I disagree with you.
MS shot themselves in the foot with the RROD fiasco. That imo is what kept the PS3 competitive its first 3 years on the market when the 360's library was clearly superior to PS3's library of games.
After PS3's 3rd year when MS finally released some reliable hardware, PS3's library was good enough to go head to head with 360's and both consoles have been pretty much neck and neck since. IMO, MS could have ran away with this gen if it weren't for their crappy hardware and the only reason MS did so well was because they built up a strong fan base that 1st year when the 360 was the only next gen console available. Launching first may not be the only variable that counts when deciding which console will be the most successful but it sure as hell is an important one.
PS1 launched ahead of the N64 and imo that is why PS1 did so well. Could you imagine PS1 going head to head with N64 launching with Battle Arena Toshinden and Ridge Racer vs the N64 launch that had Super Mario 64 and Wave Race? That would have put Nintendo millions of consoles ahead of Sony and Nintendo almost certainly would have continued that momentum with Golden Eye and Zelda OOT. How about PS2 vs Xbox? The crappy PS2 launch vs the Xbox launch that had Halo. Almost certainly the Xbox would have stole much more market share had the Xbox launched along side the PS2. With a 1 year head start Sony built up a nice stable of exclusives that MS couldn't touch at launch.
EG101
There is zero evidence the RROD hurt the 360 sales. If you look at their sales numbers from launch right through the RROD "fiasco" you will see their sales were steady if not slowly increasing that whole time. There is zero evidence RROD hurt their sales. Further, the DRE problem didn't hurt Sony and they handled that a million times worse than MS handled the RROD issue.
Further, MS has more than doubled their sales from last gen AND greatly increased their market share in North America making it arguably the #1 console in NA (for core gamers for sure). So it is just theory crafting to argue MS's sales would have been some hypothetically higher number if only RROD didn't happen. This is pure specualtion with zero data to support it.
The PS1 was an unproven and uncertain product. Before the PS1, no other console made by a "third" company survived. None. When I bought the PS1 at launch only one single store in my city carried it and they only had 6 because nobody even knew what the hell a Playstation was if they weren't a gaming nerd like I was. What helped the PS1 wasn't the "headstart" (which it didn't have because Sega was coming off the very popular Genesis), but the TIMING of Sony coming into the race and their policies at the time.
When Sony came out with the PS1, they attracted (and even stole) developers who were once tied to other consoles. FOr example, Square and their Final Fantasy franchise. At that time, developers were fed up with Sega and especially Nintendo trying to control them as essentially owners. Sony promised much lower developer fees, promised to support third party games just as strongly as first party titles AND went so far as to promise not to directly compete against third party developers with first party titles. This was HUGE, especially since Nintendo had along history of imposing their "family" standards on developers and would then release their own Mario title the same time third parties were planning to release their own platformer. Sony was also the first company to really push wierd, innovative and Niche titles, often allowing asian games to be moved over to the NA market. Something that was extremely rare for non-major titles at the time. Hell, Nintendo didn't even bother bringing all FF titles over which is why FF6 in japan was FF 3 in NA.
Add that to the FACT that Nintendo's refusal to use a standard storage medium further increased costs for developers as not only did they pay developer feed, they also had to buy the carts from Nintendo as well. after all that there was no guarantee that developers would have decent sales anyway because Nintendo could just sabatage them by releasing their own big name titles the same week.
If you look back at the PS1's time, it wasn't the headstart that was a benefit to Sony, it was third party developers leaving Nintedo and Sega in droves to focus on the PS instead. It was the massive influx of games as Sony opened the Japanese floodgates to ensure gamers had tons of games to chose from at all times, in all genres and styles.
Sorry, but never in a million years will anyone convince me that the "headstart" matters. There is just zero evidence to support that. It is just another "myth" of gaming that has been repeated so much people start confusing it for "conventional wisdom". And if you believe these myths, then you shouldn't have any faith in the Xbox brand anyway because according to SW "conventional wisdom" the third console of a company is always a failure.
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