For it to outpace, that means we'd be seeing the NX completely dominate the NPD/Media Create/PAL charts every month.
How is that going to happen, when NX still has to prove they can even get most of the third party devs back? And even when they do come back, the NX is not going to suddenly outsell every PS4/X1 version of these multiplats (can you really see Madden, NBA2K, Need for Speed, etc. selling the most on a Nintendo system, when they are just now preparing a cohesive online account system?) They are late on a lot of things and that's going to hurt them in a lot of ways. "Outpacing" to me means that they skyrocket to #1 in sales (hardware/software) and, considering the popular games that sell a lot right now are COD/AC/sports/etc that make up the bulk of annual revenue and are the beating $$$ heart of the industry, that would mean Nintendo would have to be the king of sales in 90% of those genres. They sure can't be the king of sales based on their 1st party alone, so in order for there to be any wrestling and stealing going on of fanbases, Nintendo would have to the leader in exactly what Sony/MS does better right now. That's a lot of proving to do, from an unproven company that hasn't done as well with multiplat sales.
Now, there's a chance the NX is more powerful than the PS4/X1 (like attaining 1080p/60fps with almost every game). But in order to get that, I'm pretty sure the console would have to be a lot more expensive than $350-$400. Hardware keeps getting better and cheaper to manufacture, yes, but the costs don't change THAT fast.
Let's say NX is a $400-$420 system anyways (420 OH HAHAHA). With the way Nintendo loves to emphasize Amiibo and kiddy stuff (too much, if you ask me, and not enough emphasis on genre balance) it's kind of a weird message to send to consumers: an expensive Nintendo console that hits 1080p/60fps ("see, we make you happy, PC fans!"), but also marketed heavily towards children.The whole result has got a weird shape to it. It's too expensive for kids to ask parents to buy on a whim (NO!). They may want the Amiibos they see in commercials and the cute Nintendo games, but then the parents see the $400+ price for this powerful system and are turned off.
I've always called for Nintendo to make a more powerful system, getting more third-parties, and having a better online system in place. You know, normal things. While my example above of a more powerful system does address those areas, I think Nintendo is starting this too late. The whole timing is off. Publisher/dev loyalty is the weakest of the three. Fans just packed up and done leaved in record speed - that's disturbing. Online system isn't even in the mature phase. And Nintendo's message towards consumers is confusing. They seem to want to emphasize kids even more, according to Miyamoto's statements recently. What about addressing the millions of those who are frustrated/angry/bored with your company? Does the NX finally have something for them, or are you going to leave them with that silent treatment and boring Reggie PR again, and double down on Amiibo, mobile games and a new Yoshi Yarn trilogy? The fundamental pieces just aren't fitting perfectly right now, so I don't see domination being likely.
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