Would it be wise for Sony and Microsoft to "skip" a generation?
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Upon what basis are you assuming that new hardware will necessarily bring about new IPs. If anything the spiralling development costs would serve to make publishers more risk averse. What makes the core game of Uncharted impossible on a PS2 or XBOX? Where is this well-spring of innovation this generation, compared to the last generation, that apparently the better hardware of the PS3 and 360 bring? Have we been inundated with Okamis and Shadows of the Colossi and Icos and Katamaris? How fantastic was Final Fantasy XIII relative to Final Fantasy X?[QUOTE="-RocBoys9489-"]Going by your logic, every gen would last like what, 10 years?! Obviously that has not been the case and you should realize that after this year, this gen is pretty much done. We've seen damn near every sequel and CoD for the last 6 years annually. It's time for new IPs and you know what developers want to start those? New technology. Was ND thinking they could do Uncharted on PS2? How about Mass Effect on original Xbox? Gears of War? Heck, Call of fricken Duty, that was popular on the old consoles *sarcasm* LA Noire, RDR, GTAIV? Battlefield? Killzone? Heavy Rain?shinrabanshou
You've still yet to provide a value proposition derived from new hardware that would appeal to a broad audience sufficient to incentivise the move to the new platform. The average consumer doesn't read Digital Foundry, doesn't care about slightly better particle effects, won't notice the difference between 720p and 1080p and isn't going to shell out hundreds of dollars just to have 16 players in their multiplayer match instead of 8.
The question isn't do the few early adopters who think this generation is "done" want new hardware. The questions are, does the market as a whole want it, is there incentive for publishers and is there incentive for the manufacturers themselves. The answers to the latter two are - not really.
First mover advantage has been eroded before, it can be eroded again.
I still think that you just don't get it. Let's go back to Call of Duty, how successful and popular was it using PS2 and Xbox hardware? Total crap, the game was not huge at all and was just another WWII FPS franchise. Now go to 2005 with 360 and CoD2. WOAH! 60 FPS hot action, look at this game, it's so smooth and fast paced! The game perpetuated itself to the #1 game on Xbox LIVE and continued to grow every year into the biggest videogame franchise ever. You say the core game of Uncharted is possible on PS2 or Xbox? Of course, but with what sacrifices? The game is all about PRESENTATION and the PS2 would have made the game below average and probably terrible, did I even mention Blu-ray storage? MGSIV on PS2? :lol: Keep dreaming pal, innovation every generation goes hand in hand with new technology and doesn't always create new experiences, but much better experiences.Did the market in 2004/2005 want new hardware? No, I'm sure there were people who thought the PS2 was already capable of making great games forever, but guess what. E3 2005 came around and all anybody wanted was the new consoles. I still remember the Killzone 2 E3 05' trailer, that had the entire industry in an uproar and commenced the hype for new consoles. MILLIONS will want and buy the new hardware for the better game experiences, just face it.
edit: I don't like how you mention dev costs going up, developers DO NOT HAVE TO make every game like Avatar, instead of focusing on graphics trying to be more "photorealistic" developers want to improve their games on a more technical basis, the experiences are being limited now by the old hardware. If you don't believe me, then wait until we get to see the first footage of BF3 multiplayer on PC and then footage of the console version. That's just going to be the tip of the iceberg.
a BIG NO to that..... one it would be really hard for them to recapture their fanbase. As I see many of them moving on to PC, or just away from gaming. Sure you can keep supporting your system for 10 sum years, but its not going to get anyone exited and rush out and buy your product. The new systems will come, maybe a bit late this time around, but they are coming..... 2013 probably.
GTSaiyanjin2
Notice he didnt say Microsoft & Sony gamers would jump to Nintendo......
Stupid gamespot inability to multiquote.
-RocBoys9489- "I still think that you just don't get it. Let's go back to Call of Duty, how successful and popular was it using PS2 and Xbox hardware? Total crap, the game was not huge at all and was just another WWII FPS franchise. Now go to 2005 with 360 and CoD2. WOAH! 60 FPS hot action, look at this game, it's so smooth and fast paced! The game perpetuated itself to the #1 game on Xbox LIVE and continued to grow every year into the biggest videogame franchise ever. You say the core game of Uncharted is possible on PS2 or Xbox? Of course, but with what sacrifices? The game is all about PRESENTATION and the PS2 would have made the game below average and probably terrible, did I even mention Blu-ray storage? MGSIV on PS2? :lol:"
Yes, we already established there was a tangible and significant leap in graphical quality between the sixth and seventh generation consoles that provided a value proposition, while the sixth generation wouldn't be able to achieve these graphics at all let alone at the same native framerate.
What you've yet to establish is a tangible value proposition for an eight generation that requires Sony and MS launch right after the N6.
Keep dreaming pal, innovation every generation goes hand in hand with new technology and doesn't always create new experiences, but much better experiences.-RocBoys9489-That's nice but you fail to actually exemplify this wellspring of innovation that's come about from the seventh gen. Feel free to.
Did the market in 2004/2005 want new hardware? No, I'm sure there were people who thought the PS2 was already capable of making great games forever, but guess what. E3 2005 came around and all anybody wanted was the new consoles. I still remember the Killzone 2 E3 05' trailer, that had the entire industry in an uproar and commenced the hype for new consoles. MILLIONS will want and buy the new hardware for the better game experiences, just face it.-RocBoys9489-Two of the manufacturers wanted new hardware in 2005. Two of the manufacturers have no incentive for releasing new hardware now. In the meantime we've had ourselves a lovely global financial crisis with recessions in many markets and economic collapses.
Sure, a few million will rush out and buy the N6. Just like a few million rushed out to buy the 360 at launch. And then the Wii launched later with a better value proposition and eliminated that first-mover advantage.
edit: I don't like how you mention dev costs going up, developers DO NOT HAVE TO make every game like Avatar, instead of focusing on graphics trying to be more "photorealistic" developers want to improve their games on a more technical basis, the experiences are being limited now by the old hardware. If you don't believe me, then wait until we get to see the first footage of BF3 multiplayer on PC and then footage of the console version. That's just going to be the tip of the iceberg-RocBoys9489-You may not like that it's mentioned, but it is a truism. New hardware, more complex hardware, more complex engines, the need to build new engines, more art assets, all require the human capital behind it and that skill base cost money.
I'm not arguing with the whether or not it's valid that hardware is limiting development. But due to diminishing returns each hardware cycle, I doubt the improvements will overcome the threshold for change in consumers. And there's still more incentive for the manufacturers and publishers to delay a new hardware cycle than to rush into a new one.
Sony and MS could rush out new hardware, but from a financial perspective, they don't necessarily need to to stay in the game.
[QUOTE="tubbyc"]
[QUOTE="Pug-Nasty"]
I don't think you can skip a generation. Whenever they release their next consoles would officially be their next gen. Am I crazy thinking this?
Pug-Nasty
Skipping would be if they waited until about 2015 or 2016, putting Project Cafe in a gen of its own.
I disagree. If anything, this project cafe appears to be just catching up with the ps3 and 360 in terms of capabilities. Cafe won't be forcing either of the other companies to upgrade.
Exactly all both firms need to do is crank out more High Quality games!! People stopped buying PS2 games, because the PS3 had better versions of the same games. The Cafe will have the same games the PS3 & 360 already have. They want more 3 party support, but the best games on the Nintendo Cafe Feel will be made by Nintendo. Is this not correct?To illustrate the diminishing returns of recent hardware cycle refreshes.
On what incentive? Assuming third party developers don't abandon the 100 million+ installed base (~130 million probably by the time the N6 comes out) still showing strong Y/Y software growth.[QUOTE="ArchoNils2"]
It would be a horrible idea since a lot of their fanbase would switch / focus more on Nintendo / PC
shinrabanshou
install bases don't matter. Ps2 sold 120 million consoles yet when the ps3 came out everyone completely jumped ship, same thing with the psone and every other system ever. Doesn't matter how big an install base is that is not what attracts developers or games as much as people think.
They matter to publishers. The money behind development. :/ Hardware growth, software growth, tie ratio improvement, cost of revenue. Hardware is expected to continue growing, software growth is still evident, the 360 tie ratio is steady despite expansion of the installed base, and the PS3 ratio has grown, cost of revenue has reduced as the generation progresses due to the ability to reuse engines and familiarity with the hardware breeding efficiency.install bases don't matter. Ps2 sold 120 million consoles yet when the ps3 came out everyone completely jumped ship, same thing with the psone and every other system ever. Doesn't matter how big an install base is that is not what attracts developers or games as much as people think.
VendettaRed07
Absolutely not. I want a 5 way GTX 580 2gb ram 12 core 5ghz cpu PS4 coming out :(((
Who is they? Win what? How can you win a race if you are the only one on THAT track?? Good games are good games. Good Games sell systems.[QUOTE="metal_zombie"]No we need new consoles now.....unless they want Nintendo too win the next gen tooCoolyfett
I agree to a large extent, the games are indeed what sell systems, but I think Sony and Microsoft would be wise not to leave it too long before releasing new hardware, after all, "new consoles" also appeal to people
Two of the manufacturers wanted new hardware in 2005. Two of the manufacturers have no incentive for releasing new hardware now. In the meantime we've had ourselves a lovely global financial crisis with recessions in many markets and economic collapses.Stupid gamespot inability to multiquote.
-RocBoys9489- "I still think that you just don't get it. Let's go back to Call of Duty, how successful and popular was it using PS2 and Xbox hardware? Total crap, the game was not huge at all and was just another WWII FPS franchise. Now go to 2005 with 360 and CoD2. WOAH! 60 FPS hot action, look at this game, it's so smooth and fast paced! The game perpetuated itself to the #1 game on Xbox LIVE and continued to grow every year into the biggest videogame franchise ever. You say the core game of Uncharted is possible on PS2 or Xbox? Of course, but with what sacrifices? The game is all about PRESENTATION and the PS2 would have made the game below average and probably terrible, did I even mention Blu-ray storage? MGSIV on PS2? :lol:"
Yes, we already established there was a tangible and significant leap in graphical quality between the sixth and seventh generation consoles that provided a value proposition, while the sixth generation wouldn't be able to achieve these graphics at all let alone at the same native framerate.
What you've yet to establish is a tangible value proposition for an eight generation that requires Sony and MS launch right after the N6. [QUOTE="-RocBoys9489-"]That's nice but you fail to actually exemplify this wellspring of innovation that's come about from the seventh gen. Feel free to.
[QUOTE="-RocBoys9489-"]Did the market in 2004/2005 want new hardware? No, I'm sure there were people who thought the PS2 was already capable of making great games forever, but guess what. E3 2005 came around and all anybody wanted was the new consoles. I still remember the Killzone 2 E3 05' trailer, that had the entire industry in an uproar and commenced the hype for new consoles. MILLIONS will want and buy the new hardware for the better game experiences, just face it.shinrabanshou
Sure, a few million will rush out and buy the N6. Just like a few million rushed out to buy the 360 at launch. And then the Wii launched later with a better value proposition and eliminated that first-mover advantage.
edit: I don't like how you mention dev costs going up, developers DO NOT HAVE TO make every game like Avatar, instead of focusing on graphics trying to be more "photorealistic" developers want to improve their games on a more technical basis, the experiences are being limited now by the old hardware. If you don't believe me, then wait until we get to see the first footage of BF3 multiplayer on PC and then footage of the console version. That's just going to be the tip of the iceberg-RocBoys9489-You may not like that it's mentioned, but it is a truism. New hardware, more complex hardware, more complex engines, the need to build new engines, more art assets, all require the human capital behind it and that skill base cost money.
I'm not arguing with the whether or not it's valid that hardware is limiting development. But due to diminishing returns each hardware cycle, I doubt the improvements will overcome the threshold for change in consumers. And there's still more incentive for the manufacturers and publishers to delay a new hardware cycle than to rush into a new one.
As far as what the 7th generation has brought, it absolutely changed the way I game. The console became much more user friendly and interactive, marketplaces full of movies, music, games, expansions, just thousands of items. Netflix and Hulu, streaming media to my personal computer. A constantly updating dashboard with news and streaming shows. The guide button has brought uniformity to anything I want to do on the console. The ability to be with 7 other friends in a party no matter what we are doing. I haven't even mentioned HD, I remember the first time I got that TV and switched to the HD setting on my 360's video cable. It made R6 Vegas go from crappy to amazing looking game.
You seem overall to think that there is nothing the manufacturers can do to improve their console, and I thought the same thing back when I was playing Halo 2 on Xbox Live in 2004. I never would have guessed that new consoles would do so much. Improved hardware WILL bring about even more innovation, I guarentee it. Can I say? No, if I could, well I would be employed for one of the Big 3 and making millions.
I wouldn't. I have enough gaves to keep me playing for 2 years straight. i have a lot of catching up to do.It would be a horrible idea since a lot of their fanbase would switch / focus more on Nintendo / PC
ArchoNils2
No, skipping would be bad, becauseit is all about momentum. Skipping gen 8 would make it harder in gen 9 to succeed. Not to mention it's easier to get people excited about a new product than the one they've been hearing about for 6 years.
Engines can easily be licensed and sold for use, that is going to be the future, I guarantee you the new Unreal engine and Frostbites engines are going to be used greatly if new consoles come out. And more than a few million are going to buy the new Nintendo console, tens of millions are going to rush out and buy it, which then will tell MS and Sony "What are you waiting for?!" And a tangible value proposition? Battlefield 3, enough said. I haven't even mentioned the innovations in GPU and CPU hardware as of lately either, intel's ivybridge with 3D transistors is going to change technology drastically in every electronic. (and guess what, it costs a couple dollars more to manufacture then current chips ;) )-RocBoys9489-I'm looking at the 3DS launch, a product that has a very clear USPs over the previous iteration of portable hardware and seeing less than stellar consumer response. I expect that lest the gimmick of a touch controller gain headway, which it may I suppose, there'll be little movement in the market. Leaked slides have already indicated cross-generational portability between the N6 and current generation consoles. I think you underestimate the costs involved with launching a product.
The answers to the question "What are you waiting for?" for both Sony and MS is simple. Reductions in BoMs to allow for a smaller loss lead or a hardware profit, decline in software support and sales sufficient to warrant a move, decline in hardware sales sufficient to warrant a move.
As far as what the 7th generation has brought, it absolutely changed the way I game. The console became much more user friendly and interactive, marketplaces full of movies, music, games, expansions, just thousands of items. Netflix and Hulu, streaming media to my personal computer. A constantly updating dashboard with news and streaming shows. The guide button has brought uniformity to anything I want to do on the console. The ability to be with 7 other friends in a party no matter what we are doing. I haven't even mentioned HD, I remember the first time I got that TV and switched to the HD setting on my 360's video cable. It made R6 Vegas go from crappy to amazing looking game.-RocBoys9489-You do realise that most of those things are a software layer and largely peripheral to actual gaming? Aside from an HD resolution, which as previously established did serve in some manner as part of a value proposition.
You seem overall to think that there is nothing the manufacturers can do to improve their console, and I thought the same thing back when I was playing Halo 2 on Xbox Live in 2004. I never would have guessed that new consoles would do so much. Improved hardware WILL bring about even more innovation, I guarentee it. Can I say? No, if I could, well I would be employed for one of the Big 3 and making millions.-RocBoys9489-That's untrue, I can see things that can be done, I realise that improvements can be made. But I'm not trying to look at it from my own perspective in particular. I'm trying to look at it from a broad consumer perspective. And the average consumer doesn't care about tri-gate transistors.
[QUOTE="hakanakumono"]
It makes no sense to improve beyond this point. Games have been able to improve as far as they have because they were within a threshold of affordability. But as costs skyrocket, sales remain the same. In fact, supposedly Japanese games sell less than they did in the PS1 era.
It doesn't make sense to continuously increase costs, without increasing profitability.
topgunmv
Costs are skyrocketing because every developer is trying to create a magnum opus. It's essentially like every movie trying to be like avatar, but bigger, and doing it by spending more money.
There's a reason that all these small indie devs can make awesome looking pc games with a small team and budget.
But what happens when you want your vision realized and it does require a big budget? Too bad for you, you'll just have to work on a less impressive project and realize it in a less impressive manner?
I don't think this is really true anyways, otherwise we'd be seeing a continuation of the smaller projects from last gen.
[QUOTE="topgunmv"]
[QUOTE="hakanakumono"]
It makes no sense to improve beyond this point. Games have been able to improve as far as they have because they were within a threshold of affordability. But as costs skyrocket, sales remain the same. In fact, supposedly Japanese games sell less than they did in the PS1 era.
It doesn't make sense to continuously increase costs, without increasing profitability.
hakanakumono
Costs are skyrocketing because every developer is trying to create a magnum opus. It's essentially like every movie trying to be like avatar, but bigger, and doing it by spending more money.
There's a reason that all these small indie devs can make awesome looking pc games with a small team and budget.
But what happens when you want your vision realized and it does require a big budget? Too bad for you, you'll just have to work on a less impressive project and realize it in a less impressive manner?
I don't think this is really true anyways, otherwise we'd be seeing a continuation of the smaller projects from last gen.
See: Download only games.
And everyone would gladly take a zillion dollar budget, but not every developer or movie maker has access to avatar/gta4 sized funds.
Part of being a professional is making the most of what you have.
Nintendo did, more or less, and they sold a few consoles.
I'm still getting a lot of enjoyment out of this gen, and new games are still flowing at a consistant pace.
I would like to see a new console from Sony and MS but its not NEEDED.
You do realise that most of those things are a software layer and largely peripheral to actual gaming? Aside from an HD resolution, which as previously established did serve in some manner as part of a value proposition.[QUOTE="-RocBoys9489-"]I'm looking at the 3DS launch, a product that has a very clear USPs over the previous iteration of portable hardware and seeing less than stellar consumer response. I expect that lest the gimmick of a touch controller gain headway, which it may I suppose, there'll be little movement in the market. Leaked slides have already indicated cross-generational portability between the N6 and current generation consoles. I think you underestimate the costs involved with launching a product.
The answers to the question "What are you waiting for?" for both Sony and MS is simple. Reductions in BoMs to allow for a smaller loss lead or a hardware profit, decline in software support and sales sufficient to warrant a move, decline in hardware sales sufficient to warrant a move.
[QUOTE="-RocBoys9489-"]As far as what the 7th generation has brought, it absolutely changed the way I game. The console became much more user friendly and interactive, marketplaces full of movies, music, games, expansions, just thousands of items. Netflix and Hulu, streaming media to my personal computer. A constantly updating dashboard with news and streaming shows. The guide button has brought uniformity to anything I want to do on the console. The ability to be with 7 other friends in a party no matter what we are doing. I haven't even mentioned HD, I remember the first time I got that TV and switched to the HD setting on my 360's video cable. It made R6 Vegas go from crappy to amazing looking game.shinrabanshou
You seem overall to think that there is nothing the manufacturers can do to improve their console, and I thought the same thing back when I was playing Halo 2 on Xbox Live in 2004. I never would have guessed that new consoles would do so much. Improved hardware WILL bring about even more innovation, I guarentee it. Can I say? No, if I could, well I would be employed for one of the Big 3 and making millions.-RocBoys9489-That's untrue, I can see things that can be done, I realise that improvements can be made. But I'm not trying to look at it from my own perspective in particular. I'm trying to look at it from a broad consumer perspective. And the average consumer doesn't care about tri-gate transistors. And you do realize that all that software would run like total crap on the old consoles? :? Guide button was hardware btw. Not to mention the software has to chug enough already sometimes and could be much smoother. As for the 3DS, this is deja vu 2004 with the DS, it's going to gain tons of steam this holiday and early next year and never stop, just like every other DS model has. And trust me, the average consumer DOES care about trigate transistors, go look at Apple's business model please, the smartphone market, etc.
I'm still getting a lot of enjoyment out of this gen, and new games are still flowing at a consistant pace.
I would like to see a new console from Sony and MS but its not NEEDED.
good_sk8er7
Yeah. Part of me doesn't even want to see a new console, as I have plenty of games I can buy for 20 to 30 dollars. The techie side of me wants to see them, of course, but at the same time if they did arrive, I know I would buy one and not use the perfectly fine systems that I have right now.
[QUOTE="good_sk8er7"]
I'm still getting a lot of enjoyment out of this gen, and new games are still flowing at a consistant pace.
I would like to see a new console from Sony and MS but its not NEEDED.
Heirren
Yeah. Part of me doesn't even want to see a new console, as I have plenty of games I can buy for 20 to 30 dollars. The techie side of me wants to see them, of course, but at the same time if they did arrive, I know I would buy one and not use the perfectly fine systems that I have right now.
Thank you for saying that, I believe that this is what the "average" "broad" consumer perspective is right now. Heck, all my friends back at school even mention how long the consoles have been out, and are wondering when the PS4 is coming out lol.
Project Cafe would probably come out in 2012-2013,
The consoles are showing their age now the leap probably should be for ps360 around 2014-2015 which is close to sony's 10 year plan
Why would M$ do that? They are making tons of money and XBL is good so yea that won't be happening.
Nintendo did, more or less, and they sold a few consoles.
Heirren
There's definitely room for a budget console, as the Wii clearly shows. I don't think the success of the Wii, in regards to casuals buying en masse, is likely to be repeated any time soon, though. I can't imagine casuals are going to be in a rush to upgrade, nor do I think the core gaming crowd wants to support another "Wii."
That being said, if Nintendo released a console that's a bit more powerful than the HD consoles, and at a decent price point (since they are essentially jumping in after costs have already gone down) then I see no reason why console generations can't be offset from now on.
I like the idea of new hardware, from different manufacturers, coming out every 3 years or so. I can see how this might be an issue for publishers though.
Well PS4 is out of the question. I suppose Microsoft would rush something out to compete with Nintendo, but I believe Sony and Microsoft have seen their best days in the console market.
Hypothetical scenario 1 if this happens:
2012 Increased software support from MS and Sony extends current generation, but the excitement is high around Nintendo's new offering and the forward possibilities of improved PC multiplats.
2013 Continued first party support keeps both MS and Sony in the game, signalling their consoles are still a safe bet for third parties, but one of them begins to trail off more than the other because there's only so much room for what two old systems can offer in the face of ever improving first party Nintendo games and superior Nintendo multiplats.
2014 One of the two is limping along and the other begins to trail off as well, it become obvious that the failing of the two is going to shoot a year early (very late actually, but since we skipped, early in this context) on generation 9.
2015 Whichever one lost 2013-14 releases their generation 9 console, but coming off their recent failure and the fact that their system will be outdone the following year by Nintendo and whichever one won, they don't get as much advantage going first as say, the 360 this generation, but the situation isn't as dire as say, the Dreamcast either, because all three are healthier than Sega was at the time.
2016 Nintendo and the Winner of MS\Sony from 2013-14 release their consoles for generation 9, which is competitive for all three companies.
Results of generation 8: Nintendo wins if the generation is counted from the day Cafe launches, but they don't reach the milestones they would have liked due to the slightly truncated 8th generation, milestones that may not even match the overall sales of the 360 or PS3, owing to their lengthy life-cycle. All three are in an acceptable position for generation 9, which is a toss-up.
Hypothetical scenario 2 if this happpens:
2012 MS, Sony, or both underestimate the amount of increased first party support needed to offset the hype of Nintendo's new console. The press and gamers in general remain convinced this is a new generation, generation 8, to be precise. Because of the lack of activity and enthusiasm on the MS\Sony front, third parties believe they might sell more if they focus on superior offerings for Nintendo\PC and begin shifting development accordingly.
2013 Sales drop sharply for the 360 and PS3 as more and more multi-plats fail to be released with one being harder hit than the other, but both clearly losing ground relative to Nintendo.
2014 One of the two is forced into the next, next generation way too early and becomes a bridge console, lost between generation 8 and generation 9, much like the Turbo-grafx 16 was lost between generation 3 and 4.
2015 The winner gets the honor of debuting generation 9 proper, Nintendo sticks with 3 year old Cafe owing to its clear strength.
2016 Nintendo again sticks with the 4 year old Cafe, but they maybe overextending generation 8 despite it only being 4 years old. The console that debuted generation 9 in 2014 already loses its lead and is headed for a miserable generation 9. The other is strengthened by winning that two-way Sony\MS competition and their year and a half to two year head start over Nintendo will be real and meaningful.
2017 Nintendo joins generation 9 with the best hardware, but late to the party.
Results of Generation 8 in scenario 2: Nintendo has a large and easy win. Too large and too easy, actually, such that they leave the door open for competition in Generation 9. Generation 9 in this scenario would last a full 5-6 years with the middle console in terms of date of release, AKA the winner of MS\Sony from generation 8, being a clear victor, Nintendo being an OK second and the loser of MS\Sony in generation 8 losing two in a row, this time badly, and possibly exiting the industry.
I like how everyone is like we need new consoles now.
DiRT3 is a perfect example of squeezing that extra little bit out the consoles still works.In motion that game easily wipes the floor, also are people so obsessed with graphics nowadays?
Seiki_sands, I won't get into detail on those hypothetical situations. But suffice to say, both of them assume a flock to "PC/Nintendo multiplats" and an incredible amount of "hype" surrounding Project Cafe. (Edit: Never mind, it looks like you edited the first scenario a bit.)
Third party developers love the 360 and PS3, especially the 360. That's been their bread winner this generation, with the PS3 not far behind. There is no credible proof that Cafe is in some huge league above the 360/PS3. There is no credible proof that Cafe will win over the huge league of gamers who are invested in Xbox Live and PSN and prefer to buy the hardcore games on those systems. But, we will see for ourselves at E3 what it is really capable of...
Ubisoft's CEO has already declared his intention to pursue cross-platform development across all three platforms. IGN used a mere Radeon 4850 in their "Build a Cafe" test run. Such a small GPU jump will not likely be enough to convince developers to drop support for two very important gaming platforms.
Seiki_sands, I won't get into detail on those hypothetical situations. But suffice to say, both of them assume some mythical flock to "PC/Nintendo multiplats" and an incredible amount of "hype" surrounding Project Cafe.
Third party developers love the 360 and PS3, especially the 360. That's been their bread winner this generation, with the PS3 not far behind. There is no credible proof that Cafe is in some huge league above the 360/PS3. There is no credible proof that Cafe will win over the huge league of gamers who are invested in Xbox Live and PSN and prefer to buy the hardcore games on those systems.
Ubisoft's CEO has already declared his intention to pursue cross-platform development across all three platform. IGN used a mere Radeon 4850 in their "Build a Cafe" test run. Such a small GPU jump will not likely be enough to convince developers to drop support for two very important gaming platforms.
SakusEnvoy
No, scenario 1 does not assume a mythical flock, it merely acknowledges there will be hype, but I suggest it can be offset by really strong first party support, stronger than current levels, because Sony and MS would need to convince third parties that the hype surrounding next generation won't translate to lost sales as they plan upcoming projects and allocate resources.
The idea that MS or Sony could coast through an entire generation because of a large install base isn't realistic to me. When was there ever NOT hype surrounding a new generation?
If all it took was a large and growing base the PS2 would have gotten more than a few Wii minus motion licencesed games in 2007, together with a couple of low selling niche titles.
[QUOTE="SakusEnvoy"]
Seiki_sands, I won't get into detail on those hypothetical situations. But suffice to say, both of them assume some mythical flock to "PC/Nintendo multiplats" and an incredible amount of "hype" surrounding Project Cafe.
Third party developers love the 360 and PS3, especially the 360. That's been their bread winner this generation, with the PS3 not far behind. There is no credible proof that Cafe is in some huge league above the 360/PS3. There is no credible proof that Cafe will win over the huge league of gamers who are invested in Xbox Live and PSN and prefer to buy the hardcore games on those systems.
Ubisoft's CEO has already declared his intention to pursue cross-platform development across all three platform. IGN used a mere Radeon 4850 in their "Build a Cafe" test run. Such a small GPU jump will not likely be enough to convince developers to drop support for two very important gaming platforms.
Seiki_sands
No, scenario 1 does not assume a mythical flock, it merely acknowledges there will be hype, but I suggest it can be offset by really strong first party support, stronger than current levels, because Sony and MS would need to convince third parties that the hype surrounding next generation won't translate to lost sales as they plan upcoming projects and allocate resources.
The idea that MS or Sony could coast through an entire generation because of a large install base isn't realistic to me. When was there ever NOT hype surrounding a new generation?
If all it took was a large and growing base the PS2 would have gotten more than a few Wii minus motion licencesed games in 2007, together with a couple of low selling niche titles.
Many developers were hesitant to jump into the Xbox 360, though; the PS2 unquestionably had the best library in 2006. After that developers began to move into PC/PS3/360 multiplats. They generally abandoned platform exclusivity in favor of combining the install base of multiple growing systems, which led to very positive sales results.We will never know how the PS2 would have fared in the absence of an Xbox 360 or PS3. If the PS2 and Wii were the sole systems on the market, and Sony continued to push the PS2 as their main platform, who's to say that PS2/Wii titles wouldn't have been extremely common?
Hmm if both Sony and MS ignores to release a new console to answer Nintendo's Café - isn't that almost like denying them "next gen". To me it sounds like Nintendo is releasing a current gen console - if you look at the specs and features - nothing mind blowing.
So, all of us have been hearing about project cafe recently, but I was just thinking, would it be a good idea for Sony and Microsoft to not make a new console and to continue to support the PS3 and Xbox360 until the "PROJECT CAFE" succesor comes out?
Let's see:
-It would allow for there to be a more noticeable jump in the generations.
- It would really damper on Nintendo's lead. If all three consoles have the same specs and the Nintendo sells for $100 more, who's ultimately going to make more sales?
-It wouldn't exactly place neither Microsoft nor Sony in a bad place, because they won't have to spend so much money on the development of these consoles, and allow them to save up more money for something truly extraordinary, while Nintendo tries to recover from putting out a new console.
Discuss.
verbtex
Dear mother of god. :?Project.Café will be generation ahead of 360 and PS3 in terms of specs.
Try to replace ATI RADEON HD 4850 with GeForce 7800 GT and see the difference yourself.
Well, whatever goes, I'm sticking with what Sony has to offer. I mean, I enjoyed my PS2 for over a decade, so why the rush? :)
There are pros and cons to skipping a gen but I'd say, they should wait a bit more for the technology to improve and be cheaper then release a console that can topple Nintendo. Maybe they;ll lose some to the PC market, but I highly doubt that many will switch to Nintendo just like that. I'm guessing I'm being biased but I think Sony and Microsoft shouldn't let Nintendo decide the tempo of the market. Let them with Project Cafe and then few years later, release something way better and let Nintendo reeling as it outdates its own console in a short span. :)
And you do realize that all that software would run like total crap on the old consoles? :? Guide button was hardware btw. Not to mention the software has to chug enough already sometimes and could be much smoother. As for the 3DS, this is deja vu 2004 with the DS, it's going to gain tons of steam this holiday and early next year and never stop, just like every other DS model has. And trust me, the average consumer DOES care about trigate transistors, go look at Apple's business model please, the smartphone market, etc.-RocBoys9489-Hulu and Netflix apps needed new hardware and the guide button are really your examples of the height of innovation of the 7th gen due to the transition?
The average consumer doesn't even know what a trigate transistor is, let along give a s*** about it. They may care about visible tangible outcomes from new technology, and will buy-in if they perceive those outcomes to be of sufficient improvement. The populace of this board is in no way representative of the average consumer.
Good games sell more systems than system wars chatter. People will continue to buy GOOD GAMES no matter what system they are on.This is the most common sense filled, educated, unbiased, and true statement that I've read on SW forum. You sir get my applause.[QUOTE="verbtex"]
So, all of us have been hearing about project cafe recently, but I was just thinking, would it be a good idea for Sony and Microsoft to not make a new console and to continue to support the PS3 and Xbox360 until the "PROJECT CAFE" succesor comes out?
Let's see:
-It would allow for there to be a more noticeable jump in the generations.
- It would really damper on Nintendo's lead. If all three consoles have the same specs and the Nintendo sells for $100 more, who's ultimately going to make more sales?
-It wouldn't exactly place neither Microsoft nor Sony in a bad place, because they won't have to spend so much money on the development of these consoles, and allow them to save up more money for something truly extraordinary, while Nintendo tries to recover from putting out a new console.
Discuss.
Coolyfett
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