New Super Mario Bros Wii WILL Outsell Modern Warfare 2!!!

If Mario Galaxy can't outsell MW2, NSMB can't either. The only was it would is if it were bundled with Wii's.

[QUOTE="Pixel-Pirate"]

[QUOTE="Pices"] Low AA? Its almost an AAA title, I don't know whats up with you. Oh, and Galaxy did beat Halo 3 and GOW....in reviewsPices

I'm surprised I missed this. According to Wikipedia Gears has sold 5 million (may include PC version). SMG has sold 8.02 million. Halo 3 sold 8.01 million. To be fair these arn't entirely up to date (their dated like july), so Halo 3 may be ahead now. I doubt Gears 1 has sold several million more in a few months what with it being an older game.

Is that 10 million shipped or sold though?

I know Nintendo lists sold numbers, MS and Sony uses shipped (sony at one time uses "in the pipeline" number to really fudge things).

[QUOTE="farnham"][QUOTE="BodyElite"]No, an exclusive AA game WILL NOT outsell a multiplatform AAA ultra-hyped title... NSMB wont even come close to outselling Halo 3, which is also on only one console.BodyElite

Last time I checked, New Super Mario Bros. Wii was a high AA title. Furthermore, Super Mario Galaxy is ahead of Gears of War and Gears of War 2 by a wider margin than it is behind Halo 3. Facts FTW.

It will be close. I expect at least 20 million for both of them. Modern Warfare 2 is currently about 9 million ahead already so it will definitely win the holidays.

[QUOTE="Pices"][QUOTE="Pixel-Pirate"]

I'm surprised I missed this. According to Wikipedia Gears has sold 5 million (may include PC version). SMG has sold 8.02 million. Halo 3 sold 8.01 million. To be fair these arn't entirely up to date (their dated like july), so Halo 3 may be ahead now. I doubt Gears 1 has sold several million more in a few months what with it being an older game.

StryderK

Is that 10 million shipped or sold though?

I know Nintendo lists sold numbers, MS and Sony uses shipped (sony at one time uses "in the pipeline" number to really fudge things).

If Mario Galaxy can't outsell MW2, NSMB can't either. The only was it would is if it were bundled with Wii's.

Vaasman

Many people don't realise this, but in terms of popularity it goes 2D Mario>Mario Kart>>>>>>>>>>>3D Mario.

[QUOTE="Vaasman"]If Mario Galaxy can't outsell MW2, NSMB can't either. The only was it would is if it were bundled with Wii's.EliteKitteh

Judging from the DS, that sounds about right. :P

[QUOTE="EliteKitteh"][QUOTE="Vaasman"]If Mario Galaxy can't outsell MW2, NSMB can't either. The only was it would is if it were bundled with Wii's.Hexagon_777

Judging from the DS, that sounds about right. :P

[QUOTE="Hexagon_777"][QUOTE="EliteKitteh"]Many people don't realise this, but in terms of popularity it goes 2D Mario>Mario Kart>>>>>>>>>>>3D Mario.Vaasman

The DS has about double the user base of the Wii, correct, but New Super Mario Bros. has sold significantly more than double of Super Mario Galaxy.

no it wont and it doesnt deserve to. super mario galaxy 2 though might

[QUOTE="StryderK"]

[QUOTE="Pices"] Halo 3 sold 10 millionraskullibur

Is that 10 million shipped or sold though?

I know Nintendo lists sold numbers, MS and Sony uses shipped (sony at one time uses "in the pipeline" number to really fudge things).

HeHe...Fanboyz are so funny sometimes....They tend to get their panties into a wad sometimes for nothing!

Did I even say Nintendo is a "Legit" company? No! So why all of a sudden "off to another tangent".

Fact: It is known Sony and MS uses SHIPPED numbers to pad their numbers.

FACT: It is known Nintendo uses sold to customer numbers. Which is more realistic.

FACT: It is KNOWN during the PS3 worst days back in 2006, Sony even resorted to "In-the pipeline" numbers to really fudge things (i.e. anything parts that belong to the PS3 is calculated as a "PS3").

So, this is a legitamite question, as sold to customers and SHIPPED to reataliors are two different numbers!

[QUOTE="Hexagon_777"]

[QUOTE="EliteKitteh"]Many people don't realise this, but in terms of popularity it goes 2D Mario>Mario Kart>>>>>>>>>>>3D Mario.Vaasman

Judging from the DS, that sounds about right. :P

There's the problem, there is a point where games hit aplateau and run out of potential buyers. Its called hitting the ceiling and its incredibly impressivve. Not considering 20 million units shifted impressive because it sells to 20% of the user base is crazy.

Man....you cant beat 3 sytems and millions of marketing, no way not possible, not even for mario.dakan45

Again, it all comes down to if you put a time limit on things.

MW2 gonna have a very very short "Shelf-Life", at most, to this time next year, when the next CoD game comes out. Then MW2 is basically considered dead on the shelf....

NSBM? Not likely! I mean, 5 years from its original DS release, it still sellsan average of around 250K a months! That's NUTS! If NSBM2: Wii get even half of that legs, then 5 years from now, I can forsee NSBM Wii life time sales totally outrange MW3, 3 platforms not withstanding. Because 5 years from now, no one would even mention MW2!

Man....you cant beat 3 sytems and millions of marketing, no way not possible, not even for mario.dakan45

Why not? It's already done it twice before this gen alone...

[QUOTE="dakan45"]Man....you cant beat 3 sytems and millions of marketing, no way not possible, not even for mario.StryderK

Again, it all comes down to if you put a time limit on things.

MW2 gonna have a very very short "Shelf-Life", at most, to this time next year, when the next CoD game comes out. Then MW2 is basically considered dead on the shelf....

NSBM? Not likely! I mean, 5 years from its original DS release, it still sellsan average of around 250K a months! That's NUTS! If NSBM2: Wii get even half of that legs, then 5 years from now, I can forsee NSBM Wii life time sales totally outrange MW3, 3 platforms not withstanding. Because 5 years from now, no one would even mention MW2!

Excuse me but no. COD4 still charts on NPD and Media Create charts every month. Its been selling consistently for the last 2 years. Let's not make up crap. NSMB is a beast but its one of a kind. There is no gaurentee NSMBWii will do the same. Its best bet is its a Nintendo game but there is no evidence it will pull a Mario Kart and not a SMG.

[QUOTE="Vaasman"]

[QUOTE="Hexagon_777"]

Judging from the DS, that sounds about right. :P

ActicEdge

There's the problem, there is a point where games hit aplateau and run out of potential buyers. Its called hitting the ceiling and its incredibly impressivve. Not considering 20 million units shifted impressive because it sells to 20% of the user base is crazy.

QFT!!!

If you do not consider 20% attach rate with a userbase of 100 mil a nut busting success, then you just better get out of the industry!

The MOST, like 80% of the games can best hope for on a userbase of 100 million, is around a 1%-5% attach ratio! I'm not kidding here! Most games sell through rate is like that, around 1-5 million in sales, and 5 million is pushing it! Just how many games pushed over 5 million sales worldwide? NOT MANY! Probably 100 or so, out of thousands of games released each year!

The next 15% are the games that can break around 6-10 million units on a 100 million userbase. I mean, you need to get a very very very well known brand name, like Mario, GTA, Halo etc to even CONSIDER that!

Only like 5% or even less game can even consider breaking the 10 milion units barrier, and even less, over the 20 million barrier! So far, only 4 games I know has done the 20 million sold mark, and all of them on consoles with a userbase of 100 million or more (or is getting there, also, non bundled game), NSBM, Mario Kart DS, Mario Kart Wii (getting there), GTA: SA. I maybe missing one or two, but that is IT!!!! You can see how RARE this is! VERY, VERY, VERY few games can even consider get to 10 million, even if the userbase is over 100 million, much less 20 million!

[QUOTE="StryderK"]

[QUOTE="dakan45"]Man....you cant beat 3 sytems and millions of marketing, no way not possible, not even for mario.ActicEdge

Again, it all comes down to if you put a time limit on things.

MW2 gonna have a very very short "Shelf-Life", at most, to this time next year, when the next CoD game comes out. Then MW2 is basically considered dead on the shelf....

NSBM? Not likely! I mean, 5 years from its original DS release, it still sellsan average of around 250K a months! That's NUTS! If NSBM2: Wii get even half of that legs, then 5 years from now, I can forsee NSBM Wii life time sales totally outrange MW3, 3 platforms not withstanding. Because 5 years from now, no one would even mention MW2!

Excuse me but no. COD4 still charts on NPD and Media Create charts every month. Its been selling consistently for the last 2 years. Let's not make up crap. NSMB is a beast but its one of a kind. There is no gaurentee NSMBWii will do the same. Its best bet is its a Nintendo game but there is no evidence it will pull a Mario Kart and not a SMG.

CoD: MW is still on the chart, but 1 year from now, will it sell enough to put it out of reach of the monster known as NSMB? That's the question!

You are right it's no gaurantee that NSBM Wii will do the same, but you also can not gaurantee that It will DO a NSMB DS either! And Judging from past performances, it at least will GET SOME legs from the previous game! You can't just write off and say, "Blah! NSBM will pull off a Galaxy just because its on theWii!" To do so is highly fanboyish!As someone said, 2DMario games are far more popular than the 3D ones!

[QUOTE="Vaasman"][QUOTE="Hexagon_777"]Judging from the DS, that sounds about right. :PHexagon_777

The DS has about double the user base of the Wii, correct, but New Super Mario Bros. has sold significantly more than double of Super Mario Galaxy.

[QUOTE="ActicEdge"]

[QUOTE="StryderK"]

Again, it all comes down to if you put a time limit on things.

MW2 gonna have a very very short "Shelf-Life", at most, to this time next year, when the next CoD game comes out. Then MW2 is basically considered dead on the shelf....

NSBM? Not likely! I mean, 5 years from its original DS release, it still sellsan average of around 250K a months! That's NUTS! If NSBM2: Wii get even half of that legs, then 5 years from now, I can forsee NSBM Wii life time sales totally outrange MW3, 3 platforms not withstanding. Because 5 years from now, no one would even mention MW2!

StryderK

Excuse me but no. COD4 still charts on NPD and Media Create charts every month. Its been selling consistently for the last 2 years. Let's not make up crap. NSMB is a beast but its one of a kind. There is no gaurentee NSMBWii will do the same. Its best bet is its a Nintendo game but there is no evidence it will pull a Mario Kart and not a SMG.

CoD: MW is still on the chart, but 1 year from now, will it sell enough to put it out of reach of the monster known as NSMB? That's the question!

You are right it's no gaurantee that NSBM Wii will do the same, but you also can not gaurantee that It will DO a NSMB DS either! And Judging from past performances, it at least will GET SOME legs from the previous game! You can't just write off and say, "Blah! NSBM will pull off a Galaxy just because its on theWii!" To do so is highly fanboyish!As someone said, 2DMario games are far more popular than the 3D ones!

I never said that. I said the idea that it will sell like the DS version has no base. COD;MW isn't touching NSMB, not a chance but it still sells consistently 2 years later, that was the point. I'm not saying NSMBWii will not sell like crack, I'm saying its foolish to assume it will. 2D mario > 3D mario but its not to the point where 2D mario sells to 40% of the user base. That happened once and it was bundled. Let's not get a head of ourselvs.

[QUOTE="StryderK"]

[QUOTE="ActicEdge"]

Excuse me but no. COD4 still charts on NPD and Media Create charts every month. Its been selling consistently for the last 2 years. Let's not make up crap. NSMB is a beast but its one of a kind. There is no gaurentee NSMBWii will do the same. Its best bet is its a Nintendo game but there is no evidence it will pull a Mario Kart and not a SMG.

ActicEdge

CoD: MW is still on the chart, but 1 year from now, will it sell enough to put it out of reach of the monster known as NSMB? That's the question!

You are right it's no gaurantee that NSBM Wii will do the same, but you also can not gaurantee that It will DO a NSMB DS either! And Judging from past performances, it at least will GET SOME legs from the previous game! You can't just write off and say, "Blah! NSBM will pull off a Galaxy just because its on theWii!" To do so is highly fanboyish!As someone said, 2DMario games are far more popular than the 3D ones!

I never said that. I said the idea that it will sell like the DS version has no base. COD;MW isn't touching NSMB, not a chance but it still sells consistently 2 years later, that was the point. I'm not saying NSMBWii will not sell like crack, I'm saying its foolish to assume it will. 2D mario > 3D mario but its not to the point where 2D mario sells to 40% of the user base. That happened once and it was bundled. Let's not get a head of ourselvs.

Again, why no base?

Check MArio Kart Wii Vs. Mario Kart DS. I still remember back on GAF and here, plenty of people were going Mario Kart Wii WILL NEVER get CLOSE to Mario Kart DS sales......Almost three years later....What? Where are those voices again? Again, not saying NSMB Wii will get ALL of it, but some of it is highly likely! Why did you think Nintendo put NSMB 2 on the Wii rather than DS? There is a whole reason for that!

And also, things don't remain constant. Remember, 5 years ago, DS was at the same threshold as the Wii right now. So, five years from now, Wii will probably be also over 100 million units sold. That sale will drive the sale of NSBM Wii, just like DS sales drove NSMB and Mario Kart DS too. By then, an attach ratio of 20% is HIGHLY likely for the game! And as I've said above, NSMB is one of only like 5 or 6 games out there that has the potential to get an attach ratio of 20%, out of a userbase of 100 million!

Again, you ARE correct in saying there is no gaurantee...But judging all the FACTORS out there, the arrow all points to NSMB selling around 20 million in the next 5 years....That's my point and it's not "just farting wind out of nowhere either!" It's based on the original NSMB, how Mario Kart Wii did etc., and NSMB brand name recognition and projected Wii sales in the next five years. NSMB Wii is FAR more likely to be associated with the Wii in the next five years than SMG or SMG 2. Again, that STILL does not gaurantee it. But it's a good "Base" to work with while MW2 just don't have that much to work with....Again, 1 to 2 years top, then the sales will lower to a "far more likely catchable" amount by sometimes next year, when the next CoD game comes out. (again, my estimate for CoD: MW2 sales five years from now is 16-18 million units sold. That's no laughing matter either. It just NSBM Wii will be slightly higher at 18-20 million).