The Definitive Rebuttal: 'Metal Gear Solid is not a system seller'

GT3 vs GT4 sales are very misleading in the first place. I'm not sure if GT4 was bundled, but I know GT3 was bundled with the PS2 because I bought a GT3 PS2 bundle.

Regardless, you would think a "system seller" (MGS) wouldn't lose some of it's fanbase as a console's (PS2) userbase expand. But that's exactly what has happened.LosDaddie

You make a good point. My memory fades me, but if indeed GT3 was bundled, then the analogy would be inaccurate. In any case, there are other examples I could raise of franchises rising and falling. Final Fantasy is an example, Mario is another, the Legend of Zelda is still another.

Yet all three of these are still considered system sellers, and some of their iterations, like Wind Waker, have sold even less than MGS3.

Does that mean they'll never make a comeback this generation, or that they're not system sellers anymore?

It all depends on when MGS4 reaches that 4mil mark. GEOW hit 4mil in less than 1yr. If MGS4 hits 4mil in 2009, then will it be considered a "system seller"?Right now the best selling PS3 game is RFoM, but it is currently bundled with PS3s in Europe.

That's why just quoting sales figures is misleading, especially since some games get a boost once a game goes GreatestHits/Platinum ($20). That's why your comparison would seem sound to the average SW poster, but not me.:)

A better way to gauge this would be sales during the first year of a game's release.

LosDaddie

Perhaps, but remember that even the lower-income, late-adopter consumers have driving reasons for why they purchase one console or another.

True system sellers continue to expand over long periods of time, as console and software prices drop.

[QUOTE="Koalakommander"][QUOTE="LosDaddie"][QUOTE="Solid-CELL"]

we dont even have to look at past sales to prove that MGS4 might sell 6 million +.

LosDaddie

MGS4 might sell 6million by the time PS4 is ready to come out.

I think you are underestimating the other franchises that will push millions of PS3s...

Some people just can't live without their FFs or GTs...

Underestimating? :lol:

Heck no! JUst looking at the facts.

Per the TC, MGS3 hasn't even sold 4mil copies on the PS2's 120+mil userbase.

...and Final Fantasy XII hasn't even sold 5 million on the PS2's 120+ mil userbase.

What a failure of a franchise, right?

I don't think attach ratio is the determining factor.Nike_Air

Did I say attach ratio was"the" determining factor? Nope.

I saidattach ratio was "a" great determining factor. Read carefully next time. ;)

I think the game's overall sales are the determining factor regardless of userbase. If it sells a lot , it is selling systems to people in theory.Nike_Air

At this point in the PS3's life, a "system seller" ismust have a high attach ratio in order to "sell a lot".And there is no denying that.:)

Just because Resistance is at 33% attath ratio or whatver at the moment doesn't make it a system seller. It has to reach more of the mass and get more total sales.It has a way to go yet and it may never get there. Nike_Air

RFoM's sales are misleading anyways. The game is bundled with the PS3 in Europe (and I think AUS too). Same could now be said for Motorstorm as well.

This wins thread of the year.

In fact, this should be stickied.

Very good read fuzzy.

You make a good point. My memory fades me, but if indeed GT3 was bundled, then the analogy would be inaccurate. fuzzysquash

Then your analogy is indeed flawed and you should stop using it.

In any case, there are other examples I could raise of franchises rising and falling. Final Fantasy is an example, Mario is another, the Legend of Zelda is still another. Yet all three of these are still considered system sellers, and some of their iterations, like Wind Waker, have sold even less than MGS3.fuzzysquash

Quit talkin about it and go find the data. Again, bring up attach ratio when comparing WW to MGS3. Also make sure to note that MGS3 sold barely over half of what MGS2.

True system sellers continue to expand over long periods of time, as console and software prices drop.

fuzzysquash

While I agree, MGS3 sold barely more than half of what MGS2 sold. The GT series didn't see that kind of drop off.

"Then your analogy is indeed flawed and you should stop using it."

Was GT bundled with PS1? Because GT2 also dropped off. And how long was GT3 bundled with PS2?

"Quit talkin about it and go find the data. Again, bring up attach ratio when comparing WW to MGS3. Also make sure to note that MGS3 sold barely over half of what MGS2."

I did find the data. Why would I make those claims without looking up the data?

Look it up yourself. The facts corroborate my assertions.

link

link

As for attach rate, you ignored my post about FFXII only selling 5 million out of 120+ mil PS2 owners. A pitiful attach rate. Yet why is Final Fantasy still considered a system seller?

"While I agree, MGS3 sold barely more than half of what MGS2 sold. The GT series didn't see that kind of drop off."

Super Mario Sunshine sold half of Super Mario 64.

So, what, Mario isn't a system seller anymore?

Well the original TC post will recieve no arguments from me, There is one monkey wrench though in the proverbial gear, The PS3's price!

Yea, I hate to beat a dead horse but the PS3 price will be a killer. If by the time MGS 4 release, the PS3 drops to $400, then it might have a chance. but if not, then even MGS 4 might have a hard time pulling the PS3 out of the crapper! MGS is a system selling title, but IMO, it anin't no Halo or SSB! In fact, IMO, even SSBB or Halo 3 (Let's just pretend those games are on the PS platform here) will have a hard time pulling a $500 system out of the dumbs. Casuals and the mainstream worries about the Price FIRST AND FOREMOST! If the console is anything more than $400 (and $400 is pushing it as it is!), then you better have a DAMN good reason for them to plunk down that much cash just for ONE game! Casuals MIGHT do it at $400 for Halo 3 and GTA4. but $500 for MGS4, that to me is pretty iffy! And that is the whole crux of the entire PS3 problem. The price might just be too expensive for ANY game to left it out of the dumper hole unless it drops the price and I mean FAST!

Then your analogy is indeed flawed and you should stop using it.

LosDaddie

actually, having thought about it some more, I don't think the fact that GT3 was bundled hurts my argument.

The fact that a game is bundled doesn't mean it's automatically a system seller. Motorstorm is now bundled with the PS3 in the States, and Heavenly Sword is bundled with the PS3 in Europe. Yet neither of them are considered system sellers.

Furthermore, if I recall correctly, Halo was also bundled with the Xbox. In that case, it most certainly was a system seller. But if we can talk about a bundled game like Halo as a system seller, then we can do the same with GT.

Well the original TC post will recieve no arguments from me, There is one monkey wrench though in the proverbial gear, The PS3's price!

Yea, I hate to beat a dead horse but the PS3 price will be a killer. If by the time MGS 4 release, the PS3 drops to $400, then it might have a chance. but if not, then even MGS 4 might have a hard time pulling the PS3 out of the crapper! MGS is a system selling title, but IMO, it anin't no Halo or SSB! In fact, IMO, even SSBB or Halo 3 (Let's just pretend those games are on the PS platform here) will have a hard time pulling a $500 system out of the dumbs. Casuals and the mainstream worries about the Price FIRST AND FOREMOST! If the console is anything more than $400 (and $400 is pushing it as it is!), then you better have a DAMN good reason for them to plunk down that much cash just for ONE game! Casuals MIGHT do it at $400 for Halo 3 and GTA4. but $500 for MGS4, that to me is pretty iffy! And that is the whole crux of the entire PS3 problem. The price might just be too expensive for ANY game to left it out of the dumper hole unless it drops the price and I mean FAST!

StryderK

I would agree. Price and software need to work hand-in-hand. But MGS4 will almost certainly hold up well on its part.

[QUOTE="StryderK"]

Well the original TC post will recieve no arguments from me, There is one monkey wrench though in the proverbial gear, The PS3's price!

Yea, I hate to beat a dead horse but the PS3 price will be a killer. If by the time MGS 4 release, the PS3 drops to $400, then it might have a chance. but if not, then even MGS 4 might have a hard time pulling the PS3 out of the crapper! MGS is a system selling title, but IMO, it anin't no Halo or SSB! In fact, IMO, even SSBB or Halo 3 (Let's just pretend those games are on the PS platform here) will have a hard time pulling a $500 system out of the dumbs. Casuals and the mainstream worries about the Price FIRST AND FOREMOST! If the console is anything more than $400 (and $400 is pushing it as it is!), then you better have a DAMN good reason for them to plunk down that much cash just for ONE game! Casuals MIGHT do it at $400 for Halo 3 and GTA4. but $500 for MGS4, that to me is pretty iffy! And that is the whole crux of the entire PS3 problem. The price might just be too expensive for ANY game to left it out of the dumper hole unless it drops the price and I mean FAST!

fuzzysquash

I would agree. Price and software need to work hand-in-hand. But MGS4 will almost certainly hold up well on its part.

No Doubt MGS4 will do it too! The big problem is whether the PS3 will be at $400 or there is a $400 version out by the time of its release (and there is a good chance it won't be since Sony is taking it on the chin still with the Loses generated from the PS3). IMO, MGS4 will do well later in the PS3 life, especially after a few price drops. But don't expect it to do well initially, especially if the PS3 is still at $500. The mainstream will NOT accept the game on a console THAT expensive! The game will probably do well for a week or two, then drops off the face of the earth but will rise up and down in sequence with different price drops. It will still push quite a bit of PS3 and sell 4-6 million copies before the PS3 jig is up but IMO, won't do much to stave off the X360 or especially, the Wii onslaught.

Excellent thread, I had to bring it back to life.

You're one the most reasonable and smartest posters on here.

One of the most often repeated SW myths is that MGS might be a good game, but it's not a system seller.

Proponents often proceed by way of three arguments, which I'll refute individually.

Argument #1: MGS is not mainstream.

No, it's not, but that doesn't mean it isn't a system seller. The concept of a "system seller" is difficult to define clearly, but we all have some general idea of what it means. If I might make an attempt: a "system seller" is a game or franchise that moves millions of units and is considered one of the most powerful reasons for why people buy a particular platform.

In this sense, MGS most certainly fits the definition.

Sales of Metal Gear Solid (PS) as of 2002 were at 6.6 million worldwide.

Sales of Metal Gear Solid 2: The Sons of Liberty (PS2) as of 2006 were at over 7 million worldwide.

Sales of Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (PS2) as of 2007 were at 3.7 million worldwide (not including Subsistence).

On the Playstation, Metal Gear Solid sales followed only Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy, Tomb Raider, and Crash Bandicoot, all of which are considered system sellers for the Playstation. Out of thousands of Playstation titles, MGS was the seventh best selling game on the platform.

On the Playstation 2, Metal Gear Solid 2 sales followed only Grand Theft and Gran Turismo, both of which are considered major system sellers. It outsold such system moving franchises as Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, and Dragon Quest. Out of thousands of Playstation 2 titles, Metal Gear Solid 2 was the sixth best selling game on the platform.

Metal Gear Solid 3, the latest and least popular of the MGS games, followed close behind MGS2 in ninth place out of all Playstation 2 games. It still beat popular games like Dragon Quest VIII, Devil May Cry, and Kingdom Hearts II.

No, MGS is not mainstream, but the numbers show that it is beyond question a system seller for Playstation platforms.

Argument #2: MGS sales are only a fraction of Playstation and PS2's huge userbase.

True. But again, this fact does not mean the franchise is not a system seller.

Two things to consider. First, there weren't 130 million PS2 owners when MGS2 launched in November 2001. The Playstation 2 was barely a year old. The fact of the matter is that MGS2 was a tremendous help to get the Playstation 2's momentum going and establish a strong install base.

Second, if MGS2 is only a fraction of the PS2's userbase, so is Grand Theft Auto. And Gran Turismo.

But would anyone venture to suggest that these two franchises are not system sellers? The bare-bones truth is that when evaluating whether a game is a system seller on the Playstation and PS2 platforms, the ratio of game sales to install base is meaningless, because the install bases of those two platforms are gigantic, spread across a huge demographic, and thus diminish any franchise's sales to a fraction of their total.

So just because every franchise on PS and PS2 is a fraction of the install base, the PS and PS2 have no system sellers? That's obviously nonsensical. With install bases that huge, there must have been a healthy amount of system sellers for both PS and PS2.

MGS is one of them because like all the other franchises indubitably considered "system sellers" on Playstation platforms, it moves millions of units per iteration and provides a powerful incentive for people to purchase the platform.

Argument 3: MGS is a system seller, but the series is on the decline

The third argumentative approach is to concede that MGS is a system-selling franchise, but focus on the relatively low sales of MGS3 compared to MGS and MGS2, and hence assert that the series is dropping off the map.

This, I agree, is a possibility, but a highly unlikely one. More likely than not, MGS4 will be the Playstation 3's first big system seller, and I'll explain why.

The argument that MGS3 sold less than MGS2, and therefore MGS4 will sell less than MGS3, assumes a linear slope of decline in sales for the series. This of course, is an entirely unsubstantiated assumption. For example, Gran Turismo (Playstation) sold 10.5 million, GT2 (PS) sold 8.5 million, GT3 (PS2) sold 11 million, and GT4 (PS2) sold 8.79 million. As you can see, sales trends for GT games have been anything but linear, yet no one would suggest that GT is not a system seller, or that GT5 will sell less than GT4 because GT4 sold less than GT3.

Like the Gran Turismo series, MGS games have traditionally been a showcase for Playstation platforms.At trade shows like E3 and TGS, crowds would jam the convention floor with their mouths agape at the technical and aesthetic achievement of the debut MGS trailer.

Given that MGS3 was a late game on the Playstation 2, its debut had nowhere close the impact as MGS or MGS2. Its controls were also more complex than ever, creating a higher than usual learning curve and thus limiting itself to a narrower audience.

Unlike MGS3, MGS4 was a return to form for the series, as its debut at TGS in November 2005 literally brought the industry to a halt (those of you on the forums then will remember).

It had the same impact as MGS and MGS2 in terms of generating that instantaneous and universal reaction of awe at the first time Snake's profile was shown. And Kojima Productions has worked tirelessly to streamline the controls for a broader audience, as evidenced by the ample gameplay footage available.

MGS4's hype continues to this day, and the level of anticipation for this title far exceeds anything prior to MGS3. At Tokyo Game Show this year, Gamespot reported that even with a record 48 kiosks, attendees still waited up to 3 and a half hours to play the demo, and packed the show floor to see the new trailer.

Seasoned industry analyst Michael Pachter even suggests that Sony may adjust its pricing next year to coincide with the launch of "blockbuster games Grand Theft Auto IV and PS3 exclusive Metal Gear Solid 4." Source

Whether Sony will take such action is irrelevant to the purposes of this thread. The purpose is to argue that MGS is a system selling franchise and that MGS4 has tremendous potential to duplicate the success of MGS and MGS2. Analysts support the point by reiterating it and basing their projections on it.

People might say that MGS4 will sell less than MGS3, and that the series is dropping off the map. If I were to bet, I'd say that the MGS series will follow a similar pattern to the GT series. As the technical showcase for the Playstation 3 and the debut MGS title on that console, MGS4 will more likely than not move millions of Playstation 3's and continue its reputation as a system selling franchise for Playstation platforms.

Addendum: A certain poster has challenged me on the point that I did not show a sales spike immediately after the launch of an MGS game, and thus I have not demonstrated that MGS is a system seller. This individual claims that MGS games may have sold in a slow trickle, and thus cannot be said to have pushed sales of the PS2 console.

Given that MGS and MGS2 (the system sellers of the franchise) launched so long ago, it is difficult to obtain data on sales trends. Nevertheless, here is even more evidence to bolster my position, from an article published by gamespot the month after MGS2 launched:

Sony releases more Playstation 2 sales figures

The Playstation 2 is doing quite well despite two new competitors on the market.

Sony Computer Entertainment America has announced that it has sold 1.5 million units of the Playstation 2 since the week of Thanksgiving helping to establish an installed user base of 6.5 million units in the US. Sony also claims that according to TRSTS reports from the NPD Group, Playstation and Playstation 2 software sales have accounted for more than two-thirds of the video game software market during the month of November. Sales from the Playstation family of products, including hardware, software, and peripherals, have generated more than $700 million in revenue during the same time period.

Konami's Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty was the best-selling console game in November, followed by Grand Theft Auto III, Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3, Harry Potter: The Sorcerer's Stone, Madden NFL 2002, and WWF Smackdown! Just Bring It. In all, the Playstation family of products accounted for five of the top 10 best-selling console games in November and more than 60 percent of that in total revenue.

source

As you can see, Metal Gear Solid 2 was outselling Grand Theft Auto III on its debut, though GTA III (an undisputed system seller) had launched less than a month earlier. As the leading title in December 2001, there is no doubt MGS2 helped establish the PS2 as the dominant system in that month and in the broader generation.

MGS2 sold in a slow trickle? The facts say otherwise.

fuzzysquash

All I can say- unlike everyone in system wars that was a well researched and well thought out argument. I love the MGS series and that is the reason I bought my PS3 in Japan on day one. You proved your point very well there. As for MGS4, I think it will sell very well because this time around the graphics are mind-blowing (mgs2 and 3 weren't the "BEST") which will attract more gamers since graphics mean a lot in this generation. Also, Kojima has implemented a lot of western gaming techniques (example-fps), which will also defintely attract more gamers. MGS4 is going for an international audience rather than just a japanese one. I think it will easily make its 1 million sales target on day one. BTW, we need more people like you in system wars, who support their console, but with evidence and proper logic.

[QUOTE="fuzzysquash"][QUOTE="StryderK"]

Well the original TC post will recieve no arguments from me, There is one monkey wrench though in the proverbial gear, The PS3's price!

Yea, I hate to beat a dead horse but the PS3 price will be a killer. If by the time MGS 4 release, the PS3 drops to $400, then it might have a chance. but if not, then even MGS 4 might have a hard time pulling the PS3 out of the crapper! MGS is a system selling title, but IMO, it anin't no Halo or SSB! In fact, IMO, even SSBB or Halo 3 (Let's just pretend those games are on the PS platform here) will have a hard time pulling a $500 system out of the dumbs. Casuals and the mainstream worries about the Price FIRST AND FOREMOST! If the console is anything more than $400 (and $400 is pushing it as it is!), then you better have a DAMN good reason for them to plunk down that much cash just for ONE game! Casuals MIGHT do it at $400 for Halo 3 and GTA4. but $500 for MGS4, that to me is pretty iffy! And that is the whole crux of the entire PS3 problem. The price might just be too expensive for ANY game to left it out of the dumper hole unless it drops the price and I mean FAST!

StryderK

I would agree. Price and software need to work hand-in-hand. But MGS4 will almost certainly hold up well on its part.

No Doubt MGS4 will do it too! The big problem is whether the PS3 will be at $400 or there is a $400 version out by the time of its release (and there is a good chance it won't be since Sony is taking it on the chin still with the Loses generated from the PS3). IMO, MGS4 will do well later in the PS3 life, especially after a few price drops. But don't expect it to do well initially, especially if the PS3 is still at $500. The mainstream will NOT accept the game on a console THAT expensive! The game will probably do well for a week or two, then drops off the face of the earth but will rise up and down in sequence with different price drops. It will still push quite a bit of PS3 and sell 4-6 million copies before the PS3 jig is up but IMO, won't do much to stave off the X360 or especially, the Wii onslaught.

lol I know its not your fault, but theere is a 400 dollar ps3 now and its selling real good.

Excellent thread, I had to bring it back to life.

You're one the most reasonable and smartest posters on here.

Liquid-GEAR

grazie, I appreciate that.