With Nintendo out of the running (see earlier post), what will decide the outcome of the next generation console wars? Here's part two of my prediction. I claim that:
Sony will dominate first party titles (again): Microsoft has worked hard to build it's own portfolio, but the number of franchises built by Sony over two generations of market leadership tips the scales in its favour.
Third party support will favour the Xbox in the short term (again): The PS2 was difficult to develop for. It's easy to see why more high profile PC titles came out on the more powerful and developer friendly Xbox. Sony's worked hard to level the playing field, but the introduction of it's (seriously) multicore processor yet again leaves developers confused.
Third party support may favour the PS3 in the long term: In five years, no one will develop software for single core processors. Premium cross-platform titles already look better on high spec PC:s than the 360. If (and I say if) the PS3 is a more powerful platform than the 360, it may be easier to port PC games to the PS3 in a few years.
Wireless is largely a hygiene factor: It's 2006, of course controllers and network connections is expected, even demanded. Both consoles are all the way wireless, so it won't be a factor.
Sony will copy Xbox Live and even out the score: Online gaming didn't become a wide spread phenomenon during the current generation. It was an era of wires and dial-up and hassle. In the coming generation, it will be easy, wireless and expected. Microsoft has a head start, but the online service is so easy to copy, that it won't be a real competitive factor. The size of the system's installed base will decide the strength of its online community.
Windows Vista is important: With a Media Center built in to every copy of Windows shipping post 2006, running TV through your computer will become a reality for a growing number of gamers and the 360 will quickly become the extender of choice. The PS3 will not.
We don't know what the console OS of the ps3 will offer us. So you can't really make that assumption yet. I hope it's something like the PSP. :D
High capacity disc will make or break the PS3: People will buy HDTV:s in mass over the next couple of years. High capacity disc players will be expensive, and anyone who's interested in both games and video will think long and hard before ditching the PS3 for an Xbox. Establish Blu-ray as the de facto standard and Sony's in good health. HD-DVD and there's trouble all over.
OK guys, your turn. Just to let you all know before you lay into me: I own a PS2 and an Xbox 360. I have every intention of getting both the PS3 and the Revolution. What do you think will decide the war?
matteno1
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