smart Math" came out and assumed no one was gonna sell more than 300,000 consoles in a month. Ever.

Now we've left the slowest part of the year behind and console sales are starting to ramp back up. The PS3 has shown a bit of life, and once again everyone has their own opinion over the gap, the sales rate, and then they plug it all in a calculator agin and try to show these rediculous figures about "how many years under the most optimistic conditions it will take"... And once again, they ignore that console sales aren't even kind of static in levels month after month. The 360 sold in the neighborhood of half of it total cosole sales for the year in the last 3 months in 2008. Nearly half of those come in December! Microsoft sold nearly 1.7 million consoles in North Americaalone last December, more than doubling the over 850,000 consoles they sold in NA last November. For the last 3 months of 2008, Micrsoft reported sales of over 6 million units, bringing them to 28 Million units sold to begin this year. These numbers understandably throw a monkey wrench into all of these silly "Math" threads that extrapolate June or September or... whatever other month's numbers.

Now I'm not saying TC is correct, because I don't think he is. But these random Math arguments against the TC aren't making any of you look more reasonable than him. Everyone is cherry picking a number and extrapolating it... and that just doesn't work. What if we all took December sales of the 3 consoles and used those for all our projections? How crazy would that look? Just sit back and watch it happen. I don't know how this will end up and neither do any of you. But I'll bet there will be plenty of popcorn worthy drama in the months ahead. :P

Like i said CONSISTENT sales numbers. Not like:

November: 450,000 Units

December: 600,000 Units

January: 300,000 Units

February: 350,000 UNits

March: 250,000 Units

April: 200,000 Units

May: 185,000 Units

June: 150,000 Units

etc...

Thats NOT consistent enough to over take the 360 (made up numbers if you were wondering)

360 is going to drop the arcade to $99 and it will be all over.

Normal Logic : The PS3 cannot sell 500k more than the 360 consistently for a whole year.

After Drinking Sony's Kool-Aid - OMG!4D Graphics! 120FPS!Blu-Ray! Teh Cell! The PS3's gamelibrary is filled with allAAA games (including Lair, as that revolutionised combat!), and the Xbox won't sell at all! In fact, it will sell a Million More than the 360 every month!

In other (Old) News- Sony flames Microsoft

Kaz Hirai- Microsoft Copies Everything We Do

[QUOTE="VoodooHak"]

[QUOTE="HuusAsking"]So what do you think caused PS2 sales to go up and stay up around the spring of 2001? I mean, they went from a few hundred thousand to over 2 million and were then selling over 1 million a month for years afterward. Sounds like Sony hit a breakaway moment to me. Couldn't the PS3 have a similar breakaway moment?HuusAsking

Context.

PS2 was all by its lonesome as the Dreamcast, it's only competition, had been floundering. By November of 2001, as we all know, Sega discontinued their console. Before that PS2 was already in the lead. Fast forward to today. The PS3 is behind the 360 which shows now signs of floundering.

There's no doubt that the PS3 could start closing the gap. But to say that it will lead the 360 in a little over a year is highly improbable. Is it ouside the realm of possibility? Of course not. Anything's possible. However, as I see it... and according to how things are panning out now, I just don't see it happening in only one year.

It's a bit of an over-simplification to say that the PS2's breakaway hinged on just two titles. There's economic climate, the amount of competition and their levels of momentum....things that are very different when comparing last gen to this gen, even ignoring the facts that FFXIII is going to be on 360 and Forza 3 has proven itself to stand toe-to-toe with GT5. These would skew the comparison even more.

So no, I don't think we can use last gen to forecast the outcome through next year.

[QUOTE="santoron"]

[QUOTE="h575309"]

Dude, its not just cherry picking a number. Even if the 360 sold 0 units, and the PS3 sold 500k for the next 12 months, it still would be behind the 360. To put that in perspective, the Wii has only sold more than 500k in 7 out of 36 months in the last 3 years...

blue_hazy_basic

Of course it is! Your example of the Wii is a perfect example. Assuming your info is correct, and the Wii's worldwide sales number have only eclipsed 500k units in a month 7 times in three years (which is dubious since the Wii hasn't yet even completed 3 full years on the market, and the sales data from October is definitely not out yet) it's attempting to downplay the most important months of the Wii's sales. Lets say the Wii sold exactly 500,000 consoles for the other 29 months you mentioned. That would be 14.5 million consoles. Which means to reach the Wii's actual install base at this time of somewhere in the neighborhood of 54 million units, those 7 months would need to total about 40 million units. Now like I said, I kinda doubt the accuracy of your numbers, but it should be pretty clear exactly how important thos holiday months are, and how using projections based off of any other month isn't gonna give you anything like an accurate portrayal of the market.

Or your "360 stops selling" hypothesis. You initmate that 500k PS3s sold a month is a fair... if not optimistic projection. That would be 6 million units in a year, and we all know the PS3 sells considerably more than that in a year. The PS3 recently reached 27 million units sold, and in under 3 years, so you can see easily that the PS3 is selling better than your hypothesis.

And none of this even takes into account the fact that year on year sales of the consoles don't remain static. Take a look at the PS2. It sold a hair over 9 million consoles in 2001. It sold over 22 million consoles in 2003. If we were to assume all years would be just like 2001, we'd come up with a way deflated idea of the PS2's sales. If we used 2003, we'd way overinflate it.

My Point stands. You simply cannot take any one month and project that out to the life of the console accurately. You really can't even take one year.

It is the definition of cherry picking!

From Wikipedia:"Cherry picking is the act of pointing at individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position."

You've missed the point entirely. My point isn't to show that the PS3 can or will erase a 6 million console deficit (and I believe the actual gap is more like 7 million) in 12 months. It's merely to show that taking one month and projecting it out over the next year, which is what person after person keeps trying to do, doesn't work. Your PS3 analysis in the quote above would lead an uninformed reader to believe that it would take a herculean feat for the PS3 to average 500k units a month next year... I mean, that is why you put your Wii monthly sales figures in, right? But a simple look at the install base shows an obvious gap between that projection and what the PS3 has already done.

Theoretically, if the PS3 were to outsell the 360 by the same % of units over the next quarter as it did during the last, several million could be shaved off the 360's lead before 2010 arrives. Because that's how heavily backloaded console sales are during a calender year. Do I think that will happen? No. The past 3 months included a great deal of excitement over the new PS3 model and reduced price, and I don't believe that's a reliable set of data to project forward. In fact, my entire point is that there is no such thing as a reliable set of data to project forward with authority. You can look towards trends, but that's about it.

I predict by black friday 2010, TC will have been banned, and using a different name saving himself from ownage.cainetao11

:lol: Out of all the predictions on here, this one seems most reasonable.

360 is going to drop the arcade to $99 and it will be all over.

xxyetixx

Yeah I see that happening too. A $99 Arcade, The 120GB Elite moving to $199, or $149, and the 250GB Elite happening soon and moving to $299, or $249. No I don't have a crystal ball for the 250 Elite but how can they not release it with Sony doing a 250 GB PS3.

I mean seriously Hard Drives don't cost Microsoft much. We buy 1 TB drives at work for around $34. Of course we buy alot of them, but I would bet a 120GB drive probably costs MS around $10.

quite a bold prediction... but highly unlikely

[QUOTE="blue_hazy_basic"][QUOTE="santoron"]

Of course it is! Your example of the Wii is a perfect example. Assuming your info is correct, and the Wii's worldwide sales number have only eclipsed 500k units in a month 7 times in three years (which is dubious since the Wii hasn't yet even completed 3 full years on the market, and the sales data from October is definitely not out yet) it's attempting to downplay the most important months of the Wii's sales. Lets say the Wii sold exactly 500,000 consoles for the other 29 months you mentioned. That would be 14.5 million consoles. Which means to reach the Wii's actual install base at this time of somewhere in the neighborhood of 54 million units, those 7 months would need to total about 40 million units. Now like I said, I kinda doubt the accuracy of your numbers, but it should be pretty clear exactly how important thos holiday months are, and how using projections based off of any other month isn't gonna give you anything like an accurate portrayal of the market.

Or your "360 stops selling" hypothesis. You initmate that 500k PS3s sold a month is a fair... if not optimistic projection. That would be 6 million units in a year, and we all know the PS3 sells considerably more than that in a year. The PS3 recently reached 27 million units sold, and in under 3 years, so you can see easily that the PS3 is selling better than your hypothesis.

And none of this even takes into account the fact that year on year sales of the consoles don't remain static. Take a look at the PS2. It sold a hair over 9 million consoles in 2001. It sold over 22 million consoles in 2003. If we were to assume all years would be just like 2001, we'd come up with a way deflated idea of the PS2's sales. If we used 2003, we'd way overinflate it.

My Point stands. You simply cannot take any one month and project that out to the life of the console accurately. You really can't even take one year.

santoron

You've missed the point entirely. My point isn't to show that the PS3 can or will erase a 6 million console deficit (and I believe the actual gap is more like 7 million) in 12 months. It's merely to show that taking one month and projecting it out over the next year, which is what person after person keeps trying to do, doesn't work. Your PS3 analysis in the quote above would lead an uninformed reader to believe that it would take a herculean feat for the PS3 to average 500k units a month next year... I mean, that is why you put your Wii monthly sales figures in, right? But a simple look at the install base shows an obvious gap between that projection and what the PS3 has already done.

Theoretically, if the PS3 were to outsell the 360 by the same % of units over the next quarter as it did during the last, several million could be shaved off the 360's lead before 2010 arrives. Because that's how heavily backloaded console sales are during a calender year. Do I think that will happen? No. The past 3 months included a great deal of excitement over the new PS3 model and reduced price, and I don't believe that's a reliable set of data to project forward. In fact, my entire point is that there is no such thing as a reliable set of data to project forward with authority. You can look towards trends, but that's about it.

EDIT and i never said anything about the Wii, that was someone else!

[QUOTE="blue_hazy_basic"][QUOTE="santoron"]

Of course it is! Your example of the Wii is a perfect example. Assuming your info is correct, and the Wii's worldwide sales number have only eclipsed 500k units in a month 7 times in three years (which is dubious since the Wii hasn't yet even completed 3 full years on the market, and the sales data from October is definitely not out yet) it's attempting to downplay the most important months of the Wii's sales. Lets say the Wii sold exactly 500,000 consoles for the other 29 months you mentioned. That would be 14.5 million consoles. Which means to reach the Wii's actual install base at this time of somewhere in the neighborhood of 54 million units, those 7 months would need to total about 40 million units. Now like I said, I kinda doubt the accuracy of your numbers, but it should be pretty clear exactly how important thos holiday months are, and how using projections based off of any other month isn't gonna give you anything like an accurate portrayal of the market.

Or your "360 stops selling" hypothesis. You initmate that 500k PS3s sold a month is a fair... if not optimistic projection. That would be 6 million units in a year, and we all know the PS3 sells considerably more than that in a year. The PS3 recently reached 27 million units sold, and in under 3 years, so you can see easily that the PS3 is selling better than your hypothesis.

And none of this even takes into account the fact that year on year sales of the consoles don't remain static. Take a look at the PS2. It sold a hair over 9 million consoles in 2001. It sold over 22 million consoles in 2003. If we were to assume all years would be just like 2001, we'd come up with a way deflated idea of the PS2's sales. If we used 2003, we'd way overinflate it.

My Point stands. You simply cannot take any one month and project that out to the life of the console accurately. You really can't even take one year.

You've missed the point entirely. My point isn't to show that the PS3 can or will erase a 6 million console deficit (and I believe the actual gap is more like 7 million) in 12 months. It's merely to show that taking one month and projecting it out over the next year, which is what person after person keeps trying to do, doesn't work. Your PS3 analysis in the quote above would lead an uninformed reader to believe that it would take a herculean feat for the PS3 to average 500k units a month next year... I mean, that is why you put your Wii monthly sales figures in, right? But a simple look at the install base shows an obvious gap between that projection and what the PS3 has already done.

Theoretically, if the PS3 were to outsell the 360 by the same % of units over the next quarter as it did during the last, several million could be shaved off the 360's lead before 2010 arrives. Because that's how heavily backloaded console sales are during a calender year. Do I think that will happen? No. The past 3 months included a great deal of excitement over the new PS3 model and reduced price, and I don't believe that's a reliable set of data to project forward. In fact, my entire point is that there is no such thing as a reliable set of data to project forward with authority. You can look towards trends, but that's about it.

Its not that people are making predictions based on anything. All they are saying is that its unlikely (nay on impossible) that the PS3 will be able to sell 6 million more units than the 360 by the holidays of 2010 and using that 500k/month to demonstrate how improbable it would be.

EDIT and i never said anything about the Wii, that was someone else!

blue_hazy_basic

DOH! Sorry about getting you mixed up with the previous poster. :oops:

I understand the improbability... I agree! But we've several different posters using several different numbers and several different hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the 360 lead is insurmountable within the next several years, if at all. And they have gone about that by taking one month's sales (or the gap between the two consoles for one months) and projecting them forward without any understanding that June (for example) has no relation to the consoles sales in December. They don't even necessarily do well at projecting the sales (or sales gap) of next June!

My point is if I use an incredibly egregious number and extrapolate it over the next 12 months, the PS3 still would not have sold more units than the 360. I dont understand whats so hard about this. h575309

And my point is that there is no reliable number you can extrapolate to determine where the two consoles stand at a set point in the future. And if you take a set of data from the slower sales months (which is 9 months of the year) your number will almost certainly come in below the actual data... assuming other factors (price cuts, titles, accessories) don't alter the reality further. On the flip side, if you use the best sales quarter, or one of the months within, any extrapolation will inflate the actual impact over a year. I understand your skepticism with TC's statement... I share your skepticism with TC's statement. I'm merely pointing out that your projections don't paint any more accurate of a picture than just merely saying "I disagree with TC's prediction". The only purpose behind such "math trips" is to make one prediction look more legitimate with data that is unrepresentative of the real world, and I've provided you with plenty of examples of why such projections don't work.

It isn't hard to understand what you're trying to say. I'm simply saying that making a point, even a good point, backed up with bad data only weakens your position.

[QUOTE="h575309"]

My point is if I use an incredibly egregious number and extrapolate it over the next 12 months, the PS3 still would not have sold more units than the 360. I dont understand whats so hard about this. santoron

And my point is that there is no reliable number you can extrapolate to determine where the two consoles stand at a set point in the future. And if you take a set of data from the slower sales months (which is 9 months of the year) your number will almost certainly come in below the actual data... assuming other factors (price cuts, titles, accessories) don't alter the reality further. On the flip side, if you use the best sales quarter, or one of the months within, any extrapolation will inflate the actual impact over a year. I understand your skepticism with TC's statement... I share your skepticism with TC's statement. I'm merely pointing out that your projections don't paint any more accurate of a picture than just merely saying "I disagree with TC's prediction". The only purpose behind such "math trips" is to make one prediction look more legitimate with data that is unrepresentative of the real world, and I've provided you with plenty of examples of why such projections don't work.

It isn't hard to understand what you're trying to say. I'm simply saying that making a point, even a good point, backed up with bad data only weakens your position.

I don't think anyone's trying to be very accurate. We're all just taking our best guesses based on very loose models. I'm not even saying I'd place bets on what my guess is. As you said, there are too many unknowns and holiday inconsistencies to claim anything definitive.

I can't speak for anyone else, but my math isn't meant to "legitimize" my point or otherwise sell my point as more factual than anyone else's point. I just want to show what my thought process is when coming up with my hunch.

[QUOTE="h575309"]

My point is if I use an incredibly egregious number and extrapolate it over the next 12 months, the PS3 still would not have sold more units than the 360. I dont understand whats so hard about this.

And my point is that there is no reliable number you can extrapolate to determine where the two consoles stand at a set point in the future. And if you take a set of data from the slower sales months (which is 9 months of the year) your number will almost certainly come in below the actual data... assuming other factors (price cuts, titles, accessories) don't alter the reality further. On the flip side, if you use the best sales quarter, or one of the months within, any extrapolation will inflate the actual impact over a year. I understand your skepticism with TC's statement... I share your skepticism with TC's statement. I'm merely pointing out that your projections don't paint any more accurate of a picture than just merely saying "I disagree with TC's prediction". The only purpose behind such "math trips" is to make one prediction look more legitimate with data that is unrepresentative of the real world, and I've provided you with plenty of examples of why such projections don't work.

It isn't hard to understand what you're trying to say. I'm simply saying that making a point, even a good point, backed up with bad data only weakens your position.

Right now there is a 6 million gap between the 2 consoles. (PS3 28 million, 360 34 million units) I think in the US alone this holiday for the months of Oct, Nov and Dec that PS3 will outsell the 360 total by a million consoles for the full holiday season this year.. PS3 is currently selling very stronlgly and outselling the 360 in europe.. A News story earlier today showed that for the first time the PS3 will outsell the Wii in Japan this year for 2009 which is HUGE! Once Final Fantasy XIII comes out next month in Japan PS3 sales will be EPIC.

Going into 2010 Gran Turismo 5 hits and will sell millions of consoles in Europe and Japan and will sell a healthy number of consoles in the US as well. By Summer of 09 the gap between the PS3 and 360 will be down to just 3 millon units. Come November 2010 the PS3 will get a $50.00 price cut (most likely the 360 will yes) however the PS3 with its stellar line up for next year will sell very very good units come next november.. When its all said and done worldwide for 2010, i predict the PS3 will be leading the 360 by ATLEAST 500,000-1 million units.

Right now there is a 6 million gap between the 2 consoles. (PS3 28 million, 360 34 million units) I think in the US alone this holiday for the months of Oct, Nov and Dec that PS3 will outsell the 360 total by a million consoles for the full holiday season this year.. PS3 is currently selling very stronlgly and outselling the 360 in europe.. A News story earlier today showed that for the first time the PS3 will outsell the Wii in Japan this year for 2009 which is HUGE! Once Final Fantasy XIII comes out next month in Japan PS3 sales will be EPIC.

Going into 2010 Gran Turismo 5 hits and will sell millions of consoles in Europe and Japan and will sell a healthy number of consoles in the US as well. By Summer of 09 the gap between the PS3 and 360 will be down to just 3 millon units. Come November 2010 the PS3 will get a $50.00 price cut (most likely the 360 will yes) however the PS3 with its stellar line up for next year will sell very very good units come next november.. When its all said and done worldwide for 2010, i predict the PS3 will be leading the 360 by ATLEAST 500,000-1 million units.

Prepare to be wrong.tylergamereview

[QUOTE="tylergamereview"]Prepare to be wrong.Yojimbo25

now it's only 4 million at this rate the PS3 will outsell the 360 by this Friday :D

[QUOTE="santoron"]

[QUOTE="blue_hazy_basic"] Its not cherry picking a number. The PS3 is just over 6 million behind, therefore to catch up it must outsell the 360 but more than that number. 6million/12=500k. Does it make you feel better if they said "by an average of 500k/month"?blue_hazy_basic

You've missed the point entirely. My point isn't to show that the PS3 can or will erase a 6 million console deficit (and I believe the actual gap is more like 7 million) in 12 months. It's merely to show that taking one month and projecting it out over the next year, which is what person after person keeps trying to do, doesn't work. Your PS3 analysis in the quote above would lead an uninformed reader to believe that it would take a herculean feat for the PS3 to average 500k units a month next year... I mean, that is why you put your Wii monthly sales figures in, right? But a simple look at the install base shows an obvious gap between that projection and what the PS3 has already done.

Theoretically, if the PS3 were to outsell the 360 by the same % of units over the next quarter as it did during the last, several million could be shaved off the 360's lead before 2010 arrives. Because that's how heavily backloaded console sales are during a calender year. Do I think that will happen? No. The past 3 months included a great deal of excitement over the new PS3 model and reduced price, and I don't believe that's a reliable set of data to project forward. In fact, my entire point is that there is no such thing as a reliable set of data to project forward with authority. You can look towards trends, but that's about it.

EDIT and i never said anything about the Wii, that was someone else!