Jair didn't get a low era because his defense was incredible behind him, he got a low era because he's a master at keeping hitters off balance. Maybe Jair gave up more walks but guess what...he got out of those jams. This fip stat sounds like a fantasy baseball stat which basically ignores some of Jair's strengths. Pitching to contact gets you dp's. Pitching to contact is an art(see 300 game winner Tom Glavine and to a degree... Greg Maddux).GrindingAxe

There are mountains of statistical evidence that proves that pitchers will revert to their FIP. There are a number of indidcators that suggest this for JJ. For one thing, his HR/FB rate (home runs per fly balls) is an unsustainably low 4.4%. Fly balls turn into home runs anywhere between 8-10 percents of the time, so as the season goes on, expect to see him give up a few more homers. Additionally, he leaves runners stranded 84% of the time, which is unsustainable.

Pitching to contact is a skill, and Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux were good at it. But their peripheral stats were not abnormal, like JJ's are currently. JJ is a very, very good pitcher, but he has been a bit lucky so far this year.

[QUOTE="TaCoDuDe"]

[QUOTE="GrindingAxe"] Fine...we'll ignore the wins. Would you like to ignore the ERA too? You can be a dominant pitcher and not be a strikeout whore.GrindingAxe

I didn't ignore ERA, I just used a more accurate statistic, FIP.

Strikeout pitchers are generally more desireable than pitchers who pitch to contact. When you pitch to contact, you're susceptible to errors, bloop hits, fly balls turning into home runs, etc.

Instead of immediately dismissing it, why not take a look at the definition? It's pretty simple: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/

Basically, pitchers have little control over what happens to a ball once the batter puts it in play. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) focuses on what pitchers CAN control, strikeouts, walks, HBP's, and home runs. It's extremely useful as a predictive stat.

And yes, Hanson was snubbed.

[QUOTE="TaCoDuDe"]

[QUOTE="GrindingAxe"] Why the rolly eyes? He accomplished those wins with an anemic offense..plus he started late in the season due to injury.GrindingAxe

We're way past the point of judging pitchers by wins. It's a statistic that the pitcher has barely any control over. Maybe we should start Kevin Correia? He has just as many wins as Halladay. Wins are meaningless.

Halladay is the better pitcher. Far better strikeout rate, fewer walks, better FIP. 5.1(!) WAR versus 2.3.

And again, I'm a Braves fan, I love Jair. If Halladay wasn't around, Jair would be the pitcher I'd start. But he's not, and hasn't been, better than Halladay.

I didn't ignore ERA, I just used a more accurate statistic, FIP.

Strikeout pitchers are generally more desireable than pitchers who pitch to contact. When you pitch to contact, you're susceptible to errors, bloop hits, fly balls turning into home runs, etc.

[QUOTE="TaCoDuDe"]

[QUOTE="GrindingAxe"] Jair has the lowest era and the most wins. This formula has always been the decider when it comes to deciding which pitcher who is most deserving. He's not a household name...that's why he was denied the starter spot. People like you will come up with nitpicky reasons why he shouldn't be the starter but those reasons will ring hollow. Jair is the man!GrindingAxe

Of that's right. I forgot about the WINZ. :roll:

We're way past the point of judging pitchers by wins. It's a statistic that the pitcher has barely any control over. Maybe we should start Kevin Correia? He has just as many wins as Halladay. Wins are meaningless.

Halladay is the better pitcher. Far better strikeout rate, fewer walks, better FIP. 5.1(!) WAR versus 2.3.

And again, I'm a Braves fan, I love Jair. If Halladay wasn't around, Jair would be the pitcher I'd start. But he's not, and hasn't been, better than Halladay.

[QUOTE="TaCoDuDe"]

[QUOTE="GrindingAxe"]Jair should of started for obvious reasons.GrindingAxe

What would those reasons be?

Of that's right. I forgot about the WINZ. :roll:

Jair should of started for obvious reasons.GrindingAxe

What would those reasons be?

OBP is important, it just isn't everything. Master_Live

I'll argue that it is. Let's look at the top ten offenses, next to the top 10 teams by OBP.

1. Red Sox 1. Red Sox

2. Rangers 2. Yankees

3. Yankees 3. Cardinals

4. Reds 4. Mets

5. Cardinals 5. Tigers

6. Blue Jays 6. Rangers

7. Diamondbacks 7. Reds

8. Tigers 8. Royals

9. Brewers 9. Brewers

10. Royals 10. Blue Jays

And now the bottom 3 in both categories:

1. Mariners 1. Mariners

2. Padres 2. Athletics

3. Athletics 3. Padres

So the Athletics are not a good "anti-OBP" argument, as they don't actually get on base at all. We see that the Diamondbacks* and Mets are the outliers**, but there is an obvious correlation between OBP and scoring runs, which is logical, as teams that get on base make fewer outs. When we look at the top ten teams by average, we see teams with poor offenses, such as the Cubs, Astros, and Orioles. So while average is a decent indicator, OBP is better.

*The Diamondbacks are an elite team judging by .SLG, so this is partially explained by their excellent power numbers.

** Similarly, the Mets have a mediocre .SLG percentage, so while they get on base, their runs are mostly scored by singles, depressing their offensive numbers. You can thank Citi Field for that.

[QUOTE="TaCoDuDe"]

[QUOTE="Master_Live"]OBP isn't everything. Master_Live

Yes, it is. Especially at the top of the order.

The same A's with the .312 and .315 OBP's at the top of their order?

[QUOTE="TaCoDuDe"]

[QUOTE="Ring_of_fire"] So, just because he for some reason bats Gonzalez #2, he's a "horrible manager"? Please. Breakdown of a recent lineup: 1. Jordan Schafer CF: Basically the only two players that fit this role are him and Nate McLouth, with Prado out (Who, btw, is not a true leadoff hitter) 2. Alex Gonzalez SS: Who I do agree that shouldn't be #2. If Fredi keeps him at #2, when Prado gets back, I'll be wondering if he's sane. 3. Brian McCann C: The Braves best hitter, overall. 4. Chipper Jones 3B: Still has some at bats in him, and Fredi is not going to disrespect him from moving him farther down in the lineup 5. Freddie Freeman 1B: Dude's been extremely hot recently, showing middle of the order potential in a year or two. 6. Dan Uggla 2B: Uggla has been struggling all year, but still hitting home runs. Ideally, he'd be 4th or 5th to protect Chipper and/or McCann. He's been getting better, but still has his problem 7. Jason Heyward RF: Another player who's been slumping. Sophmore slump+injury. A lot of people (Too many) want him to be the #2 hitter, due to his eye, and OBP potential. If the Braves want him to become the #3 hitter after Jones retires, batting him 6th would be a lot better than #2. Plus, with being in the 6 hole, uses his power better. 8. Nate McLouth LF-He struggled in the 2 spot, and doesn't have the speed, nor power to be in another position in the lineup. Plus, he;s done decently in the 8th hole, why change move him? The lineup isn't horrible. The only "problem" is that Gonzalez is #2, which should be done when Prado gets back. Here would be my lineup fro when Prado returns: 1. Schafer CF 2. Prado 3B (Jones is on the DL at the moment) 3. McCann C 4. Uggla 2B (Still is hitting for power.....Might respond well to being 4) 5. Freeman 1B 6. Heyward RF 7. Gonzalez SS 8. McLouth LF The Braves are not winning in spite of him. 10 of the last 12 games, Braves offense, with similar lineups as the one he's put out, have scored 4 or more runs in the game. That isn't a bad number. If anything, the Braves are winning despite injuries to key players, and other players struggling. He's not the best manager, but he's far from the worst.....Ring_of_fire

The Braves winning does not exempt Fredi from horrible decisions. At the two most important positions in the lineup, 1 and 2, he has two hitters with sub .300 OBP's. McLouth should be leading off, and Heyward or Chipper should be hitting second. And batting Heyward 6th to "prepare him to hit third" is ridiculous. You want your best hitters getting the most at-bats, and bad year or not, Heyward is one of our best hitters. Batting Schafer and Gonzalez 1-2 is a pretty egregious mistake at the top of a lineup. Does Fredi not understand OBP? The ideal lineup at this point would be:

McClouth

Heyward

Chipper (honestly, Chipper and Heyward should be flipped, but we all know that won't happen)

McCann

Freeman

Uggla

Gonzalez

Schafer

But the real problem with Fredi this year has been bullpen management. Because he stupidly sticks to strictly defined roles in the bullpen, weaker relievers are being routinely used in high leverage situations (Proctor). Jonny Venters (and O'Flaherty and Kimbrel) arm is being torn off thanks to him being used when we have 4 run leads because Fredi won't pitch him unless it's tied or we have a lead in the 7th or later. Bringing in Proctor, hardly a major league caliber pitcher, into extra innings before Kimbrel because "you can't pitch the closer unless it's a save situation". He's only recently figured out that Sherrill should only be used againt right handed hitters.

The Braves win in spite of him on an almost daily basis.

SSS for McClouth in either spot. And Schafer, really. You can pretty much only bat Schafer first or eighth given his lack of power. As far as batting Heyward 6th as opposed to 2nd, you get far more AB's in the 2 hole than the 6th. You want your best hitters getting the most AB's.

As far as using relief pitchers, the logic ought to be something to this effect:

You want your best pitchers pitching in the highest leverage situations. Bases loaded, first and second nobody out, tie game on the road in extras, etc. Withholding your best relief pitcher because you might have to hold a lead later makes no sense if you don't get out of the jam in the present. You can't use the bullpen based on what MIGHT happen. In this case, Kimbrel>Proctor, and Kimbrel should have been used to preserve the tie. He wasn't, and then he didn't have an opportunity to hold a lead because Proctor failed in the high leverage situation.

And I guess we can agree to disagree on whether or not Fredi is a bad manager. :P

OBP isn't everything. Master_Live

Yes, it is. Especially at the top of the order.