Like teebeenz said, the 360 doesn't have the best placement for disks. I rather it flat so less of a chance of a disk scratch though.
It isn't a bad thing to have it vertical, but it does have more of a chance of falling over and ruining your game.
You don't need online to play Oblivion. And this game probably has one of the best single player experiences ever.
I would say to get the 360. The LIVE price isn't too bad, even though I still think it should be free, but I think the 360 has the most games worth playing right now.
Gears of War is a perfect game to start off with a 360. I would go with the Elite if you want to spend the extra money.
Go with the longer ethernet cable. The connection will be in no way be slower and too many things can go wrong with a wireless adaptor.
I say if you enjoyed GHII get it then when GHIII comes out just get the disk instead of the guitar bundle.
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