Predict where Nintendo Switch's sales will be at the end of 2017

I'm not asking to try and predict where the Switch's lifetime sales will fall - there is too much uncertainty around the console to know for sure just how it will perform in the long run, good or bad - but we have a pretty good idea of how this year will pan out.

So, given this: predict where the Nintendo Switch's sales will be as of December 31, 2017. In case you need context, as of right now, 2.4 million units have been estimated to have been sold worldwide, of which 550,000 are in Japan, 1.1 million are in the US, and the rest are in PAL territories. The Nintendo Switch has been out for seven weeks.

With that context in mind, where do you think the Switch's sales will be by the end of the year?

I'll start us off: 9 million by the end of this year.

They will not sell anymore if people find out there are no waifus yet. 2018.

@alibaba_: Mipha though...

Im going to say 7 million units in total for the rest of the year

So 7 million cumulative, or 7 after the 2.4 it already has?

cumulative

5 million.. 6 being the max. They already peaked so its downhill from here on out.

I'm gonna guess 6-8 million by the end of 2017

Somewhere in the range of 7-10 million. I'd say more optimistically between 9 and 10 million.

Lucky if Nintendo will sell 5 million. It's a zelda machine and people are buying it for that. Sales are going to drop off sharply.

@tjandmia: ARMS™ though...

@aigis: Dumb games like that are why the console is not going to sell well. Too kiddie.

@tjandmia: I dunno, ARMS™ is hardcore af

@aigis: :)

5 to 6 million. No lower, definitely room to be higher. Safe prediction is safe.

They're gonna get the holiday bump obviously, but they need to go all out. Strong E3 showing, strong marketing push towards the end of the year, bundles with MK8D, BotW, maybe even Mario Odyssey.

The only uncertainty here (as usual for the company) is Nintendo themselves. They need to be aggressive, but will they? My prediction is based on the assumption that they won't lol.

I predict about 10 million by the end of this year. Maybe even a little more than that if Nintendo is aggressive and makes the right moves.

Most likely 13 million.

It'll slow down but stay healthy if they can keep bringing games out that people want.

If they maintain current sales I could see them hitting 8 billion plus.

@charizard1605: 6 million. Nintendo will still struggle to meet current demand, and by the time the console is easily available, a lot of the momentum will have already been lost. However, I think if they can fix their supply issues, and maybe even offer a $50 price cut around the holiday season, they'll easily sell 9 mill.

I'm going to say 9-10 million through the Holiday season, because I can't imagine them manufacturing more than that.

I didn't expect there to be shortages still, because I couldn't imagine that 2 million units wouldn't be enough to meet demand.

For those still looking, Best Buy will have a big allotment that they're releasing this Friday, April 28, along with the Mario Kart 8 launch.

Fate/Extella, a PS4 port is coming to the switch this year

5-6mil...I am happy to be proven wrong...cause I am already getting the feeling that some games that were shown said to be coming in 2017 will be push back to 2018. So yea...E3 will probably shed a better light. :P

5.5 million.

7-8 million total sales by the end of the year.

If my prediction about Pokemon Stars launching early-mid 2018 is correct, I'll say 20 million by the end of 2018.

10 Million +. I have a feeling this Mario game is going to do really well for the system. Zelda, Mario, Splatoon and a definitive Mario Kart all in one year is going to make the Switch a very appealing product this holiday. I personally can't wait for Fire Emblem Warriors and Xenoblade 2 as well. I still think the day one offerings besides Zelda sucked, but this may be the best first year line up I seen ever for a console.

10million

Discontinued for the true successor....the SNES Mini

8 million is my guess.

12M.

Based on what we know right now, I will say 6.5 cumulative by year's end.

But I'd change the amount if plans for a Pokemon and Smash Bros. port were known.

I'm going to say about 6 million give or take.

Well they want to have 13 million made total my March (I think that is what they said.) So I would say about 8-9 million my X-mas.

I wonder how much units per month Nintendo is making right now. It is late April and the thing is still impossible to find, and we are hearing that Nintendo is restocking continually.

They've likely already accelerated production, probably in time for April even. Is it such a stretch that the thing will have 4-5 million sold by the end of May? (a million per month) I would consider this to be the launch window of hype.

To me, this thing is clearly a hit with the mainstream consumer. Nintendo said they plan to have 16 million shipped by next march, so that's likely 12-13 million by the end of this december. Nintendo will sell all of that.

Depends. When's Odyssey coming out?

Depends on if they can meet demand. I still can't find one anywhere.

6 million, maybe more.

Having the thing out of stock is my reason for the low number.

Games like Zelda get canceled out by stuff like 1, 2 Switch, Arms, Splatoon 2...

while they may be good games in their own right, they give off the kiddie persona you mentioned.

This is a hot device right now. I also can't remember the last time we expected both a new 3D Mario and a new 3D Zelda within 9 month of launch (Wii came close, but they were a year apart). They even have the Mario Kart port in there for good measure... this should be as good a first year as Nintendo's ever had. Double digit sales aren't impossible.

Nintendo sold over 11 million 3DSs in a similar timeframe, and the 3DS got off to a rocky start that the Switch never had.

6 billion.

8-9 million

6 million

The 3DS is seeing strong support this year from first and third party, but that also means that whatever first-party teams already released a game in the past 12 months are already transitioned to Switch games. Also, as much as people want to talk about how weak/underpowered the Switch is, it's a major windfall for developers who don't want to have long AAA development cycles (which there are many of).

I'm expecting a massive E3 for Nintendo, now. Their 3DS releases from July to the holidays are strong, but it's now very obvious that their big franchises are well underway for Switch. There is literally no way this falls short of 10M by end of December.

Umm, 3DS had a great launch, selling out in Japan, being the most pre-ordered system for Amazon UK, and being the fastest selling Nintendo portable console in the US. It was the post launch sales that dissappointed, prompting Nintendo to slash the price by nearly a third. This was at a launch price of $250 vs $300 for the Switch. Nintendo could do this because the cost of materials was around $101. With the Switch costing around $257, it's unlikely they'll do the same if sales lag post launch and take a loss.

I do think there's enough demand, however, to reach 6 million enthusiasts and Nintendo faithful.

I'd say 5-6 million but I'd like to wait till E3 to make a better guess.

9.5 million and by March 18 it will of outsold The Wiiu.

There is a potential for momentum and hype to keep going with Splatoon and Mario around the corner and maybe some nasty new announcements in E3 like a new Mario Kart or New Smash or anything big like that.

With media and fans praising Zelda , cant wait for Mario , hyping Splatoon already and artificial or not systems shortage , make things more interesting to keep the buzz going. Switch might end up sell way better than most could imagine in 2017 . Its up how Nintendo will handle this momentum and if games like Splatoon 2 or Mario will get a price cut bundle box or not imho.

@asylumni: While I did appreciate those interesting news relics (always fun to read in hindsight), I consider the post launch slump to be a part of "the start" for the 3DS. Between the launch and the price cut, we're talking about a period of 5 months where the 3DS clearly underperformed expectations.

The Switch is nearly 2 months old and is still impossible to find anywhere. I don't see any indication that the Switch and 3DS's first few months on sale will be similar at all. Nor do I see any pressure for Nintendo to do a price cut, regardless of the cost of materials. The demand is still there for the Switch, and there's no sign of it abating, even if it is primarily buoyed by Zelda.