:lol:@the basic economic mistakes that happened in this thread.SSCyborgLOL at thinking they are 'economic' mistakes:?
Microsoft Q1 2009 Earnings Release (10/23), Xbox 360 Ships 22.5 Million
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2.2 million in 3 months? not bad, but not great. u guys realise the 360 sold 9 million its first 12 months, but in the 23 months since has sold 13 million, and its cheaper. i think the 360 may pass the n64s sales, maybe 35million at the end. darth-pyschosisThey overshipped, WAY overshipped to hit that number
[QUOTE="FirstDiscovery"][QUOTE="SSCyborg"]:lol:@the basic economic mistakes that happened in this thread.SSCyborgLOL at thinking they are 'economic' mistakes:?lawl accountingIt happens, least you manned up:P
Good for Microsoft, I don't understand the reasons behind Sony announcing that huge loss and this in the same day though lol Guess folks just like to kick things when they down. :PCzenkus
Maybe because it's the end of the fiscal quarter and it's time to report to the stockholders?
[QUOTE="DAZZER7"]So they're still making a profit then?SolidTy
As a whole no, that's going to take a LONG time, however, the software is profitable. It's all right there.
so they should just make games for pc then they wouldn't have the huge hardware related losses.
a whole 22 mil wow, nvidia has sold more gaming level gefore 8 series or better. ms would be better off just making games and other software. xbox hardware is doing nothing but costing them lots of money. they make great keyboard/mice and controllers but their costs aren't very good hardware wise and loose them moneyimprezawrx500
i take it you didnt even read the OP?
[QUOTE="RonnieLottinSF"]Well normally there is about a 1 million unit difference between shipped and sold. The 1 million = in the retail chain (either in the MS warehouses ready to be shipped, in the retail warehouses or in transit). Right now MS has shipped 22.5 million (end of September so that means they have already shipped possibly over 23 million) and they have sold around 21.5 to 22 million (in users hand) so they are fine.And how am I being optimistic? MS has shipped 4.4 to 4.5 million units every fiscal Q2 for the last 2 years and this is going to be their best gaming lineup of any holiday season yet. Not to mention they have bundles and the price dropped WW. If anything I'm under cutting what could potentially happen, but I'll stick to what has happened the last 2 years for reference.
As far as XBL gold members go, Maj Nelson said after E3 2007, when MS announced there were 11 or so million XBL members, that 8 or 9 of those members = gold. I'd say there are over 10 million gold members by now at least.
Also when I talk golden years I mean its best years. The PS2, for example, sold the most during its 3rd, 4th, and 5th years. Of course I figured this was obvious, but the main reasons was because the gaming lineup ballons to over 1 thousand and the price continues to drop on a yearly basis, mainly because production costs drop. The two major selling 360 units (pro and elite) haven't even reached the consumer price point in which it really starts to take off of $200 (the pro should be there by next year). Once those two get down to that price point, the 360 should continue to sell very well.
As far as your 33 million number after it is all said and done prediction, like I said before, it is very laughable. By the end of this year, the 360 will have shipped around 27 million units and by the end of next year, it will probably be between 35 to 40 million units shipped, with 2 years left of this generation. More price drops are coming for the system and 2 more Halo games are on the way for the system. That in itself = tons of hardware being moved in the next 3 years. I'm not mentioning all of the other great games coming out for the system in the next few years either. I would be surprised if the 360 didn't ship to retail between 50 to 60 million units by the time its production is stopped. That is a very reasonable number for a system that has on average shipped around 9 million units per year since it launched and will probably be in production a few years after this generation waves bye, bye, since it is making MS money, unlike the original that never got out of the red.
Zhengi
Hmm... I wonder about that. I would surmise they are closer to 21 million rather than 21.5, but that is another issue because we don't have actual numbers of how many of them are in actual stores and how many are in customers' hands.
As for Q2, they definitely have had great sales the last two years, but I wonder if they will sustain those sales this year. The best gaming lineup is all subjective and one might even argue that it isn't as strong as last year. The price drop has actually been effect for most of the year in Europe, Australia, and Japan. It was in the US that we recently got the price drop and the sales of the console hasn't really exploded. Will they help during Christmas? Possibly, but I don't think they'll reach the 4.5 million you are predicting.
Hey, not that I doubt you, but I'd rather see it in their fiscal report rather than having them lump everyone together. It eliminates the guessing of how many people actually signed up, how many decided not to renew, how many aren't paying, etc.
The problem with your golden years example is that the 360 is not the PS2. There is no wave of momentum that is letting it outsell its second year by a lot. There is an increase, but if the increase is only a 6% increase or so, don't expect there to be the same trends as the PS2. In fact, the only one you can really compare to the PS2 is the Wii especially since the Wii is outcharting the PS2 in their respective lifetimes. The 360 is charting just a bit above the N64. That's why when I say 33 million install base, it's not that far off from where it'll end up.
You're just making predictions as well. You're not even sure if they'll ship that many units. If they do, then they're likely stuffing the retail channels again. No way will it reach 35 to 40 million by the end of next year. You're just being too optimistic about it. Price drops can only do so much. It has been shown this year already where the price drop happened in places like Europe where the Wii was more expensive than the 360 and yet the 360 wasn't able to even keep up with the Wii. The price cut helps, but you can only sell as much as demand for the console allows.
As for your projections, I think you are totally off if you believe it'll sell 50 to 60 million. The 360 is not even tracking the same numbers as the SNES and that console sold around 60 million units. At most, the 360 will track around 36 million by the end of its lifetime.
I see you are still in denial.
3 months ago you said there was no way the 360 would hit 25 million by year end. It is now 22.5 and obviously on track to exceed 25 million by year end.
You wonder whether retail sales are 21.5 MM or 21.0 MM, as if that matters in a material way ...LMAO
You wonder whether MS can achieve anywhere near the 4MM+ run rate for their Q2 (Oct-Dec), yet they just sold 2.2M in Q1 and baring an asteroid strike, everyone knows that Oct thru Dec will crush any other period for any console.
You make up some imaginary number of 6% quarter over quarter growth and speculate what that means, but if you spend 3 secs examining the graph in the OP you will notice that unit growth is actually up 20% for the quarter yr/yr
And you think that the 360 will end up at around 33 million, although it is certain to hit 25 million by the end of this year. Meaning that you predict it will only sell 8 MM after Dec 31st.
Frankly, your analysis is laughable.
The division as a whole is still in the red....but unlike before where its losses got greater and greater, now its getting shorter and shorter and could be in the green in another year or 2 years.
I see you are still in denial.3 months ago you said there was no way the 360 would hit 25 million by year end. It is now 22.5 and obviously on track to exceed 25 million by year end.
You wonder whether retail sales are 21.5 MM or 21.0 MM, as if that matters in a material way ...LMAO
You wonder whether MS can achieve anywhere near the 4MM+ run rate for their Q2 (Oct-Dec), yet they just sold 2.2M in Q1 and baring an asteroid strike, everyone knows that Oct thru Dec will crush any other period for any console.
You make up some imaginary number of 6% quarter over quarter growth and speculate what that means, but if you spend 3 secs examining the graph in the OP you will notice that unit growth is actually up 20% for the quarter yr/yr
And you think that the 360 will end up at around 33 million, although it is certain to hit 25 million by the end of this year. Meaning that you predict it will only sell 8 MM after Dec 31st.
Frankly, your analysis is laughable.
SUD123456
I said that? Probably, but you're wrong on one thing. When I talk about sold, I'm saying sold to customers. When you're talking about 22.5 million, those are shipped to retailers. EDIT: In fact, they're right on track to having sold 25 million consoles by the end of this year. Wow, I guess I'm a pretty good predictor.
And yes, it does matter sold vs. shipped. It mattered in 2007 when MS stuffed the retail channels, and it mattered in 1985 when Nintendo first sold its NES. It's always mattered. If retailers can't sell the consoles to customers, why would they order more from the hardware provider. Your insistence that it doesn't means you don't understand sales at all and shouldn't be commenting on it.
And once more, you are wrong. They didn't sell 2.2 million. They shipped 2.2 million. You need to get these two down first correctly before you continue to talk.
And I explained to you why that growth is more this year over last year in a previous post. MS channel stuffed the 360 to reach the 10 million consoles figure. IIRC, from Jan 2007 to Jun 2007, they only shipped 600k units worldwide. It would be a wonder that retailers would order more product from MS when they had so much supply. So the numbers are not a good indication of where normal 360 levels are due to the channel stuffing.
How is it certain to hit 25 million? Is that sold or shipped? I don't think it will sell that many at all. And yeah, it's completely plausible for it to sell 8 million in the next two years. It hasn't exactly been setting the charts on fire with console sales and I don't think it will stay constant. I think sales will begin to dip. I mentioned that it was tracking just a bit above the N64. I think the N64 sold around 34 million. So my estimate might be a little low, but I don't think they will sell above 36 million.
[QUOTE="SUD123456"]I see you are still in denial.3 months ago you said there was no way the 360 would hit 25 million by year end. It is now 22.5 and obviously on track to exceed 25 million by year end.
You wonder whether retail sales are 21.5 MM or 21.0 MM, as if that matters in a material way ...LMAO
You wonder whether MS can achieve anywhere near the 4MM+ run rate for their Q2 (Oct-Dec), yet they just sold 2.2M in Q1 and baring an asteroid strike, everyone knows that Oct thru Dec will crush any other period for any console.
You make up some imaginary number of 6% quarter over quarter growth and speculate what that means, but if you spend 3 secs examining the graph in the OP you will notice that unit growth is actually up 20% for the quarter yr/yr
And you think that the 360 will end up at around 33 million, although it is certain to hit 25 million by the end of this year. Meaning that you predict it will only sell 8 MM after Dec 31st.
Frankly, your analysis is laughable.
Zhengi
I said that? Probably, but you're wrong on one thing. When I talk about sold, I'm saying sold to customers. When you're talking about 22.5 million, those are shipped to retailers. EDIT: In fact, they're right on track to having sold 25 million consoles by the end of this year. Wow, I guess I'm a pretty good predictor.
And yes, it does matter sold vs. shipped. It mattered in 2007 when MS stuffed the retail channels, and it mattered in 1985 when Nintendo first sold its NES. It's always mattered. If retailers can't sell the consoles to customers, why would they order more from the hardware provider. Your insistence that it doesn't means you don't understand sales at all and shouldn't be commenting on it.
And once more, you are wrong. They didn't sell 2.2 million. They shipped 2.2 million. You need to get these two down first correctly before you continue to talk.
And I explained to you why that growth is more this year over last year in a previous post. MS channel stuffed the 360 to reach the 10 million consoles figure. IIRC, from Jan 2007 to Jun 2007, they only shipped 600k units worldwide. It would be a wonder that retailers would order more product from MS when they had so much supply. So the numbers are not a good indication of where normal 360 levels are due to the channel stuffing.
How is it certain to hit 25 million? Is that sold or shipped? I don't think it will sell that many at all. And yeah, it's completely plausible for it to sell 8 million in the next two years. It hasn't exactly been setting the charts on fire with console sales and I don't think it will stay constant. I think sales will begin to dip. I mentioned that it was tracking just a bit above the N64. I think the N64 sold around 34 million. So my estimate might be a little low, but I don't think they will sell above 36 million.
That's what you said 3 months ago..almost word for word. And here you are wrong, again.
MS reported 17.7 MM shipped as of Dec 31st 2007. They now report 22.5MM. A gain of 4.8MM units so far this year and we all Know that half the business is in the last quarter of the year.
Given they have been running at 4MM+ units shipped for Oct-Dec the last two years, it is inconceivable that they won't ship at least 3.5MM more this year. Giving them a minimum 26MM units shipped, on the low end.
Retail inventory is built in Q4 of the year, not earlier. It is hard to believe that MS could significantly stuff the channel this past quarter. But even if they did, it would be self regulating. You could not stuff more in Q4.
Futher, the 20% increase pertains to their Q1 (Jul-Sep) and compares that timeframe in 2008 vs 2007 (which includes Halo 3). Fact is they shipped 20% more in that timeframe than the year before. And none of that has anything to do with poor performance in early 2007.
Most important, you can argue all you want over whether retail inventory is 1.0MM or 1.5MM or 2.0MM units. In the big picture it is irrelevant. You can't build keep building inventory. Moreover, whether you believe they need to sell 8MM or 9MM more units after Dec 31st is a meaningless distinction. Obviously they will sell far more than either.
[QUOTE="DAZZER7"]So they're still making a profit then?Stevo_the_gamerThey make money off each console sold; however, the game division as a whole is still in the red. Microsoft as a whole though, makes billions off its software ect.
no the gam division made 178 million last quarter.
[QUOTE="Zhengi"][QUOTE="SUD123456"]I see you are still in denial.3 months ago you said there was no way the 360 would hit 25 million by year end. It is now 22.5 and obviously on track to exceed 25 million by year end.
You wonder whether retail sales are 21.5 MM or 21.0 MM, as if that matters in a material way ...LMAO
You wonder whether MS can achieve anywhere near the 4MM+ run rate for their Q2 (Oct-Dec), yet they just sold 2.2M in Q1 and baring an asteroid strike, everyone knows that Oct thru Dec will crush any other period for any console.
You make up some imaginary number of 6% quarter over quarter growth and speculate what that means, but if you spend 3 secs examining the graph in the OP you will notice that unit growth is actually up 20% for the quarter yr/yr
And you think that the 360 will end up at around 33 million, although it is certain to hit 25 million by the end of this year. Meaning that you predict it will only sell 8 MM after Dec 31st.
Frankly, your analysis is laughable.
SUD123456
I said that? Probably, but you're wrong on one thing. When I talk about sold, I'm saying sold to customers. When you're talking about 22.5 million, those are shipped to retailers. EDIT: In fact, they're right on track to having sold 25 million consoles by the end of this year. Wow, I guess I'm a pretty good predictor.
And yes, it does matter sold vs. shipped. It mattered in 2007 when MS stuffed the retail channels, and it mattered in 1985 when Nintendo first sold its NES. It's always mattered. If retailers can't sell the consoles to customers, why would they order more from the hardware provider. Your insistence that it doesn't means you don't understand sales at all and shouldn't be commenting on it.
And once more, you are wrong. They didn't sell 2.2 million. They shipped 2.2 million. You need to get these two down first correctly before you continue to talk.
And I explained to you why that growth is more this year over last year in a previous post. MS channel stuffed the 360 to reach the 10 million consoles figure. IIRC, from Jan 2007 to Jun 2007, they only shipped 600k units worldwide. It would be a wonder that retailers would order more product from MS when they had so much supply. So the numbers are not a good indication of where normal 360 levels are due to the channel stuffing.
How is it certain to hit 25 million? Is that sold or shipped? I don't think it will sell that many at all. And yeah, it's completely plausible for it to sell 8 million in the next two years. It hasn't exactly been setting the charts on fire with console sales and I don't think it will stay constant. I think sales will begin to dip. I mentioned that it was tracking just a bit above the N64. I think the N64 sold around 34 million. So my estimate might be a little low, but I don't think they will sell above 36 million.
That's what you said 3 months ago..almost word for word. And here you are wrong, again.
MS reported 17.7 MM shipped as of Dec 31st 2007. They now report 22.5MM. A gain of 4.8MM units so far this year and we all Know that half the business is in the last quarter of the year.
Given they have been running at 4MM+ units shipped for Oct-Dec the last two years, it is inconceivable that they won't ship at least 3.5MM more this year. Giving them a minimum 26MM units shipped, on the low end.
Retail inventory is built in Q4 of the year, not earlier. It is hard to believe that MS could significantly stuff the channel this past quarter. But even if they did, it would be self regulating. You could not stuff more in Q4.
Futher, the 20% increase pertains to their Q1 (Jul-Sep) and compares that timeframe in 2008 vs 2007 (which includes Halo 3). Fact is they shipped 20% more in that timeframe than the year before. And none of that has anything to do with poor performance in early 2007.
Most important, you can argue all you want over whether retail inventory is 1.0MM or 1.5MM or 2.0MM units. In the big picture it is irrelevant. You can't build keep building inventory. Moreover, whether you believe they need to sell 8MM or 9MM more units after Dec 31st is a meaningless distinction. Obviously they will sell far more than either.
How am I wrong? You have to provide evidence to show that I'm wrong.
And once again, I'm talking about sold numbers and not shipped. MS can ship as much as they want just like they channel stuffed to reach 10 million. That doesn't mean they have an install base of 22.5 million. The actual number could be as low as 19 mil for all we know. Nothing I have said has really been proven wrong yet. I don't know what you're getting all bend out of shape for. You can just wait till Dec. comes and goes and you'll see the results. Just because I'm not predicting them to reach more than 33 million doesn't mean that it won't happen.
And I understand what Q1 is. You failed to read my pervious post that from Jan to June, they only shipped 600k because they channel stuffed the retailers during Q2. That's why when July-Sep came along, they couldn't ship more because there was still excessive supply in the retailers. So you can't make an accurate accessment because of the channel stuffing MS did prior to Q1.
No, in the big picture, what is relevant is how many consoles sold to customers. I don't care about shipped numbers. MS can ship 100 million and the number that would matter to me would be the 33 million that were sold to customers. There is no obvious how much they can sell. The sold numbers are only a bit higher than last year. I'm predicting a slow down next year and the year after that will have them making it to 33 million. There is nothing outlandish about that prediction. I mentioned before in the post you ignored that the 360 is not the PS2. It's more like the N64 in sales and will probably end up around the same numbers.
lol they only sent out 2.5 mor million consoles since last year. Didn't they ship in total last year 20 million.The RROD, the wii phenomenon, the sony brand name and people being bias must really be hurting them.too_much_eslim
I think it was at 20 million sold in July so they sold over 2 million consoles in 3 months.. quite impressive for the 360...
Does anybody know how many PS3s have been sold so far?BudsMcGreen
Sony should be posting their earning also very soon.
Im surprised that their Windows OS is still making big profits even when Linux is dominating the Netbook (budget laptop) market. Does anybody even buy netbooks with XP instead of Linux?PandaBear86
my laptop has vista. i think its hp. i've never heard of netbook, and i've never seen linux in action. windows is still doing very well, especially to the general public that doesn't know much about pcs.
[QUOTE="PandaBear86"]Im surprised that their Windows OS is still making big profits even when Linux is dominating the Netbook (budget laptop) market. Does anybody even buy netbooks with XP instead of Linux?thesmiter
my laptop has vista. i think its hp. i've never heard of netbook, and i've never seen linux in action. windows is still doing very well, especially to the general public that doesn't know much about pcs.
"Netbook" is just a term for small laptops that are very cheap, the Asus EeePc being one particular example.
Hmm... I wonder about that. I would surmise they are closer to 21 million rather than 21.5, but that is another issue because we don't have actual numbers of how many of them are in actual stores and how many are in customers' hands.Zhengi
Then why do you keep bringing it up with every post? No one knows for sure how many sold to customer XBOX360s are out there and if you use VGchartz, then I guess you claim I won the argument because according to their numbers the 360 has sold over 21.5 million units to customers, meaning that 1 million in the retail pipeline that I talked about is nearly as accurate as you can get. Any way I go by shipped numbers because that is the only factual evidence we have and all of the companys use this. Sony, Nintendo, MS. All of them only use shipped numbers in their quarter/yearly reports because that is the bottom line.
As for Q2, they definitely have had great sales the last two years, but I wonder if they will sustain those sales this year. The best gaming lineup is all subjective and one might even argue that it isn't as strong as last year. The price drop has actually been effect for most of the year in Europe, Australia, and Japan. It was in the US that we recently got the price drop and the sales of the console hasn't really exploded. Will they help during Christmas? Possibly, but I don't think they'll reach the 4.5 million you are predicting.Zhengi
Well you can predict what you want. I'm going off status quo and that is 4.4 to 4.5 million every year for the last 2 years. This year they have a great lineup of games (the best they have had yet IMO ) and they had a price drop WW, plus very good bundle packages. On top of that they are doing very well in Japan and Europe compared to what they were doing. I see no reason why those numbers would cool. And even if they didn't hit that mark, they would still be up around 4 million at least meaning the 360 would still be around 27 million in shipped units, meaning your 6 million shipped unit prediction for the next 3 to 5 years is just like I said. Laughable at best.
The problem with your golden years example is that the 360 is not the PS2. There is no wave of momentum that is letting it outsell its second year by a lot. There is an increase, but if the increase is only a 6% increase or so, don't expect there to be the same trends as the PS2. In fact, the only one you can really compare to the PS2 is the Wii especially since the Wii is outcharting the PS2 in their respective lifetimes. The 360 is charting just a bit above the N64. That's why when I say 33 million install base, it's not that far off from where it'll end up.Zhengi
Again, you are basically saying that the 360 will ship only 6 million units over the next 3 to 5 years. This just means your inner fanboy is coming out and overruling common sense. Also I never said the 360 was the PS2, otherwise I would be predicting 100+ million units sold, etc. I just used the PS2's golden years as an example, but then again I could use just about any successful console's middle years as an example. The PS2 was just the first one to come to mind. I figured the common sense responses I provided like price cuts, thousands of games in its 3rd, 4th and 5th years, etc would have rung some bells on that note.
You're just making predictions as well. You're not even sure if they'll ship that many units. If they do, then they're likely stuffing the retail channels again. No way will it reach 35 to 40 million by the end of next year. You're just being too optimistic about it. Price drops can only do so much. It has been shown this year already where the price drop happened in places like Europe where the Wii was more expensive than the 360 and yet the 360 wasn't able to even keep up with the Wii. The price cut helps, but you can only sell as much as demand for the console allows.Zhengi
Do you have any proof of MS "stuffing the retail channels"? If they did then please explain the shortages in Japan and Europe, plus shortages earlier this year in America? And again how am I being optimistic? I'm using reference points from the past two Q2s, while you are using nothing to base your predictions off of, except for fanboy pride. I think the 360 has at least another 2 years before it starts its decline, meaning it most likely will hit that 9 million shipped mark for this year and hit it for next year. After that, the decline will most likely start, probably 6 or so million for 2010 and 4 or 5 million for 2011, then a new XBOX will hit and the 360 will remain on store shelves, but it will hit 1 to 2 million units a year before it is discontinued 2 or 3 years after the next XBOX launch.
As for your projections, I think you are totally off if you believe it'll sell 50 to 60 million. The 360 is not even tracking the same numbers as the SNES and that console sold around 60 million units. At most, the 360 will track around 36 million by the end of its lifetime.Zhengi
Actually the 360 is tracking at 9 million shipped units per year and until that number falls off, which probably won't happen until 2010, you can't just up and predict it will with out any evidence. In fact 360 sales have only picked up in areas that were kind of bad of the 360 a year ago (Europe and Japan). They continue to be very good in America.
Some of the cows here need to stop thinking the ps2 or even the playstation brand is unique in having increasing sales towards the end of a console life cycle. All consoles sell better in the years before the next generation is launched. So stop acting like the PS3 will continue on selling and the 360 or Wii wont.
I mean picture it this way, if the PS3 really is following the PS2 path and ends up selling 100m+, then based on the fact it is being marginally outsold right now by the 360 and hugely by the Wii, won't the 360 and the Wii break records aswell?
Unless you're saying only playstations sell towards the end of their life-cycle? :lol:
[QUOTE="Grady420"][QUOTE="Stevo_the_gamer"][QUOTE="RonnieLottinSF"]Microsoft lost billions with the original Xbox and took an additional billion hit with the warranty. They're still in the red. Period.Actually they are in the black. They would be in the red if they were still losing money. The EDD hasn't lost a profit in nearly 2 years and has gained over 1 billion in the last 5 quarters.
UnnDunn
No that is not how it works. Being in the red means your still losing money, they are not. They are in the black, making profit but with that said they still need to make up for the original xbox.
No, they don't. That's not how it works.It does dude,stop kidding yourself.Until MS recovers all that much money,they would have been better off WITHOUT having anything to do with xbox gaming.Now until they do that,xbox cant become a financial success for them.Period.
[QUOTE="Zhengi"]Hmm... I wonder about that. I would surmise they are closer to 21 million rather than 21.5, but that is another issue because we don't have actual numbers of how many of them are in actual stores and how many are in customers' hands.RonnieLottinSF
Then why do you keep bringing it up with every post? No one knows for sure how many sold to customer XBOX360s are out there and if you use VGchartz, then I guess you claim I won the argument because according to their numbers the 360 has sold over 21.5 million units to customers, meaning that 1 million in the retail pipeline that I talked about is nearly as accurate as you can get. Any way I go by shipped numbers because that is the only factual evidence we have and all of the companys use this. Sony, Nintendo, MS. All of them only use shipped numbers in their quarter/yearly reports because that is the bottom line.
I'm not bringing it up to cause any arguments with anyone. I'm just putting out there what I think will happen. You don't really have to reply to it or make an argument about it. And no, Sony and Nintendo go by sold through numbers, which equals sold to customers. MS used to do that, especially in its last fiscal report, but this time, they reverted back to shipped numbers. Sony used to go by shipped numbers as well but they recently made the change to sold through numbers.
[quote="Zhengi"]As for Q2, they definitely have had great sales the last two years, but I wonder if they will sustain those sales this year. The best gaming lineup is all subjective and one might even argue that it isn't as strong as last year. The price drop has actually been effect for most of the year in Europe, Australia, and Japan. It was in the US that we recently got the price drop and the sales of the console hasn't really exploded. Will they help during Christmas? Possibly, but I don't think they'll reach the 4.5 million you are predicting.RonnieLottinSF
Well you can predict what you want. I'm going off status quo and that is 4.4 to 4.5 million every year for the last 2 years. This year they have a great lineup of games (the best they have had yet IMO ) and they had a price drop WW, plus very good bundle packages. On top of that they are doing very well in Japan and Europe compared to what they were doing. I see no reason why those numbers would cool. And even if they didn't hit that mark, they would still be up around 4 million at least meaning the 360 would still be around 27 million in shipped units, meaning your 6 million shipped unit prediction for the next 3 to 5 years is just like I said. Laughable at best.
That's fine, you can go by the status quo, but that's a flawed way to go about it because sales aren't constant. I'm also using historical data to make my predictions. Like I mentioned before, the 360 is tracking a little above the N64. To beat that trend, it'll have to sell more than it is selling right now to even reach that 60 million you're predicting. I think that prediction is pretty far out there, but more power to you if you're right. As for games, the 360 just doesn't have the same kind of appeal as the PS2. They don't have the casual audience, so they're not going to reach 60 million.
The 360 is not going to last another 5 years. This is its 3rd year this holiday season. At most it'll go another 3 years, but I don't think the sales will sustain its levels through these next 2 years.
[quote="Zhengi"]The problem with your golden years example is that the 360 is not the PS2. There is no wave of momentum that is letting it outsell its second year by a lot. There is an increase, but if the increase is only a 6% increase or so, don't expect there to be the same trends as the PS2. In fact, the only one you can really compare to the PS2 is the Wii especially since the Wii is outcharting the PS2 in their respective lifetimes. The 360 is charting just a bit above the N64. That's why when I say 33 million install base, it's not that far off from where it'll end up.RonnieLottinSF
Again, you are basically saying that the 360 will ship only 6 million units over the next 3 to 5 years. This just means your inner fanboy is coming out and overruling common sense. Also I never said the 360 was the PS2, otherwise I would be predicting 100+ million units sold, etc. I just used the PS2's golden years as an example, but then again I could use just about any successful console's middle years as an example. The PS2 was just the first one to come to mind. I figured the common sense responses I provided like price cuts, thousands of games in its 3rd, 4th and 5th years, etc would have rung some bells on that note.
There is nothing fanboyish about it at all. And once again, I'm talking about sell through, not shipped. So I'm guessing they'll ship another 10 mil or so to reach 33 million sold. That is a sensible prediction and nothing to do with fanboyism. If system sales were as simple as providing many price cuts and games, then the Xbox and GameCube would not have failed last gen. It takes casual appeal to reach the heights that the PS2 did or else you get left behind in the crowd.
You also have to take into consideration that the 360 is competing directly against the PS3 for the same market segment. Already the market is segmented there so that there is not enough of a market to reach 60 million. These two will continue to beat each other up while the Wii continues to sell towards 100 million. So it really takes more than just price cuts and games (and the types of games that are currently offered on it) to actually make it to 60 million.
Also, when it comes to sales and market analysis, I leave my inner fanboy at the door because the market really fascinates me and I want to be objective about it. I just really don't see the 360 going above 40 million. Like I mentioned, I give it a high end of 36 million total install base. I'm guessing 33 million will be where they're at. That's good for MS especially since they sold 24 million last gen. Nothing to be ashamed of that.
[quote="Zhengi"]You're just making predictions as well. You're not even sure if they'll ship that many units. If they do, then they're likely stuffing the retail channels again. No way will it reach 35 to 40 million by the end of next year. You're just being too optimistic about it. Price drops can only do so much. It has been shown this year already where the price drop happened in places like Europe where the Wii was more expensive than the 360 and yet the 360 wasn't able to even keep up with the Wii. The price cut helps, but you can only sell as much as demand for the console allows.RonnieLottinSF
Do you have any proof of MS "stuffing the retail channels"? If they did then please explain the shortages in Japan and Europe, plus shortages earlier this year in America? And again how am I being optimistic? I'm using reference points from the past two Q2s, while you are using nothing to base your predictions off of, except for fanboy pride. I think the 360 has at least another 2 years before it starts its decline, meaning it most likely will hit that 9 million shipped mark for this year and hit it for next year. After that, the decline will most likely start, probably 6 or so million for 2010 and 4 or 5 million for 2011, then a new XBOX will hit and the 360 will remain on store shelves, but it will hit 1 to 2 million units a year before it is discontinued 2 or 3 years after the next XBOX launch.
Look at the numbers. They channel stuffed. That's all I can say. I'm not in the mood to go look them up myself at the moment. I will explain the shortages to you. Last year, MS channel stuffed to reach 10 million shipped. However, this created a surplus in the retail chains for their console, so much that MS had to temporary close factories and stopped manufacturing 360s.
As the supply in retail chains began to diminish, MS still had enough manufacturing capacity to ship consoles, but were not back in full production yet. When the holidays came and MS sold 2+ million worldwide, that eliminated the surplus of consoles. As a result, MS needed to bring back those factories they closed temporarily online and start producing more 360s, but since it takes time, there was a temporary shortage this year. Therefore, the channel stuffing last year caused the brief shortage at the beginning of this year.
I'll also take this opportunity to say again I only care about sell through numbers. If you want to talk about shipped numbers, then go for it, but don't assume I'm wrong since you want to concentrate on this and I'm talking about sold through.
[quote="Zhengi"]As for your projections, I think you are totally off if you believe it'll sell 50 to 60 million. The 360 is not even tracking the same numbers as the SNES and that console sold around 60 million units. At most, the 360 will track around 36 million by the end of its lifetime.RonnieLottinSF
Actually the 360 is tracking at 9 million shipped units per year and until that number falls off, which probably won't happen until 2010, you can't just up and predict it will with out any evidence. In fact 360 sales have only picked up in areas that were kind of bad of the 360 a year ago (Europe and Japan). They continue to be very good in America.
Again, I don't care about shipped numbers especially since MS has proven they will stuff the retail channels if it fits their purpose. I'm talking about sold through numbers and it's not going to reach 50 to 60 million sold. But then again, we're both just talking about predictions. We can wait and see what happens though when this gen is over.
I'm not bringing it up to cause any arguments with anyone. I'm just putting out there what I think will happen. You don't really have to reply to it or make an argument about it. And no, Sony and Nintendo go by sold through numbers, which equals sold to customers. MS used to do that, especially in its last fiscal report, but this time, they reverted back to shipped numbers. Sony used to go by shipped numbers as well but they recently made the change to sold through numbers.Zhengi
Sony and Nintendo go by shipped to retail numbers. Sony used to go by manufactured numbers for hardware, but then started going by shipped numbers a few years back when a chief executive at MS called them out on it. None of these companies go by sold to customer in their quarter or yearly reports and that is just a fact.
The 360 is not going to last another 5 years. This is its 3rd year this holiday season. At most it'll go another 3 years, but I don't think the sales will sustain its levels through these next 2 years.Zhengi
Why wouldn't the 360 last? MS is making money off of it. As long as they continue to do that and sales stay in the 1 to 2 million range, they would be stupid to discontinue. Obviously MS is thinking long term for the 360. The evidence is NXE. They are changing the entire dashboard midway through this generation, something that has never happened before.
There is nothing fanboyish about it at all. And once again, I'm talking about sell through, not shipped. So I'm guessing they'll ship another 10 mil or so to reach 33 million sold. That is a sensible prediction and nothing to do with fanboyism. If system sales were as simple as providing many price cuts and games, then the Xbox and GameCube would not have failed last gen. It takes casual appeal to reach the heights that the PS2 did or else you get left behind in the crowd.You also have to take into consideration that the 360 is competing directly against the PS3 for the same market segment. Already the market is segmented there so that there is not enough of a market to reach 60 million. These two will continue to beat each other up while the Wii continues to sell towards 100 million. So it really takes more than just price cuts and games (and the types of games that are currently offered on it) to actually make it to 60 million.
Also, when it comes to sales and market analysis, I leave my inner fanboy at the door because the market really fascinates me and I want to be objective about it. I just really don't see the 360 going above 40 million. Like I mentioned, I give it a high end of 36 million total install base. I'm guessing 33 million will be where they're at. That's good for MS especially since they sold 24 million last gen. Nothing to be ashamed of that.Zhengi
Well I would say it is fanboy banter especially when someone thinks a hot item like the 360 is just going to die sales wise in the middle of its best years. Also some one who thinks the 360 is only going to sell an additional 6 to 9 million units in 3 years after this year. Don't bother responding to this post. Obviously your stance on this matter will never change, no matter how crazy it sounds or how much information I provide to prove you wrong.
Look at the numbers. They channel stuffed. That's all I can say. I'm not in the mood to go look them up myself at the moment. I will explain the shortages to you. Last year, MS channel stuffed to reach 10 million shipped. However, this created a surplus in the retail chains for their console, so much that MS had to temporary close factories and stopped manufacturing 360s.As the supply in retail chains began to diminish, MS still had enough manufacturing capacity to ship consoles, but were not back in full production yet. When the holidays came and MS sold 2+ million worldwide, that eliminated the surplus of consoles. As a result, MS needed to bring back those factories they closed temporarily online and start producing more 360s, but since it takes time, there was a temporary shortage this year. Therefore, the channel stuffing last year caused the brief shortage at the beginning of this year.
I'll also take this opportunity to say again I only care about sell through numbers. If you want to talk about shipped numbers, then go for it, but don't assume I'm wrong since you want to concentrate on this and I'm talking about sold through.Zhengi
Well the only site that claims to have sold through numbers as far as customers go agrees with me, not you. I said normally for any console, there is that 1 million unit cushion between sold through and shipped. Right now that cushion according to VGchartz = about 1 million so if MS is stuffing the channel they sure are doing a piss poor job of it.
Also unless you are going by VGchartz, then you can only go by shipped numbers because that is all Sony, Nintendo and MS go by for obvious reasons.
Again, I don't care about shipped numbers especially since MS has proven they will stuff the retail channels if it fits their purpose. I'm talking about sold through numbers and it's not going to reach 50 to 60 million sold. But then again, we're both just talking about predictions. We can wait and see what happens though when this gen is over.Zhengi
I said 50 to 60 million, not just 60 million. When an item is discontinued, it normally sells through what ever it has shipped. The only items that don't are normally failed items (Dreamcast). The 360 is not failing so when ever it is discontinued, MS will most like stop the production and sell off what ever is left in the retail chain and that will be that so pretty much what ever their end ship numbers are will be sold through numbers in the end.
Also I understand that all you care about is sold through numbers, but unless you consider VGchartz the hardware/software bible, then shipped numbers is all you have. Since shipped numbers are more accurate than sold through numbers and the fact all 3 console makers go by sold to retail numbers in their reports, I go by those numbers, but have fun trying to figure out the exact number sold through. Not even VGchartz can tell you this. Hell not even MS, Sony or Nintendo can give you those numbers since 99.9% of the time when it comes to sales, they deal with the retailer and only the retailer. After that, all 3 of those companies could care less what happens. They have sold their product and have made their money and it is up to the retailer to sell their product to the customer, request more units, etc.
Why wouldn't the 360 last? MS is making money off of it. As long as they continue to do that and sales stay in the 1 to 2 million range, they would be stupid to discontinue. Obviously MS is thinking long term for the 360. The evidence is NXE. They are changing the entire dashboard midway through this generation, something that has never happened before.RonnieLottinSF
Because eventually all things come to an end, and the 360 is not selling anywhere near what the PS2 is to be able to have as long a life as you're saying it will. There's no ands, ifs, or buts about it. And so what if they're releasing NXE? That proves nothing.
Well I would say it is fanboy banter especially when someone thinks a hot item like the 360 is just going to die sales wise in the middle of its best years. Also some one who thinks the 360 is only going to sell an additional 6 to 9 million units in 3 years after this year. Don't bother responding to this post. Obviously your stance on this matter will never change, no matter how crazy it sounds or how much information I provide to prove you wrong.RonnieLottinSF
How is the 360 a hot item? Is it the sales that it put up this year? It's been battered on all sides in every country in the world. There has been no outstanding country that has carried it. I'd say you're more of the fanboy bantering than I am. Once again, the best years of sales is in the early part for consoles, not the latter part. If it were the latter part, than consoles like the Xbox and GC would not die either.
Why don't you respond to the ascertion that I made? The 360 is tracking a bit above the N64. The N64 sold around 34 million. Explain to me how the 360 is supposed to double the N64 numbers if it can't even grossly outsell it. Seriously, you resorting to using the fanboy label just shows you are the fanboy because you'd rather argue that point than argue the points I've made.
Well the only site that claims to have sold through numbers as far as customers go agrees with me, not you. I said normally for any console, there is that 1 million unit cushion between sold through and shipped. Right now that cushion according to VGchartz = about 1 million so if MS is stuffing the channel they sure are doing a piss poor job of it.Also unless you are going by VGchartz, then you can only go by shipped numbers because that is all Sony, Nintendo and MS go by for obvious reasons.RonnieLottinSF
I didn't say they were channel stuffing this year. They channel stuffed last year. Obviously, you weren't here last year when it happened cause you don't know anything about it. Look up the numbers last year because it's obvious you don't know anything about them.
Please, don't even bring up VGChartz. I'm not using their numbers at all.
I said 50 to 60 million, not just 60 million. When an item is discontinued, it normally sells through what ever it has shipped. The only items that don't are normally failed items (Dreamcast). The 360 is not failing so when ever it is discontinued, MS will most like stop the production and sell off what ever is left in the retail chain and that will be that so pretty much what ever their end ship numbers are will be sold through numbers in the end.Also I understand that all you care about is sold through numbers, but unless you consider VGchartz the hardware/software bible, then shipped numbers is all you have. Since shipped numbers are more accurate than sold through numbers and the fact all 3 console makers go by sold to retail numbers in their reports, I go by those numbers, but have fun trying to figure out the exact number sold through. Not even VGchartz can tell you this. Hell not even MS, Sony or Nintendo can give you those numbers since 99.9% of the time when it comes to sales, they deal with the retailer and only the retailer. After that, all 3 of those companies could care less what happens. They have sold their product and have made their money and it is up to the retailer to sell their product to the customer, request more units, etc.
RonnieLottinSF
Even if it's 50 million, they're not going to reach that number. Only a few consoles have made it to that number. The NES, SNES, Genesis, PS1, and PS2. 50 million is not an easy number to reach. The 360 will not reach that number, even if MS doesn't discontinue it. There has to be a demand for the console to reach that number and the sales numbers don't show that they'll ever reach that number.
You're basing everything on your belief that all numbers will be constant from year to year. This is not the case. The number for sales decreases as the life of the console continues. It has happened in every gen to every console. Explain to me how this will not happen to the 360. We're passing through the midpoint of the 360's life. I don't believe it will sell as much as you're hoping it does.
And you're absolutely clueless if you don't think any of the three companies don't care about their products selling to customers. If the retailers don't sell them, why would they continue ordering more product from them? If the retailers don't order from them, then they don't make money. This is basic 101 business stuff we're talking about here. This is without even mentioning that the customers who buy these systems buy software and they make money off of that.
Once again, nowhere have I ever cited VGChartz. Stop assuming I'm using numbers from there.
[QUOTE="RonnieLottinSF"]Why wouldn't the 360 last? MS is making money off of it. As long as they continue to do that and sales stay in the 1 to 2 million range, they would be stupid to discontinue. Obviously MS is thinking long term for the 360. The evidence is NXE. They are changing the entire dashboard midway through this generation, something that has never happened before.Zhengi
Because eventually all things come to an end, and the 360 is not selling anywhere near what the PS2 is to be able to have as long a life as you're saying it will. There's no ands, ifs, or buts about it. And so what if they're releasing NXE? That proves nothing.
Well I would say it is fanboy banter especially when someone thinks a hot item like the 360 is just going to die sales wise in the middle of its best years. Also some one who thinks the 360 is only going to sell an additional 6 to 9 million units in 3 years after this year. Don't bother responding to this post. Obviously your stance on this matter will never change, no matter how crazy it sounds or how much information I provide to prove you wrong.RonnieLottinSF
How is the 360 a hot item? Is it the sales that it put up this year? It's been battered on all sides in every country in the world. There has been no outstanding country that has carried it. I'd say you're more of the fanboy bantering than I am. Once again, the best years of sales is in the early part for consoles, not the latter part. If it were the latter part, than consoles like the Xbox and GC would not die either.
Why don't you respond to the ascertion that I made? The 360 is tracking a bit above the N64. The N64 sold around 34 million. Explain to me how the 360 is supposed to double the N64 numbers if it can't even grossly outsell it. Seriously, you resorting to using the fanboy label just shows you are the fanboy because you'd rather argue that point than argue the points I've made.
Well the only site that claims to have sold through numbers as far as customers go agrees with me, not you. I said normally for any console, there is that 1 million unit cushion between sold through and shipped. Right now that cushion according to VGchartz = about 1 million so if MS is stuffing the channel they sure are doing a piss poor job of it.Also unless you are going by VGchartz, then you can only go by shipped numbers because that is all Sony, Nintendo and MS go by for obvious reasons.RonnieLottinSF
I didn't say they were channel stuffing this year. They channel stuffed last year. Obviously, you weren't here last year when it happened cause you don't know anything about it. Look up the numbers last year because it's obvious you don't know anything about them.
Please, don't even bring up VGChartz. I'm not using their numbers at all.
I said 50 to 60 million, not just 60 million. When an item is discontinued, it normally sells through what ever it has shipped. The only items that don't are normally failed items (Dreamcast). The 360 is not failing so when ever it is discontinued, MS will most like stop the production and sell off what ever is left in the retail chain and that will be that so pretty much what ever their end ship numbers are will be sold through numbers in the end.Also I understand that all you care about is sold through numbers, but unless you consider VGchartz the hardware/software bible, then shipped numbers is all you have. Since shipped numbers are more accurate than sold through numbers and the fact all 3 console makers go by sold to retail numbers in their reports, I go by those numbers, but have fun trying to figure out the exact number sold through. Not even VGchartz can tell you this. Hell not even MS, Sony or Nintendo can give you those numbers since 99.9% of the time when it comes to sales, they deal with the retailer and only the retailer. After that, all 3 of those companies could care less what happens. They have sold their product and have made their money and it is up to the retailer to sell their product to the customer, request more units, etc.
RonnieLottinSF
Even if it's 50 million, they're not going to reach that number. Only a few consoles have made it to that number. The NES, SNES, Genesis, PS1, and PS2. 50 million is not an easy number to reach. The 360 will not reach that number, even if MS doesn't discontinue it. There has to be a demand for the console to reach that number and the sales numbers don't show that they'll ever reach that number.
You're basing everything on your belief that all numbers will be constant from year to year. This is not the case. The number for sales decreases as the life of the console continues. It has happened in every gen to every console. Explain to me how this will not happen to the 360. We're passing through the midpoint of the 360's life. I don't believe it will sell as much as you're hoping it does.
And you're absolutely clueless if you don't think any of the three companies don't care about their products selling to customers. If the retailers don't sell them, why would they continue ordering more product from them? If the retailers don't order from them, then they don't make money. This is basic 101 business stuff we're talking about here. This is without even mentioning that the customers who buy these systems buy software and they make money off of that.
Once again, nowhere have I ever cited VGChartz. Stop assuming I'm using numbers from there.
Zhengi, can I ask you 1 question then? If the 360 is following a similar route as the N64 based on the sales so far, then how is the PS3 selling?
ZhengiYou do realise that unlike the Nintendo 64, MS has all the games and we cant see it simply stop selling in its last two years or so.
I think theyll hit 35 million, but 40 million isnt a stretch
See unlike other generations, this is a VERY hotly contested one, MS and Sony are at each others necks, and console sales will remain steady. There is dominant console, and the Wii is simply in its own league, it doesnt affect the 360 or PS3 (or not anymore after converting the standard gamer into the casual).Even if it's 50 million, they're not going to reach that number. Only a few consoles have made it to that number. The NES, SNES, Genesis, PS1, and PS2. 50 million is not an easy number to reach. The 360 will not reach that number, even if MS doesn't discontinue it. There has to be a demand for the console to reach that number and the sales numbers don't show that they'll ever reach that number.
You're basing everything on your belief that all numbers will be constant from year to year. This is not the case. The number for sales decreases as the life of the console continues. It has happened in every gen to every console. Explain to me how this will not happen to the 360. We're passing through the midpoint of the 360's life. I don't believe it will sell as much as you're hoping it does.
And you're absolutely clueless if you don't think any of the three companies don't care about their products selling to customers. If the retailers don't sell them, why would they continue ordering more product from them? If the retailers don't order from them, then they don't make money. This is basic 101 business stuff we're talking about here. This is without even mentioning that the customers who buy these systems buy software and they make money off of that.
Once again, nowhere have I ever cited VGChartz. Stop assuming I'm using numbers from there.
Zhengi
The whole bell curve is terrible flawed, please dont use that. In fact, most consoles sell steady month by month and then in the holiday shoot up. This trend carries on for the next few years. In the case of the PS2, it was WIDLY popular, by the 4/5th year, its safe to assume whoever wanted one, had one, so you can expect it to go down in its last few years
Again, thats different this gen, Sony and MS are going to fight it right to the end, and while sales might go down a little bit, dont expect them to drop off. Also, both MS and Sony are going to be supporting the consoles or at least producing them for a while afterwards. For Sony its getting Blu-Ray to people, and for MS its pushing their online strategy, but also a console that makes profit per console sold (and with a CP/GPU chip coming thats set to drive costs way down)
Zhengi, can I ask you 1 question then? If the 360 is following a similar route as the N64 based on the sales so far, then how is the PS3 selling? DAZZER7
At the moment, the PS3 is tracking a bit above the GameCube and perhaps the original Xbox. Unless there's a big surge, it'll probably end up mid 20 million or so.
You do realise that unlike the Nintendo 64, MS has all the games and we cant see it simply stop selling in its last two years or so.[QUOTE="Zhengi"]FirstDiscovery
I think theyll hit 35 million, but 40 million isnt a stretch
What are all the games? I didn't see that many games announced on TGS for the 360. Not everyone fully supports it. In fact, I have seen nothing to prove that it'll continue selling at a constant rate. It has definitely been outselling last year's rate, but I don't see it maintaining it next year.
[QUOTE="Zhengi"]See unlike other generations, this is a VERY hotly contested one, MS and Sony are at each others necks, and console sales will remain steady. There is dominant console, and the Wii is simply in its own league, it doesnt affect the 360 or PS3 (or not anymore after converting the standard gamer into the casual).Even if it's 50 million, they're not going to reach that number. Only a few consoles have made it to that number. The NES, SNES, Genesis, PS1, and PS2. 50 million is not an easy number to reach. The 360 will not reach that number, even if MS doesn't discontinue it. There has to be a demand for the console to reach that number and the sales numbers don't show that they'll ever reach that number.
You're basing everything on your belief that all numbers will be constant from year to year. This is not the case. The number for sales decreases as the life of the console continues. It has happened in every gen to every console. Explain to me how this will not happen to the 360. We're passing through the midpoint of the 360's life. I don't believe it will sell as much as you're hoping it does.
And you're absolutely clueless if you don't think any of the three companies don't care about their products selling to customers. If the retailers don't sell them, why would they continue ordering more product from them? If the retailers don't order from them, then they don't make money. This is basic 101 business stuff we're talking about here. This is without even mentioning that the customers who buy these systems buy software and they make money off of that.
Once again, nowhere have I ever cited VGChartz. Stop assuming I'm using numbers from there.
FirstDiscovery
The whole bell curve is terrible flawed, please dont use that. In fact, most consoles sell steady month by month and then in the holiday shoot up. This trend carries on for the next few years. In the case of the PS2, it was WIDLY popular, by the 4/5th year, its safe to assume whoever wanted one, had one, so you can expect it to go down in its last few years
Again, thats different this gen, Sony and MS are going to fight it right to the end, and while sales might go down a little bit, dont expect them to drop off. Also, both MS and Sony are going to be supporting the consoles or at least producing them for a while afterwards. For Sony its getting Blu-Ray to people, and for MS its pushing their online strategy, but also a console that makes profit per console sold (and with a CP/GPU chip coming thats set to drive costs way down)
I already mentioned that there is a hotly contested battle for the same market segment between the 360 and PS3. Do you really beileve that one will outlandishly outsell the other? These two will keep fighting each other so much that I doubt one would have the advantage over the other, especially with there being so many multiplats instead of exclusives to differentiate the two. This is part of the reason why I think Ronnie's claims are way out there that the 360 will sell 50 to 60 million.
Once again, the 360 is NOT the PS2. For a console to be "WIDLY" popular, as you put it, it has to sell as well as the PS2. The only console that is doing that is the Wii. The 360 will not do the same numbers or follow the same trend. Let me ask you then if the whole bell curve is terribly flawed. What trend does the Xbox and GameCube follow? How do you explain the demise of these two consoles if the whole bell curve is flawed? How do you explain the PS2 outlasting both the Xbox and GameCube and is in its 7th year of existance?
As for the number of years, this gen can possibly go for another 3 years for MS and Sony probably will make good with its 10 year pledge with the PS3. However, there has to be a demand for the systems for them to continue selling. What good would it do for MS to continue selling the 360 or online if the demand for the 360 isn't there? What indications has MS given that they would continue supporting the 360 if the console sales go down? Why would they continue supporting the 360 during its dwindling years when they can release a newer console by that time to once again get a head start on the competition and seize the opportunity to try to capture the casual crowd?
Right thats plain outright denial. Currently when it comes to games, 360 is where its at, developers are shooting themselves in the foot if they dont suport the 360.What are all the games? I didn't see that many games announced on TGS for the 360. Not everyone fully supports it. In fact, I have seen nothing to prove that it'll continue selling at a constant rate. It has definitely been outselling last year's rate, but I don't see it maintaining it next year.
Zhengi
[QUOTE="Zhengi"]See unlike other generations, this is a VERY hotly contested one, MS and Sony are at each others necks, and console sales will remain steady. There is dominant console, and the Wii is simply in its own league, it doesnt affect the 360 or PS3 (or not anymore after converting the standard gamer into the casual).Even if it's 50 million, they're not going to reach that number. Only a few consoles have made it to that number. The NES, SNES, Genesis, PS1, and PS2. 50 million is not an easy number to reach. The 360 will not reach that number, even if MS doesn't discontinue it. There has to be a demand for the console to reach that number and the sales numbers don't show that they'll ever reach that number.
You're basing everything on your belief that all numbers will be constant from year to year. This is not the case. The number for sales decreases as the life of the console continues. It has happened in every gen to every console. Explain to me how this will not happen to the 360. We're passing through the midpoint of the 360's life. I don't believe it will sell as much as you're hoping it does.
And you're absolutely clueless if you don't think any of the three companies don't care about their products selling to customers. If the retailers don't sell them, why would they continue ordering more product from them? If the retailers don't order from them, then they don't make money. This is basic 101 business stuff we're talking about here. This is without even mentioning that the customers who buy these systems buy software and they make money off of that.
Once again, nowhere have I ever cited VGChartz. Stop assuming I'm using numbers from there.
FirstDiscovery
The whole bell curve is terrible flawed, please dont use that. In fact, most consoles sell steady month by month and then in the holiday shoot up. This trend carries on for the next few years. In the case of the PS2, it was WIDLY popular, by the 4/5th year, its safe to assume whoever wanted one, had one, so you can expect it to go down in its last few years
Again, thats different this gen, Sony and MS are going to fight it right to the end, and while sales might go down a little bit, dont expect them to drop off. Also, both MS and Sony are going to be supporting the consoles or at least producing them for a while afterwards. For Sony its getting Blu-Ray to people, and for MS its pushing their online strategy, but also a console that makes profit per console sold (and with a CP/GPU chip coming thats set to drive costs way down)
I already mentioned that there is a hotly contested battle for the same market segment between the 360 and PS3. Do you really beileve that one will outlandishly outsell the other? These two will keep fighting each other so much that I doubt one would have the advantage over the other, especially with there being so many multiplats instead of exclusives to differentiate the two. This is part of the reason why I think Ronnie's claims are way out there that the 360 will sell 50 to 60 million.
Once again, the 360 is NOT the PS2. For a console to be "WIDLY" popular, as you put it, it has to sell as well as the PS2. The only console that is doing that is the Wii. The 360 will not do the same numbers or follow the same trend. Let me ask you then if the whole bell curve is terribly flawed. What trend does the Xbox and GameCube follow? How do you explain the demise of these two consoles if the whole bell curve is flawed? How do you explain the PS2 outlasting both the Xbox and GameCube and is in its 7th year of existance?
As for the number of years, this gen can possibly go for another 3 years for MS and Sony probably will make good with its 10 year pledge with the PS3. However, there has to be a demand for the systems for them to continue selling. What good would it do for MS to continue selling the 360 or online if the demand for the 360 isn't there? What indications has MS given that they would continue supporting the 360 if the console sales go down? Why would they continue supporting the 360 during its dwindling years when they can release a newer console by that time to once again get a head start on the competition and seize the opportunity to try to capture the casual crowd?
So the bell curve is correct and you assume the 360 is at its peak despite selling MORE this year:?[QUOTE="Zhengi"]Right thats plain outright denial. Currently when it comes to games, 360 is where its at, developers are shooting themselves in the foot if they dont suport the 360.What are all the games? I didn't see that many games announced on TGS for the 360. Not everyone fully supports it. In fact, I have seen nothing to prove that it'll continue selling at a constant rate. It has definitely been outselling last year's rate, but I don't see it maintaining it next year.
FirstDiscovery
If that is the case, then why was TGS so dismal for the 360? No one is saying they're not supporting the 360. They're just not getting the type of support that a successful console like the PS2 is getting.
So the bell curve is correct and you assume the 360 is at its peak despite selling MORE this year:?FirstDiscovery
You haven't proven that it's wrong. I gave you examples of two previous consoles that followed the same trend. What you're purposing bucks trends that have been going on for 20 years. What argument or proof do you have that the 360 will not curve downards?
And yes, it's reaching its peak. What's so hard to believe about that? This is going to be the 360's 3rd year. It's the midway point or getting past that midway point.
[QUOTE="FirstDiscovery"][QUOTE="Zhengi"]Right thats plain outright denial. Currently when it comes to games, 360 is where its at, developers are shooting themselves in the foot if they dont suport the 360.What are all the games? I didn't see that many games announced on TGS for the 360. Not everyone fully supports it. In fact, I have seen nothing to prove that it'll continue selling at a constant rate. It has definitely been outselling last year's rate, but I don't see it maintaining it next year.
Zhengi
If that is the case, then why was TGS so dismal for the 360? No one is saying they're not supporting the 360. They're just not getting the type of support that a successful console like the PS2 is getting.
So the bell curve is correct and you assume the 360 is at its peak despite selling MORE this year:?FirstDiscovery
You haven't proven that it's wrong. I gave you examples of two previous consoles that followed the same trend. What you're purposing bucks trends that have been going on for 20 years. What argument or proof do you have that the 360 will not curve downards?
And yes, it's reaching its peak. What's so hard to believe about that? This is going to be the 360's 3rd year. It's the midway point or getting past that midway point.
TGS = Japanese support. 360 is doing **** in Japan...but hey you know what? IT's still getting FF13, Tekken and RE5...HUGE JPN franchises. So this thing about "where are the games" is BS. PS3 ain't getting much support either..they all rather support the trash fest that is the wii.
[QUOTE="Zhengi"][QUOTE="FirstDiscovery"][QUOTE="Zhengi"]Right thats plain outright denial. Currently when it comes to games, 360 is where its at, developers are shooting themselves in the foot if they dont suport the 360.What are all the games? I didn't see that many games announced on TGS for the 360. Not everyone fully supports it. In fact, I have seen nothing to prove that it'll continue selling at a constant rate. It has definitely been outselling last year's rate, but I don't see it maintaining it next year.
Kratos_OMEGA
If that is the case, then why was TGS so dismal for the 360? No one is saying they're not supporting the 360. They're just not getting the type of support that a successful console like the PS2 is getting.
So the bell curve is correct and you assume the 360 is at its peak despite selling MORE this year:?FirstDiscovery
You haven't proven that it's wrong. I gave you examples of two previous consoles that followed the same trend. What you're purposing bucks trends that have been going on for 20 years. What argument or proof do you have that the 360 will not curve downards?
And yes, it's reaching its peak. What's so hard to believe about that? This is going to be the 360's 3rd year. It's the midway point or getting past that midway point.
TGS = Japanese support. 360 is doing **** in Japan...but hey you know what? IT's still getting FF13, Tekken and RE5...HUGE JPN franchises. So this thing about "where are the games" is BS. PS3 ain't getting much support either..they all rather support the trash fest that is the wii.
It is getting those, but they're also coming out on the PS3. If you would have read my previous posts, I've mentioned that the 360 and PS3 are both sharing multiplats and it's the exclusives that really sell consoles.
And Japanese support is no good now or something? It's as important as Western support. Also, my "where are the games" is in comparison to the PS2. I'm not making the comparison to the PS3. If you compare the 360 to the PS2, it's really lacking and thus the 360 isn't selling anywhere near what the PS2 does in terms of hardware.
Also, since the Wii is getting more support, it'll start going from trash to gold soon ;)
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