I think this is mostly due to Sony picking the perfect release date in November. November 15th was the perfect play. Right in the middle of the month, forcing Microsoft to make a decision on whether they want to shoot for early Nov and undercut them, or be more prudent and release late Nov but essentially losing another checkbox to Sony.
I thought Nov 15th was brilliant when Sony announced it. If you're going to go first, plop yourself right in the middle..not "early" or "late" Nov, and force your competition to pick their poison.
I'm not rooting for Sony, but they have definitely made all the right decisions with this launch.
My best is on Xbox One releasing late November. I have no basis for this, but I just don't think they have the supply nor everthing together on the software end to meet an early Nov release, especially not the first week. If they release after PS4 that sucks for them...will probably cost them a bit more sales at launch.
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