Quite a few factors that people are overlooking in this debate:
1. What if MS and Nintendo tool their consoles to target the casual audience? The Wii-U's controller is certainly a novel concept and Kinect is keeping the 360 afloat in the face of the growing worldwide fanbase that the PS3 garners this gen.. Not to mention the near complete lack of core-gamer exclusive titles coming from internal MS studios.
2. No BluRay startup costs this time around, nor massive Cell R&D. Think about it. While the process for creating blue laser diodes was at it's most expensive, Sony had to contend with the HD-DVD Association competing for those diodes. This greatly inflated the cost of launching the PS3. The STI partnership with Toshiba and IBM was also a pretty large cost in putting the PS3 on shelves. Now, a BluRay drive is pretty much the same cost in manufacturing that at DVD drive was back in 2004. It is also in-house technology to them which saves a bit of cost from licensing and such.
3. By launching last, whatever technology they do want to run with this time around can also be brought down in price of manufacturing. If you think Sony is launching a $600 console again, you should probably stop eating paint chips. It ain't happening.
Sony is in a position to bake their cake and eat it too by having a powerful system and launch at a competitive price range. They also need this year to establish Vita. It would be against their own interests to not spread their hardware launch cycle. Today, Sony is the heel. Tomorrow, you may be thanking your lucky stars for them.
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