@SecretPolice: No matter how hard you try to spin it and convince yourself otherwise, the Switch is and will always be a hybrid console/handheld. It's competing in both markets. Now here's that nice little goalpost gif right back at ya NotSoSecretHypocrite.
lol, I never need to move goalposts, I'm always on target baby!! When Switch has at least one competitor in that market then you can start comparing numbers. Until then, just be happy with your new toy. :)
Odyssey is a monster! It's gonna be a system seller for a long time. It'll easily be the best selling 3D Mario. Maybe it'll hit something like 15 million in the end?
And Switch outselling Wii U by 1.3 million in under 10 months... that's something. Switch is tracking a bit behind PS4 right now, so if things keep going well it could end up being the third best selling home console of all time behind PS4 and PS2.
Also @Pedro I told you so.
Always the optimistic one. Not going to happen. I'll give you it definitely has a shot surpassing my sales prediction, but come on now.
Have you ever considered that you're just an extreme pessimist? I'm not even saying that it will do that well, but it certainly could. As I've told you a million times, your predictions are bad because they depend on it peaking in year one. I can tell you right now there's almost no chance of that.
Looks like the Switch outsold the Wii-U. Nintendo did a great job with the Switch seeing that the console is only 11 months old and managed to outsell the Wii-U which was released more then five years ago.
Looks like the Switch outsold the Wii-U. Nintendo did a great job with the Switch seeing that the console is only 11 months old and managed to outsell the Wii-U which was released more then five years ago.
Actually it was under 10 months. These figures only count up to December 31st.
Have you ever considered that you're just an extreme pessimist? I'm not even saying that it will do that well, but it certainly could. As I've told you a million times, your predictions are bad because they depend on it peaking in year one. I can tell you right now there's almost no chance of that.
Let's say my prediction is wrong and Switch sells 60 million, that is still closer to my prediction than saying 3rd best selling console.
Have you ever considered that you're just an extreme pessimist? I'm not even saying that it will do that well, but it certainly could. As I've told you a million times, your predictions are bad because they depend on it peaking in year one. I can tell you right now there's almost no chance of that.
Let's say my prediction is wrong and Switch sells 60 million, that is still closer to my prediction than saying 3rd best selling console.
It's more likely, IMO, to top out at at least 100 million than bottom out at 60. The fundamentals are just too strong.
Have you ever considered that you're just an extreme pessimist? I'm not even saying that it will do that well, but it certainly could. As I've told you a million times, your predictions are bad because they depend on it peaking in year one. I can tell you right now there's almost no chance of that.
Let's say my prediction is wrong and Switch sells 60 million, that is still closer to my prediction than saying 3rd best selling console.
60 million is more realistic than any of your predictions, but it's still on the low-end of what's possible imo. I'd say 65 million and 7th best is where I'd put a super conservative estimate, but it's almost certainly going to be halfway there by the end of this year so even that requires a pretty big drop-off. A mildly conservative estimate would be ~80 million, which is still 7th place. 100+ million would be difficult, but it's possible if Nintendo supports it properly (more in-line with how Sony supports their consoles). Around 110 million is the absolute max (PS4 will land around 130 million I believe). 45 million isn't even worth entertaining as a possibility and 35 million will be passed by spring next year. If momentum does start to falter, Nintendo will do something about it for sure. There's a lot riding on Switch's success for them, and no matter how much you insist it N64-level sales won't be considered a success to them.
The funny thing is that my initial estimates were below yours. I changed them due to how it's doing in the market. In hindsight I definitely can see why you think this way, and maybe it's not all bias. However, I think that my thoughts have more meat around them. The 65-90 million range feels right.
Let's say my prediction is wrong and Switch sells 60 million, that is still closer to my prediction than saying 3rd best selling console.
60 million is more realistic than any of your predictions, but it's still on the low-end of what's possible imo. I'd say 65 million and 7th best is where I'd put a super conservative estimate, but it's almost certainly going to be halfway there by the end of this year so even that requires a pretty big drop-off. A mildly conservative estimate would be ~80 million, which is still 7th place. 100+ million would be difficult, but it's possible if Nintendo supports it properly (more in-line with how Sony supports their consoles). Around 110 million is the absolute max (PS4 will land around 130 million I believe). 45 million isn't even worth entertaining as a possibility and 35 million will be passed by spring next year. If momentum does start to falter, Nintendo will do something about it for sure. There's a lot riding on Switch's success for them, and no matter how much you insist it N64-level sales won't be considered a success to them.
The funny thing is that my initial estimates were below yours. I changed them due to how it's doing in the market. In hindsight I definitely can see why you think this way, and maybe it's not all bias. However, I think that my thoughts have more meat around them. The 65-90 million range feels right.
You consider 65 million super conservative when the 3DS has sold that much? The Switch isn't going to be a Wii like success, get over it already.
Per generation Nintendo's handhelds have always sold better than their consoles. Switch might have a handheld mode, but it isn't a true handheld replacement yet, not until a slimmed down version with better battery life and cheaper price appears.
Let's say my prediction is wrong and Switch sells 60 million, that is still closer to my prediction than saying 3rd best selling console.
60 million is more realistic than any of your predictions, but it's still on the low-end of what's possible imo. I'd say 65 million and 7th best is where I'd put a super conservative estimate, but it's almost certainly going to be halfway there by the end of this year so even that requires a pretty big drop-off. A mildly conservative estimate would be ~80 million, which is still 7th place. 100+ million would be difficult, but it's possible if Nintendo supports it properly (more in-line with how Sony supports their consoles). Around 110 million is the absolute max (PS4 will land around 130 million I believe). 45 million isn't even worth entertaining as a possibility and 35 million will be passed by spring next year. If momentum does start to falter, Nintendo will do something about it for sure. There's a lot riding on Switch's success for them, and no matter how much you insist it N64-level sales won't be considered a success to them.
The funny thing is that my initial estimates were below yours. I changed them due to how it's doing in the market. In hindsight I definitely can see why you think this way, and maybe it's not all bias. However, I think that my thoughts have more meat around them. The 65-90 million range feels right.
You consider 65 million super conservative when the 3DS has sold that much? The Switch isn't going to be a Wii like success, get over it already.
Per generation Nintendo's handhelds have always sold better than their consoles. Switch might have a handheld mode, but it isn't a true handheld replacement yet, not until a slimmed down version with better battery life and cheaper price appears.
My judgements are based on how it's performing and what I expect Nintendo to do in the future. Yours are based entirely on past systems and the assumption that Nintendo basically feels that anything better than Wii U is okay. Also, Wii's success is overstated. It dropped off massively after its third year. I don't expect Switch to match Wii's highs, but I think if Nintendo plays their cards right this time the difference can be made up partially later on. That said, I just said that around Wii is difficult; it's the high end of predictions. I think around PS3/360 level is more likely. And again, I understand where you're trying to come from, but I can't just ignore the fact that Switch has had a better first year than any Nintendo system except GBA and Wii so far. Your reasoning is sound, but the flaw is that it's just your opinion. People said that the Galaxy Note wouldn't be a success because it's too big to be a phone; now look at where the smartphone industry is. Expect the unexpected.
I'm firm in completely ruling out 45 million, though. Something unprecedented and catastrophic would have to happen to Switch momentum for that to be. Assume Switch lasts until 2022, that would mean an average of about 6 million sales per year going forward after getting nearly 15 million in the first 10 months; nothing like that has ever happened in the history of our industry. You're accusing me of betting against history, but you're doing the same on a bigger level.
Out of curiosity, are you sticking to your opinion that 2017 was just Wii U owners rushing to upgrade and that it's already slowing down to much lower levels? Also, do you think Switch will meet the projections given by Nintendo in the OP, or will it fall flat this quarter?
Also, how do you feel about my 120-130 million prediction for PS4?
Looks like the Switch outsold the Wii-U. Nintendo did a great job with the Switch seeing that the console is only 11 months old and managed to outsell the Wii-U which was released more then five years ago.
Actually it was under 10 months. These figures only count up to December 31st.
My mistake then. Ether way the Nintendo Switch is still doing better then the Wii-U which is very good.
@techhog89: How about we wait until Switch exceeds my initial predicition before talking about 3rd best selling console.
Nah. I can predict what I want. It destroying your prediction is a 100% certainty unless something happens that prevents Nintendo from making more. Everyone but you sees that, either due to being in denial or being stubborn. But fine, I'll retract that since you're too full of yourself to even entertain the possibility. How about if I shift 65 million to be my realistic prediction and 55 million to be safe/conservative? Does that sound sane to you, or do you strongly feel that 45 million is the hard ceiling without a pure handheld version? I just can't see it selling less than NES, but it sounds like you got some stuff right in the past so you have a lot of confidence in your understanding of the gaming market.
@stereointegrity: Mario appeals to a wider audience and has always sold better than Zelda. But yes, BotW is one of the best games ever created and way better than Odyssey. A higher percentage of Switch owners should buy the game.
I think Aonuma once said BotW needed to sell 4 million to be successful and cover the production costs, so 6.7 million for the Switch version alone is really good though. And let’s not forget it is a launch title for a new and really successful console, so sales numbers will see a steady growth over the next years.
I cannot wait to play the next iteration on BotW.
Nah. I am excited to get the new Zelda game, but Odyssey looks way better. I'm more excited to play that than Zelda, and this is coming from a huge Zelda fan.
Though great news on Zelda. I just hope they do better next time around as far as quality. That's the beauty of Zelda games though, even when they aren't at their best, they are still quality games.
Since this thing has sold faster than the Wii, I have a feeling we could see at least 80 million sales? (Maybe too optimistic?)
As long as Nintendo keeps the "one game a month" thing going, I think we're sitting pretty for a while. This year doesn't have to be as good as last, last had Zelda AND Mario (and Splatoon, and Mario Kart - technically, as well as a slew of popular indies) - I doubt last year will be topped. Well unless MP4 and Pokemon release in the same year like 2019 or something. (Pokemon for 2018 seems much more likely tho if Nintendo wants to get 20 mil units sold this year)
@luxuryheart: You do realise BotW was last years GOTY pretty much everywhere, right? It has tons of quality, and then some. Maybe Odyssey looks better to you, but If you haven’t played either of them yet I’d urge you to hold off that mindset until you do.
@techhog89: How about we wait until Switch exceeds my initial predicition before talking about 3rd best selling console.
Nah. I can predict what I want. It destroying your prediction is a 100% certainty unless something happens that prevents Nintendo from making more. Everyone but you sees that, either due to being in denial or being stubborn. But fine, I'll retract that since you're too full of yourself to even entertain the possibility. How about if I shift 65 million to be my realistic prediction and 55 million to be safe/conservative? Does that sound sane to you, or do you strongly feel that 45 million is the hard ceiling without a pure handheld version? I just can't see it selling less than NES, but it sounds like you got some stuff right in the past so you have a lot of confidence in your understanding of the gaming market.
Also, you didn't answer my question about PS4.
That is far more realistic than 100+ million units sold. I even said that if a more portable Switch gets released I could easily see it selling 60+ million units, but 100+ no way in hell. Like I've said before, Labo might be a big hit. I question the price at $70+ a pop, but who knows it might still sell like hot cakes at that price.
@emgesp: Quit hating with your shitty predictions.
Who's hating? And shitty predictions? I called the Wii being incredibly successful from the get go. Read some of my earliest posts on GS, I actually was very posititve about the system. I also predicted the Wii U was going to flop. Yes, I said Switch might flop too because of the $299.99 price point, but that was a stupid knee jerk reaction with what happened to the Wii U and I changed my prediction not long after to 35 million units sold. I've purposely set the bar low for Nintendo to prove me wrong this generation. If they can surpass my sales prediction than kudos to them, but some people are being way more optimistic than I'm being pessimistic.
So the Minish Cap is the lowest selling zelda game only 1.7 mil, pretty sad it's probably the most underrated zelda game! such a good game with beautiful spritework. It's the first zelda game that I played and made me fall in love with the franchise, Fun fact I actually bought Zelda 1 classic on the GBA and the storewomen had accidentally packaged the minish cap on the box.
@kjtc1979 said:
@Sgt_Crow said:
@stereointegrity: Mario appeals to a wider audience and has always sold better than Zelda. But yes, BotW is one of the best games ever created and way better than Odyssey. A higher percentage of Switch owners should buy the game.
I think Aonuma once said BotW needed to sell 4 million to be successful and cover the production costs, so 6.7 million for the Switch version alone is really good though. And let’s not forget it is a launch title for a new and really successful console, so sales numbers will see a steady growth over the next years.
I cannot wait to play the next iteration on BotW.
BOTW Switch is on track to be the best selling Zelda of all time on an individual platform, and BOTW combined will eventually be the best selling Zelda across all platforms, including remakes and reissues. I agree that every Switch owner should have one - I think it's the greatest game of all time - but it's still doing exceptionally well by the series' historical standards:
A system does not have to sell more than the Wii / PS2 / PS4 to be called a success. Those all sell like hotcakes. Im sure Nintendo is thrilled about the sales thus far and it appears to have some legs.
Also did Mario destroy Uncharted sales? didn't they get 8-10 mill with an install base of 40+ million?
Nintendo bringing the pain to SONY and XB
Nintendo revealed sell-through for the games, and Odyssey is actually at 7.5-8 million. They revealed attach rates as well, and as a result it's now known that actual Switch sales to consumers were at 13-14 million at the end of last year... which I suppose was obvious but still.
Also did Mario destroy Uncharted sales? didn't they get 8-10 mill with an install base of 40+ million?
Nintendo bringing the pain to SONY and XB
The Switch can surpass Xbox One LTD sales, but Cows are more afraid that it will eventually catch up to the PS4. Also, Nintendo has no competition w/any new handheld or any new gen 9 consoles anyways. Cows are being cows.
Also did Mario destroy Uncharted sales? didn't they get 8-10 mill with an install base of 40+ million?
Nintendo bringing the pain to SONY and XB
The Switch can surpass Xbox One LTD sales, but Cows are more afraid that it will eventually catch up to the PS4. Also, Nintendo has no competition w/any new handheld or any new gen 9 consoles anyways. Cows are being cows.
Sheep and Cows are threatened by each other. Most people generally fight and argue with first place and the runner up. This is why Nintendo fanboys/fangirls aren't really fighting with Xbox fans. They feel like Xbox isn't a threat, though they want to desperately catch up to the PS4 sales. Sony fanboys/fangirls aren't really arguing with the Xbox fans like that. They're now trolling Nintendo fans because they're afraid that the Switch has a chance of catching up and even beating the PS4.
Also did Mario destroy Uncharted sales? didn't they get 8-10 mill with an install base of 40+ million?
Nintendo bringing the pain to SONY and XB
The Switch can surpass Xbox One LTD sales, but Cows are more afraid that it will eventually catch up to the PS4. Also, Nintendo has no competition w/any new handheld or any new gen 9 consoles anyways. Cows are being cows.
Sheep and Cows are threatened by each other. Most people generally fight and argue with first place and the runner up. This is why Nintendo fanboys/fangirls aren't really fighting with Xbox fans. They feel like Xbox isn't a threat, though they want to desperately catch up to the PS4 sales. Sony fanboys/fangirls aren't really arguing with the Xbox fans like that. They're now trolling Nintendo fans because they're afraid that the Switch has a chance of catching up and even beating the PS4.
Not a chance. You seen Sony's latest numbers today?
No way Switch is catching up. It's doing very well but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Also did Mario destroy Uncharted sales? didn't they get 8-10 mill with an install base of 40+ million?
Nintendo bringing the pain to SONY and XB
The Switch can surpass Xbox One LTD sales, but Cows are more afraid that it will eventually catch up to the PS4. Also, Nintendo has no competition w/any new handheld or any new gen 9 consoles anyways. Cows are being cows.
Sheep and Cows are threatened by each other. Most people generally fight and argue with first place and the runner up. This is why Nintendo fanboys/fangirls aren't really fighting with Xbox fans. They feel like Xbox isn't a threat, though they want to desperately catch up to the PS4 sales. Sony fanboys/fangirls aren't really arguing with the Xbox fans like that. They're now trolling Nintendo fans because they're afraid that the Switch has a chance of catching up and even beating the PS4.
Not a chance. You seen Sony's latest numbers today?
No way Switch is catching up. It's doing very well but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
The Switch is outpacing every console right now. It outselling the PS4's lifetime sales depends on if Nintendo can keep this momentum going and more. Pokemon and Animal Crossing are coming this year, so that's a HUGE potential boost in sales. After that, they can come out with 2D Mario, a true Mario Kart sequel, Super Smash Brothers, Metroid, and more third party multiplats/exclusives. Nintendo also has a partnership with a Chinese company that makes some popular MMO games on PC (huge in China), so that's potential for them to do well in the Chinese market if they ever decide to enter. It depends on if Nintendo can keep the momentum and more going though, hence the threat on both ends. Not that Sony fans want it to flop since competition, but I highly doubt a fan wants another company doing better than theirs.
In a nutshell: Nintendo fans are worried that Nintendo won't keep the momentum going while Sony fans are worried that they will.
The Switch can surpass Xbox One LTD sales, but Cows are more afraid that it will eventually catch up to the PS4. Also, Nintendo has no competition w/any new handheld or any new gen 9 consoles anyways. Cows are being cows.
Sheep and Cows are threatened by each other. Most people generally fight and argue with first place and the runner up. This is why Nintendo fanboys/fangirls aren't really fighting with Xbox fans. They feel like Xbox isn't a threat, though they want to desperately catch up to the PS4 sales. Sony fanboys/fangirls aren't really arguing with the Xbox fans like that. They're now trolling Nintendo fans because they're afraid that the Switch has a chance of catching up and even beating the PS4.
Not a chance. You seen Sony's latest numbers today?
No way Switch is catching up. It's doing very well but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
The Switch is outpacing every console right now. It outselling the PS4's lifetime sales depends on if Nintendo can keep this momentum going and more. Pokemon and Animal Crossing are coming this year, so that's a HUGE potential boost in sales. After that, they can come out with 2D Mario, a true Mario Kart sequel, Super Smash Brothers, Metroid, and more third party multiplats/exclusives. Nintendo also has a partnership with a Chinese company that makes some popular MMO games on PC (huge in China), so that's potential for them to do well in the Chinese market if they ever decide to enter. It depends on if Nintendo can keep the momentum and more going though, hence the threat on both ends. Not that Sony fans want it to flop since competition, but I highly doubt a fan wants another company doing better than theirs.
In a nutshell: Nintendo fans are worried that Nintendo won't keep the momentum going while Sony fans are worried that they will.
It isn't currently. It remains to be seen as PS4 sold over 20 million consoles last year while Switch sold over 14 million. I know the Switch wasn't out for a whole year, and first year sales tend to be lower for consoles but until it starts selling over 20 million a year you can't say it's outpacing the PS4. It's outpacing PS4's first year but it isn't outpacing the PS4 right now. It remains to be seen whether Switch can keep up the momentum but it will be tough if they don't get a Pokemon or price drop this year. A stellar Mario and Zelda in the same year will be tough to beat.
Even if the Switch starts outselling the PS4 yearly by let's say by 5 million units a year, it would still take it 12 years to make up for the gap between it and the PS4 for it to catch up. That's not a realistic scenario in any way. Switch doesn't have a chance of catching up this gen to PS4 but it does have a very small chance of overtaking the Xbone.
I'm not really surprised by the numbers. The Switch is a first-of-it's-kind hybrid console that came out with Nintendo's heaviest titles outside of Pokemon. When they release Pokemon it'll rise even higher. I think the bigger tell-tale sign of the Switch's success will be what comes after. What keeps the PS4 going isn't a strong set of year one titles or fanboyism, it's a constant influx of new titles that combine a fairly diverse portfolio of games.
The Switch doesn't seem like it's going to be getting too many current gen 3rd-party titles, so it's going to really be on Nintendo to expand a library that consists more of then just their standard titles, indy games, and old last-gen games. If I was Nintendo, I'd definitely be using some of that extra cash to be picking up young-and-upcoming studios.
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