Rumor: Nintendo drops the ball, puts Retro on "experimental non-game" (Wii audience, possibly Labo)

@Bread_or_Decide: You guys with your 100 million estimates are ridiculous. This is not Wii all over again.

@emgesp: Okaaayyyyy

@Bread_or_Decide: Lazy response. Please tell me why you think the Switch is going to hit 100 million units when not even the 3DS could and when you look at Nintendo's past their handhelds have always been their best sellers.

I think it's too early to say with any certainty that the Switch will hit 100 million units, but it should be obvious by now that it's a real possibility, and for a myriad of reasons. I'd happily explain why, though I think it would work better as a new thread than as a response to a dying clickbait thread.

You literally think that your opinion represents the entire market, even though the market response indicates otherwise. A $300 Switch has similar to better demand than a $170 3DS, yet it will sell 30-40 million less because you said so... ok.

Honestly, you're so thick that this feels kinda pointless. I'm sure of my analysis though. If Switch doesn't cross the 35 million mark before PS5 releases, your PS5 will be a free gift from me. Really, it'll probably be around 50 million by then, so the bet amount doesn't matter. You don't have to bet anything, since I don't like to take advantage of less knowledgeable people. I'll tell you this though: Nintendo seemingly wants to order over 20 million units for production in the next FY. Only selling 6 million after putting in an order like that would be a massive blow to Nintendo's bottom line and stock price, and since Nintendo isn't going to make another dedicated handheld, they won't risk Switch failing. If it starts to look like your guessing is accurate, there will be an emergency price cut because it would take too long and cost too much to reduce the production target that drastically.

@techhog89: You're right I'm wrong, Switch will be the best selling Nintendo console ever and will easily outsell the PS4. Happy?

@techhog89: I’m a slow reader. Took me more like 30. I won’t get those 30 back either! :(

No, you're missing the point. Real talk, I've just learned a lot about business and irks me that someone would be so convicted to a prediction that looks at every factor except the Switch itself and the market. It might be a slight OCD thing because it's driving me crazy since I know you're smarter than this. It not being as portable as 3DS is irrelevant since global demand is having no trouble keeping up with 3DS demand. You're just predicting that demand will die and fall to later Nintendo console levels excluding Wii because... idk, your gut says so. My predictions are based on actual data that goes beyond lifetime totals of previous hardware. Basically, you're looking at too few factors for any of this to make sense.

Let me give you an example: PS2's success was strongly helped by it being a cheap DVD player. They tried the same with PS3 and Blu-Ray, and that should have ended up around 90 million, which is a decline but not bad at all. PS4 doesn't push any media format. Therefore, you could have said based on that that PS4 couldn't possibly sell more than 45 million. You would have called anyone using that sort of logic in 2014 crazy, right? And then One S should be a massive success due to being as cheap UHD Blu-Ray player... Nope, didn't help at all. The video game market is incredibly volatile and can have massive shifts based on just one or two factors; as a result, when making any sort of prediction you have to consider a large number of factors altogether, as many as you have available, and come to a conclusion based on all of them to even come close to being right. You just arbitrarily make up a number based on how you feel about something, and on top of that you don't even consider future factors. This portability thing for example: Why isn't that a factor in first year sales? Do you just feel that the first year lineup is so strong that Switch will sell nearly half of its lifetime total in 13 months? That's just not a thing that happens. You also believe that if sales drop massively this year Nintendo won't cut the price much if at all, I assume because of what happened with Wii U. I could give you a short essay on why you can't apply that logic.

Either way, I'm not saying that it'll definitely sell over 100 million or pass Wii. Basically, I think it'll be closer to 100 million than to 35 million unless something goes wrong, and that Wii's success is vastly overrated by some people here. PS1 and Wii sold around the same amount, but got there in completely different ways. I think that, if Swich lands close to 100 million, it won't be due to selling like crazy like Wii, but instead due to decent sales in the last two years after amazing sales in addition to amazing sales for the first 3 years. We're looking at around 16-17 million shipped by April 1st this year (which is a safe estimate), so let's say that years 2 and 3 average to around 18 million each, and years 4 and 5 see a big decline to an average of about 12, and then year 6 is about 7 million due to a successor being announced and released. 17+18+18+12+12+7= 84 million.

Your 35 million estimate requires a steady, massive decline. So, it would be, what, 16+10+5+3+2+2? 16+8+5+4+3+3? That's not a success; that's a fad. You're saying that Switch was lightning in a bottle last year. You can keep the 45 million estimate since 16+10+7+5+4+4 wouldn't be the silliest thing in the world, but 35 million is completely ruled out. It's not possible for it to be that low unless Nintendo stop making them after hitting that number.

Stop taking rumors as facts. Unless it is officially confirmed by Nintendo, what I read is what it is, a rumor.

They are selling cardboard! If it fails they will have to close Nintendo forever cause cardboard is too expensive! Doomed I tell you DOOMED!

I've got a great idea for Nintendo's next venture. Nintendo "Sand". By wetting this "sand" and using plastic shapes (known as "castles" to mould them you could come up with all sorts of possibilities. Mario shaped "sand" face? You betcha!

£250.

I did no such thing.

Riiiight....

Looks like my fears were justified after all. Nintendo is focusing 100% on the Wii audience this year while the people who drove Switch to success last year get ports and scraps. This WILL backfire for them, and will make what could have been a 100 million selling console a 50-70 million seller at best (but will definitely sell more than 35 million no matter what). Hopefully they prove this wrong, but I have no hope.

I said it was a rumor.

And you acted like it's verified.

I said it could be wrong.

After announcing Labo Nintendo's worth has gone up 1.4 billion. Labo is number 1 on Amazon.

I fed the troll TS.

Which ball is that, the mega-prize winning pachinko ball? The market is going nuts for Labo.

I agree, people really should stop taking rumors as facts. Some rumors will be false.

It's also taking up the #2 spot too.

@techhog89: And as I said before if they beat my original 35 million prediction I will be very impressed. Coming off the Wii U flop that would be fantastic. I'm intentionally setting the bar low for Nintendo because of my low expectations of that company. Though, I still base my numbers on the fact that its still not a true 3DS replacement, yet.

Smaller form factor + $200 price point and I don't doubt it could hit 60 million sold, but we will have to wait and see if Nintendo ever decides to make a true portable Switch. The reason why I say that is because of the detachable controllers. Either they will have to make even smaller detachable controllers, or not have detachable controllers at all for a more portable Switch. The current Joy-cons are already very small.