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Halo: Reach to push September sales up 2.4% - Analyst

Wedbush's Michael Pachter projects $665 million in sales, boost from Bungie shooter tempered by $100 million slide in rhythm genre.

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After three straight months of declining game software sales, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter believes Bungie's Halo: Reach finally pushed the industry into positive territory for September. The prediction was included in a note Pachter sent to investors today detailing his expectations for the NPD Group's September sales figures (set to be released Thursday).

Pachter predicts Halo: Reach will salvage software sales growth.
Pachter predicts Halo: Reach will salvage software sales growth.

Based on the strength of Halo: Reach, Pachter projected US retail software sales for September to hit $665 million, a 2.4 percent increase over September 2009's total. That increase would be larger were it not for expected declines in the music genre. While top 10 sales performances by Guitar Hero 5 and Rock Band: The Beatles last year helped bolster the flagging genre, Pachter believes Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock managed to sell only 100,000 units for the month. Overall, Pachter expected rhythm genre sales to be down more than $100 million for the month, from $116 million to just $15 million.

Beyond Halo: Reach, Pachter expects the month's best-selling new releases to include Dead Rising 2 and FIFA Soccer 11. As for Sony's PlayStation Move, he predicted "modest" launch sales for the PS3's motion-sensing controller.

Pachter also believes Sid Meier's Civilization V on the PC sold through 350,000 copies, although those numbers won't be included in the console- and handheld-only NPD gaming charts. September numbers will also benefit from continued strong sales of Madden NFL 11 and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Pachter believes, with the analyst expecting EA's pigskin sim to have moved 725,000 copies during the month.

While Pachter didn't put a dollar amount on hardware sales, he did project the number of consoles and handhelds sold to be down 18 percent. He was particularly pessimistic on console sales for the near future, as August and September of 2009 saw price cuts for all major systems, driving late 2009's hardware sales up significantly. Sales of Sony's Move and Microsoft's Kinect Xbox 360 camera may compensate somewhat, but Pachter noted that only the hardware bundles will count toward the NPD Group's hardware sales total. The industry-tracking group will count Microsoft's $150 Kinect camera and Sony's $100 Move controller starter kit as accessory sales rather than hardware.

September may be as good as the industry gets for the rest of the year. Pachter said he expects October sales to be up "only slightly," with November and December sales both sliding year-over-year. For the full year, he predicts console and handheld sales to end up down, with those losses offset by growth in the PC gaming market thanks to Blizzard Entertainment's Starcraft II and World of Warcraft: Cataclysm.

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Trogeton

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and the sales are still growing..watch after Christmas.. Ive seen SOO many gamers and profiles saying they are getting it for Christmas.. so the sales are gonna be even more massive and I think this will be the biggest and fastest selling game of 2010

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SicklySunStorm

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@Sirbobislost. yeah, it was Sega ;) *ahem* ha ha

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Sirbobislost

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@ swamptick The console war was over a while ago and the winner isn't Microsoft or Sony...

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SicklySunStorm

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@TTDog - even I couldn't resist cracking a smile at that whilst looking at your avatar pic. touche sir, touche ;)

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GICobraBlack

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I own all three systems. So I can enjoy everything. but don't play the wii much. its a win win for me. Halo reach has to be in the running for game of the year so far. what a great game.

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Colonel-Snake

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@RunRickyRun Well in my opinion Ricky I always tend to stick to one console and I choose the PS3 because it has the most exclusives that appeals to me. Multiplatform games are called Multiplatform because they are on more then 1 system which is why when someone always bring that nonsense into a debate I tend to not even listen. End of the day Exclusive titles is what will shine and is always the selling point in most consoles. I don't think I'm missing much from the 360. End of the day what doesn't kill Sony in the Gaming industry hopefully it makes them improve and make better decision in the future. The Wii wins only in Sales honestly and thats about it. A LOT of people are very disappointed in Nintendo for the lack of hardcore games. Honestly Nintendo got lucky this generation because of Sony mistakes. Anyway the "winner" would be the person who purchase the console. If you bought your console and enjoy every second of it then you my friend are the true winner. End of the day I guarantee you nobody on here has stocks for either Sony, Microsoft, or Nintendo so I could care less who wins. As long as they Sony makes good games like they are doing then they can keep losing I guess in my opinion they have pushed the best Exclusives this Generation.

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monson21502

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halo 3 is the best game this gen by far

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TTDog

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@SicklySunStorm: In which case I can only presume that one cell is feeling very poorly today.

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SicklySunStorm

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@TTdog - I think you're missing the point I was making. Blackace was looking at it from the point of view of a 2 horse race - 360 VS PS3. He stated that even if the ps3 overtook the 360, it would still be "behind it" in 2nd place, which is nonsense. If you read what i said carefully, I acknowledged that the Wii was way ahead, and by Blackace's logic, that would make the Wii the winner... which it is, in sales only. It's certainly not mine, or most gamer's favoured choice of console. It's the king of casual and that's it. Oh and I have far more than half a braincell, I have at least 2....so let's not resort to insults shall we? I don't insult others, I make fair points without resorting to such silly things.

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MrHatnClogs

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@BigStik I didn't buy it, I wasn't planning on buying it until the holidays and the only reason why I'm playing it now is my younger brother ended up renting it from blockbuster.

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delta3074

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Halo has become a super franchise,wears it's undies on the outside of it's trousers,lol

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rockstar_88

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@ DS-fan_atic You, sir, must be a very lucky person to own all three consoles. It's not because you have the income to pay for it, but because you have time to play with all of them. I myself could afford to own all three if I wanted to, but for many people, especially me, the more money you have, the less time you have to spend on fun, and time is not something you can gain back once it's lost.

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RunRickyRun

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@ DS-fan_atic Not many people can afford to own all 3 consoles, especially if you want to keep your gaming PC up to date. Although PC gaming has slipped in recent years it definitely offers better precision and graphics for shooters and is the ownly way to go for RTS games. Personally I feel no need to own the Xbox360 because with my PC and PS3 I have access to virtually every important game that has been relased on the X360 other than last few Halo games which might eventually find their way to PC anyway. Saves me that ridiculous $60 a year Xbox live fee too, which is probably the biggest reason I can't convince myself to buy a Xbox360.

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TTDog

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@SicklySunStorm: If the PS3 overtook the 360 it wouldn't still be in 2nd place... it would have moved up from 3rd to second... still way behind the Wii... it's not difficult to understand, not for someone with half a braincell.

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DS_fan_atic

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ahhh...the beauty of owning all three consoles, you guys should really try it. Although I think you get most of your entertainment by 'defending' your particular favourite.

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SicklySunStorm

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@blackace - what you said is very contradictory "Cows have been saying the PS3 will take pass the XBox 360 ever since it launched. Four years later and it still hasn't happened. Even if it did, the PS3 would still be 2nd and would still lose this generation. 1st is the only position that really matters when all is said and done." If the PS3 overtook the 360, then how would it still be 2nd? That doesn't even make sense.... and 1st position does indeed matter if you're talking about a sport maybe, but when comparing industries, not at all really. All it means is who has sold most - not necessarily at all does it reveal whether or not those in 2nd place and below are still making a good profit and therefore have a very valid business venture. And besides - if you use your own logic, and only first matters, then I'm sorry but the 360 is so far behind the Wii, it can't even see it.... and that to me sounds wrong. Wii is ahead on sales and that's it, as a console it doesn't match up to the other two IMO. I personally love all 3, but my PS3 the most.... it's just very flawed logic you're displaying to get your point across. We get it that you love the 360 and don't like the PS3, but your reasons for doing so are all so muddled and confused, I'm surprised you know yourself why you like the 360... *sigh*

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Fajonkel

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I can't really say this is that surprising. Halo Reach was mildly decent while I had it, but not enough for me to keep it, so I've already sold it. This is good news for 360 sales though.

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bluefire1360

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Next weeks news - "Stupid analysts who don't even play games getting exposure on gamespot turn out to be completely wrong as usual!"

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swamptick

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Like it or not, day after day after day, Xbox 360 dominates the top 10 games and dominates software sales. This console war is over.

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StArDr1fTeR

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I really don't care what console is better. Every console has its own to offer... and that is why I own them all. This report really means nothing to me. They aren't going to stop making games and consoles will come as well. I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

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GeneralShowzer

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@amaan4ever He hates it because he doesn't own it and can't play all the awesome exclusives. He's stuck with Halo until Q4 2011.

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amaan4ever

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@ blackace why are u hattin on the ps3 so much. I am a ps3 fanboy but i respect the xbox360 . Ur just talking bulls**t about the ps3 for no reason

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theonlyway316

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reach is going to blow hard on line comunity is going to die once black ops comes out.

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wiidsduelpack

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Halo: Reach has sold about 5 million, which should boost 360 sales up by a lot. Nothing new on other consoles or software except the DS price cut. Xbox 360 and DS up/ Wii, PS3, and PSP down Sounds about right.

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Bevmo

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Halo: Reach campaign=7/10 Halo: Reach matchmaking=7/10 HALO REACH CUSTOM GAMES AND FORGE=55/10! I LOVE THIS GAME TOO MUCH! FORGING IS INSANELY ADDICTIVE ON THIS GAME AND DOWNRIGHT AMAZING!

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harry_daniel200

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if u r a multiplayer guy then reach is the best thing that can happen to you

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harry_daniel200

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buy this only for multiplayer............dont expect anyting frm its campaign....................please,this is not an insult.........i am a diehard halo fan.......i dont want people to waste their hard earned dollars on sumthingwich they think isnt

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Kokuro_Kun

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MS the one trick horse strikes again.

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okassar

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Lol @ Pachter, he's only right when his predictions are obvious, and even then his numbers might be off here anyway, I'm a jet-pack addicted noob now. I frikkin fly everywhere and get cheap headshots above people now lmao this is not going to get old for a very long time all the pros sprint but that's lame

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SuprSaiyanRockr

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I've got to admit, I probably wouldn't have bought WOW immediately if there wasn't a chance to win one of 200 double passes to the Aussie metallica tour. ...I won. :D

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Poodger

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@Colonel-Snake Yes, I live in the U.S., and yes, I am aware of this, but the circle of people I know do not purchase these games, and I know alot of people. I am very aware of Halo's popularity here, but I was just pointing out that in my personal experience, it has not been very popular at all.

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Gruug

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I bougth it. Played the campaign. Couldn't get into any MP games, haven't been back to it in at least two weeks. Don't have any reason to either. Game was "ok" but seemed short. Can't comment on MP since I was unable to connect to any games for some reason (can all other MP games just not Halo Reach). Anyway, this game is nothing to get too excited about IMO.

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Colonel-Snake

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@Poodger If you live in the United States then there will be a lot of people who buy Halo since Halo is mainly dominant in the United States. Its known also in Europe but the main area of the world it sells at would be the United States so if you live in the US i'm pretty sure there are people around you who buy Halo you just don't know who they are yet.

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lilboicookie

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why am i not chocked

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Poodger

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Really? I mean, honestly, I don't know ANYONE that is buying this game. Then again, in my whole life, I have only ever known 2 people that have owned any of the Halo games. Whoever is buying all these games from this series, they must not live anywhere near me.

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BigStik

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I don't think there will that many people buying Halo: Reach this month. I mean, how many of us didn't buy it within the first week of release?

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PixelAddict

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Why do they continue to give this Pachter clown exposure. He's always wrong. Watch the numbers come out and everything be opposite or not remotely close.

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Flint247

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Halo Reach rox my sox.

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themyth01

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Amazing how powerful a single game can be in this industry. Halo power.

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Waldkrieger

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Just two days ago they said sales were down. This is why all these Analysts are full of hogwash. Never satisfied and get paid to set around doing nothing. Shut up and get a real job.

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inaka_rob

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Soon they are going to report on DAY to DAY fluctuations. They are treating the video game market like commodities. Oh my god!!! this month last year people bought 100 more games. Rhythm games didn't have any new releases last month, sales of all games dropped by an astounding 2%. Guess what. people bought games yesterday. they are going to buy games tomorrow. Its not oil. Games are not going to run out. I dont know why they treat this news as.... news.

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Agent_StarFire

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yay lets all be happy microsoft just made like 100s of millions of more while the price of xbox live is increasing! Anyways fun game hopefully game sales will beggin to increase thanks to lots of quality games.

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FanFicGuru

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NEWSFLASH: Another first-person shooter carries Microsoft profits. More at 11.

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Colonel-Snake

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@Shafe-man Sorry mate you got some information wrong. DS is indeed the best selling Gaming handheld but it hasn't sold more then the Wii, Xbox, and PS3 Combined... Of course the 3DS is suppose to be better then the current handhelds because it is brand new lol. It sold around 135 million worldwide apparently. If you was to combine all the sales of the consoles it would reach around 140mil and maybe a bit more.

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pest-x

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@monson21502 Ok, sorry then, I now understand what you we're saying

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Colonel-Snake

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3DS will most likely top everything. The PSP2 should do well also without a doubt. The only thing sad about this generation is the trolls and fanboys lol. Last generation I barely seen arguments about consoles and the games. Gamers truly have taken a step backwards this generation.

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mils2000

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[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

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shafe-man

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@pest-x Are you implying that consoles sell more than handhelds? The DS has sold more than the Wii, Xbox, and PS3 COMBINED! Come on man, get your facts straight. And the 3DS will top the charts; even if it was a DS with a third camera strapped onto it would. New console > current consoles. It's a way of life. And the 3DS is better than all the current handhelds, and although I prefer consoles over handhelds for games like FPS's and action games, handhelds are the way to go for everything else. Including some action games too. ;)

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TheArcade

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@blackace: I believe it's been 5 years since the 360 came out going on 6, and the PS3 still has yet to lap the 360.

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