[QUOTE="iHarlequin"]
[QUOTE="Amvis"]
Well, the OP said nukes aside. But yeah, even with nukes it would be up in the air. France and Great Britain both have nuclear arsenals. They can't quite match Russia's but still, I would imagine in that case no one would win lol.
Amvis
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Well, there's also a matter of size. Europe is tiny. Seriously -- tiny. As a grounds of comparison I have my country, Brazil - which stands at double the size of the European Union. Russia is four times as large as the European Union. It's entirely impossible for the EU to occupy (in terms of population and equipment) anything Russian for extended periods of time that is on the other side of the Ural mountains (aka: most of it). As you said, the only considerable Armed Forces in the EU are from Great Britain and France - which combined have 600k military (counting reservists). Russia has 3.5m personnel (active and reserve). Without U.S. intervention, Russia would win - nuke or no nuke - simply because occupying/destroying the infrastructure of the minuscle strips of land that Great Britain and, to a lesser extent, France are (or even the entire EU), is much easier than occupying Russia.
Like I said in previous posts, European nations would abandon their welfare models and remilitarize. Size doesn't really matter. Most of Russia beyond the Urals is not so concrete. It's hollowness would be like the South's during the American Civil War. Once you break past the lines, nothing but vast open lands. It comes down to centers of gravity, as Clausewitz would say. If Moscow and St. Petersburg both fall and the government is pushed beyond the Urals then internal nationalist movements would almost certainly breakout and become violent. Russia would ultimately sue for peace or face dissolution.
If you think I'm wrong, I'd like to point out that very few of the USA's nuclear targets against the USSR were east of the Ural Mountains. The reason being because most industrial, capiltal, and population capabilities and resources were west of the Urals.
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Yes, they're obviously not going to nuke the tundra in Siberia when they can target Moscow or St. Petersburg. I'm more inclined to believe the Russian population more ready to live without their infrastructure than the welfare states of Europe. It'd be similar to the failed invasions of Afghanistan -- you can take their cities, supply lines, but in the end your incapacity to hold it, and the loss from attrition and maintaining an army in foreign territory just wears you down to defeat. Then again, hypothetical history is folly, and we're both just wasting our time trying to discern what would happen in a scenario that there are a massive amount of variables we haven't even thought of. Strictly due to size, strictly due to firepower/armed forces size, strictly due to geography, I'd say Russia would win.
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