NX not to be sold at a loss. Nintendoomed or Smart?

I'm rummaging through their financials and I can't find any indication of their home console's profit. I have revenue numbers, but nada on profits.

It's not you could read all that properly anyway

I'm reading it fine.

I see $1.8 billion in home consoles (Combining all console hardware and software revenues). Handhelds brought in similar amounts.

Nintendo had ~$4.5 revenue and made a $300 million profit for the last FY. That shows a $4.2 billion operating cost + taxes for Nintendo.

Imagine both the NX and next handheld flopping worse than ever before. Revenues could be brought down to only $2 billion total for both console and handheld, bringing Nintendo's annual profit down to a glorious -$2.2 billion/year. They'll be gone within 4-5 years.

So much for "NINTENDO HAS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS!!!"

Cry more, sheep.

From 2014: https://twitter.com/gibbogame/status/464217206100738048?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

He got that from the financials posted that day. FY2014 also happened to be when Nintendo returned to profitability.

That's not how it works but okay. See you in 4 years.

No loss on hardware does not mean overall profitability. It only means that each unit's selling rate is higher than its assembly + packing rate.

Every company has a fixed operating cost (Employee salary, rent, utility bills, R&D, etc). For a company like Nintendo, they use billions of dollars each year to maintain their business. Only selling 1 unit for a $100 profit does not mean the entire company overall will be profitable.

Yes,and about those 15 millions X1 sold

Yeah, I'm a business major, I know. Assuming that they'll be in the red with NX for sure based on nothing, however, is... Well, it's something that you would do. We'll just see how that pans out. I know that you're just a character, so I'm not really up for putting effort into this.

Nintendo took a loss per unit for the Wii U despite its weaksauce specs.

Why? Because Nintendo does not have the economies of scale SONY has. Nintendo has to pay out of their ass to get specs half as decent as what SONY gets.

With Nintendo obviously not confident about the NX, they are probably placing a lot less orders from suppliers than they have for the Wii U, meaning suppliers can squeeze Nintendo pretty hard. Despite this huge disadvantage, Nintendo won't be taking a loss on the NX, meaning the NX will be weaksauce just like the Wii U.

So no, I'm not basing its upcoming failure on nothing.

Cool. So, how powerful can it be at $300, and how much would it need to cost to match PS4? Also, you feel that Nintendo won't try to do anything to stay alive and will simply declare bankruptcy in 2021?

Weaker than the Xbone. Slightly stronger if Nintendo got lucky with deals.

With Nintendo's scale, I'd say the NX would need to cost $700 minimum to match the PS4.

Haha, okay. And how much to match PS4? Also, you feel that Nintendo won't try to do anything to stay alive and will simply declare bankruptcy in 2021?

They'll go third party.

For X86 PC business, economies of scale is spread across multiple OEM vendors.

The main driver for AMD's semi-custom business unit is to leverage PC's economies of scale NOT another PowerPC BS. AMD is spreading it's cost across multiple OEM vendors. Removing IBM's CPU IP and Rambus XDR are big cost savers.

Both MS and Sony has nuked IBM's IP cost from their consoles.

They've said multiple times that they'll never do that.

Shhhhh, you're going to spoil the fun. Also, NX will use an ARM CPU (though the same point applies, if not more so).

Multiple vendors bring the average manufacturing price down, but it does not mean the supplier has to charge the same amount for every vendor.

A vendor who is a bigger seller will not tolerate getting the same rate as a lower seller. Furthermore, the average selling rate for the supplier is skewed by vendors with bigger scale (SONY), so the actual selling rate to lower scale clients like Nintendo will be much higher than the average.

Whatever Nintendo is getting, AMD will give SONY something 2x as better for half the price.

You really think a company still generating revenue from selling hardware will say they will go third party openly? They may not say anything about third party out in the open, but you can bet your sweet juicy ass that Nintendo execs are contemplating it behind closed doors. I thought you were a business major.

See, here's the thing. You may have your fancy business BA from Harvard or Wharton or whatever, but I actually own my own import/export, customs brokerage + actuarial firm netting $7 million per year. And all I have is a math, econ double major degree from a top 15 university.

You need common sense to succeed in business, not degrees or education.

Still doesn't mean that they'll go third-party. They'll just look for another business venture any maybe keep software limited to smartphones.

Also, you're the reason business owners hire accountants. Your $2.5 billion annual loss estimate was hilarious.

Nintendo doesn't know anything except gaming. If both their handheld and consoles are netting them tons of losses, they will go third party.

What else are they going to do? At least with mario on the Xbox and PlayStation, they have the name brand to get higher software sales than ever. Branching out to a new industry is very risky.

You're right. They've been making video games for nearly 130 years, after all.

Yeah, why doesn't Nintendo just bring back playing cards again. I'm sure that'll bring in billions of dollars in revenue like gaming consoles. LOL...

@notafanboy: They do have one of the top playing card games in Pokemon. The new sets coming soon.

So, when do you predict Nintendo will go third-party? 2018?

2019 -2021.

And this is a certainty? There's nothing they can do about it?

Also, when do you expect the first $2.5 billion loss to be posted?

@ronvalencia: NX won't be $400.

http://gamingbolt.com/how-much-should-the-ps4k-neo-and-nintendo-nx-cost

$349 for NX.

PCPartPicker part list: http://pcpartpicker.com/p/RhywwP

Price breakdown by merchant: http://pcpartpicker.com/p/RhywwP/by_merchant/

CPU: AMD FX-4300 3.8GHz Quad-Core Processor ($69.99 @ Newegg)

Motherboard: MSI 760GM-P23 (FX) Micro ATX AM3+ Motherboard ($43.25 @ OutletPC)

Memory: Crucial 8GB (1 x 8GB) DDR3-1600 Memory ($24.99 @ SuperBiiz)

Storage: Seagate Pipeline HD 500GB 3.5" 5900RPM Internal Hard Drive ($36.95 @ Newegg)

Video Card: MSI Radeon R7 265 2GB Video Card ($103.98 @ Newegg)

Case: Azza Cosmas ATX Mid Tower Case ($14.99 @ Newegg)

Power Supply: Thermaltake 450W 80+ Bronze Certified ATX Power Supply ($21.40 @ Newegg)

Optical Drive: Pioneer BDC-207DBK Blu-Ray Reader, DVD/CD Writer ($35.00 @ Other World Computing)

Total: $350.55

Prices include shipping, taxes, and discounts when available

Generated by PCPartPicker 2016-05-03 22:31 EDT-0400

http://www.vooks.net/keen-on-the-nintendo-nx-you-can-preorder-it-at-eb-games-already/

EB Games Australia is selling NX for $999 AUD (lol, place holder).

Miyamoto said that $350 is too much. It'll be $300, sold without a loss.

@techhog89:

Loss shmoss. Truth is that we dont know the contractual agreement between Nintendo and the other parties involved. For example, Nintendo could be getting a newer part for far cheaper if the length of the contract is longer and includes cost/per in finer detail.

Emily Rogers also dismissed Polaris 11 and Polaris 10 can't go into $300 game console.

PCPartPicker part list: http://pcpartpicker.com/p/8bpqLk

Price breakdown by merchant: http://pcpartpicker.com/p/8bpqLk/by_merchant/

CPU: AMD 5350 2.05Ghz Quad-Core Processor ($36.99 @ SuperBiiz)

Motherboard: ECS KAM1-I(1.0) Mini ITX AM1 Motherboard ($22.99 @ Amazon)

Memory: Crucial 8GB (1 x 8GB) DDR3-1600 Memory ($24.99 @ SuperBiiz)

Storage: Seagate Pipeline HD 500GB 3.5" 5900RPM Internal Hard Drive ($36.95 @ Newegg)

Video Card: MSI Radeon R7 265 2GB Video Card ($103.98 @ Newegg)

Case: Azza Cosmas ATX Mid Tower Case ($14.99 @ Newegg)

Power Supply: Thermaltake 450W 80+ Bronze Certified ATX Power Supply ($21.40 @ Newegg)

Optical Drive: Pioneer BDC-207DBK Blu-Ray Reader, DVD/CD Writer ($35.00 @ Other World Computing)

Total: $297.29

Prices include shipping, taxes, and discounts when available

Generated by PCPartPicker 2016-05-03 23:29 EDT-0400

The next step down is XBO''s APU type hardware with Bonaire IGP.

Rumors point to there being no optical drive. Also, she didn't dismiss Polaris 11 specifically.

2.5 TFLOPS Polaris points to Polaris 11 (20 CU).

ER has stated "Power level is wrong" and "GPU is wrong" hence no Polaris for NX.

I'm not even considering Polaris 10/11 for NX.

I'm looking at FX-8800's IGP (8 CU with Tonga's updates), Bonaire (14 CU), Pitcairn (20 CU) with Hawaii's updates (i.e. PS4's Liverpool),

But what if she's wrong? Without 14nm, NX will be super weak because Nintendo will want to keep the power consumption under 50W. Also, where did you get 2.5 TFLOPs from?

Let's see, there's a FinFET Jaguar update which is better than 2nd gen 28nm Puma+.

FinFET Bonaire (14 CU, ~80 mm^2) could replace 28 nm Oland Pro (6 CU) SKUs i.e. 77 mm^2 size chip market segment.

Chip size replacements

Pitcairn/Liverpool (20 CU, 212 mm^2) ---> Polaris 10 (40 CU, ~232mm^2) e.g. PS4 NEO, iMac 2016, R9-480X/480

Cape Verde (10 CU, 123 mm^2) ---> Polaris 11 (20 CU, ~108 mm^2). 15 inch slim laptops e.g. MacBook Pro 15 inch 2016. R9-470X/470

Oland Pro (6 CU), 77 mm^2 ---> FinFET Bonaire (14 CU, ~80 mm^2) with Polaris improvements. This is the missing Polaris GCN for 13 inch ultrabooks.

Proposed NX

CPU: FinFET Jaguar 2.1 Ghz Quad Core.

GPU: FinFET Bonaire (14 CU, ~80 mm^2), 12 CU active with clock speeds of >1Ghz. May include Polaris updates e.g. geometry engine improvements. .1200Mhz yields 1.843 TFLOPS

ALL under 50 watts.

With FinFET, AMD could double FX-8800p(15 watts to 34 watts)'s 8 CU IGP into 16 CU IGP... 1050Mhz yields 2.1 TFLOPS.

AMD is currently missing a few FinFET GPUs in the low end/low power/low price segments e.g. renamed current Oland Pro into low end Rx-M4x0 series.

40 watt Polaris 11 is too high for 50 watts system.

Power is a moot point right now, theres nothing on PC that makes me think otherwise and the PS4K is a sign that Sony isnt done with the 8th gen, the PS4 is their golden goose no way are they going to replace it.

A profitable low spec, efficient and affordable Nintendo machine is the way to go! It could be the Wii of the 9th generation, they just need to market it a little differently so the macho kids can enjoy it too without getting all insecure.

If Microsofts new Xbox computer is a hige success it might force Sonys hand, but who has the time and resources to make games that look and play better than real life? EA, Activision and Ubisoft might have a stab at it but their creatively bankrupt and i dont see them taking a risk on something like that.