Not that I think it'll disappear the way of the Dreamcast (may it rest in peace). But it will be relegated to struggling to catch up, much like the Xbox was last generation against the all-mighty unbeatable PS2.
Before I start I should mention that I own both consoles and in fact bought the Playstation 3 first, followed by an Xbox 360. So it's not as though I've never played either of the consoles. Now that I've got that out of the way, let's get to why I think the PS3 is going to lose.
Time
The PS3 was a bit late on the timing, coming out a full year after the Xbox 360 (similar to how the original Xbox came out on the tail end of the Playstation 2). A year was enough time for the Xbox to grab a lot of exclusives, and of course after Halo 3 the 360 got a huge boost of momentum.
Marketing Strategy
Sony seems to be making a lot of very strange decisions. First, they cut out the 20gb version (why?), thus eliminating the cheap entry-point system. It's a damn good thing they're making a 40gb version but it's too little, too late. The whole reason for a cheap entry-point system is for the vast majority of people who don't have $600 to blow on a system (like, umm, me. I had to get my 60gb version for $450, used). If they had, for instance, a no-hard drive system for, maybe, $300, that MIGHT induce people to buy it (considering that the PS3 can take any 2.5" SATA notebook harddrive, upgrading the HDD is very easy on the PS3).
As long as Sony decides to over-price the PS3 without offering a cheap entry-level version (and the 40gb version doesn't really count, it's still more expensive than both the Core 360 and the Premium), the only people that will buy it will be idiots like me, cows, and 20-something techies making 80k+ a year with nowhere to spend their money.
Game selection & online play
Yes, I have quite a few games on the PS3. Yes I'm expecting a lot more too. But still, I'm in the minority. I happen to like JRPGs (Final Fantasy, Folklore), and shooters (Warhawk, Resistance). I also happen to be a Ratchet and Clank fan. But for most people out there, they want to melt face online, and there's where the PS3 falls flat on its face. The Playstation Network is frankly unimpressive. There's practically no voice chatter, and while there's usually people online, there's no way to tell what they're like (no gamercard for the PS3).
Xbox LIVE is infinitely superior to the PSN, and probably because it's been around for much longer. Sony really needs to get its act together if it wants to beat Microsoft at this. Oh and one other thing: the PS3 is technically far superior to the Xbox in terms of the kind of graphics it can push out, but I've not seen any developer take full advantage of that yet. Has there been any game out that beats Gears of War graphically? If there has I haven't played it.
This on top of the fact that Sony has been hemmoraging exclusives like crazy. Losing Assassin's Creed wasn't a very smart move, if you ask me. I was going to get it for the PS3, now I'm getting it for the Xbox. Why? The Achievements, of course :). Yeah, you'd probably get a statue in Playstation Home for playing Assassin's Creed ... next year. Sometime. Or you could get achievements on launch day.
Momentum
Momentum is built when you start moving. Then intertia takes you along; it's easier to keep running than it is to start running. Microsoft had a rough start for the Xbox 360, but that's because, like I said, it's harder to start than it is to keep going. Most consoles have rough starts, but Microsoft had a year to get their act together. And they did. And they had the HUGE advantage of not having any competitors making their job harder. Now the PS3 is relatively new, so some of the problems can be attributed to just working out the kinks, but they're doing it while trying to fend off the 360. So which would you choose? A relatively new, unproven system, or the well-established 360?
But the real loser is going to be...
PCs, I predict. I remember a long, long time ago, when I walked into a GameStop, or EBGames, or any other game store, there were whole shelves of PC games. Even a shelf for Macintosh games. And of course, the back row was full of PS2 games and a few Xbox and Gamecube ones too. Now, the whole store is covered wall to wall in 360, PS3, and Wii games, and there's maybe one shelf of PC games, and most of them are more than five months old. While the PS3 is going to lose the system wars I think the biggest loser is going to be the PC - it's always going to be the "also-ran", the system that console games are going to be ported to "eventually, when we have time, maybe".
I think the real reason that PCs are getting less attention is, ironically, because of the Xbox 360. A little history lesson now: back when the Playstation was out, Microsoft was (justifiably) worried that console gaming would overtake PC gaming (if you ask me it already has). Obviously, PC gaming was big for Microsoft, so it wanted to protect its market. It decided to release its own console to match the Playstation 2: the DirectX Box (to show off the DirectX capabilities of the Xbox). Later that got shortened to just "Xbox". But since it now had its own console to support, I get the feeling Microsoft isn't so hyped up about PC games anymore since it doesn't need to worry about it so much.
Let the flaming begin! :) :) :)
Log in to comment