Arab Spring in the absence of the Iraq War?

[QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"]

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"] Looking at the Libyan situation, a no fly zone.jetpower3

Do you think the west would have agreed to lift the sanctions without major concessions on Saddam's part that could have weakened him long-term?

I think the relation between the Iraq War and the Arab Spring is ambiguous to say the least. People had been predicting movements like the Arab Spring long before the Iraq War by the mere fact that the Arab world has such a huge population of unemployed young people who resent the old autocrats. So something resembling the Arab Spring likely would have happened regardless of what went on in Iraq. However, I doubt a revolution would have successfully toppled Saddam Hussein. He had plenty of experience putting down uprisings. What has been going on in Syria is a good simulacrum of what would have happened in Iraq, since Syria is also under centralized Ba'athist rule. It's also worth noting that it's hard to say where exactly the Arab Spring is going to take the countries it has affected. fidosim

I suppose my main thesis would have been better put as: "Would it have been better to shelf a unilateral invasion, and instead draw up contingencies for an air war (a la Libya) should Iraqis ever rise up again"? I'm just trying to come to terms with how much of an opportunity cost the Iraq War has likely been.

[QUOTE="kuraimen"][QUOTE="SEANMCAD"]

the oil markets would have moved to the euro and oil right now for us would be much higher and Iran, Russia, and I think France would be doing very well right now.

the war was 100% about oil

jetpower3

Which "wars" do you refer to? Iraq?

[QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"]

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"] Looking at the Libyan situation, a no fly zone.Victorious_Fize

[QUOTE="jetpower3"]

[QUOTE="kuraimen"] This, the wars also complicated things even further and created a new generation of resentment against the west in the middle east that will undoubtedly come back to bite them in the ass.kuraimen

Which "wars" do you refer to? Iraq?

I doubt the latter would have been as bad without the former. But then again, nation building in general is a crapshoot and Afghanistan has never had any tradition of what the U.S. wanted.

[QUOTE="fidosim"]I think the relation between the Iraq War and the Arab Spring is ambiguous to say the least. People had been predicting movements like the Arab Spring long before the Iraq War by the mere fact that the Arab world has such a huge population of unemployed young people who resent the old autocrats. So something resembling the Arab Spring likely would have happened regardless of what went on in Iraq. However, I doubt a revolution would have successfully toppled Saddam Hussein. He had plenty of experience putting down uprisings. What has been going on in Syria is a good simulacrum of what would have happened in Iraq, since Syria is also under centralized Ba'athist rule. It's also worth noting that it's hard to say where exactly the Arab Spring is going to take the countries it has affected. jetpower3

I suppose my main thesis would have been better put as: "Would it have been better to shelf a unilateral invasion, and instead draw up contingencies for an air war (a la Libya) should Iraqis ever rise up again"? I'm just trying to come to terms with how much of an opportunity cost the Iraq War has likely been.

also lol @ monarchist & Arab-hating Arabs.Victorious_Fize

I don't think it would have happened. Like other people said we would probably be seeing Saddam act like Assad .

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"]also lol @ monarchist & Arab-hating Arabs.GazaAli

[QUOTE="GazaAli"][QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"]also lol @ monarchist & Arab-hating Arabs.Victorious_Fize

[QUOTE="jetpower3"]

[QUOTE="fidosim"]I think the relation between the Iraq War and the Arab Spring is ambiguous to say the least. People had been predicting movements like the Arab Spring long before the Iraq War by the mere fact that the Arab world has such a huge population of unemployed young people who resent the old autocrats. So something resembling the Arab Spring likely would have happened regardless of what went on in Iraq. However, I doubt a revolution would have successfully toppled Saddam Hussein. He had plenty of experience putting down uprisings. What has been going on in Syria is a good simulacrum of what would have happened in Iraq, since Syria is also under centralized Ba'athist rule. It's also worth noting that it's hard to say where exactly the Arab Spring is going to take the countries it has affected. fidosim

I suppose my main thesis would have been better put as: "Would it have been better to shelf a unilateral invasion, and instead draw up contingencies for an air war (a la Libya) should Iraqis ever rise up again"? I'm just trying to come to terms with how much of an opportunity cost the Iraq War has likely been.

I suppose Gaddafi had the bad luck of no organized political party and no sectarian tensions to play with (and no sect to stack in his favor). Not that Libya is in no danger of dire straits.

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"][QUOTE="GazaAli"] Have you ever been to Egypt? I have traveled there because I have to in order to travel somewhere else. I was treated like sh!t and will never forget the two days the security at the airport locked me in a filthy room with scumbags and criminals.GazaAli

[QUOTE="GazaAli"][QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"] Putting how that doesn't excuse your condemnation of the revolution and its people: you can blame the dictators for that. The Brotherhood literally had to clean trash off the streets and roads of Egypt. I would rather live in revolutionary Egypt and Gaza than stay here in GCC countries.Victorious_Fize

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"]

[QUOTE="GazaAli"] I can go on forever explaining how that had nothing to do with Mubarak and whatnot, but eh whatever. I don't take anyone seriously who believes in the Islamic brotherhood. No offense bro, you are a nice guy but politics is a different thing.GazaAli

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"]

[QUOTE="GazaAli"] I can go on forever explaining how that had nothing to do with Mubarak and whatnot, but eh whatever. I don't take anyone seriously who believes in the Islamic brotherhood. No offense bro, you are a nice guy but politics is a different thing.GazaAli

You have to be a direct family or a contractor :(GazaAli

Thanks bro, where do you live by the way?GazaAli

[QUOTE="GazaAli"]You have to be a direct family or a contractor :(themajormayor

[QUOTE="GazaAli"]Thanks bro, where do you live by the way?Victorious_Fize

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"][QUOTE="GazaAli"]Thanks bro, where do you live by the way?GazaAli

I agree with you exept for one thing. Saddam Hussein would have at the very least crushed all descent in his country without any doubt. And if he could, he would have launched a pan arab war since he was a nationalist, and would not have wanted democracy spread in the arab world since he wanted to be the leader of arabs.

[QUOTE="GazaAli"]Thanks bro, where do you live by the way?Victorious_Fize

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"][QUOTE="GazaAli"]Thanks bro, where do you live by the way?MrPraline

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"][QUOTE="MrPraline"]lolSaudiFury

from what i gather from your post history and what i've seen.

there is not much to learn.

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"][QUOTE="MrPraline"]lolSaudiFury

That's a major assumption and a "what if".

from what i gather from your post history and what i've seen.

there is not much to learn.

SaudiFury

[QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"][QUOTE="MrPraline"]lolDarkman2007

[QUOTE="SaudiFury"]

from what i gather from your post history and what i've seen.

there is not much to learn.

MrPraline

That was a bit contradictory. Just saying.

[QUOTE="MrPraline"][QUOTE="SaudiFury"]

from what i gather from your post history and what i've seen.

there is not much to learn.

themajormayor

That was a bit contradictory. Just saying.

[QUOTE="SaudiFury"]

from what i gather from your post history and what i've seen.

there is not much to learn.

MrPraline

I don't claim to know you, i've never met you, i claim to have a good idea as to how you will respond. If reading dozens of posts by you and seeing your beliefs written down and how you present yourself does not amount to some knowledge as to what you think and how you act. Then i don't know what counts then.

if say i were to start a thread about say.... abortion, By and large the active posters on this forum, i can already tell what and where most of them stand. After being on here for some 5 years, it begins to be predictable as to who will respond and how. it's not about being a smart @ss, or claiming to know people, it's about seeing a predictable response given again and again.

When victorious_fize writes that he is of a Yemeni tribal origin, what does this change for you? you already lol'd at him for living in Saudi Arabia. were all a bunch of sand people to some of you guys anyways.

[QUOTE="Darkman2007"][QUOTE="Victorious_Fize"] Arabic tribes go a little something like this...Adnanites of Ishmaelites of Israelites. Qahtanites (Qahtan) of Eber, founder of the Arabic lineage.Victorious_Fize

I know who the Israelites are (they are my ancestors after all) , but how did an Arab tribe get named after them? Jews who came to Arabia and eventually converted to Islam?

[QUOTE="MrPraline"][QUOTE="SaudiFury"]

from what i gather from your post history and what i've seen.

there is not much to learn.

SaudiFury

I don't claim to know you, i've never met you, i claim to have a good idea as to how you will respond. If reading dozens of posts by you and seeing your beliefs written down and how you present yourself does not amount to some knowledge as to what you think and how you act. Then i don't know what counts then.

if say i were to start a thread about say.... abortion, By and large the active posters on this forum, i can already tell what and where most of them stand. After being on here for some 5 years, it begins to be predictable as to who will respond and how. it's not about being a smart @ss, or claiming to know people, it's about seeing a predictable response given again and again.

When victorious_fize writes that he is of a Yemeni tribal origin, what does this change for you? you already lol'd at him for living in Saudi Arabia. were all a bunch of sand people to some of you guys anyways.

You're very predictable yourself.

[QUOTE="SaudiFury"]

[QUOTE="MrPraline"]So, you claim to know what I am about after reading a few random posts on Gamespot? Man. That is dishonest even for you. PWSteal_Ldpinch

I don't claim to know you, i've never met you, i claim to have a good idea as to how you will respond. If reading dozens of posts by you and seeing your beliefs written down and how you present yourself does not amount to some knowledge as to what you think and how you act. Then i don't know what counts then.

if say i were to start a thread about say.... abortion, By and large the active posters on this forum, i can already tell what and where most of them stand. After being on here for some 5 years, it begins to be predictable as to who will respond and how. it's not about being a smart @ss, or claiming to know people, it's about seeing a predictable response given again and again.

When victorious_fize writes that he is of a Yemeni tribal origin, what does this change for you? you already lol'd at him for living in Saudi Arabia. were all a bunch of sand people to some of you guys anyways.

You're very predictable yourself.

[QUOTE="PWSteal_Ldpinch"]

[QUOTE="SaudiFury"]

I don't claim to know you, i've never met you, i claim to have a good idea as to how you will respond. If reading dozens of posts by you and seeing your beliefs written down and how you present yourself does not amount to some knowledge as to what you think and how you act. Then i don't know what counts then.

if say i were to start a thread about say.... abortion, By and large the active posters on this forum, i can already tell what and where most of them stand. After being on here for some 5 years, it begins to be predictable as to who will respond and how. it's not about being a smart @ss, or claiming to know people, it's about seeing a predictable response given again and again.

When victorious_fize writes that he is of a Yemeni tribal origin, what does this change for you? you already lol'd at him for living in Saudi Arabia. were all a bunch of sand people to some of you guys anyways.

SaudiFury

You're very predictable yourself.

[QUOTE="PWSteal_Ldpinch"]

[QUOTE="SaudiFury"]

I don't claim to know you, i've never met you, i claim to have a good idea as to how you will respond. If reading dozens of posts by you and seeing your beliefs written down and how you present yourself does not amount to some knowledge as to what you think and how you act. Then i don't know what counts then.

if say i were to start a thread about say.... abortion, By and large the active posters on this forum, i can already tell what and where most of them stand. After being on here for some 5 years, it begins to be predictable as to who will respond and how. it's not about being a smart @ss, or claiming to know people, it's about seeing a predictable response given again and again.

When victorious_fize writes that he is of a Yemeni tribal origin, what does this change for you? you already lol'd at him for living in Saudi Arabia. were all a bunch of sand people to some of you guys anyways.

SaudiFury

You're very predictable yourself.