I don't think it's anywhere as complicated or nuanced as you make it out. Even if the hardware is 'worth' the cost, they still have all their work ahead of them converting the technology into an attractive sale.
The 3DS had it's compulsory price drop at about this time in its life - the Vita too would benefit from this. If they don't try something like that, then it's hard to sympathize with the Vita dept. at Sony.
so_hai's comments