@Grey_Eyed_Elf said:
Power and heat ristrictions... A 65w CPU at 4Ghz is not going to happen, that doesn't even include the price of the part.
The next consoles will more or less look like the following based on the fact that the consoles are probably in some form of development or RND and will release within the next 2 years with a price target of $400-500:
- Vega 56 level of performance from the GPU (the GPU will not be a substantial increase of the X1X due to the price and time difference between the release of the coming generation and it at best it will be 30-50% faster)
- A Zen Raven Ridge APU with a 2-2.5Ghz clock with 4c/8t
- 16GB GDDR5
- 1TB HDD
I have said it before this mid/late generation upgrade has ruined the chances of the next generation being a substantial performance increase. IT will be the smallest performance gap we have seen. So if you think the PS4 and X1 where disappointing you wait for the PS5.
2 years is not enough time for the industry to produce a GPU twice as good as the X1X for the same manufacturing costs required by a console.
It took 5 years for us to go from
- 12 CU to 40 CU
- 768 SU to 2560 SU
- 16 ROPS to 32 ROPS
A 2 year difference?... It will look like this
- 40 to 50+ CU
- 2560 to 3000+ SU
- 32 to 64 ROPS
Its not going to wow anyone. The 5 year generational gap is NEEDED in order to see a substantial advancement in not just raw horse power but features and technologies.
At best you will be looking at native 4K with 30/60FPS depending on the developers choice of framerate. The coming generation will be disappointing to say the least and not only that but WONT cost $399 that the X1 and PS4 launched with.
Its not a crystal ball, its just logic. Console hardware is restricted to power and price and the industry wont advance far enough to provide the performance that we usually expect with a console gap due to the introduction of the mid/late cycle console releases.
Minus 32MB ESRAM and Kinect, XBO's 363 mm2 chip size could have 28 CU. PS4's 347 mm2 chip size is indicative of AMD's GPU bias APU at 347 mm2 without Kinect distraction. 32MB ESRAM would have supported another 14 CUs.
XBO actually has 14 CU with 2 CU being disabled for yield issues.
PS4 actually has 20 CU with 2 CU being disabled for yield issues.
X1X GPU has 44 CU with 4 CU being disabled for yield issues. 28 CU to 44 CU is almost 2X CU count which maps with 28 nm to 16 nm scaling. 14 nm is slightly smaller than 16 nm.
X1X follows PS4's APU plan with 359 mm2 size chip and 16 nm FINFET tech, and it doesn't have Kinect distraction..
X1X 's GPU chip area size is about 283 mm scale from 16 nm would be about 2.2X density hence looking at 96 CUs. X1X GPU already has 2MB L2 cache and 2MB render cache, hence 7 nm version could yield 8 MB version.
VEGA 64 has 45 MB SRAM cache with high bandwidth cache (HBC) which is almost pointless for gaming i.e. VEGA 64 has Hollywood/Bollywood distractions.
Removing Raja Koduri from RTG removes Bollywood distractions.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2017/05/25/baahubali-tech-wizard-raja-koduri-discusses-making-movie-and-vr-magic/#45b15545c921
http://www.animationxpress.com/index.php/latest-news/vfx-is-the-next-big-thing-in-india-believes-amds-raja-koduri
596 mm2 = Fury X with 64 CU...
564 mm2 = Vega 64 with 64 CU... wtf happened between 28 nm Fury X to 14 nm Vega 64?
~283 mm2 = X1X's GPU with 44 CU with 16 nm.
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