So if the earth is 4.5 billion years old, that gives us approximately 4500000000/15 = (we are estimating ~ 15 years between generations, on average, of all species ever to exist on earth). That gives us 300 million generations to get from dust to current forms of living matter, with setbacks every 65 million years (the solar system is moving throughout the Milky Way, and recent evidence shows that once every approximately 65 million years, we enter an area of the Milky Way that is ripe for extinctions (the tail of the Milky Way as it is also moving throughout the universe).
First mistake: applying a human timescale to every species ever. Also, there are no setbacks. 65 million years ago, the dinos went extinct and allowed the mammals to take over the Earth. Mammals survived, thus making them the superior creatures in the eyes of natural selection.
So step one is to realize that a simple adaptation such as eskimos having squinty eyes due to them living in the arctic where sun reflects off the ice into the eyes, happen constantly. No one can deny this. There is a sharp distinction between this adaptation and the genetic mutation that causes species jumps. Imagine with me that we have a few cell organism. Radiation from the sun somehow mutates a gene to have a different DNA sequence that causes an RNA strand to create a gene that creates a protein that makes lung tissue in an aquatic animal. What do you think the probablilty of a gene mutation like that is? Also, what do you think the probability of that gene appearing in a fish so readily, that it doesn't disappear over the next few generations simply because there is no need for it. Fish didn't evolve lungs and then instantly use them. That means survival of the fitest did not apply. Early lungs would be non functioning (extra appendages). That means, there is a probability that these would disappear because they did not help that creature in any way.
Not true. Early forms of appendages are usually transitional forms of other appendages (such as fins to feet). Also mutation occur at an incredibly rapid rate. Most are either corrected, don't do anything, or reduce the chances of survival. But it only takes a single lucky nucleotide placement to give an organism a HUGE advantage.
So really, we are looking at a mathematical probability. What is the probability that within 300,000,000 generations, there was a genetic mutation that occurred at exactly the right time in history, and exactly the functionality necessary for the survival and eventual thriving of a species.
This is why reproduction produces more offspring than can be supported by the environment. This is where natural selection comes in. Plus, there are many ways that an organism can adapt to give it an advantage, just because it turned out one way doesn't mean that was the only possible solution.
Not that great. Sure it is easy to take a virus and prove evolution as they reproduce very quickly. But once you get into multicelled organisms and talk of gene mutation spawning such things as organs and lungs, you really get into probabilities much to high for the current time frame.
This is why most of the more recent evolution has had to do with speciation rather than single celled organisms going to multicelled organisms.
Next is the fact that scientists don't have a clear picture of what was happening in history. If the earth is 4.5 billion years old, and scientists have found even 100,000 unique locations based on different times in history (which isn't true in the least), that gives them a snapshot of only .002% of all of history.....hmmm, it then makes sense that they can complete the history of all species with that much information. It's so nice to hear they have so much data. Add into that the fact that when they do make a discovery, it is based on a specific location and sitution in history. If you found fossils from the everglades today 350 million years from now, you would be pretty sure that evolution had only reached the reptilian stage because that is all you would see. You would see crocodiles, alligators, fish and sea creatures in a swamp land. You see such a small part of the world.....so actually, your .002% view is only of .002% of the earth at taht moment. So really you only have a .0000004% view of anything.....
This is why there's more than just fossil evidence for evolution. And likely, you would find other fossils from some other organisms in the same time period in other locations. And even despite the lacking fossil record we STILL have plenty of transitional forms that document subtle changes in the structure of species.
So if you add together the fact that the probabilities of genetic mutations and the fact that scientists actually have no idea what happened over 99.9% of history, you have a pretty AMAZING theory called evolution. My logic tells me not to believe things that are so horribly supported. (I have other reasons, but I am off to bed)/
Mutations are inherently random, you can't calculate probabilities, just averages based on past data. Do you even know how many different ways a mutation can occur? Also, I'll say this again. You left out a lot of evidence. Just because you're a physicist does not make you well informed in all areas of science, nor does it make you unbiased.
But go ahead and blindly agree with what "scientists" have to say without thinking for yourselves.....oh wait, that is exactly what you say about creationists.
I don't blindly agree with scientists, because I see the strong evidence they put forth for evolution and accept it. Also, people usually bash creationists for blindly accepting a hypothesis without any evidence, which is pretty different from evolution.
seabiscuit8686
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