At least this analysis from Gamasutra seems to conclude.
I dunno, seemed good SW stuff so comment if you feel like it. :P
The Story.
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Just the last few paragraphs, for the full read:http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/30316/Analysis_Xbox_360_S_Model_Tracking_Ahead_of_PS3_Slim.php
None of the above estimation takes into account Microsoft's first ace in the hole: Halo: Reach. According to analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen and Company, sales of that title could reach 3.6 million units in September alone. Sales at that level could add $250 million to Microsoft's software revenue, and just from a single title. We also expect that hardware sales for September will easily exceed 400,000 units.
Microsoft's second ace is its ability to drop its hardware prices at the time of its own choosing. Provided its hardware sales remain strong through the end of the year – and we see no reason for them to slow down – it can easily afford a $50 price drop on all its systems in early 2011. We feel the Xbox 360 offers a superior value, and at $150 the Arcade model could do exceptionally well throughout next year.
Whether Kinect, the new motion control technology launching on the Xbox 360 in November 2010, will represent a significant factor in the system's sales remains unclear to us. (For the sake of completeness, we are also not clear on Sony's strategy for its Move system.)
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