The Definitive Rebuttal: 'Metal Gear Solid is not a system seller'

One of the most often repeated SW myths is that MGS might be a good game, but it's not a system seller.

Proponents often proceed by way of three arguments, which I'll refute individually.

Argument #1: MGS is not mainstream.

No, it's not, but that doesn't mean it isn't a system seller. The concept of a "system seller" is difficult to define clearly, but we all have some general idea of what it means. If I might make an attempt: a "system seller" is a game or franchise that moves millions of units and is considered one of the most powerful reasons for why people buy a particular platform.

In this sense, MGS most certainly fits the definition.

Sales of Metal Gear Solid (PS) as of 2002 were at 6.6 million worldwide.

Sales of Metal Gear Solid 2: The Sons of Liberty (PS2) as of 2006 were at over 7 million worldwide.

Sales of Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (PS2) as of 2007 were at 3.7 million worldwide (not including Subsistence).

On the Playstation, Metal Gear Solid sales followed only Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy, Tomb Raider, and Crash Bandicoot, all of which are considered system sellers for the Playstation. Out of thousands of Playstation titles, MGS was the seventh best selling game on the platform.

On the Playstation 2, Metal Gear Solid 2 sales followed only Grand Theft and Gran Turismo, both of which are considered major system sellers. It outsold such system moving franchises as Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, and Dragon Quest. Out of thousands of Playstation 2 titles, Metal Gear Solid 2 was the sixth best selling game on the platform.

Metal Gear Solid 3, the latest and least popular of the MGS games, followed close behind MGS2 in ninth place out of all Playstation 2 games. It still beat popular games like Dragon Quest VIII, Devil May Cry, and Kingdom Hearts II.

No, MGS is not mainstream, but the numbers show that it is beyond question a system seller for Playstation platforms.

Argument #2: MGS sales are only a fraction of Playstation and PS2's huge userbase.

True. But again, this fact does not mean the franchise is not a system seller.

Two things to consider. First, there weren't 130 million PS2 owners when MGS2 launched in November 2001. The Playstation 2 was barely a year old. The fact of the matter is that MGS2 was a tremendous help to get the Playstation 2's momentum going and establish a strong install base.

Second, if MGS2 is only a fraction of the PS2's userbase, so is Grand Theft Auto. And Gran Turismo.

But would anyone venture to suggest that these two franchises are not system sellers? The bare-bones truth is that when evaluating whether a game is a system seller on the Playstation and PS2 platforms, the ratio of game sales to install base is meaningless, because the install bases of those two platforms are gigantic, spread across a huge demographic, and thus diminish any franchise's sales to a fraction of their total.

So just because every franchise on PS and PS2 is a fraction of the install base, the PS and PS2 have no system sellers? That's obviously nonsensical. With install bases that huge, there must have been a healthy amount of system sellers for both PS and PS2.

MGS is one of them because like all the other franchises indubitably considered "system sellers" on Playstation platforms, it moves millions of units per iteration and provides a powerful incentive for people to purchase the platform.

The third argumentative approach is to concede that MGS is a system-selling franchise, but focus on the relatively low sales of MGS3 compared to MGS and MGS2, and hence assert that the series is dropping off the map.

This, I agree, is a possibility, but a highly unlikely one. More likely than not, MGS4 will be the Playstation 3's first big system seller, and I'll explain why.

The argument that MGS3 sold less than MGS2, and therefore MGS4 will sell less than MGS3, assumes a linear slope of decline in sales for the series. This of course, is an entirely unsubstantiated assumption. For example, Gran Turismo (Playstation) sold 10.5 million, GT2 (PS) sold 8.5 million, GT3 (PS2) sold 11 million, and GT4 (PS2) sold 8.79 million. As you can see, sales trends for GT games have been anything but linear, yet no one would suggest that GT is not a system seller, or that GT5 will sell less than GT4 because GT4 sold less than GT3.

Like the Gran Turismo series, MGS games have traditionally been a showcase for Playstation platforms.At trade shows like E3 and TGS, crowds would jam the convention floor with their mouths agape at the technical and aesthetic achievement of the debut MGS trailer.

Given that MGS3 was a late game on the Playstation 2, its debut had nowhere close the impact as MGS or MGS2. Its controls were also more complex than ever, creating a higher than usual learning curve and thus limiting itself to a narrower audience.

Unlike MGS3, MGS4 was a return to form for the series, as its debut at TGS in November 2005 literally brought the industry to a halt (those of you on the forums then will remember).

It had the same impact as MGS and MGS2 in terms of generating that instantaneous and universal reaction of awe at the first time Snake's profile was shown. And Kojima Productions has worked tirelessly to streamline the controls for a broader audience, as evidenced by the ample gameplay footage available.

MGS4's hype continues to this day, and the level of anticipation for this title far exceeds anything prior to MGS3. At Tokyo Game Show this year, Gamespot reported that even with a record 48 kiosks, attendees still waited up to 3 and a half hours to play the demo, and packed the show floor to see the new trailer.

Seasoned industry analyst Michael Pachter even suggests that Sony may adjust its pricing next year to coincide with the launch of "blockbuster games Grand Theft Auto IV and PS3 exclusive Metal Gear Solid 4." Source

Whether Sony will take such action is irrelevant to the purposes of this thread. The purpose is to argue that MGS is a system selling franchise and that MGS4 has tremendous potential to duplicate the success of MGS and MGS2. Analysts support the point by reiterating it and basing their projections on it.

People might say that MGS4 will sell less than MGS3, and that the series is dropping off the map. If I were to bet, I'd say that the MGS series will follow a similar pattern to the GT series. As the technical showcase for the Playstation 3 and the debut MGS title on that console, MGS4 will more likely than not move millions of Playstation 3's and continue its reputation as a system selling franchise for Playstation platforms.

Addendum: A certain poster has challenged me on the point that I did not show a sales spike immediately after the launch of an MGS game, and thus I have not demonstrated that MGS is a system seller. This individual claims that MGS games may have sold in a slow trickle, and thus cannot be said to have pushed sales of the PS2 console.

Given that MGS and MGS2 (the system sellers of the franchise) launched so long ago, it is difficult to obtain data on sales trends. Nevertheless, here is even more evidence to bolster my position, from an article published by gamespot the month after MGS2 launched:

Sony releases more Playstation 2 sales figures

The Playstation 2 is doing quite well despite two new competitors on the market.

Sony Computer Entertainment America has announced that it has sold 1.5 million units of the Playstation 2 since the week of Thanksgiving helping to establish an installed user base of 6.5 million units in the US. Sony also claims that according to TRSTS reports from the NPD Group, Playstation and Playstation 2 software sales have accounted for more than two-thirds of the video game software market during the month of November. Sales from the Playstation family of products, including hardware, software, and peripherals, have generated more than $700 million in revenue during the same time period.

Konami's Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty was the best-selling console game in November, followed by Grand Theft Auto III, Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3, Harry Potter: The Sorcerer's Stone, Madden NFL 2002, and WWF Smackdown! Just Bring It. In all, the Playstation family of products accounted for five of the top 10 best-selling console games in November and more than 60 percent of that in total revenue.

source

As you can see, Metal Gear Solid 2 was outselling Grand Theft Auto III on its debut, though GTA III (an undisputed system seller) had launched less than a month earlier. As the leading title in December 2001, there is no doubt MGS2 helped establish the PS2 as the dominant system in that month and in the broader generation.

MGS2 sold in a slow trickle? The facts say otherwise.

" the ratio of game sales to install base is meaningless "

I 100% agree with this statement. I am not sure why people really need to argue against this. A huge portion of the ps2's userbase were obviously uber casuals like girls , young kids , and gamers who couldn't get into that type of game. They chose to play one of the other 500+ good games on the system that fit their tastes at the time. That is exactly the reason why it sold 100 million. If a game sells well , it sells well ....... that is all there is to it.

We will just have to wait and see how it does , I think it will get to 3 million at least ...... and that is my definition of a system seller on any system because they will be pretty rare this generation.

" the ratio of game sales to install base is meaningless "

I 100% agree with this statement. I am not sure why people really need to argue against this. A huge portion of the ps2's userbase were obviously uber casuals like girls , young kids , and gamers whocouldn't get intothat type of game. They chose to play one of the other 500+ good games on the system that fit their tastes at the time. That is exactly the reason why it sold 100 million. If your game sells well , it sells well ....... that is all there is to it.

We will just have to waitand see how it does , I think it will get to 3 million at least ...... and that is my definition of a system seller on any system because they will be pretty rare this generation.

Nike_Air

I'm sorry but saying that is like saying "the point of soccer isn't getting the ball in the back of the net." The software attachment rate means EVERYTHING to the publishers when it comes to marketing strategy, investment on developement and thus, quality of the game.

Reaserch into the percentage of install base that will potentially purchase the dev's title is fundamental. The number that they end up with is directly proportional to the amount they invest into the game and thus, the production values and quality of it.

This is a profit game, people. Nobody is dumping millions of dollars into developement and publishing of games for the joy of it. It is to make money. Install base = available profit opportunity.

Don't be naive.

I'll admit MGS3 was a chore to play at times but the ending was worth it.

I'll also add that the Acid series is disgustingly under rated and mislabeled as a mere "card game" by anyone who has never played it. And Portabel Ops was worth the PSP purchase, no matter what else comes out afterwards.

MGS will always be a reason for me to buy a PS product.

" the ratio of game sales to install base is meaningless "

I 100% agree with this statement. I am not sure why people really need to argue against this. A huge portion of the ps2's userbase were obviously uber casuals like girls , young kids , and gamers who couldn't get into that type of game. They chose to play one of the other 500+ good games on the system that fit their tastes at the time. That is exactly the reason why it sold 100 million. If a game sells well , it sells well ....... that is all there is to it.

We will just have to wait and see how it does , I think it will get to 3 million at least ...... and that is my definition of a system seller on any system because they will be pretty rare this generation.

Nike_Air

The PS userbase is wide, diverse, and loaded with a variety of gamers. When you have such a wide range you are going to spread out your game sales among a very diverse library of games. Theirs a reason 130 million PS2 owners dont all need to buy MGS3, because its not the only great game. The reason Halo sold huge was cause that was the best XBOX game, little else was really worth playing. Same thing with Nintendo and the first party titles. Its not the consoles fault that its not spear headed by one stand alone title. One million sold is huge for any game, trying to downplay that is downright silly.

[QUOTE="Nike_Air"]

" the ratio of game sales to install base is meaningless "

I 100% agree with this statement. I am not sure why people really need to argue against this. A huge portion of the ps2's userbase were obviously uber casuals like girls , young kids , and gamers whocouldn't get intothat type of game. They chose to play one of the other 500+ good games on the system that fit their tastes at the time. That is exactly the reason why it sold 100 million. If your game sells well , it sells well ....... that is all there is to it.

We will just have to waitand see how it does , I think it will get to 3 million at least ...... and that is my definition of a system seller on any system because they will be pretty rare this generation.

slduncanlaw

I'm sorry but saying that is like saying "the point of soccer isn't getting the ball in the back of the net." The software attachment rate means EVERYTHING to the publishers when it comes to marketing strategy, investment on developement and thus, quality of the game.

Reaserch into the percentage of install base that will potentially purchase the dev's title is fundamental. The number that they end up with is directly proportional to the amount they invest into the game and thus, the production values and quality of it.

This is a profit game, people. Nobody is dumping millions of dollars into developement and publishing of games for the joy of it. It is to make money. Install base = available profit opportunity.

Don't be naive.

I never understood the concept of a "system seller". No one can judge if people bought a PS3 for MGS or for Resistance, or anything else for that matter.

A good game is a good game, regardless.All this bickering about what is and what isn't a "system seller" seems absolutely ridiculous to me, and I don't think that I am alone in this. Its a silly concept, and its only real use here seems to be for fanboys to try and skirt the real issues, as in:

"Well the PS3 still has MGS4 to come out!"

"Yeah, but MGS is not a system seller!!"

It ignores the issue and lets the other poster go around the whole point completely by using some abstract term that may or may not be accurate so that they don't have to face the possibility of the "enemy" getting a great game, which is really what it boils down to. Minimize the perceived impact of your competitions big games so that you can further justify why "your" system is the superior one.

Its sad, really.

MGS is not a game that caters to the mainstream audience. Very few gamers actually finish games, and a stealth/cinematic/plot driven game is certainly not what the everyman is into. Its difficult to tell for certain, but MGS to me appears to be a series adored by fans, whereas something like WiiSports, or even Halo, is more universal.

Its ability to sell the hardcore audience is almost moot, as these people usually have all the consoles.

If I didn't have to be on the bus in 20 minutes, I'd read it all, from what I read its great... but it really isn't a system seller... at least to the mainstream audience. It sells systems to fans of the series... pretty much exclusively.foxhound_fox

That's similar to what you said about Bioshock, it sells to the fans because SS is a PC game when in fact the Xbox 360 version is outselling the PC version, every single proper Metal Gear Solid game is in the top ten highest selling games of each system, MGS1, MGS2, MGS3.

[QUOTE="slduncanlaw"][QUOTE="Nike_Air"]

" the ratio of game sales to install base is meaningless "

I 100% agree with this statement. I am not sure why people really need to argue against this. A huge portion of the ps2's userbase were obviously uber casuals like girls , young kids , and gamers whocouldn't get intothat type of game. They chose to play one of the other 500+ good games on the system that fit their tastes at the time. That is exactly the reason why it sold 100 million. If your game sells well , it sells well ....... that is all there is to it.

We will just have to waitand see how it does , I think it will get to 3 million at least ...... and that is my definition of a system seller on any system because they will be pretty rare this generation.

Nike_Air

I'm sorry but saying that is like saying "the point of soccer isn't getting the ball in the back of the net." The software attachment rate means EVERYTHING to the publishers when it comes to marketing strategy, investment on developement and thus, quality of the game.

Reaserch into the percentage of install base that will potentially purchase the dev's title is fundamental. The number that they end up with is directly proportional to the amount they invest into the game and thus, the production values and quality of it.

This is a profit game, people. Nobody is dumping millions of dollars into developement and publishing of games for the joy of it. It is to make money. Install base = available profit opportunity.

Don't be naive.

I think you mean "run with it like I stole it." My point may have strayed from the topic, but it was just to point out that the install base number is very important, regardless of spectrum of gamers. This is directly related to the TC's argument that MSG is a system seller.

Now, I don't have an argument whether it is or isn't. TC's research seems accurate. Do I think it will? My guess is, with respect to the popularity it receives on the boards of this forum, it will sell some systems. But that is in conjunction with the fact that PS3 is a hardcore gamer's console right now, just because of it's price point. Because of this, I would be lead to believe the majority of its installed userbase would purchase MSG4, or be inticed to purchase a PS3 to play MSG4 which seems to me to be more of a hard core audience game.

BTW, "Kid"? My wife would agree with you at times. ;)

I have never played a MG game and you have nearly convinced me to. I hope it is an awesome game. People don't get that we need competition and personally I like the direction that Sony and MS are going more than nintendo (even though I own a Wii, I guess I gave into the hype)d3thm0nkey

An advice from a fan; You have to play previous mgs games to understand this one because 95% of the events are related to mgs1 and 2.

MGS is not a game that caters to the mainstream audience. Very few gamers actually finish games, and a stealth/cinematic/plot driven game is certainly not what the everyman is into. Its difficult to tell for certain, but MGS to me appears to be a series adored by fans, whereas something like WiiSports, or even Halo, is more universal.

Its ability to sell the hardcore audience is almost moot, as these people usually have all the consoles.

KirbyFan10101

This is true, there are many new gamers in the market that would not even touch MGS1 because of the graphics, orhave never heard of Twin Snakes.

The series needs to literally be played through from first game(Not including preMGS1)to the most recent game to be fully enjoyed. If one were to play a game mid way through the series with out playing the other,he or she would feel like confused or that something is missing.

I believe MGS4 will be a system seller in Japan if anything, I'm hoping the sales will exceed that of MGS3 but I really doubt it will reach MGS2 status.

I never understood the concept of a "system seller". No one can judge if people bought a PS3 for MGS or for Resistance, or anything else for that matter.

SpruceCaboose

System sellers do exist, but you have to look further than MGS or Resistance. Halo has it's own special edition of the 360, and a sales spike was already starting last month.

Mods: Sticky this for a month

The assumption you make is that MGS sells consoles... there is no doubt it sells... but does it sell the consoles or do the consoles sell themselves... or do other games sell the consoles, and MGS only sells it's self?

I don't know that we can assume that MGS sales translate into Console sales.

If you have some sort of way to prove that MGS is what sells consoles I would love to see it... I'd like to know how you would hold the sales of the console, and sales of the console due to other games constant...

Gonna have to disagree, Mr. Squash. :)

Based on MGS2, I don't think it's a system seller. Just my personal experience. It didn't make anyone I know buy a PS2. The PS2 didn't receive a noticable sales jump thanks to MGS2, as I recall. Sales figures may also be deceptive, as they are the total sales over time.

The way to prove MGS is a system-selling franchise devinitively:

I think the only way to do that is to create a months/time graph that charted the sales growth for each of the MGS games with an overlaping graph of PS2 sales/time...and such a graph would need to show noticable boosts of console and game sales at the time the game launched...and must cite other significant game releases at that time (like if Devil May Cry came out the same month).

Something that looks like this:

...would prove your point more than any words can.

Otherwise, the numbers are subject to interpretation (someone could fairly and logically say that the 80% of the MGS2 sales came the year AFTER it launched, thus proving it did not sell systems...and there would be no way to say they're wrong without detailed data) and the temporal nature of your argument betrays you. In the end, data that detailed is probably not available to you or anyone else...so here is no way to make your point "definitive". Sorry.

I will say this in conclusion: MGS4 does have the potential to be a system seller moreso than its predecessors if it can deliver in spades...but the timing of its launch (spring '08, nowhere near any holidays) may limit its impact from that perspective. And again, no MGS game has sold a PS2 to any of my friends.

Frankly, I think the PS2's system sellers were Madden, Final Fantasy X, GTA and Gran Turismo...as well as an overwhelming amount of hype from its sensational marketing team back in 2001, a year's head-start on its competitors, and a ridiculously strong brand name. Perhaps the latter were more important than the former.

I pickd up subsistance today :)

Frankly, I think the PS2's system sellers were Madden, GTA and Gran Turismo...as well as an overwhelming amount of hype from its sensational marketing team back in 2001, a year's head-start on its competitors, and a ridiculously strong brand name. Perhaps the latter were more important than the former.

Dreams-Visions

Eh, I have a PS3 and 360. I'm covered.

Eh, I have a PS3 and 360. I'm covered.

SemiMaster

yeah, isn't it nice that you don't have to worry about all this nonsense.

[QUOTE="Dreams-Visions"]

Frankly, I think the PS2's system sellers were Madden, GTA and Gran Turismo...as well as an overwhelming amount of hype from its sensational marketing team back in 2001, a year's head-start on its competitors, and a ridiculously strong brand name. Perhaps the latter were more important than the former.

DireToad

If I still didn't have a PS2 when FFX launched....I would have bought one then. It was most definitely a system seller. I just forgot about it temporarially. Probably because it was so disappointing to me, personally.

[QUOTE="DireToad"][QUOTE="Dreams-Visions"]

Frankly, I think the PS2's system sellers were Madden, GTA and Gran Turismo...as well as an overwhelming amount of hype from its sensational marketing team back in 2001, a year's head-start on its competitors, and a ridiculously strong brand name. Perhaps the latter were more important than the former.

Dreams-Visions

If I still didn't have a PS2 when FFX launched....I would have bought one then. It was most definitely a system seller. I just forgot about it temporarially. Probably because it was so disappointing to me, personally.

well I comend the effort it fails as you do not mention the concept of collateral sales. GT and MGS are collateral franchises... there does not exist a significant population that would be a $600 console for these games, however they would most definately buy the games If they owned the system. The primary system sellers, Final Fantasy, Madden, Halo, guitar hero, Wii Sports, Zelda, Mario.

A race game is just a race game... you drive around in a circle and look at cars, its not like most members in here even track fast sports cars where they could actually benefit or realize how close to reality the games are to receive any real life benefit from their simulations. A system seller must have mass appeal. Owning PS brands for over 10 years I never played MGS but for 40 minutes or so and hated it... on the other hand anything from atlus for me is all kinds of win, but that doesnt mean its a system seller because it doesnt have mass appeal.

Sorry no. Metal Gear is not a system seller like Gran Turismo, Grand Theft Auto, Madden, Halo etc.

Sorry no. Metal Gear is not a system seller like Gran Turismo, Grand Theft Auto, Madden, Halo etc.

ReverseCycology

....and your reasoning?

Gonna have to disagree, Mr. Squash. :)

Based on MGS2, I don't think it's a system seller. Just my personal experience. It didn't make anyone I know buy a PS2. The PS2 didn't receive a noticable sales jump thanks to MGS2, as I recall. Sales figures may also be deceptive, as they are the total sales over time.

The way to prove MGS is a system-selling franchise devinitively:

I think the only way to do that is to create a months/time graph that charted the sales growth for each of the MGS games with an overlaping graph of PS2 sales/time...and such a graph would need to show noticable boosts of console and game sales at the time the game launched...and must cite other significant game releases at that time (like if Devil May Cry came out the same month).

Something that looks like this:

...would prove your point more than any words can.

Otherwise, the numbers are subject to interpretation (someone could fairly and logically say that the 80% of the MGS2 sales came the year AFTER it launched, thus proving it did not sell systems...and there would be no way to say they're wrong without detailed data) and the temporal nature of your argument betrays you. In the end, data that detailed is probably not available to you or anyone else...so here is no way to make your point "definitive". Sorry.

I will say this in conclusion: MGS4 does have the potential to be a system seller moreso than its predecessors if it can deliver in spades...but the timing of its launch (spring '08, nowhere near any holidays) may limit its impact from that perspective. And again, no MGS game has sold a PS2 to any of my friends.

Frankly, I think the PS2's system sellers were Madden, Final Fantasy X, GTA and Gran Turismo...as well as an overwhelming amount of hype from its sensational marketing team back in 2001, a year's head-start on its competitors, and a ridiculously strong brand name. Perhaps the latter were more important than the former.

Dreams-Visions

Again, if you'd read my post you'd notice that MGS2 sold at least as much as Final Fantasy X, which you deem a system seller.

Yet you call FFX a system seller without providing anything like the graph you posted. Why? Because it obviously is a system seller, moving millions of units of software and hardware.

So why is 8 million units of FFX considered "system seller" status, yet 7 million units of MGS2 considered "not a system seller"? I fail to see the reasoning behind the distinction.

And the "my friends didn't buy a PS2 for MGS2" argument is so obviously unsound I won't address it.

Metal Gear Solid is no longer a system seller. That ended with the second game. Now its just another dying series that reached its apex a long time ago. It will probably go platinum again but its never going to sell 6 or 7 million copies. Sorry.

Sorry no. Metal Gear is not a system seller like Gran Turismo, Grand Theft Auto, Madden, Halo etc.

ReverseCycology

it is kind of funny seeing how mgs is better than all those games (in my opinion) and mgs4 looks to be the best 1

Metal Gear Solid is no longer a system seller. That ended with the second game. Now its just another dying series that reached its apex a long time ago. It will probably go platinum again but its never going to sell 6 or 7 million copies. Sorry.

JiveT

you heard it here first folks. I know JiveT in real life. He is a proffesional video game analyst. He knows what he is talking about.