[QUOTE="SUD123456"][QUOTE="the-very-best"]
It's just million sellers. I didn't count anything below that because those games probably didn't warrant any attention from casuals, and casuals are the focus of my argument.the-very-best
This is where I must punish you to make a point....a point that dang near everyone has wrong. It is simple really.
Pick your top 10 franchises from the PS2 and examine their sales. Take the best selling versions of those franchises and add them together. Ask yourself whether anyone bought, 1 or 2, or 3 or any combination of those games. Compare the total to the PS2 install base.
Half yes half as in 50% or more of PS2 owners did not buy ANY, as in not one, as in definately not 2, as in notta, zip, zero, zilch of the top 10 franchises. Any reasonable look at the numbers demonstrates this.
Because the real strength of the PS2 was the sheer number and diversity of games. Something for everyone. It was the games NOT selling 1 million+ which led to the huge PS2 install base.
This is the real issue MS is facing. It isn't Viva Pinata selling a lot. Or Viva Pinata 2 selling more. It is whether they can bring 250 Viva Pinata type games to the market.
I'm confused - Are you agreeing or disagreeing with the OP? Either way, I agree with your points... but if there's no demand for games like VP, then MS isn't going to make them. They're only going to make a couple to subdue any criticisms that the 360 is a 100% shooter console, despite the reality that they know the games won't be commercially successful. That fault is largely due to gamers themselves.
3rd party publishers are already getting millions of shooters so why would they need to try anything else? The problem of 360 not getting an expansion in the userbase is not theirs.
I am disagreeing with the OP...strongly. I agree that MS has a challenge. I disagree entirely with your OP about the nature of the challenge and the nature of the solution.
To win the war you need variety and lots of it. Yes you need some hits, but a few hits e.g. million + sellers is not what wins the war. A ton of lesser but decent games in all genres wins the war. One only needs to look at the huge number of games of the PS1 and PS2 that scored average and sold less than a million. That is the glue in between the main franchises. It is easily demonstrable that a large % of Sony buyers in previous generations did not buy any of the big hits, none, zero, nilch, nada. But they must have bought something, no?
Now to some degree it is a chicken and egg. You need some hits and sales success of some franchises in order to attract more of the average games in all genres. And you need a big enough install base that developers simply need to access a small % of that install base to be reasonably successful.
However, all of this needs to be placed in the context of probability of profit...which is function of development cost vs sales success.
The Wii is in the best position because you can develop cheaply and the install base is the largest and the distribution of consumers is probably broadest. Ergo highest probability of success for average dvelopers with average games.
The 360 is in the mid-position because the development is easier than the PS3 using normal practices...ergo cheaper. It has a decent sized install base, but a very attractive attach rate. The issue you are asking is about the distribution of 360 owners. Your evidence is top sellers...and you lump anything that has a gun in it into a fake category of shooters. Only half the games you list are not shooters and the developers of those games do not view the games as shooters. I have an issue with that.
However, my bigger issue is that you are examining the wrong data. 3rd party developers are not all morons. While I am sure many hope their games are blockbusters, the business fundamentals are not about blockbusters. Every game cannot be a blockbuster and if everyone ran their companies as if every game had to be...the industry would fail. Most games are developed with smaller development treams, over less time, with a more modest budget and lower expectations of sales. The benchmark for those games is not million + sellers.
Meaning, virtually every word of your OP is wrong IMO. It isn't your list of supposed shooters that matters. It is tier two sales results that matter as that is what attracts or doesn't the mid tier games/developers. And in that, there are quite a few good 360 successes. More so for instance than the PS3 which has had innumerable dismal results in what should be decent tier two games....and at higher development costs. Problematic for Sony and IMO a horrid business strategy with their HW for this generation.
In any case, the Wii is unstoppable and MS and Sony are battling for last. While I have my doubts about MS ability to broaden its base by huge amounts, I don't think it is because of their top sellers. I think it is simply they lack scale in first and 2nd party games/developers and they won't easily over come Nintendo or Sony on that front...they just can't push out the sheer volume of games that the others can. Still I'd rather be MS than Sony, because all fanboy BS aside...MS is going to grow their share somewhere between moderately and significantly while Sony is suffering one of the worst product share meltdowns in recent memory. And Nintendo...money making gods in the short term.
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