NPD Sales for October

[QUOTE="HiResDes"]Well the 360 is still doing really good, I don't know what all the fuss is about, if the 360 maintains 300K or over for every single month from now on that would be an enormous accomplishment. Wrap your heads around this, the 360 has already surpassed the total sales of its predecessor in only 2 years time.F1Lengend

I thought xbox sold 25-30 mil...im not sure what you mean

Oh lol, I was looking at the numbers in Japan only, my bad.

Xbox 360: 474,000

Xbox: 473,000

Good question... not sure, maybe just barely the Wii might make it. But you are right no 100 million. But this is a gen where I expect the 2 and 3 spot to do so much better than past gens, I expect all consoles to sell well over 35 million worldwide. The market is so big now that three different consoles can live healthy together.

dvader654

I disagree, I think the Wii will have staying power. I mean if it sold this much with nothing but crap games, why would it stop selling when it's getting quality titles?

However I think that the PS3 and 360 will do well also.

See to me the Wii and PS3/360 are in two totally different worlds. The types of games they offer are different, the way the games are played are different, and just the overall experience of both are different. So thus they appeal to two totally different types of people.

Developers would be foolish not to harnass both systems.

In one realm you have the fastest selling gaming system of all-time with dirt cheap development costs. Releasing the right game on it could do wonder with sales.

In the other realm you have 2 next gen powerhouses. The best part of this is that multiplatform is very common for both systems. The Xbox 360 moves software like no other system as of current and the PS3 may be slow in that area as of now but one cannot ignore the extra boost it gives you.

Either way you will be swimming in alot of sales as long as you play your cards right and developers/publishers definately won't be stupid enough to pass this opportunity up. So I expect alot of developer support for all systems as well as sales performance.

[QUOTE="dvader654"]

Just noticed the MP3 numbers, yikes its dying so fast, come on wii owners :( .

EdgecrusherAza

I'm convinced at this point, that Metroid will forever be a the biggest AAA niche franchise out there. Something just holds it back from Zelda-like popularity.

Well, where to start?

Okay, so it should be totally obvious that the goal that everyone should be striving for from a software standpoint is the mystical city of Playstationtwoville. The hard part about looking at numbers is that there haven't beena whole lot of super high profile titles that came out on all three systems. The last game to do it was Madden, and the system that most closely resembled the PS2 with that game was the 360. With this month, it's Guitar Hero, which is simply white-hot. It's a perfect benchmark for taking the lie of the land, because everyone wants this game it seems. This month it was the PS2 that most resembled the PS2, but the 360, with, like, 1/12 the base, sold almost the same amount of copies. This is simply huge, but isn't necessarily big news if you've been following software sales, as the 360 base is voracious when it comes to software. The Wii really broke the mold this month, showing that people do indeed buy 3rd party games on the platform, and it wasn't all that terribly far off from the 360, and it has about 70 percent of the base the 360 has here in North America. The most interesting number was the PS3 version, which, to put it nicely, sold pretty horribly compared to the others. This is not the first month that I've scratched my head wondering what exactly people are buying the system for if it isn't to play games on it. This is a seriously bad sign, because the first thing the PS3's software numbers remind me of is the PSP.

And while I generally don't get too excited about a game bombing, Ratchet & Clank's seventy-something-thousand debut is just absolutely vile. What is wrong with you people? Don't get me wrong, I never expected Ratchet to be some kind of a system seller or anything, but I DID expect it to sell well enough. Sure, there was only like 11 days of tracked sales for the game, and it could pick up over time, but it's doubtful. It's not just a Ratchet thing, and it's not just a Guitar Hero thing. It's a PS3 owner thing, and for whatever reason, the base simply isn't buying games in the numbers that a 2 million-strong base should be.

It's not all bad for the PS3, though. The tracking data only picked up something like two days of the new 40 gig sku numbers, and according to Sony, they sold like 75, 000 in the first day or two. So does that mean that they only sold 60,000 through the rest of the month? It's certainly possible. Sony should've just released the damn 40 gig when it broke that it was coming, because while I don't get paid to write this stuff, I'd wager a teste that it didn't help sales. Still, we don't know exactly what's going to happen next month. My gut says that the numbers will be much, much better for Sony next month, but that's becoming less and less the problem. The problem is that games are not selling, and they need to get this dialed in, and fast.

On the 360 front, I'm going to say that this was a pretty poor month for them considering that their biggest game just came out. 366,000 isn't a bad number, and it's a far cry from where they've been for most of '07, but when you look at the underlying factors, it isn't too rosy. They've just pressed the nuke button, and while it was great for a month, it's looking like more of the same for them from here on. It isn't just Halo, though. The 360 has every popular third-party game and a bunch of exclusives. This thing should be flying off the shelves. But its strongest suit is, as always, software sales. It's just fascinating to watch a base eat up games, and that's one thing the 360 base does exceedingly well.

Now let's look at the Wii, which sold 500,000+ systems on the month PRIOR to Mario Galaxy hitting. I don't know what to say anymore, folks, other than this has gone on long enough now to be officially a trend and not a fad. The Wii is bat-poop crazy popular, and the thing is, there really isn't a whole lot to play on it. What happens when Galaxy gets tallied next month and a base that appreciates great games (read: not Japan) gets to appreciate it? What happens when one of best-selling games of last-gen shows up early next year in Smash Brothers Brawl? I hated the last two Smash Bros., and I'm sure I'll hate brawl, but no one is more aware than me that I'm going to be in the minority here. And that's not even getting into the non-games that are coming, like Wii Fit. The Wii is just absolutely blazing along, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that (assuming nothing changes this holiday season), at this point, and given where the competition is, it's over. The race is now for second.

Developers would be foolish not to harnass both systems.

Gunraidan

PS3 :shock:

*gasp*

And how does Halo 3 keep racking up sales numbers? Do people buy two of them per household?

ASK_Story

Lol, because it's apparently a frikin' LAW to buy halo 3 if you own a working 360.

[QUOTE="Gunraidan"]

Developers would be foolish not to harnass both systems.

Teufelhuhn

In a world where publishers have a lot of control, this sort of direct distribution for developers can be a great addition in the world of consoles, like it has been for PC gaming for a while.

Or, they're simply not in a position to target both systems from a resource perspective. Not everybody is EA/Ubi and can afford to throw new teams at different consoles. For a lot of smaller devs its probably going to be one or the other.
Teufelhuhn

Well in terms of small devs. the Wii's the obvious choice since it has much less development costs, and by the signs of Grasshopper, Vanillaware, Luc Benards, Team 17, Seeds, and what not it seems like the primary console for small developers. I actually can't think of any PS3 or 360 games going to retail by small developers (I know there are probably some they just don't come to my mind as of now).

Also I was referring to big developer in my post, guess it's my fault for not making that more clear.

Hopefully the likes of the DD aspect of each system can help. XBL, PSN, and WiiWare should allow smaller devs to make smaller scale projects for platforms, remove a lot of added costs, and have games available for a wide audience easily.

In a world where publishers have a lot of control, this sort of direct distribution for developers can be a great addition in the world of consoles, like it has been for PC gaming for a while.

Skylock00

IMO DD isn't the answer. The storage space is just far too small (250 MB?) and those who usually buy games for them just want pick up and play games. It's the reason why you don't see any new full games on the platform. I mean a game like No More Heroes, Oboro Muramasa, Eternity's Child (was actually moved to the Wii because it couldn't fit in XBLA), and Kings Story can't be done in DD. I agree with you in the terms of indie developers but in terms of small developers DD just isn't the answer.

[QUOTE="Teufelhuhn"]

Or, they're simply not in a position to target both systems from a resource perspective. Not everybody is EA/Ubi and can afford to throw new teams at different consoles. For a lot of smaller devs its probably going to be one or the other.
Gunraidan

Well in terms of small devs. the Wii's the obvious choice since it has much less development costs, and by the signs of Grasshopper, Vanillaware, Luc Benards, Team 17, and what not it seems like the primary console for small developers.

Also I was referring to big developer in my post, guess it's my fault for not making that more clear.

It's completely understandable why some devs simply don't have the resources to turn from working on the 360/PS3, and develop something meaningful for the Wii, both in terms of manpower, and money.

However, Teufelhuhn made a point (I think) earlier that some of these devs might have recently invested a lot of money into game engines that simply can't run on the Wii, making developing for the Wii all of a sudden to be an option that isn't viable at all for the time being.

It's completely understandable why some devs simply don't have the resources to turn from working on the 360/PS3, and develop something meaningful for the Wii, both in terms of manpower, and money.

Skylock00

I see what you mean.

Hopefully the likes of the DD aspect of each system can help. XBL, PSN, and WiiWare should allow smaller devs to make smaller scale projects for platforms, remove a lot of added costs, and have games available for a wide audience easily.

In a world where publishers have a lot of control, this sort of direct distribution for developers can be a great addition in the world of consoles, like it has been for PC gaming for a while.

Skylock00

Indeed, it'd be nice to see developers embrace DD more openly. I've been hearing about a lot of devs being "1 flop away from bankrupt", and it'd be great for them to have less expensive alternatives where they can still leverage their current resources.
Teufelhuhn

The only major question is what is the relationship between developer and hardware manufacturer like? Supposedly Nintendo's being relatively hands off, and according to some murmurings (not sure they're true), some devs claim that it's easier to get a game approved by Nintendo for WiiWare than for XBLA, and they're actually being more involved with devs than they have been in the past.

Regardless, though, of all the advancements this generation is bringing, DD is probably one of the best (and worst) additions. Best in terms of offering devs an inexpensive solution to getting lower budget titles to users at more affordable pricing...and the worst due to the exploitation of some publishers/devs in regards to overcharging for either DD software, or for DLC for games that range from asinine (paying to add content/modes shortly after a game's release) to flat out ridiculous (paying to get fake money in The Godfather).

I find it interesting that the attach rate for Guitar Hero III for the Wii and 360 is nearly identical. I wouldn't get too excited though. The thing is that Guitar Hero has almost universal appeal, so it's not like the Wii demographic is behind in any aspect. It's also not a game that needs a graphically intensive experience, so it wasn't at a huge disadvantage to the 360 version. For multiplatform games where the visual quality is important, the 360 will likely still have an edge in terms of attach rate. But the Wii is poised to pass the 360's installed base, and pass it fast. At what point does the Wii's fan base simply pass the 360 by a wide enough margin that there's simply more money in a Wii version? I think most publishers for projects getting started will lean towards the Wii, thanks to its ability to outsell the competition regardless of the software it presents.

This generation has been really interesting, because it's exposed something that's different from what we used to believe. It used to be that the best games won, period. Well, the 360 has the best games. And that's not going to change until after third parties have firmly shifted over to the Wii (they'd be crazy not to start now). The Wii has shown that's only a part truth. The important thing is gameplay. In the past, games were 100% of the gameplay, but with the Wii, control method has become a part of it. It's not "playing tennis sounds fun", it's "swinging a controller like a tennis racket sounds fun". It's not that this gameplay is fundamentally better; it's just more appealing. And that is why five basic sports games have essentially single-handedly taken down the Halo 3 system.

I find it interesting that the attach rate for Guitar Hero III for the Wii and 360 is nearly identical. I wouldn't get too excited though. The thing is that Guitar Hero has almost universal appeal, so it's not like the Wii demographic is behind in any aspect. It's also not a game that needs a graphically intensive experience, so it wasn't at a huge disadvantage to the 360 version. For multiplatform games where the visual quality is important, the 360 will likely still have an edge in terms of attach rate. But the Wii is poised to pass the 360's installed base, and pass it fast. At what point does the Wii's fan base simply pass the 360 by a wide enough margin that there's simply more money in a Wii version? I think most publishers for projects getting started will lean towards the Wii, thanks to its ability to outsell the competition regardless of the software it presents.

This generation has been really interesting, because it's exposed something that's different from what we used to believe. It used to be that the best games won, period. Well, the 360 has the best games. And that's not going to change until after third parties have firmly shifted over to the Wii (they'd be crazy not to start now). The Wii has shown that's only a part truth. The important thing is gameplay. In the past, games were 100% of the gameplay, but with the Wii, control method has become a part of it. It's not "playing tennis sounds fun", it's "swinging a controller like a tennis racket sounds fun". It's not that this gameplay is fundamentally better; it's just more appealing. And that is why five basic sports games have essentially single-handedly taken down the Halo 3 system.

Oilers99

Outselling the competition is nice, but audience taste is at least as important as hardware sales. The PS2 outsold the Xbox 3 to 1 and had a year's headstart and boasted a higher attach ratio, but that didn't impress fps makers because no fps on the PS2 put up Halo type numbers (and the early PS2 had a pretty kickbutt fps in the form of Red Faction).

Nintendo itself is acting as if the Wii's audience is a mix of newly minted fans of waggle heavy minigames and longtime, hardcore Nintendo fans. Why should 3rd parties be any different?

I think declaring the Wii as the winner of the console wars for this generation is a bit premature ...and a lot misleading. While the Wii might surpass the 360 in units sold, it's questionable that it will surpass it in terms of hardware $$$ spent by consumers. Also, in terms of software it appears that the Wii will come nowhere close. GH3 as an example of 3rd party software selling on the Wii is a special case. I doubt any 3rd party dev who intends to work on some new shooter or rpg will see GH3 sales as an indication of their potential success in developing for the Wii. Aside from the occasional minigame, rhythm game, or puzzle, the Wii will continue to be viewed as a vehicle for Nintendo alone to make $$$.

The way I see it, the 360 has and will win the console wars from the perspective of software sales and 3rd party support. I think optimism about the PS3 price cut is premature. Once again, software should be the indicator of choice, and softwareindicates that the PS3 is little more than a dead system. I think 3rd party devs and future system buyers will see it that way. Anyone who wants to make money on software this generation knows they have to publish on the 360.

I say this as a fan and owner of none of these systems.

I think declaring the Wii as the winner of the console wars for this generation is a bit premature ...and a lot misleading. While the Wii might surpass the 360 in units sold, it's questionable that it will surpass it in terms of hardware $$$ spent by consumers. Also, in terms of software it appears that the Wii will come nowhere close. GH3 as an example of 3rd party software selling on the Wii is a special case. I doubt any 3rd party dev who intends to work on some new shooter or rpg will see GH3 sales as an indication of their potential success in developing for the Wii. Aside from the occasional minigame, rhythm game, or puzzle, the Wii will continue to be viewed as a vehicle for Nintendo alone to make $$$.

The way I see it, the 360 has and will win the console wars from the perspective of software sales and 3rd party support. I think optimism about the PS3 price cut is premature. Once again, software should be the indicator of choice, and softwareindicates that the PS3 is little more than a dead system. I think 3rd party devs and future system buyers will see it that way. Anyone who wants to make money on software this generation knows they have to publish on the 360.

I say this as a fan and owner of none of these systems.

ymi_basic

Well, there's so many different ways to call something a "win," but I'm really beginning to think that hardware-wise, it's done. You have a system pushing halfa million units with no key game to spur that growth -- in October. What's November and December going to look like for the Wii?

There's winning through software, which the 360 has done thus far, but the Wii held its own with Guitar Hero, which makes me think that developers are seeing potential here (although Madden Wii didn't do so well at all). The thing is that the basics show where the problems are: System power has never equated to mass market dominance. And the system with the largest installed base always gets not only the lion's share of the games, but the lion's share of software sales as well.

The other problem is that the symbiotic relationship between the PS3 and the 360 isn't being held up on the PS3's end enough. As bad as it sounds, the PS3 benefits from the 360 doing well and vice-versa, because the similarities between the two platforms make them almost a single platform in a developer's eyes, or at least, that's the way I'd see it. Right now, the PS3 needs the 360, and the 360 needs the PS3.I think these are scary days in a lot of ways for publishers, and I think they really don't care which platform wins per se, only that they have games on it when it happens. If concurrent 360/PS3 development becomes the most viable revenue source for developers, I don't think we'd hear too much complaining about it. Then again, they sure aren't going to complain about the Wii either, (IF it becomes viable to them) as it costs less to develop on.

That's where the problem is, though -- what does win mean anymore? Is it moving the most systems? The most software? Having the highest attach rate? All the above? Using the above gets a different system with each answer.

Shamus you seriously are like one of the best posters ever when it comes to analyzing the industry. :)Gunraidan

As UpInFlames would say, "add yetanother male groupie to the list"

I'm confused how anyone is spinning the Wii or 360 numbers as negatives? I thought the majority of the people on this board felt that the majority of the Halo 3 sales would fall around that initial launch window. That most of the people that were waiting for Halo 3 were already 360 owners. That's what I remember on these forums. I think the numbers support that. The fact is that Halo 3 still came out as the number one game sold last month and the total numbers sold to date are outstanding. How is that a negative?

This generation will have one console sell more hardware units and one sell more software from what I can see. I think that falls in line with the segment each is targeting. Nintendo has targeted the casual crowd. While the Wii user base includes the Nintendo faithful that will purchase Galaxy, Corruption, Zelda and Brawl, I don't see the other portion of the Wii users purchasing the number of titles that the MS user base has demonstrated over the past five years. MS has made a concerted effort to target the 18-45 demographic with tons of disposable income. The guys that don't have a problem going out and purchasing one or two titles a month. The guys that look for the big releases and will stand out in line for them. The Wii userbase doesn't have that same amount of people with that mentality. The retirement homes that have purchased a Will don't care about Corruption or Brawl. Wii Sports/Play and Wii Fit are all they need. The people that purchased the Wii as a party console aren't intending on getting an average of a game a month at fifty dollars a pop. The NPD numbers bear that out. I believe that as the Wii user base grows, there will be more third party games that do extremely well on the console. I just don't think that the numbers will surpass the 360 software numbers to divert titles away from the 360. I also don't believe that we'll see a huge difference in the number of Wii consoles bought compared to the 360 like we did with the PS2 and the other two combined in this past generation.

I'm confused how anyone is spinning the Wii or 360 numbers as negatives? I thought the majority of the people on this board felt that the majority of the Halo 3 sales would fall around that initial launch window. That most of the people that were waiting for Halo 3 were already 360 owners. That's what I remember on these forums. I think the numbers support that. The fact is that Halo 3 still came out as the number one game sold last month and the total numbers sold to date are outstanding. How is that a negative?

This generation will have one console sell more hardware units and one sell more software from what I can see. I think that falls in line with the segment each is targeting. Nintendo has targeted the casual crowd. While the Wii user base includes the Nintendo faithful that will purchase Galaxy, Corruption, Zelda and Brawl, I don't see the other portion of the Wii users purchasing the number of titles that the MS user base has demonstrated over the past five years. MS has made a concerted effort to target the 18-45 demographic with tons of disposable income. The guys that don't have a problem going out and purchasing one or two titles a month. The guys that look for the big releases and will stand out in line for them. The Wii userbase doesn't have that same amount of people with that mentality. The retirement homes that have purchased a Will don't care about Corruption or Brawl. Wii Sports/Play and Wii Fit are all they need. The people that purchased the Wii as a party console aren't intending on getting an average of a game a month at fifty dollars a pop. The NPD numbers bear that out. I believe that as the Wii user base grows, there will be more third party games that do extremely well on the console. I just don't think that the numbers will surpass the 360 software numbers to divert titles away from the 360. I also don't believe that we'll see a huge difference in the number of Wii consoles bought compared to the 360 like we did with the PS2 and the other two combined in this past generation.

Ghost_Face

Retirement homes are not the typical buyers(I am sure it is not even a single percentage point)of the Wii and to hint that they are sounds a little like calling the Wii a fad, and sounds like a comment from "another" board. To think that those who play video games before the Wii are not buying Wii's makes me wonder why even in stores that only sale videogame stuff (gamestop, etc) are sold out just like walmarts.

Software sales for the 360 in the US are good there is no denying but this is only in the US most 3rd party develpers are global compnaies and in Japan and Europe the 360 is no where near what it is here. And hte Wii is a runaway success in every market. I know gamers in north america like to pretend the other markets don't matter but money is money(or maybe its euro is euros). And lets not forget the higher production cost of producing a 360 game compared to a Wii. A Wii game will not have to sale as much to make a profit but I am sure developers will ignore that because it al revolves around software sales in NOrth AMerica. AFter all less 3td party companies are developing for the Wii this year then they were last year at this time.

The only thing the 360 got going for it is software sales in NOrth America a month after its biggest game is released(along with other great titles)and no negatives about this??? Right.

Retirement homes are not the typical buyers(I am sure it is not even a single percentage point)of the Wii and to hint that they are sounds a little like calling the Wii a fad, and sounds like a comment from "another" board. To think that those who play video games before the Wii are not buying Wii's makes me wonder why even in stores that only sale videogame stuff (gamestop, etc) are sold out just like walmarts.

Software sales for the 360 in the US are good there is no denying but this is only in the US most 3rd party develpers are global compnaies and in Japan and Europe the 360 is no where near what it is here. And hte Wii is a runaway success in every market. I know gamers in north america like to pretend the other markets don't matter but money is money(or maybe its euro is euros). And lets not forget the higher production cost of producing a 360 game compared to a Wii. A Wii game will not have to sale as much to make a profit but I am sure developers will ignore that because it al revolves around software sales in NOrth AMerica. AFter all less 3td party companies are developing for the Wii this year then they were last year at this time.

The only thing the 360 got going for it is software sales in NOrth America a month after its biggest game is released(along with other great titles)and no negatives about this??? Right.

Moridin18

Who said that retirement homes are the typical buyers? Don't try and turn what I said as SW fodder because that's definitely not what it was. I thought I was clear enough in stating that I don't believe the Wii userbase is made up entirely of what could be called the 'traditional' gamer. Do I have any stats to back that up? Of course not because I don't think that is something that NPD or any one else actually measures.

Nintendo is courting the non-traditional gamer. They've said it more than once. Is there something fanboyish in me saying that? No one will deny the 360 sales in N.A. or Japan. The evidence is posted monthly, but one thing I will say is I have yet to see any concrete numbers for hardware or software sales in Europe. Saying that the 360 isn't doing as well in Europe as it is in N.A. is probably a correct statement to make but it doesn't provide us with a clear picture of the consoles situation.

You also said that the production cost is higher on the 360 than the Wii. I'll agree with that. But that developemental cost is nothing when 360 games are selling 100k or more of multiplats than the other consoles. It's been said before and I'll say it again, "This generation is different than any other because it doesn't seem like the market leader will sell the most software." The last generation the PS2 dominated and the software followed. We've had an entire year of all three consoles being out and even though the Wii is pulling away with overall consoles sold, software sales aren't following the trend of past industry leaders.

No one is discounting Europe or Japan or saying they don't matter, but the simple fact is that more software is sold in N.A. than anywhere else. Japan developers are looking to expand in N.A. because of the amount of the software sold. It's not only in N.A. that software sales revolve, it's the entire industry that this matters.

Now to the last point. I don't think the sales of the 360 are a negative after Halo 3's release for a couple of reasons. First, the past Halo games came out in November. The traditional time of the Christmas shopping season. While the release of Halo 1 and 2 in the past probably boosted the sales of the console, I'm not sure it boosted it as much as the shopping season did. The 360 hardware sales dropped in October to pre Halo 3 release numbers. I believe that the NPD numbers for November will show an increase in sales but that will be due to the shopping season. Second, I stand by my statement that the majority of Halo fans already owned the console. I think that point was proven by the record breaking first day/week sales. The game has sold almost 4 million copies in two months. That's not a negative. Not in my book. That may blow some people's minds, but here's something that also going to blow some lids... I don't believe the Wii sales are going to be that extraordinarily high because of software releases either. I don't believe the Wii sales will increase and stay high because of Mario Galaxy or Smash either. I think the numbers will increase more from the holiday shopping season rather than those two games. Add in the fact that Nintendo hasn't been able to increase their production and fix their supply problems in the past year and I think their sales will be in the same neighborhood they've been at all year. That is unless there is some truth to the rumor they've been creating this supply shortage and have stockpiled millions for the holidays. Unfortunately with how I haven't seen a Wii in stores for over 8 months, I'm going to go with a negative on the stockpiling.

[QUOTE="Moridin18"]

That is unless there is some truth to the rumor they've been creating this supply shortage and have stockpiled millions for the holidays. Unfortunately with how I haven't seen a Wii in stores for over 8 months, I'm going to go with a negative on the stockpiling.

Ghost_Face

My store (k-mart) has been stockpiling Wii's for over a month now to be released on the 20th. I'm not sure if that's the store's idea or Nintendo's though.

I'm confused how anyone is spinning the Wii or 360 numbers as negatives? I thought the majority of the people on this board felt that the majority of the Halo 3 sales would fall around that initial launch window. That most of the people that were waiting for Halo 3 were already 360 owners. That's what I remember on these forums. I think the numbers support that. The fact is that Halo 3 still came out as the number one game sold last month and the total numbers sold to date are outstanding. How is that a negative?

Ghost_Face

See, but it isn't just Halo. The 360 has more games than I can keep up with right now. Good games that I want to play. And that's piggybacking on a library that was already pretty damn solid.

My point was that, Halo or no Halo, this thing is going to have to reach critical mass soon. Posting mid-100k numbers for part of the year and low-200's for the other part is just not where the system needs to be. This is a second year system with a stellar library. Like I said before, it should be flying off the shelves.

My take is that the numbers don't look as bad because the PS3 is there to provide a potential alternative, but when you're getting outsold by the Wii in the hundreds of thousands and it hasn't had (at least at that point) a game to drive those sales, something is wrong. The 360 has been out for two full years and it's just barely crossed, what, 7 million North American systems?At that rate,assuming it has the conventional five yearcycle, it's on track to sell 17.5 million systems in North America, which isn't very stunning. In fact, compared to previous generational leaders, it's pretty poor, especially when you consider that this is its strongest territory that is supposed to be offsetting the stillborn Japanese launch. Of course the number will be higher in the end due to the price dropping and such, but I don't think we are doing the platform any favors by saying how good it's doing when it really isn't. It is what it is.

But for parity, let's look at what Microsoft has to do to hit anywhere 30 million sold by Year 5.

7 million currently. Let's say the system does 500,000 a month for the next three years. That's another 18 million consoles, and a total of only 25 million units in North America. That's at 500,000, which the 360 has only hit three times in the two years it's been on the market. To hit 30 million, they're going to have to sell 650,000 month in and out from January forward.

I'm simply not as optimistic about the numbers as others are at this point, because it's getting more and more unrealistic to assume that this system has any chance of breaking 20 million in North America.

See, but it isn't just Halo. The 360 has more games than I can keep up with right now. Good games that I want to play. And that's piggybacking on a library that was already pretty damn solid.

My point was that, Halo or no Halo, this thing is going to have to reach critical mass soon. Posting mid-100k numbers for part of the year and low-200's for the other part is just not where the system needs to be. This is a second year system with a stellar library. Like I said before, it should be flying off the shelves.

My take is that the numbersdon't look as bad because the PS3 is there to provide a potential alternative, but when you're getting outsold by the Wii in the hundreds of thousands and it hasn't had (at least at that point) a game to drive those sales, somethingis wrong. The 360 has been out for two full years and it's just barely crossed, what, 7 million North American systems?At that rate,assuming it has the conventional five yearcycle, it's on track to sell 17.5 million systems in North America, which isn't very stunning. In fact, compared to previous generational leaders, it's pretty poor. Of course the number will be higher in the end due to the price dropping and such, but I don't think we are doing the platform any favors by saying how good it's doing when it really isn't. It is what it is.

Shame-usBlackley

You failed to mention the how much more costly this generation has been over the past ones. Why does the 360 have to sell more units than it does to be considered a success? It is a success already, how can you say it's not? All I see are people quantifying that success. It's not selling as many units as the Wii, but does it really have to when it's kicking ass in the software totals? Before this gen started, no one would have believed the current status of things. The Wii on top of the hardware race, the 360 selling games like hotcakes and the PS3 bringing up the rear.

You believe the 360 should be moving more units and maybe it would in a perfect world. I believe it's exactly where it should be with the number of hardware problems the console has had and a less expensive competitor out there. The past generation was a first with a console dominating the way it did, why can't this one be unique in the current state of things? Too much is lent to the past history of this industry when overall it's relatively young and literally anything can happen.

You failed to mention the how much more costly this generation has been over the past ones. Why does the 360 have to sell more units than it does to be considered a success? It is a success already, how can you say it's not? All I see are people quantifying that success. It's not selling as many units as the Wii, but does it really have to when it's kicking ass in the software totals? Before this gen started, no one would have believed the current status of things. The Wii on top of the hardware race, the 360 selling games like hotcakes and the PS3 bringing up the rear.

You believe the 360 should be moving more units and maybe it would in a perfect world. I believe it's exactly where it should be with the number of hardware problems the console has had and a less expensive competitor out there. The past generation was a first with a console dominating the way it did, why can't this one be unique in the current state of things? Too much is lent to the past history of this industry when overall it's relatively young and literally anything can happen.

Ghost_Face

I know it's more costly, but that's Microsoft's problem to work around, not the consumer's. All I'm saying is that if Microsoft is serious about turning this thing into something of a monster, they'll reconsider waiting another two years to do a price drop. That's something I have to hand to Sony, say what you want about them (and I certainly have), but they saw the err of their ways and have made strides to correct it, even though the move (and this is best case if it works) is going to cost them millions and millions. I know Microsoft has been hit with some unfortunate hands (RROD), but I think Sony would gladly trade them problems at this point.

And history is a good barometer to go by, since historical trends have held true for the most part. The market has rejected expensive hardware before, yet two of the three companies opted to go that route, and have paid dearly for it. History has shown that there is safety in numbers, and that companies that don't hit the mass market usually end up being enthusiast machines or unspectacular. History is a painful mistress, and she isn't always right, but she's right more often than she's wrong.

I think Microsoft's machine has all the potential for becoming something huge, but they are going to haveto start looking at a bigger picture pretty quick if they want to get there.

EDIT: I guess what I'm saying is that if all they want to accomplish is selling more machines than Sony's floundering console, and achieve around the same success as the original Xbox, then Mission Accomplished. I was under the impression that they wanted this to become more than that.

Nintendo itself is acting as if the Wii's audience is a mix of newly minted fans of waggle heavy minigames and longtime, hardcore Nintendo fans. Why should 3rd parties be any different?

CarnageHeart

Because of of the top 10 third party selling games in North America (the world capital of software sales) only 1 of them is a minigame (though it is the best selling one and 2 if you count Super Monkey Ball which I consider a platformer though a some don't).

Then again this is VGCharts and as I stated before they're inaccurate at times. But still even if you double some of the minigames numbers most still sold under 100,000 units. This is why all those minigame announcements from third parties just suddenly halted after Carnival Games was announced (ironically it sold pretty good) because almost all of them sold like crap. The type of people that buy minigames are more then often "casual" gamers who by very few amount of games and wouldn't care for another "Wii Play". It's similar to the DS where Nintendo has plenty of simple games for it yet most of the best selling third party games on it aren't simple at all.

Third Parties couldn't care less with what sells for Nintendo but what sales for them.

[QUOTE="Gunraidan"]Shamus you seriously are like one of the best posters ever when it comes to analyzing the industry. :)HiResDes

As UpInFlames would say, "add yetanother male groupie to the list"

:P Guess is why I decided to track him.

Also Shameus Madden has always sold like garbage on Nintendo systems, hell Madden PSP outsold Madden DS and we all know which system does better in software.

EDIT - Seems my post is too Pro-Nintendo I must find some negatives.:twisted:

7 million currently. Let's say the system does 500,000 a month for the next three years. That's another 18 million consoles, and a total of only 25 million units in North America. That's at 500,000, which the 360 has only hit three times in the two years it's been on the market. To hit 30 million, they're going to have to sell 650,000 month in and out from January forward.

I'm simply not as optimistic about the numbers as others are at this point, because it's getting more and more unrealistic to assume that this system has any chance of breaking 20 million in North America.

Shame-usBlackley

Agreed, and it sold even lower then that because some people had to rebuy or trade in their defective Xbox's (RRoD). Seeing this it is really puzzling to why it hasn't sold more in North America. The system is ridiculously American centric with Shooters, Sports, and Action titles headline it. Not only that but it also seems to be the "must have" console if you want games. It seems to me that Microsoft has done so much to keep this console float aboat in North America I mean over the past few months alone they published around 5 first party games. I don't know if it's A. Because the systems to expensive. B. Because the Market is looking for something new (hence buying the Wii for Wii Sports and probably for it's potential) C. All of the Above.

Just stumbled across this, Ghost.

And while this is certainly nowhere near as good as a price drop would be, it's a hell of a good Plan B.

Just stumbled across this, Ghost.

And while this is certainly nowhere near as good as a price drop would be, it's a hell of a good Plan B.

Shame-usBlackley

It just says "Page not Found" you linked it wrong.

I know it's more costly, but that's Microsoft's problem to work around, not the consumer's. All I'm saying is that if Microsoft is serious about turning this thing into something of a monster, they'll reconsider waiting another two years to do a price drop. That's something I have to hand to Sony, say what you want about them (and I certainly have), but they saw the err of their ways and have made strides to correct it, even though the move (and this is best case if it works) is going to cost them millions and millions. I know Microsoft has been hit with some unfortunate hands (RROD), but I think Sony would gladly trade them problems at this point.

And history is a good barometer to go by, since historical trends have held true for the most part. The market has rejected expensive hardware before, yet two of the three companies opted to go that route, and have paid dearly for it. History has shown that there is safety in numbers, and that companies that don't hit the mass market usually end up being enthusiast machines or unspectacular. History is a painful mistress, and she isn't always right, but she's right more often than she's wrong.

I think Microsoft's machine has all the potential for becoming something huge, but they are going to haveto start looking at a bigger picture pretty quick if they want to get there.

EDIT: I guess what I'm saying is that if all they want to accomplish is selling more machines than Sony's floundering console, and achieve around the same success as the original Xbox, then Mission Accomplished. I was under the impression that they wanted this to become more than that.

Shame-usBlackley

Shame-Us, I get what you're saying. I just don't think people know how to concede points in a discussion, like doing so is the equivalent to loosing or something.

My point about history is that there hasn't been a generation like this before. Yeah, history is a barometer unless it's the first time something happens. There was supposedly no murder in the world until Cain murdered Able. Prior history did not have an example of that until then, that's my point. There was no precedent like the MS and Bungie split until this year and I think that this generation doesn't fit perfectly into the mold created by history.

I also think it's a very limited view of success in that last few sentences. Of course they have an objective to sell more consoles than Sony, but I don't think only doing that results in a failure. They've turned a profit on the Xbox console. They've broken sales records on software. They are increasing their revenue stream on Live. I agree they wanted more hardware sales, but that doesn't mean they haven't been successful without those numbers.

[QUOTE="Shame-usBlackley"]

Just stumbled across this, Ghost.

And while this is certainly nowhere near as good as a price drop would be, it's a hell of a good Plan B.

Gunraidan

It just says "Page not Found" you linked it wrong.

It's actually been pulled. The link originally took you to Xbox.com and it showed a free Halo 3 with purchase of a 360 promotion. You received a code that you input into Xbox.com and they send out a copy of the game.

Interesting that it's been pulled. I wonder when this is going to hit? The expiration date showed 12/21/07, so it can't be too far off.

It's actually been pulled. The link originally took you to Xbox.com and it showed a free Halo 3 with purchase of a 360 promotion. You received a code that you input into Xbox.com and they send out a copy of the game.

Interesting that it's been pulled. I wonder when this is going to hit? The expiration date showed 12/21/07, so it can't be too far off.

Shame-usBlackley

They sold out that fast! :P

[QUOTE="Shame-usBlackley"]

It's actually been pulled. The link originally took you to Xbox.com and it showed a free Halo 3 with purchase of a 360 promotion. You received a code that you input into Xbox.com and they send out a copy of the game.

Interesting that it's been pulled. I wonder when this is going to hit? The expiration date showed 12/21/07, so it can't be too far off.

Ghost_Face

They sold out that fast! :P

Hey, it's Halo. I take back all that I said about Microsoft. :P

Shame-Us, I get what you're saying. I just don't think people know how to concede points in a discussion, like doing so is the equivalent to loosing or something.

My point about history is that there hasn't been a generation like this before. Yeah, history is a barometer unless it's the first time something happens. There was supposedly no murder in the world until Cain murdered Able. Prior history did not have an example of that until then, that's my point. There was no precedent like the MS and Bungie split until this year and I think that this generation doesn't fit perfectly into the mold created by history.

I also think it's a very limited view of success in that last few sentences. Of course they have an objective to sell more consoles than Sony, but I don't think only doing that results in a failure. They've turned a profit on the Xbox console. They've broken sales records on software. They are increasing their revenue stream on Live. I agree they wanted more hardware sales, but that doesn't mean they haven't been successful without those numbers.

Ghost_Face

Nah, man. It's all good. I totally see what you're saying as well. And I don't want to sound down on the 360 -- I love mine. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that I don't know what I'd be doing right now if I didn't have one. I believe in the system, and I think it has a chance to become something really special, but I just can't agree with a lot of the moves Microsoft has made with it.

I'm not predicting dark things for the system, only that it isn't where it could be. But it could sure be a lot worse as well.

Nah, man. It's all good. I totally see what you're saying as well. And I don't want to sound down on the 360 -- I love mine. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that I don't know what I'd be doing right now if I didn't have one. I believe in the system, and I think it has a chance to become something really special, but I just can't agree with a lot of the moves Microsoft has made with it.

I'm not predicting dark things for the system, only that it isn't where it could be. But it could sure be a lot worse as well.

Shame-usBlackley

Hugs all around. :D

Anyway, I agree that it would be great if it would sell more and if it wasn't for the 360, I'd still be playing my original Xbox and GC. I just don't think higher sales are feasible with the conditions and hurdles it's facing. Some of them lying squarely in MS's lap. I will say I think that not dropping the price sooner and only by the amount they did is just as bad as all the hardware failures. With the inevitability it seems of the first generation of 360's failure, I'm surprised that they have maintained the numbers they have. In all honesty, the sales should have tanked with the RROD and the word of mouth about them and they haven't. Does that speak to ignorance and not caring on the public's part or something else?

[QUOTE="Gunraidan"][QUOTE="Shame-usBlackley"]

Just stumbled across this, Ghost.

And while this is certainly nowhere near as good as a price drop would be, it's a hell of a good Plan B.

Shame-usBlackley

It just says "Page not Found" you linked it wrong.

It's actually been pulled. The link originally took you to Xbox.com and it showed a free Halo 3 with purchase of a 360 promotion. You received a code that you input into Xbox.com and they send out a copy of the game.

Interesting that it's been pulled. I wonder when this is going to hit? The expiration date showed 12/21/07, so it can't be too far off.

It's back up, and the promotion now has one major catch - you have to be a paid subscriber to Xbox Live on the original Xbox. How many people are still keeping an active account on the original Xbox? Is this promotion targetting 23 people?

It's back up, and the promotion now has one major catch - you have to be a paid subscriber to Xbox Live on the original Xbox. How many people are still keeping an active account on the original Xbox? Is this promotion targetting 23 people?

argianas

That promotion blows chunks...

Regarding the 360 hardware sales and the question as to why it isn't doing better, there are two (and a half) things I can say which are personally keeping me from purchasing one and which are possibly the same for others.

1. Hardware reliability. This is a real major point. I can only afford to buy a console once and I've heard way too many horror stories (from users of this very board no less, whom I trust are telling the truth). I understand that extending the warranty to 3 years goes some way but the Microsoft website doesn't even acknowledge the country I live in, in their list of countries and I don't trust the sellers here to make good on it frankly.

2. In Europe the price compared to that of the PS3 is only marginally lower, where as in the US this is a major factor in favour of the 360. For example a 20GB premium 360 bundled with Halo3 is less than $100 cheaper (which when comparing $500 to $600 is not that major) than a 60GB PS3 bundled with Motorstorm and Resistance (which also offers blu-ray playback for those who care). So it's arguable as to which is the better deal. If I buy one it'll mean that i'll miss out on the other (until maybe the very end of the generation) as opportunity cost. I'm still on the fence.

2.5 A lot of the games are out on PC as well, for the most part cheaper. This is really minor for me because i'd need to upgrade my PC to play most of them but i'm sure it's a strong enough reason for many PC users.

So basically this was a very round-about way of saying: reliability and price are what's stopping the 360 from reaching bigger figures. As to why the same two issues didn't stop the PS2, it's possibly because there was no real alternative for console gamers last generation.

[QUOTE="CarnageHeart"]

Nintendo itself is acting as if the Wii's audience is a mix of newly minted fans of waggle heavy minigames and longtime, hardcore Nintendo fans. Why should 3rd parties be any different?

Gunraidan

Because of of the top 10 third party selling games in North America (the world capital of software sales) only 1 of them is a minigame (though it is the best selling one and 2 if you count Super Monkey Ball which I consider a platformer though a some don't).

Then again this is VGCharts and as I stated before they're inaccurate at times. But still even if you double some of the minigames numbers most still sold under 100,000 units. This is why all those minigame announcements from third parties just suddenly halted after Carnival Games was announced (ironically it sold pretty good) because almost all of them sold like crap. The type of people that buy minigames are more then often "casual" gamers who by very few amount of games and wouldn't care for another "Wii Play". It's similar to the DS where Nintendo has plenty of simple games for it yet most of the best selling third party games on it aren't simple at all.

Third Parties couldn't care less with what sells for Nintendo but what sales for them.

Bear in mind that I didn't say that the Wii's audience is exclusively casual gamers, I stated it was a mix of casual gamers and longtime Nintendo fans.

VGChartz's numbers have at best a nodding relationship with reality, but for the purposes of this discussion, I will take them as gospel.

By my count, five of the games on VG chartz's top ten selling Wii games are minigame collections (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Mario Party 8, Raving Rabbits and Warioware). Wii Sports' US popularity is hard to quantify since it comes packed with every system, but mainstream publications have sung its praises and newspaper articles have talked about people being sucked in by it, so I assume it is well regarded (the last minigame collection I loved was Combat!, so I am in no position to judge). Ditto for Wii Play (which is a controller pack-in). There are also six GC sequels/ports (RE4, Mario Party, Paper Mario, Zelda, Metroid and Warioware) though the lists overlap. The only game which falls outside either of the two categories is Red Steel, which is the exception that proves the rule.

I fully agree with your last point that third parties don't care what sells for Nintendo, but what sells for them. Look at what happened with Madden. EA put a special team on Madden Wii who rebuilt the game around the Wiimote and offered up a sort of beginner's mode and thew in a bunch of minigames. Reviewers praised them for 'getting' the Wii. Despite this, Madden Wii was outsold by every other version(X360, PS2, PS3, Xbox1) version and the Xbox1 was discontinued a long time ago. This despite the vast numbers of Wiis sold each month. Yes, Guitar Hero did well, but it is a game built around a controller which lends itself to parties, so it was more compatible with casual gamers than the likes of Madden or Bioshock (not two games one often sees in the same sentence).

[QUOTE="Gunraidan"][QUOTE="CarnageHeart"]

Nintendo itself is acting as if the Wii's audience is a mix of newly minted fans of waggle heavy minigames and longtime, hardcore Nintendo fans. Why should 3rd parties be any different?

CarnageHeart

Because of of the top 10 third party selling games in North America (the world capital of software sales) only 1 of them is a minigame (though it is the best selling one and 2 if you count Super Monkey Ball which I consider a platformer though a some don't).

Then again this is VGCharts and as I stated before they're inaccurate at times. But still even if you double some of the minigames numbers most still sold under 100,000 units. This is why all those minigame announcements from third parties just suddenly halted after Carnival Games was announced (ironically it sold pretty good) because almost all of them sold like crap. The type of people that buy minigames are more then often "casual" gamers who by very few amount of games and wouldn't care for another "Wii Play". It's similar to the DS where Nintendo has plenty of simple games for it yet most of the best selling third party games on it aren't simple at all.

Third Parties couldn't care less with what sells for Nintendo but what sales for them.

Bear in mind that I didn't say that the Wii's audience is exclusively casual gamers, I stated it was a mix of casual gamers and longtime Nintendo fans.

VGChartz's numbers have at best a nodding relationship with reality, but for the purposes of this discussion, I will take them as gospel.

By my count, five of the games on VG chartz's top ten selling Wii games are minigame collections (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Mario Party 8, Raving Rabbits and Warioware). Wii Sports' US popularity is hard to quantify since it comes packed with every system, but mainstream publications have sung its praises and newspaper articles have talked about people being sucked in by it, so I assume it is well regarded (the last minigame collection I loved was Combat!, so I am in no position to judge). Ditto for Wii Play (which is a controller pack-in). There are also six GC sequels/ports (RE4, Mario Party, Paper Mario, Zelda, Metroid and Warioware) though the lists overlap. The only game which falls outside either of the two categories is Red Steel, which is the exception that proves the rule.

I fully agree with your last point that third parties don't care what sells for Nintendo, but what sells for them. Look at what happened with Madden. EA put a special team on Madden Wii who rebuilt the game around the Wiimote and offered up a sort of beginner's mode and thew in a bunch of minigames. Reviewers praised them for 'getting' the Wii. Despite this, Madden Wii was outsold by every other version(X360, PS2, PS3, Xbox1) version and the Xbox1 was discontinued a long time ago. This despite the vast numbers of Wiis sold each month. Yes, Guitar Hero did well, but it is a game built around a controller which lends itself to parties, so it was more compatible with casual gamers than the likes of Madden or Bioshock (not two games one often sees in the same sentence).

Even still, the Wii has been getting really excellent third-party titles than the GC got in its lifetime. Yes, there'sa pileload of junk, but there are a lot of good ones too. I'm seeing a handful of titles that I wouldn't mind getting, which is surprising to myself because I had no interest in picking up a Wii at the moment even though I always planned on getting it eventually.

But these good titles of late are convincing me to get it sooner, and they're not mini-games I'm referring to.