Next-gen Xbox and PS are probably still a few years away

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campzor

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#51 campzor
Member since 2004 • 34932 Posts
you seem to be under some delusion that sony cant keep selling ps3s whilst the ps4 is out :|
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ArchoNils2

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#52 ArchoNils2
Member since 2005 • 10534 Posts

Well, if they release before 2014, it would be unusual. Usually it takes around 2 years from the announcement until we actually get the device. Just look at the last systems that released. But let's wait and see, I doubt they can do well if they give the Wii successor such a headstart

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l34052

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#53 l34052
Member since 2005 • 3906 Posts

I can realistically see a 2013 release, the fact there is zero info out there is because MS and Sony are both scared of each other and no one wants to blink first and give away the game so the other can get an advantage.

My only fear is that with this strategy it could allow nintendo to get a lead that no matter what the big 2 launch they wont be able to catch up with much like the wii this gen.

Either way im bored of this gen and have been for a couple years and am ready for some new experiences.

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nunovlopes

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#55 nunovlopes
Member since 2009 • 2638 Posts

[QUOTE="nameless12345"]

[QUOTE="kingtito"] The PS2 might still sell but it didn't stop Sony from releasing the next console 6-7 years later did it? I don't see how releasing 7-8 years later is considered "rushing" or "updating hardware frequently". I think the only delusional person here is you. kingtito

I'm only trying to be realistic here. The thoughts expressed don't mirror my own views (I believe a console refresh should be every five years personally).

Releasing in 2013 could also be considered realistic. They've both been working on their next consoles for some time now and with the WiiU launching this year, 2013 is far from out of the question.

Personally I think that releasing a powerful console this year, with a high price point, will be a disastrous move by MS or Sony. Most people are still happy with current gen consoles, they will not flock to buy new consoles, especially with the economic situation as it is. You may be ready but I believe you're a minority. And if the new console is not backwards compatible that will be a major disaster. Now if MS or Sony release a new "weak" console this year, that's barely an improvement over the current one, fully backwards compatible, that they can sell cheap at a profit, then I'm sure that will be ok.

You have to realize this is not Xbox->360 or PS2->PS3 all over again. In 2006 people were ditching their old TVs for new HDTVs so it made sense to buy new HD consoles. I don't think most moms/dads will gladly buy a 720/PS4 now, and without those it will not pay off to MS/Sony.

2013 is not out of the question but I think people expecting any major leap will be sorely disappointed.

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l34052

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#56 l34052
Member since 2005 • 3906 Posts

[QUOTE="kingtito"][QUOTE="nameless12345"]

I'm only trying to be realistic here. The thoughts expressed don't mirror my own views (I believe a console refresh should be every five years personally).

nunovlopes

Releasing in 2013 could also be considered realistic. They've both been working on their next consoles for some time now and with the WiiU launching this year, 2013 is far from out of the question.

.....Now if MS or Sony release a new "weak" console this year, that's barely an improvement over the current one, fully backwards compatible, that they can sell cheap at a profit, then I'm sure that will be ok.

I disagree, unless the new machines are a significant improvement on the current crop no one will buy them, why would they when the experience is barely any different to what they currently have and with the wii u on the horizon even more so.

The new machines have to be powerful and strong if the big 2 want to survive against nintendos machine if they are releasing a year or so later or whats the point when buyers can have a next gen experience this year.

You may not want (or be ready) for a new generation of consoles but alot of gamers are and have been for a while now, me included.

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EMT0

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#58 EMT0
Member since 2012 • 73 Posts

[QUOTE="nunovlopes"]

[QUOTE="kingtito"] Releasing in 2013 could also be considered realistic. They've both been working on their next consoles for some time now and with the WiiU launching this year, 2013 is far from out of the question. l34052

.....Now if MS or Sony release a new "weak" console this year, that's barely an improvement over the current one, fully backwards compatible, that they can sell cheap at a profit, then I'm sure that will be ok.

I disagree, unless the new machines are a significant improvement on the current crop no one will buy them, why would they when the experience is barely any different to what they currently have and with the wii u on the horizon even more so.

The new machines have to be powerful and strong if the big 2 want to survive against nintendos machine if they are releasing a year or so later or whats the point when buyers can have a next gen experience this year.

You may not want (or be ready) for a new generation of consoles but alot of gamers are and have been for a while now, me included.

This is a bit of a broad, general question, but what new experiences are you expecting out of newer consoles? Off the top of my head, I can only think of improved graphics, tbh.

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deactivated-57ad0e5285d73

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#59 deactivated-57ad0e5285d73
Member since 2009 • 21398 Posts

[QUOTE="l34052"]

[QUOTE="nunovlopes"]

.....Now if MS or Sony release a new "weak" console this year, that's barely an improvement over the current one, fully backwards compatible, that they can sell cheap at a profit, then I'm sure that will be ok.

EMT0

I disagree, unless the new machines are a significant improvement on the current crop no one will buy them, why would they when the experience is barely any different to what they currently have and with the wii u on the horizon even more so.

The new machines have to be powerful and strong if the big 2 want to survive against nintendos machine if they are releasing a year or so later or whats the point when buyers can have a next gen experience this year.

You may not want (or be ready) for a new generation of consoles but alot of gamers are and have been for a while now, me included.

This is a bit of a broad, general question, but what new experiences are you expecting out of newer consoles? Off the top of my head, I can only think of improved graphics, tbh.

This is why I think the wiiu will catch on. The response to the wiiu pad is very similar to the N64 introducing the analog stick. Gamers were so hung up on their trusted layout that they were scared of new things to come. Heck, as a precaution, Nintendo even included the old layout one the N64 pad. The wiiu pad is the future of console controls. Sony and MS will follow suit.
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Grey_Eyed_Elf

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#60 Grey_Eyed_Elf
Member since 2011 • 7971 Posts
360 was announced 2005 and released in 2005... if Microsoft announce the console next E3 it will be out Q413-Q14.
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tenaka2

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#61 tenaka2
Member since 2004 • 17958 Posts

The people who think that the next machines from MS and Sony could launch as soon as next year are a little deluded imo. It will probably take atleast two more years before they come out, possibly more. The 360 and PS3 will stick around for a while, still. There is no reason to rush with new hardware and taking a loss on it when old hardware still sells. It makes sense since the install bases of the 360 and PS3 are pretty big and this means better software sales than a new and expensive generation. I don't doubt we'll eventually see them but just not anytime soon.

nameless12345

I agree, plus for the first year or so the next xbox will most likely invalidate your home insurance due to poor electronics being a fire risk.

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Sik_kid_pk

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#62 Sik_kid_pk
Member since 2010 • 549 Posts
For the people saying if they were gonna announce something they would have done it by now, look at the 360. Revealed in '05, launched in '05. I can see Microsoft doing this again next year and Sony waiting till '14.
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RR360DD

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#63 RR360DD
Member since 2011 • 14099 Posts

Not a chance, not with the push from 3rd party devs at the minute and the fact Wii U is launching this year (not next gen, but still).

If what Pachter says is right (yes i know, pachter blah blah blah) then the PS4 will be holiday 2013 and the next Xbox spring 2014. So that gives Sony the rest of the year to announce the new Playstation (maybe TGS) and then E3 next year for the new Xbox.

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nameless12345

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#64 nameless12345
Member since 2010 • 15125 Posts

For the people saying if they were gonna announce something they would have done it by now, look at the 360. Revealed in '05, launched in '05. I can see Microsoft doing this again next year and Sony waiting till '14.Sik_kid_pk

MS rushed the 360 to the market because they wanted to get rid of the first Xbox ASAP because they had a pure loss with it. They even wanted to release the 360 already in 2004. The next Xbox, however, is a different story. The 360 is already seven years old and there's still no successor. They even went as far as to say that Kinect is "the next Xbox". And considering the good 360 and Kinect sales, they're not exactly in a hurry to make a new system either. I think both, MS and Sony are watching each other's moves as well as Nintendo's.

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JohnF111

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#65 JohnF111
Member since 2010 • 14190 Posts
Yeah well as of right now I'm not bothered, with Watch Dogs, Sim City, Carrier Command, Guild Wars 2 and The Last of Us coming out this year or 2013 I think I'll happily enjoy my PC and PS3 all the way up until PS4 and Xbox 2 are announced and released.
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olart4618

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#66 olart4618
Member since 2010 • 478 Posts

Nov 2013 for xbox

nov 2014 PS

who want to bet?

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04dcarraher

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#67 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts

[QUOTE="Sik_kid_pk"]For the people saying if they were gonna announce something they would have done it by now, look at the 360. Revealed in '05, launched in '05. I can see Microsoft doing this again next year and Sony waiting till '14.nameless12345

MS rushed the 360 to the market because they wanted to get rid of the first Xbox ASAP because they had a pure loss with it. They even wanted to release the 360 already in 2004. The next Xbox, however, is a different story. The 360 is already seven years old and there's still no successor. They even went as far as to say that Kinect is "the next Xbox". And considering the good 360 and Kinect sales, they're not exactly in a hurry to make a new system either. I think both, MS and Sony are watching each other's moves as well as Nintendo's.

MS rushed their 360 and skipped quality testing to beat Sony to the punch with the next gen console, because Sony's original PS3 release date was 2005. It wasn't because they wanted to get rid of the 1st xbox because of the losses.... from 2002 to 2003 they almost made enough profit to break even. From 2003 to the release of the 360 MS lost just as much with the development costs of the 360 as with the 1st xbox did from 2000-2002. Then from 2003-2007 it was a pure loss with the development and release and failures of the 360. Its wasnt until mid 2008 when MS actually started to make it into the black(profit).

Also we have had reports from reliable sources as far back as late 2010 MS and AMD working on the next xbox. It's very hard to believe MS is not going to release their next console in 2013 because of the those reports stated above along with all the rumors last year and earlier this year and the fact that 360 sales have dropped 48% from 2011 to 2012. MS can not give Nintendo more then year lead in having the better visuals,more gimmicks and losing support from 3rd party devs because then they have a system that allows more options to create games because of the hardware and memory resources that the 360 or PS3 do not have. What will most likely happen is that MS and Sony will release their next consoles late 2013(MS) 2014(Sony) while continuing support for their other consoles for a time.

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SaltyMeatballs

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#68 SaltyMeatballs
Member since 2009 • 25165 Posts

They don't release it because no one cares; proof that console gaming is dying. 7 years later, no new consoles, only Nintendo which is on par with current gen.

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savagetwinkie

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#69 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts

[QUOTE="PAL360"]

[QUOTE="GamerwillzPS"]

Yeah. People who are hoping to see new consoles next year have lost their mind a bit. No way in hell it's possible for that. If they are going to be released next year, it would have been announced by now.

Xbox 360 is dead already. It has no games, so it would be good to see Microsoft bringing out a new console to freshen things a bit. PS3 will suffice for a few more years.

Two reasons why PS3 will suffice for a few more years:-

  • It's future-proof due to Blu-ray, powerful processor and nice XMB interface that seems never get outdated. The best interface ever.
  • Lots of games! Exclusives just keep coming out.

GamerwillzPS

Lets be realistic here.

According to cows hype, PS3 could last 20 more years and graphics would allways be improving. Avatar visuals would probably the next stop. According to reality, on the other hand, PS3 is as old tech as 360. Probably a bit less capable, considering it has less usable ram and an older GPU.

In fact, both consoles are still pretty alive and games keep coming. The problem is that ppl want consoles to handle games like Planetside 2 or E3 version of Watchdogs and Star Wars 1313. Those visuals will only be seen on PCs and next gen consoles.

Of course not. :lol: (I was responding to the line in yellow)

Well, the PS3 hardware is more advanced than the 360, probably a year ahead. You should know that. The Cell processor and Blu-ray - remember?

I have to say this once again which you will disagree, the PS3 is more capable of rendering resource-heavy games - Look at its exclusives, especially Uncharted, Killzone and more importantly, The Last of Us and Beyond: Two Souls.

Of course, PS3 version will be the jaggier and lower-res version of E3's Watchdogs. It is ran by a PC, obviously. But if it's really optimised for the PS3 and is exclusive to it, the story would be different.

This is actually completely wrong, neither system comes out on top in terms of overal processing power, both system have strengths and weaknessess, and whats most unfortunate, memory managment is one of the weakest parts of ps3.

CELL while capable of processing alot, is not able to function 100% in all cases. In fact I'd say the cell is pretty focused on what it can do, which is why the vast majority of multiplats are either equal or slightly better on the 360. The 360 is just a more flexible system, the hardware lends it self to game code more, its got better memory managment, a better GPU which can process close to the RSX/CELL combo, then it still has the CPU for more CPU oriented tasks like AI.

Not only is it more flexible but its easier to program. Mostly because of the memory managment and CPU is synchronous.

In the end they are very very similar. The blu-ray would have mattered more but in the end the ps3 can only use 512mb at a time, so the games are made with a 512mb memory footprint to begin with. The only pluss is if you want a game with uncompressed sound/textures, but because of the memory limitations your better off with compressed sounds and textures to save more room. Then I guess they can just make like 500 levels and it should be good.

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savagetwinkie

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#70 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts

[QUOTE="nameless12345"]

[QUOTE="Sik_kid_pk"]For the people saying if they were gonna announce something they would have done it by now, look at the 360. Revealed in '05, launched in '05. I can see Microsoft doing this again next year and Sony waiting till '14.04dcarraher

MS rushed the 360 to the market because they wanted to get rid of the first Xbox ASAP because they had a pure loss with it. They even wanted to release the 360 already in 2004. The next Xbox, however, is a different story. The 360 is already seven years old and there's still no successor. They even went as far as to say that Kinect is "the next Xbox". And considering the good 360 and Kinect sales, they're not exactly in a hurry to make a new system either. I think both, MS and Sony are watching each other's moves as well as Nintendo's.

MS rushed their 360 and skipped quality testing to beat Sony to the punch with the next gen console, because Sony's original PS3 release date was 2005. It wasn't because they wanted to get rid of the 1st xbox because of the losses.... from 2002 to 2003 they almost made enough profit to break even. From 2003 to the release of the 360 MS lost just as much with the development costs of the 360 as with the 1st xbox did from 2000-2002. Then from 2003-2007 it was a pure loss with the development and release and failures of the 360. Its wasnt until mid 2008 when MS actually started to make it into the black(profit).

Also we have had reports from reliable sources as far back as late 2010 MS and AMD working on the next xbox. It's very hard to believe MS is not going to release their next console in 2013 because of the those reports stated above along with all the rumors last year and earlier this year and the fact that 360 sales have dropped 48% from 2011 to 2012. MS can not give Nintendo more then year lead in having the better visuals,more gimmicks and losing support from 3rd party devs because then they have a system that allows more options to create games because of the hardware and memory resources that the 360 or PS3 do not have. What will most likely happen is that MS and Sony will release their next consoles late 2013(MS) 2014(Sony) while continuing support for their other consoles for a time.

it wasn't rushed like people think it was, the type of metals used in the GPU was standard at the time, a lot of chip vendors ended up with a lot of bad chips (nvidia/ati) due to heat around the same time. But M$ was locked in until they could literally re-engineer it to same specs with different metals that could handle heat expansion better. You could have put anti-freeze on the old consoles and they'd still be likely to fail at some point.
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Bigboi500

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#71 Bigboi500
Member since 2007 • 35550 Posts

Nov 2013 for xbox

nov 2014 PS

who want to bet?

olart4618

You could be on to something. But if the 360 and Kinect continue to sell well, Microsoft would probably postpone it until sales dip down a bit.

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TopTierHustler

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#72 TopTierHustler
Member since 2012 • 3894 Posts

I don't think sony can keep it's head above water for a few years...

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AdamPA1006

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#73 AdamPA1006
Member since 2004 • 6422 Posts

I can see the next Xbox coming out next year, but not the PS4. I gotta say I am still happy with my PS3 and there is still games I am looking forward too. (Ni No Kuni!) Sony is sadly in a lot of financial trouble. I'm just not so sure on Sony being able to put out the PS4. I hope I'm wrong.

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04dcarraher

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#74 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts
[QUOTE="04dcarraher"]

[QUOTE="nameless12345"]

[QUOTE="Sik_kid_pk"].

savagetwinkie

it wasn't rushed like people think it was, the type of metals used in the GPU was standard at the time, a lot of chip vendors ended up with a lot of bad chips (nvidia/ati) due to heat around the same time. But M$ was locked in until they could literally re-engineer it to same specs with different metals that could handle heat expansion better. You could have put anti-freeze on the old consoles and they'd still be likely to fail at some point.

Thats not the whole thing, they did skip long term testing and did rush the 360 to the market, failure rates was not solely because lead free solder, and this did not affect Nvidia or ATI as much as MS because they failed to do long term quality assurance testing to see the inferior cooling design. Sony postponed the PS3's 2005 launch date to fix heating issues, while MS ignored.
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ronvalencia

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#75 ronvalencia
Member since 2008 • 29612 Posts

[QUOTE="savagetwinkie"][QUOTE="04dcarraher"]

04dcarraher

it wasn't rushed like people think it was, the type of metals used in the GPU was standard at the time, a lot of chip vendors ended up with a lot of bad chips (nvidia/ati) due to heat around the same time. But M$ was locked in until they could literally re-engineer it to same specs with different metals that could handle heat expansion better. You could have put anti-freeze on the old consoles and they'd still be likely to fail at some point.

Thats not the whole thing, they did skip long term testing and did rush the 360 to the market, failure rates was not solely because lead free solder, and this did not affect Nvidia or ATI as much as MS because they failed to do long term quality assurance testing to see the inferior cooling design. Sony postponed the PS3's 2005 launch date to fix heating issues, while MS ignored.

NVIDIA has it's own problems with G8X's "bumpgate".

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04dcarraher

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#76 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"][QUOTE="savagetwinkie"] it wasn't rushed like people think it was, the type of metals used in the GPU was standard at the time, a lot of chip vendors ended up with a lot of bad chips (nvidia/ati) due to heat around the same time. But M$ was locked in until they could literally re-engineer it to same specs with different metals that could handle heat expansion better. You could have put anti-freeze on the old consoles and they'd still be likely to fail at some point.ronvalencia

Thats not the whole thing, they did skip long term testing and did rush the 360 to the market, failure rates was not solely because lead free solder, and this did not affect Nvidia or ATI as much as MS because they failed to do long term quality assurance testing to see the inferior cooling design. Sony postponed the PS3's 2005 launch date to fix heating issues, while MS ignored.

NVIDIA has it's own problems with G8X's "bumpgate".

Pointless, because of the fact that 360's inferior cooling was the major problem with the failure rates, also the fact that we are not dealing with laptop based chipsets that had power issues with electrical current
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savagetwinkie

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#77 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts

[QUOTE="ronvalencia"]

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"] Thats not the whole thing, they did skip long term testing and did rush the 360 to the market, failure rates was not solely because lead free solder, and this did not affect Nvidia or ATI as much as MS because they failed to do long term quality assurance testing to see the inferior cooling design. Sony postponed the PS3's 2005 launch date to fix heating issues, while MS ignored. 04dcarraher

NVIDIA has it's own problems with G8X's "bumpgate".

Pointless, because of the fact that 360's inferior cooling was the major problem with the failure rates, also the fact that we are not dealing with laptop based chipsets that had power issues with electrical current

But it wasn't, a better cooling solution would have just delayed the inevitable.

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savagetwinkie

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#78 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts

[QUOTE="savagetwinkie"][QUOTE="04dcarraher"]

04dcarraher

it wasn't rushed like people think it was, the type of metals used in the GPU was standard at the time, a lot of chip vendors ended up with a lot of bad chips (nvidia/ati) due to heat around the same time. But M$ was locked in until they could literally re-engineer it to same specs with different metals that could handle heat expansion better. You could have put anti-freeze on the old consoles and they'd still be likely to fail at some point.

Thats not the whole thing, they did skip long term testing and did rush the 360 to the market, failure rates was not solely because lead free solder, and this did not affect Nvidia or ATI as much as MS because they failed to do long term quality assurance testing to see the inferior cooling design. Sony postponed the PS3's 2005 launch date to fix heating issues, while MS ignored.

Long term testing isn't something that you'd normally need to do with consumer electronics, in fact it would be stupid to do because electronics normally are pretty predictable. They woudl have gotten a spec sheet from the manufacturer(ati in this case) and just predict how long it should last. We just happened to be passing a certain heat thresh hold at the time it was engineered.

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04dcarraher

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#79 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"][QUOTE="ronvalencia"] NVIDIA has it's own problems with G8X's "bumpgate".

savagetwinkie

Pointless, because of the fact that 360's inferior cooling was the major problem with the failure rates, also the fact that we are not dealing with laptop based chipsets that had power issues with electrical current

But it wasn't, a better cooling solution would have just delayed the inevitable.

No, when you have scorched marks on the DVD drive right above the gpu heatsink , that shows what the main problem was.
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04dcarraher

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#80 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"][QUOTE="savagetwinkie"] it wasn't rushed like people think it was, the type of metals used in the GPU was standard at the time, a lot of chip vendors ended up with a lot of bad chips (nvidia/ati) due to heat around the same time. But M$ was locked in until they could literally re-engineer it to same specs with different metals that could handle heat expansion better. You could have put anti-freeze on the old consoles and they'd still be likely to fail at some point.savagetwinkie

Thats not the whole thing, they did skip long term testing and did rush the 360 to the market, failure rates was not solely because lead free solder, and this did not affect Nvidia or ATI as much as MS because they failed to do long term quality assurance testing to see the inferior cooling design. Sony postponed the PS3's 2005 launch date to fix heating issues, while MS ignored.

Long term testing isn't something that you'd normally need to do with consumer electronics, in fact it would be stupid to do because electronics normally are pretty predictable. They woudl have gotten a spec sheet from the manufacturer(ati in this case) and just predict how long it should last. We just happened to be passing a certain heat thresh hold at the time it was engineered.

For quality assurance, you test samples for a period of time and with items that produce heat , normally they test beyond what a product will go through to simulate long term use. The fact of the matter is they skipped months of quality checks to get out the door first. First, MS had under resourced the 360 in all engineering areas since the very beginning. Especially in engineering support functions like test, quality, manufacturing, and supplier management. There just weren't enough people to do the job that needed to be done. The leadership in many of those areas was also lopsided in essential skills and experience. Second, MS was so focused on beating Sony that cycle that the 360 was rushed to market when all indications were that it had serious flaws. The design quality testing was insufficient and incomplete when the product was released to production.

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savagetwinkie

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#81 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts

[QUOTE="savagetwinkie"]

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"] Pointless, because of the fact that 360's inferior cooling was the major problem with the failure rates, also the fact that we are not dealing with laptop based chipsets that had power issues with electrical current 04dcarraher

But it wasn't, a better cooling solution would have just delayed the inevitable.

No, when you have scorched marks on the DVD drive right above the gpu heatsink , that shows what the main problem was.

even still, the solder joints were still incorrect for the heat that was produced by the chip, even with a better cooling solution, they still would have eventually failed.
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savagetwinkie

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#82 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts

[QUOTE="savagetwinkie"]

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"] Thats not the whole thing, they did skip long term testing and did rush the 360 to the market, failure rates was not solely because lead free solder, and this did not affect Nvidia or ATI as much as MS because they failed to do long term quality assurance testing to see the inferior cooling design. Sony postponed the PS3's 2005 launch date to fix heating issues, while MS ignored. 04dcarraher

Long term testing isn't something that you'd normally need to do with consumer electronics, in fact it would be stupid to do because electronics normally are pretty predictable. They woudl have gotten a spec sheet from the manufacturer(ati in this case) and just predict how long it should last. We just happened to be passing a certain heat thresh hold at the time it was engineered.

For quality assurance, you test samples for a period of time and with items that produce heat , normally they test beyond what a product will go through to simulate long term use. The fact of the matter is they skipped months of quality checks to get out the door first. First, MS had under resourced the 360 in all engineering areas since the very beginning. Especially in engineering support functions like test, quality, manufacturing, and supplier management. There just weren't enough people to do the job that needed to be done. The leadership in many of those areas was also lopsided in essential skills and experience. Second, MS was so focused on beating Sony that cycle that the 360 was rushed to market when all indications were that it had serious flaws. The design quality testing was insufficient and incomplete when the product was released to production.

This is just wrong, they didn't skip quality testing. Consumer level products like this don't go through long term testing, its theoretical based on short term tests. Why? Because these types of products cycle/upgrade/production is just too fast, most electronics especially processors might only be manufactured for a couple of years then that's it, the next best thing is out and the world moves on. It seems like they were rushing because they were stuck with a standard that didn't work any more. The fact is everyone in the electronics business rushes things out the door for the next best processor or something. Markets where you don't see this is like a car manufacturers where the design/productions take longer cycles so chips need to be supported for a long time. The embedded processors in cars end up having much better long term support and would go through long term testing.
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04dcarraher

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#83 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts
[QUOTE="04dcarraher"]

[QUOTE="savagetwinkie"]

Long term testing isn't something that you'd normally need to do with consumer electronics, in fact it would be stupid to do because electronics normally are pretty predictable. They woudl have gotten a spec sheet from the manufacturer(ati in this case) and just predict how long it should last. We just happened to be passing a certain heat thresh hold at the time it was engineered.

savagetwinkie

For quality assurance, you test samples for a period of time and with items that produce heat , normally they test beyond what a product will go through to simulate long term use. The fact of the matter is they skipped months of quality checks to get out the door first. First, MS had under resourced the 360 in all engineering areas since the very beginning. Especially in engineering support functions like test, quality, manufacturing, and supplier management. There just weren't enough people to do the job that needed to be done. The leadership in many of those areas was also lopsided in essential skills and experience. Second, MS was so focused on beating Sony that cycle that the 360 was rushed to market when all indications were that it had serious flaws. The design quality testing was insufficient and incomplete when the product was released to production.

This is just wrong, they didn't skip quality testing. Consumer level products like this don't go through long term testing, its theoretical based on short term tests. Why? Because these types of products cycle/upgrade/production is just too fast, most electronics especially processors might only be manufactured for a couple of years then that's it, the next best thing is out and the world moves on. It seems like they were rushing because they were stuck with a standard that didn't work any more. The fact is everyone in the electronics business rushes things out the door for the next best processor or something. Markets where you don't see this is like a car manufacturers where the design/productions take longer cycles so chips need to be supported for a long time. The embedded processors in cars end up having much better long term support and would go through long term testing.

Please.... get your facts straight...... they did too rush the 360
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#85 ronvalencia
Member since 2008 • 29612 Posts

[QUOTE="ronvalencia"]

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"] Thats not the whole thing, they did skip long term testing and did rush the 360 to the market, failure rates was not solely because lead free solder, and this did not affect Nvidia or ATI as much as MS because they failed to do long term quality assurance testing to see the inferior cooling design. Sony postponed the PS3's 2005 launch date to fix heating issues, while MS ignored. 04dcarraher

NVIDIA has it's own problems with G8X's "bumpgate".

Pointless, because of the fact that 360's inferior cooling was the major problem with the failure rates, also the fact that we are not dealing with laptop based chipsets that had power issues with electrical current

NVIDIA's bumpgate issues wasn't with the electrical current i.e. it was thermal expansion with the integrated circuit die.

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04dcarraher

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#86 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"][QUOTE="ronvalencia"] NVIDIA has it's own problems with G8X's "bumpgate".ronvalencia
Pointless, because of the fact that 360's inferior cooling was the major problem with the failure rates, also the fact that we are not dealing with laptop based chipsets that had power issues with electrical current

NVIDIA's bumpgate issue wasn't with the electrical current i.e. it was thermal expansion with the integrated circuit die.

It was an electrical current issue which caused the thermal issues in the die.

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ronvalencia

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#87 ronvalencia
Member since 2008 • 29612 Posts

[QUOTE="ronvalencia"][QUOTE="04dcarraher"] Pointless, because of the fact that 360's inferior cooling was the major problem with the failure rates, also the fact that we are not dealing with laptop based chipsets that had power issues with electrical current 04dcarraher

NVIDIA's bumpgate issue wasn't with the electrical current i.e. it was thermal expansion with the integrated circuit die.

It was an electrical current issue which caused the thermal issues in the die.

Due to multiple thermal expansions, Laptop's power-up/power-down usage causes die material to weaken.

Semiaccurate talks about thermals.

Guess_the_chip_thermal_pic.jpg

From http://semiaccurate.com/2010/07/11/why-nvidias-chips-are-defective/

Getting back to the stress, it is what makes bumps fracture. Think of the old trick of taking a fork and bending it back and forth. It bends several times, then it breaks. The same thing happens to bumps. Heating leads to stress, aka bending, and then it cools and bends back. Eventually this thermal cycling kills chips

My 18 month old ASUS G1S's Geforce 8600M GT failed during a quick power-down(sleep)/power-up.

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mitu123

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#88 mitu123
Member since 2006 • 155290 Posts

Lets see:

PS2 came out 5 years after PS1.

PS3 came out 6 years after PS2.

PS4 to come out 7-8 years after PS3?

I'll give Microsoft no later than 2014.

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mitu123

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#89 mitu123
Member since 2006 • 155290 Posts
you seem to be under some delusion that sony cant keep selling ps3s whilst the ps4 is out :|campzor
Ha ha, so true, PS2 still sold a lot even while PS3 was out.
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04dcarraher

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#90 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"]

[QUOTE="ronvalencia"] NVIDIA's bumpgate issue wasn't with the electrical current i.e. it was thermal expansion with the integrated circuit die.ronvalencia

It was an electrical current issue which caused the thermal issues in the die.

Due to multiple thermal expansions, Laptop's power-up/power-down usage causes die material to weaken.

Semiaccurate talks about thermals.

From http://semiaccurate.com/2010/07/11/why-nvidias-chips-are-defective/

Getting back to the stress, it is what makes bumps fracture. Think of the old trick of taking a fork and bending it back and forth. It bends several times, then it breaks. The same thing happens to bumps. Heating leads to stress, aka bending, and then it cools and bends back. Eventually this thermal cycling kills chips

My 18 month old ASUS G1S's Geforce 8600M GT failed during a quick power-down(sleep)/power-up.

Good grief read the report , "Related to this fact that the chip uses electricity in a non uniform manner" which means that sections of the chip will pull more current then on idle parts causing the non uniform heat dispersion causing the fractures... In short It was an electrical current issue or aka design flaw with how the chip regulated electricity. I break it down the simple fact what happen and you post all this garbble and basically comes back to what I stated being what was the main point why. You ether dont understand what you post or you have issues breaking things down and getting to the root.

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savagetwinkie

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#91 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts

[QUOTE="ronvalencia"]

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"] It was an electrical current issue which caused the thermal issues in the die.

04dcarraher

Due to multiple thermal expansions, Laptop's power-up/power-down usage causes die material to weaken.

Semiaccurate talks about thermals.

From http://semiaccurate.com/2010/07/11/why-nvidias-chips-are-defective/

Getting back to the stress, it is what makes bumps fracture. Think of the old trick of taking a fork and bending it back and forth. It bends several times, then it breaks. The same thing happens to bumps. Heating leads to stress, aka bending, and then it cools and bends back. Eventually this thermal cycling kills chips

My 18 month old ASUS G1S's Geforce 8600M GT failed during a quick power-down(sleep)/power-up.

Good grief read the report , "Related to this fact that the chip uses electricity in a non uniform manner" which means that sections of the chip will pull more current then on idle parts causing the non uniform heat dispersion causing the fractures... In short It was an electrical current issue or aka design flaw with how the chip regulated electricity. I break it down the simple fact what happen and you post all this garbble and basically comes back to what I stated being what was the main point why. You ether dont understand what you post or you have issues breaking things down and getting to the root.

chips don't use current in a uniform manner, thats just how gates work. If you've ever taken a solid state physics class, during a switch there is a moment it becomes a short, thats what causes heat in the first place. In a perfect world, these wouldn't generate heat and wouldn't need any current.

if you have a module on a chip turned on, it will generate more heat, or a set of processors like stream processors while others are idle, you will generate more heat on thsoe areas, thats just how physics work and electrons work.

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#92 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts
[QUOTE="savagetwinkie"][QUOTE="04dcarraher"] For quality assurance, you test samples for a period of time and with items that produce heat , normally they test beyond what a product will go through to simulate long term use. The fact of the matter is they skipped months of quality checks to get out the door first. First, MS had under resourced the 360 in all engineering areas since the very beginning. Especially in engineering support functions like test, quality, manufacturing, and supplier management. There just weren't enough people to do the job that needed to be done. The leadership in many of those areas was also lopsided in essential skills and experience. Second, MS was so focused on beating Sony that cycle that the 360 was rushed to market when all indications were that it had serious flaws. The design quality testing was insufficient and incomplete when the product was released to production.04dcarraher
This is just wrong, they didn't skip quality testing. Consumer level products like this don't go through long term testing, its theoretical based on short term tests. Why? Because these types of products cycle/upgrade/production is just too fast, most electronics especially processors might only be manufactured for a couple of years then that's it, the next best thing is out and the world moves on. It seems like they were rushing because they were stuck with a standard that didn't work any more. The fact is everyone in the electronics business rushes things out the door for the next best processor or something. Markets where you don't see this is like a car manufacturers where the design/productions take longer cycles so chips need to be supported for a long time. The embedded processors in cars end up having much better long term support and would go through long term testing.

Please.... get your facts straight...... they did too rush the 360

you don't know what your talking about, the electronics industry doesn't work the way you think it does.
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#93 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts
[QUOTE="04dcarraher"]

[QUOTE="ronvalencia"]

Due to multiple thermal expansions, Laptop's power-up/power-down usage causes die material to weaken.

Semiaccurate talks about thermals.

From http://semiaccurate.com/2010/07/11/why-nvidias-chips-are-defective/

Getting back to the stress, it is what makes bumps fracture. Think of the old trick of taking a fork and bending it back and forth. It bends several times, then it breaks. The same thing happens to bumps. Heating leads to stress, aka bending, and then it cools and bends back. Eventually this thermal cycling kills chips

My 18 month old ASUS G1S's Geforce 8600M GT failed during a quick power-down(sleep)/power-up.

savagetwinkie

Good grief read the report , "Related to this fact that the chip uses electricity in a non uniform manner" which means that sections of the chip will pull more current then on idle parts causing the non uniform heat dispersion causing the fractures... In short It was an electrical current issue or aka design flaw with how the chip regulated electricity. I break it down the simple fact what happen and you post all this garbble and basically comes back to what I stated being what was the main point why. You ether dont understand what you post or you have issues breaking things down and getting to the root.

chips don't use current in a uniform manner, thats just how gates work. If you've ever taken a solid state physics class, during a switch there is a moment it becomes a short, thats what causes heat in the first place. In a perfect world, these wouldn't generate heat and wouldn't need any current.

They have to place the bumps correctly and evenly across the die or run into the problem of not being able to transfer the current and heat efficiency.
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#94 04dcarraher
Member since 2004 • 23858 Posts

[QUOTE="04dcarraher"][QUOTE="savagetwinkie"] This is just wrong, they didn't skip quality testing. Consumer level products like this don't go through long term testing, its theoretical based on short term tests. Why? Because these types of products cycle/upgrade/production is just too fast, most electronics especially processors might only be manufactured for a couple of years then that's it, the next best thing is out and the world moves on. It seems like they were rushing because they were stuck with a standard that didn't work any more. The fact is everyone in the electronics business rushes things out the door for the next best processor or something. Markets where you don't see this is like a car manufacturers where the design/productions take longer cycles so chips need to be supported for a long time. The embedded processors in cars end up having much better long term support and would go through long term testing.savagetwinkie
Please.... get your facts straight...... they did too rush the 360

you don't know what your talking about, the electronics industry doesn't work the way you think it does.

Yet

"This weekend the folks at 8Bit Joystick scored an interview with an anonymous Microsoft insider who sheds more light on the problem. According to the insider, the failure rate for Xbox 360s is around 30%, and Microsoft is expecting a whopping one million failures this quarter alone. Some consoles, he adds, can fail in a matter of hours.

Regarding the underlying cause for the high failure rate, the insider claims Microsoft skimped on the console's design in order to beat Sony to the punch:

First, MS has under resourced that product unit in all engineering areas since the very beginning. Especially in engineering support functions like test, quality, manufacturing, and supplier management. There just weren't enough people to do the job that needed to be done. The leadership in many of those areas was also lopsided in essential skills and experience. But I hear they are really trying to staff up now based on what has happened, and how cheap staff is compared to a couple of billion in cost of quality.

Second, MS was so focused on beating Sony this cycle that the 360 was rushed to market when all indications were that it had serious flaws. The design qual testing was insufficient and incomplete when the product was released to production. The manufacturing test equipment had major gaps in test coverage and wasn't reliable or repeatable. Manufacturing processes at eall levels of suppliers were immature and not in control. Initial end to end yields were in the mid 30%. Low yields always indicate serious design and manufacturing defects. Management chose to continue to ship anyways, and keep the lines running while trying to solve problems and bring the yields up."

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#95 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts

[QUOTE="savagetwinkie"][QUOTE="04dcarraher"] you don't know what your talking about, the electronics industry doesn't work the way you think it does.04dcarraher

Yet

"This weekend the folks at 8Bit Joystick scored an interview with an anonymous Microsoft insider who sheds more light on the problem. According to the insider, the failure rate for Xbox 360s is around 30%, and Microsoft is expecting a whopping one million failures this quarter alone. Some consoles, he adds, can fail in a matter of hours.

Regarding the underlying cause for the high failure rate, the insider claims Microsoft skimped on the console's design in order to beat Sony to the punch:

First, MS has under resourced that product unit in all engineering areas since the very beginning. Especially in engineering support functions like test, quality, manufacturing, and supplier management. There just weren't enough people to do the job that needed to be done. The leadership in many of those areas was also lopsided in essential skills and experience. But I hear they are really trying to staff up now based on what has happened, and how cheap staff is compared to a couple of billion in cost of quality.

Second, MS was so focused on beating Sony this cycle that the 360 was rushed to market when all indications were that it had serious flaws. The design qual testing was insufficient and incomplete when the product was released to production. The manufacturing test equipment had major gaps in test coverage and wasn't reliable or repeatable. Manufacturing processes at eall levels of suppliers were immature and not in control. Initial end to end yields were in the mid 30%. Low yields always indicate serious design and manufacturing defects. Management chose to continue to ship anyways, and keep the lines running while trying to solve problems and bring the yields up."

And who's the source, it could have been an intern for all we know? There is no real proof that this was a rushed product, its just hear say. I can tell you from experience these types of electronics don't undergo long term quality testing. Not to mention M$ isn't a hardware compnay so they were likely relying on help from ati/flextronics to do the quality testing. The point is long term testing doesn't exist with products that are only going to be supported for 5 - 10 years. There is just no point when it might take you another couple of years to redesign it and by then your obsolete anyway. Also when you take into account other developers are waiting on the console to get a paycheck, waiting a year to release could really really hurt a lot of people. http://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/electronics-legislation/2007/11/leadfree-problems-for-the-xbox.html

many manufacturers expressed concerns over long term reliability.

<- the fact is a lot of people weren't sure about it and we went lead free any way.
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#96 savagetwinkie
Member since 2008 • 7981 Posts
[QUOTE="savagetwinkie"][QUOTE="04dcarraher"] Good grief read the report , "Related to this fact that the chip uses electricity in a non uniform manner" which means that sections of the chip will pull more current then on idle parts causing the non uniform heat dispersion causing the fractures... In short It was an electrical current issue or aka design flaw with how the chip regulated electricity. I break it down the simple fact what happen and you post all this garbble and basically comes back to what I stated being what was the main point why. You ether dont understand what you post or you have issues breaking things down and getting to the root. 04dcarraher
chips don't use current in a uniform manner, thats just how gates work. If you've ever taken a solid state physics class, during a switch there is a moment it becomes a short, thats what causes heat in the first place. In a perfect world, these wouldn't generate heat and wouldn't need any current.

They have to place the bumps correctly and evenly across the die or run into the problem of not being able to transfer the current and heat efficiency.

ok so these bumps are the soder points and by running them they are warping... how is that different from XBOX?
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#97 ChubbyGuy40
Member since 2007 • 26442 Posts

Lets see:

PS2 came out 5 years after PS1.

PS3 came out 6 years after PS2.

PS4 to come out 7-8 years after PS3?

I'll give Microsoft no later than 2014.

mitu123

IMO, anything coming out in 2014 is pure suicide. They need to release in 2013. Why give Nintendo a 2 year lead? No one will want to jump onto a new platform so late.

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#98 PatchMaster
Member since 2003 • 6013 Posts

With all the rumors of studios working on next gen games, 2013 makes sense. It is a little strange that so many current gen games are coming in 2013 though. Usually there's somewhat of a drought before new consoles launch. This time it looks like current gen AAA games might continue releasing right up until and possibly even after the new consoles launch.