In 1990, I was a teenager dialing into Bulletin Board Systems. Much like the "BBS"es that can still be found on the internet, the 1990s BBSes included a set of forums. And as far as social media went, that was all I could get hold of.
Since then the internet has exploded. Computers are cheaper, more powerful, and easier to setup than 20 years ago. I can download millions of bits per second—instead of a few hundred—making it possible to do video streaming, on-line shopping, and a host of things we could only read about in science-fiction novels.
But despite technological advances that have made a teenager's wet dreams a reality, and even though the technology is 200% different, the forums themselves haven't changed. Okay these days we have graphics and fancy fonts, whereas I had to contend with ASCII art, ANSI colours, and the occasional monochromatic gif; but the series of sequential posts, organised by topic, with their lame one line replies, is the same as ever. Ditto the trolls, the sock puppets, and the flame wars.
It's kinda like the how LCD- and Plasma- televisions have replaced ye olde Cathode Ray Tubes, without the behaviour changes. And reflecting on that leads me to two conclusions.
Firstly, it's the changes in the technology that have driven the changes in the internet. And that's gonna continue to be the case. Media commentators like to get together and plan the future of the web, but that's like trees attempting to plan continental drift; it's what happens underneath—perhaps at the level transistors—that will determine what happens to the net. Speculating about the “semantic web” is nice, but what happens when my coke can has a computer in it?
Secondly, despite all these changes, most of today's formats will be around tomorrow. In twenty years every T-shirt may be a wireless TV-screen (eat that MPAA), video messaging could be prosaically everyday, and your nan may spend her retirement in a virtual world fighting dragons. But there will still be sites where short text messages are organised by topic, allowing someone to note that a previous post made them "LoL". You see forum's – they're forever. ;)
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