I am talking about failure to win the console war this generation and the next one as well.
1) Worldwide install base. Will the 360's one year advantage in coming out early make up for 5 years of disadvantage in hardware reliability, power, features, and momentum? The answer is a resounding no. Read about respected analysts' predictions of the world-wide insall base for current-gen consoles. The 360 will come in last, by vary large margins. Better yet, read up on how the 360 has been taking a whipping on worldwide sales every month so far in 2008, and this is before the busy holiday season.
2) Games. Will the 360 be able to maintain its lead in games despite the PS3's better hardware and Sony's investment in 1st and 2nd party exclusives? The answer is again a resounding no. The 360's advantage in games is shrinking very fast while the PS3's advantage in bigger and more advanced games are becomng more and more apparent.
The following are advantages the 360 no longer enjoys:
a. Mulitplatform games no longer look and play better on the 360. Developers have now mastered the PS3's complicated architechure. In many cases, the standard hard disk drive and dedicated servers actually allow games to run smoother on the PS3.
b. In game XMB is now availbe on the PS3.
c. Trophies, a better version of the 360's achievements, are now being implented in PS3 games.
The following are advantages the PS3 enjoys and will continue to do so:
a. A hardware better designed for bigger and more advanced games. With the very powerful Cell, the large capaciity Blu-ray disk, and a standard hard disk drive, the PS3's games look better, sound better and play bigger. Do your own research on the intenet, and you will agree that, overall, the PS3 has the best animation, sounds, and photorealism. It also has the largest multiplayer size, game environments, etc. Take your fanboy goggles off, please, while you are doing that.
b. 1st and 2nd party exclusives. Sony invested much, much more on 1st and 2nd party studios and have smartly shared development technologies among the studios. There is no question that the best exclusives in 2008 are on the PS3, and judging by the showings in E3, 2009 exclusives will favor the PS3 as well. To get enough exclusive games on their console, Microsoft has to rely on 3rd parties, paying large amounts of cash for timed exclusives.The drawback for this strategy is that after the exlusive periods are over, the games are ported the PS3 looking better and having more content. Just a few examples include Oblivion, Bioshock, and Eternal Sonata. Another problem is that this generation will last longer than the last one. As such, it's the PS3 that will likely have the best versions of the best multiplatform games in the long run. Even assuming multiplatform games are about even between the 360 and the PS3, exclusive games will give the PS3 the amunition for total domintion over the 360.
c. Large multiplayer games that look good and play well. The PS3's power and more liberal use of dedicated servers allow developers to make multiplayer games that have a huger number of players while making the graphics to look as good as the single player. The same cannot be said for the 360.
3) Features for mass market appeal. Will the 360 have what it take to reach mass market acceptance? The answer is a resounding no. The vast majority of gamers, even those who like hardcore games, play less than 1 new game per month, and as such, they will not pay for LIVE, not when there are so many other options out there. Microsoft's Don Mattrick must be mad in a delusional sense for him get on stage and declared the 360 will beat the PS3 in worldwide install base. I am declaring it now: as long as Microsoft charges for LIVE, the Xbox platform will never be a winner in any generation. It's just common sense.
Xbox 360's lack of a Blu-ray player also makes it less attractive to casuals and hardcore gamers. Casuals may like movies even more than games. So when they get into the next generation gaming, they might as well buy spend an extra $100 dollars to get the most powerful console that can play the best versions of the movies. Advantage: PS3.
4) Future outlook for Xbox 360. Unfortunately for Microsoft, this generation, out of necessity, will last longer than the last one. Developers investing in gaming technologies have barely begun to reap the benefits of their investments. Gaming budgets are already approaching movie budgets. To make games look, sound, and play much better than the best PS3 games 3 years form now, the next generation budgets might as well equal movie budgets. Also, next-gen console prices will have to be much higher than the cheapest 360 or PS3, making gamers more reluctant to jump into the next-generation as well. And so, with each passing year, the Xbox 360 will look more and more outdated, unable to play the biggest muliplayer action games, best looking games, the best sounding games, best movies, etc.
5) Future oulook for Xbox 720 and PS4. Current generation games on the PS3 and the 360 looks good enough now that they will have a longer playing life span than last generation's games. (Even Resident evil 4 on the gamecube still looks good enough to gamers to enjoy without being bothered by graphics technologies.) Because current-gen games will have a longer playing life span, world-wide install base this generation will be very important for next generation success. Why? Current-gen contents (gaming, movies, etc.) hold more personal value for the gamers this time and they will want to hold on to these contents ino the next-generation. So, 360 and PS3 owners will more likley chose the next versions of their respective consoles. As such, Xbox 720 will start the next generation with a disadvantage.
In other words: LIVE, unreliablity, less powerful feaures, and lack of Blu-ray means the 360 will have a smaller insall base, which means the next Xbox will start out with less support than the PS4. So, is Microsoft's strategy for Xbox 360 a failure? In the scope of the console wars, the answer is a resounding yes.
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