The big budget blockbuster exclusive died a few years ago. What we are seeing today is costly attempts by console companies to keep them alive with self funding, short term solutions to a long term problem.
What? Are console companies going to keep supplementing their line-up forever? Every game isn't a GT5 that is popular enough to cover its massive budget, you cannot blow $60 million on development costs alone and expect a single platform to make the game break even.
Big budget games in the future will be exclusive to cross platform titles, as they should be, as with any other mass audience entertainment medium.
Films and music are massive international industries, the games market hopes to be as big one day, they only got that way and were able to sustain it by being accessible to very board audiences. You cannot invest that sort of money then limit the product to only one of several audiences that could buy it, that's why films need linear progression of formats and cannot maintain multiple standards at once.
We have DVD right now and are moving to Blu-ray, we couldn't have both Blu-ray and HD-DVD because the competition would segregate the market and restrict audience size. Film makers spend far too much money to restrict themselves to one of several formats, they want one format their entire potential audience can access. That's why we need standard film and music formats that are accessible to everyone, gaming is no different.
Blockbuster exclusives are far too cost retrained by their audience size to justify such massive budgets, inevitably at some point it won't be possible at all. Yet time and time again both Microsoft and Sony splash out $10s of millions in an effort to produce these games as exclusives. As I said, short term solutions to a long term problem that they will eventually have to deal with one day; whether they like it or not.
So are they actually going to adapt to this changing market and figure out how to differentiate themselves outside of blockbuster exclusives, or are they going to keep spending until these games can no longer break even and they panic?
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