it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out alright.
At the moment, in terms of console sales, i dont think it will be close. it's hard to say at the moment since demand on both sides is greatly outstripping supply and Sony just put in bigger orders for silicon as they expected more demand for the PS5. but by 2026 i think a lot more PS5s will have been sold.
but i dont think MS particularly care either. they want gamepass subs. they want gamepass subs at neflix numbers and they want it available everywhere and on everything. thats their business model. if they can pull that off then they really wont care how many xbox consoles they sell.
in terms of games: MS certainly have some teeth and claws again...on paper at least. ID have consistently delivered great games. Bethesda are a bit more Hit/Miss and lately it's been more misses. Hopefully Starfield is great but its not a sure thing. really the last great game Bethesda made was skyrim (which should have its own dedicated console at this stage :P). They really didnt deliver last gen, with a meh Fallout 4, a shocking fallout 76, skyrim ports and some mobile tat.
the other side is, with MS now pulling Elder scrolls/fallout and such like from Sony/Nintendo, that leaves a gap for those companies to fill in themselves. Sony could very well get one of their studios to roll their sleeves up, take Elder scrolls, and set out to do everything it does...but better (and throw wads of cash at them to do it of course :P). Nintendo may.....actually nintendo remain unconcerned :P.
So yeah i certainly wouldnt go writing anyone off.
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