Which RPG will win GOTY? Battle of the Titans!

@Jag85: Well I think FF16 is a hack n slash game.

Again, this is a big lie. Miyamoto has repeatedly stated that he does not consider Zelda to be RPG, in multiple interviews over decades. His position has always been consistent: Zelda is not RPG, and he dislikes RPG mechanics in general.

Your "turn-based" argument is also false. Action RPGs were a thing back then. The Japanese gaming media coined the term ARPG to refer to action RPGs like Ys, Mana, Hydlide, Dragon Slayer, Xanadu, etc. When Miyamoto came up with Zelda, he was inspired by an ARPG called Hydlide. He took that game's real-time open world formula and stripped away the RPG mechanics, making it an action-adventure instead. And Zelda turned out to be a far better game than Hydlide as a result. Miyamoto knew exactly what he meant when he said Zelda is not RPG.

D4 deserves to be on the list

TC is embarrasing himself not for listing games that are not RPGs on his poll, but making fallacious statements on why he thinks that The Legend of Zelda is an RPG instead of an action-adventure game.

Has no chance against Baldur's Gate III

And the Switch Zeldas do have an RPG feel.

@texasgoldrush:

Out of the RPGs released so far this year, FF16 is the clear favourite. You can't make assumptions about RPGs that haven't released yet. BG3's early access is being well-received, but so was FF16's demo. We won't know for sure until it releases.

BOTW and TOTK have some RPG elements here and there. But they are still predominantly action-adventure games. So TOTK will be awarded in the action-adventure category instead of the RPG category.

@Jag85: I enjoyed FF16, but I was more impressed with BG3's early access build than I was with the entirely of FF16.

So unless they drop the ball with Acts 2 and 3, I'd say it's safe to assume BG3 will be the better game.

I haven't played the rest, but Zelda doesn't deserve it. It's the laziest game I've played in recent memory. It's literally just BoTW but with an even shitter story.

Also you:

Finished ToTK. The ending is incredible

You were way more positive about the game when playing it. Did it take you 150 hours of fun to notice the game is crap? :P

FFXVI gets my vote

@Planeforger: People were saying the same thing about FF16's first act, going even further in suggesting it could beat Zelda for overall GOTY. Opinions can change after a game releases and people play the whole game. So we'll have to wait and see.

Tears of the Kingdom is not an RPG (as do some of the games on the poll), so it will not be the RPG that will GOTY.

Zelda will probably be my favourite RPG of the year, but Starfield might surprise.

Final fantasy and Starfield are definitely on my radar to play when they come out on PC down the road, and I just bought Hogwarts Legacy on the Steam sale and I've really enjoyed playing it so far. That being said, I played baldur's Gate 3 in early access and it blew me away. The amount of role playing you can do in that game along with the customized systems in place and the volume of content makes me think Larian Studios is going to knock it out of the RPG park once again when it goes full release.

People voting for games that aren't even out yet.

Also, Zelda TotK is clearly an action/adventure game with RPG elements. Not an RPG game per se.

FF16: Just finished the main story. What a journey. Definitely not only the best RPG, but my GOTY so far.

TotK: The most creative, fun and wonderful action-adventure I've played recently.

Starfield: It looks like a standard Bethesda RPG, only with FO76 in space, from what I saw of the presentation. I expect it to be just a boring buggy mess in empty space.

BG3: It will appeal to a niche audience that likes this kind of genre (lots of text dialogue, lots of classes, lots of branching paths), but I'm not particularly interested in it.

@lebanese_boy: I wonder if its what Nintendo calls it, an action adventure role playing game? Hmm...

I wouldn't really call it a niche audience, judging from the sales numbers so far.

Larian's previous game, Divinity Original Sin 2, was hugely successful for a PC-focused RPG. It appears to have sold arpund 4-5 million copies on Steam alone (and it was popular on the Switch, too, plus there was a PS4 version). It had a surprisingly large audience, even if it didn't appeal to casuals.

Baldurs Gate 3 will be more popular. Baldurs Gate was one of the biggest RPG series of the late 90s/early 00s (relatively bigger than Mass Effect, KOTOR or Dragon Age), so it has massive nostalgia pull behind it. This one is also a DnD 5e game, and DnD is the most popular tabletop RPG in the world. Hasbro has been cross-promoting BG3 for years, so I suspect it will do quite well in sales.

@Planeforger: Divinity Original Sin 2 was also on the Xbox One. That’s the version I bought.

Where did you get these numbers? When I did a quick search it was much lower.

A bit strange to compare games that have not been released with some that have. And some games are not actual RPGs. Anyway, I vote for Starfield.

The steam tracker numbers line up with what he said.

Mass Effect was a lot bigger than Baldur's Gate. The BG series sold 5M, whereas the ME series sold 14M.

The recent D&D movie was a flop, despite getting good reviews. Likewise, D&D video games have always been niche (BG 1 & 2 are the only ones I can think of that sold over a million). D&D has always struggled when it came to video games or movies.

Still, BG3 should sell a few millions. Probably around 4-5 million, if I had to make a prediction.

The last official number was 1M back in 2017, but Steam Spy estimates DOS2 has since sold 5M as of 2023.

Neverwinter Nights sold 2.2 million copies.

@Maroxad: That too. Didn't know it was based on D&D though.

Thanks. Yes, the official 1M for the year of release was what I saw, which is a third of FF16's first week's sales. But if Steam Spy is right, it seems to have long legs in terms of sales.

Already sold near 2 million.

DOS2 sold 5 million, we could see big sales here.

Could easily win RPG OTY.

Hasn't Baldur's Gate been out for years now in early access?

I don't think it will be close, the Zelda game will win.

Zelda will win Goty nothing is gonna change that.

As for RPG of the year, have to go with BG3 and I've had it since day 1 of EA so I'm looking forward to finally playing it fully.

That's the Steam effect. Steam releases tend to have longer legs than console releases. Whereas console releases tend to have bigger launch sales than Steam releases. The latter usually makes more revenue though, due to games being sold at full price upon launch (or even higher with limited editions). Comparing the examples you gave, FF16's 3M sales in its first week ($70+ each) made more money than DOS2's 5M sales in five years ($15-45 each). But at the same time, FF16 had a much higher budget, so it needs more revenue to make a profit.

Hence why I predict 4-5 million. It should sell similar numbers to DOS2, due to both having more-or-less the same core audience base (old-school CRPG fans).

It will only be a leading contender if it scores well into the 90s on Metacritic. Early access looks positive, but demos and early access don't always translate into critical acclaim upon release.

BG3 can easily explode in sales, far more than 5 million.

This looks like it could challenge Zelda for GOTY.

Highly unlikely. No old-school CRPG has ever sold more than 5M. For such a breakout to happen, it would need to pull in new audiences outside of the core fanbase, which I'm not seeing.

It doesn't stand a chance against Zelda for GOTY. But then again, I don't see any game this year standing a chance.

This is more than just an old school RPG, it is a modernization of it to where it is never been before.

The games reactivity is game changing. It is very much a match to Zelda in this.

BG3's latest showcase is really impressive. I feel like they've spent the last year just adding tons of reactivity to the game, so there's tons of branching paths and consequences for your actions.

I think they mentioned the finale has ~1900 lines of possible dialogue that might arise depending on what you do. Plus there's a new playable character with unique murderhobo tendencies, completely divergent paths for the party members (more than just a good/bad KOTOR choice), and apparently really significant changes if you side with the bad guys.

I reckon this'll be a 150 hour RPG with enough unique content to fill 3+ playthroughs.

@Planeforger: I hope it is not a 150 hour experience, that sounds terrible.