Gran Turismo SHOULD outsell Halo Reach.

[QUOTE="VoodooHak"]

[QUOTE="asylumni"]

Ok, in lieu of better, vgchartz has this

GT1 10.85m

GT2 9.37m

GT3 14.89m

GT4 10.54m

Halo1 6.43m

Halo2 8.43m

Halo3 11.03m

ODST 5.30m

Breakdown by gen.

PS1 20.22m

PS2 25.43m

Xbox 14.86m

360 16.33m

So what pattern is there? It could, perhaps be argued that the first full GT of a gen get huge sales and there's less interest in a second release, but that's really not what you're proposing. Seems like GT5 has a very good chance to outsell Halo Reach.

And how can you possibly conclude that Halo outsells GT?

asylumni

Forget the fact that we're somehow excluding the PS3 and GT5P which is available a lower price.

There is no doubt that the GT franchise has outsold Halo as a whole. But we're trying to come up with a predictive model which means we have to weight the figures to account for userbase. That would be a more apples to apples comparison.

With PS2 as well over 100mil units and the 360 at 40 mil units. Even if we bump 360 up to 50 mil units and keep PS2 down at 100, the ratio is still in favor of Halo outselling GT.

So we just ignore the fact that GT5: P is not by any means a full release, has a fraction of the content of a full release and was generally hammered by reviews for this? Should we also consider sales of Halo Wars then?

Attempting to draw conclusions based on total user-base is useless unless you know the make-up of said user-base. If it was a simple percentage, GT4 would've sold more than GT3, but it didn't. This is enough to ruin your percentage theory. Additionally, the chances are higher that a PS3 owner was a PS2 owner than not, but there's really no way to tell how many were the ones who bought GT3, GT4, both or none. Then there's the fans that are still waiting for a full GT release, of unknowable quantity, that still don't own a PS3.

Here's a predictive model for you. GT has sold over 10 million for 3 out of the 4 main titles and Halo is 1 for 4. Therefore, GT5 has a good chance to outsell Halo: Reach.

I'm not arguing with you that in total sales, the GT franchise comes out on top. GT has the advantage of spanning 3 generations which conventiently pads your total sales. The GT4 comparison to Halo 3 is closest we have to full retail vs full retail release. But it's still very lopsided just because of the totally disparate sizes of the userbases.

I could just as easily say, using your own example that, based on your logic,GT4 should have outsold GT3. But it didn't. Neither of us come out winners on that one.

You're falling back on total sales which is statistically more unsound for what we're trying to compare... more unsound than going by a sales:userbase ratio. Totals are nothing more than totals without context. The ratio provides more context than raw totals alone.

So fine, let's take a look at the trending for total sales for each series, iteration over iteration. GT is a bit sporadic with GT3 being at the high point. Halo shows near geometric increase through Halo 3, dropping off at ODST. Based on the numbers taken by themselves, it really his hard to predict. Your guess is about as good as mine really.

What do these trends mean? ODST wasn't a true sequel, changing narrative and mission structure, shifing focus away from a central character. The series faces major competition with Modern Warfare.

What about GT4? That was a full sequel that did worse then the one before. My guess is because it dropped the ball with online and had a major competitor emerge in the sim racing space in the form of Forza.

Where does that leave us?

One major difference I see is that the Halo series has delivered a Halo game consistently over time, keeping the brand name out there. It also helps that it's still one of the top 3 most played multiplayer games on the platform. Its strength in multiplayer is a known quanitity.

The last time GT delivered a full game was on last generation hardware. Has the long wait built up anticipation or apathy? Based on general buzz, I tend to think the latter. With so much time passing between full games, the quality of its supposed new features, and new technology are a big question mark. While I see a big surge within the first month of release, I think that too many people have moved on.

At this point, the Halo series has been more consistent. If one thing differentiates sales performance, I think past consistency will be the deciding factor here.

I'm totally theorizing, as many of us are, but that's how I see it.

Just to point out how innacurate VGChartz is, GT5P has sold 4,840M units.

Thanks for the tip, Mr. Sherlock Flop.

IronBass

Elementary, my dear IronBass.

This isn't actually VGChartz being inaccurate, they don't track sales of downloads hence the apparent discrepancy.

Just to point out how innacurate VGChartz is, GT5P has sold 4,840M units.

Thanks for the tip, Mr. Sherlock Flop.

IronBass

[QUOTE="IronBass"]

Just to point out how innacurate VGChartz is, GT5P has sold 4,840M units.

Thanks for the tip, Mr. Sherlock Flop.

Floppy_Jim

Elementary, my dear IronBass.

This isn't actually VGChartz being inaccurate, they don't track sales of downloads hence the apparent discrepancy.

i'v actually been reading Sherlock Holmes this summer.

It's amazing to see how none of his stereotypes actually fit the character in the books

[QUOTE="asylumni"]So we just ignore the fact that GT5: P is not by any means a full release, has a fraction of the content of a full release and was generally hammered by reviews for this? Should we also consider sales of Halo Wars then?vashkey

What? Have you ever actually played a GT game? Prologue got up to 76 cars and 6 tracks and only a handful of events total through the updates. That is a very small fraction of a full GT release. ODST shipped with a full campaign, co-op survival mode and a fully featured competitive multiplayer mode with not just every map ever released for Halo 3 but new maps as well. This was a full release in any regard by both the creators who charged a full release price and the critics that lauded it with AAA scores.

So it's gone from "WILL" to "SHOULD"? :P Both games are incredibly high profile, and both look to be amazing, so it's going to be close.

Its 4,840K units. That's 4.840.000 million units. GodofEmpires

And since it's clear what's meant, I'm gonna leave it that way.

[QUOTE="vashkey"][QUOTE="asylumni"]So we just ignore the fact that GT5: P is not by any means a full release, has a fraction of the content of a full release and was generally hammered by reviews for this? Should we also consider sales of Halo Wars then?asylumni

What? Have you ever actually played a GT game? Prologue got up to 76 cars and 6 tracks and only a handful of events total through the updates. That is a very small fraction of a full GT release. ODST shipped with a full campaign, co-op survival mode and a fully featured competitive multiplayer mode with not just every map ever released for Halo 3 but new maps as well. This was a full release in any regard by both the creators who charged a full release price and the critics that lauded it with AAA scores.

[QUOTE="Floppy_Jim"]

[QUOTE="IronBass"]

Just to point out how innacurate VGChartz is, GT5P has sold 4,840M units.

Thanks for the tip, Mr. Sherlock Flop.

ohthemanatee

Elementary, my dear IronBass.

This isn't actually VGChartz being inaccurate, they don't track sales of downloads hence the apparent discrepancy.

i'v actually been reading Sherlock Holmes this summer.

It's amazing to see how none of his stereotypes actually fit the character in the books

Wasn't he a cocaine addict in the books? :o I've been meaning to see the recent movie on Blu-Ray.

10 million easy

[QUOTE="asylumni"]

[QUOTE="VoodooHak"]

Forget the fact that we're somehow excluding the PS3 and GT5P which is available a lower price.

There is no doubt that the GT franchise has outsold Halo as a whole. But we're trying to come up with a predictive model which means we have to weight the figures to account for userbase. That would be a more apples to apples comparison.

With PS2 as well over 100mil units and the 360 at 40 mil units. Even if we bump 360 up to 50 mil units and keep PS2 down at 100, the ratio is still in favor of Halo outselling GT.

VoodooHak

So we just ignore the fact that GT5: P is not by any means a full release, has a fraction of the content of a full release and was generally hammered by reviews for this? Should we also consider sales of Halo Wars then?

Attempting to draw conclusions based on total user-base is useless unless you know the make-up of said user-base. If it was a simple percentage, GT4 would've sold more than GT3, but it didn't. This is enough to ruin your percentage theory. Additionally, the chances are higher that a PS3 owner was a PS2 owner than not, but there's really no way to tell how many were the ones who bought GT3, GT4, both or none. Then there's the fans that are still waiting for a full GT release, of unknowable quantity, that still don't own a PS3.

Here's a predictive model for you. GT has sold over 10 million for 3 out of the 4 main titles and Halo is 1 for 4. Therefore, GT5 has a good chance to outsell Halo: Reach.

I'm not arguing with you that in total sales, the GT franchise comes out on top. GT has the advantage of spanning 3 generations which conveniently pads your total sales. The GT4 comparison to Halo 3 is closest we have to full retail vs full retail release. But it's still very lopsided just because of the totally disparate sizes of the user-bases.

I could just as easily say, using your own example that, based on your logic,GT4 should have outsold GT3. But it didn't. Neither of us come out winners on that one.

You're falling back on total sales which is statistically more unsound for what we're trying to compare... more unsound than going by a sales:userbase ratio. Totals are nothing more than totals without context. The ratio provides more context than raw totals alone.

So fine, let's take a look at the trending for total sales for each series, iteration over iteration. GT is a bit sporadic with GT3 being at the high point. Halo shows near geometric increase through Halo 3, dropping off at ODST. Based on the numbers taken by themselves, it really his hard to predict. Your guess is about as good as mine really.

What do these trends mean? ODST wasn't a true sequel, changing narrative and mission structure, shifing focus away from a central character. The series faces major competition with Modern Warfare.

What about GT4? That was a full sequel that did worse then the one before. My guess is because it dropped the ball with online and had a major competitor emerge in the sim racing space in the form of Forza.

Where does that leave us?

One major difference I see is that the Halo series has delivered a Halo game consistently over time, keeping the brand name out there. It also helps that it's still one of the top 3 most played multiplayer games on the platform. Its strength in multiplayer is a known quanitity.

The last time GT delivered a full game was on last generation hardware. Has the long wait built up anticipation or apathy? Based on general buzz, I tend to think the latter. With so much time passing between full games, the quality of its supposed new features, and new technology are a big question mark. While I see a big surge within the first month of release, I think that too many people have moved on.

At this point, the Halo series has been more consistent. If one thing differentiates sales performance, I think past consistency will be the deciding factor here.

I'm totally theorizing, as many of us are, but that's how I see it.

Actually, my model was just based on the amount of sales a particular IP has generated with each instalment and doesn't predict rankings. GT has garnered over 10m sales 3/4 times so chances are it will again. Halo has done this 1/4, therefore it is less likely to break 10m. Therefore, GT5 has a good chance to outsell Reach.

I would argue that user-base is less important than the strength of the brand and the quality of the release. Sure, releasing to a higher crowd gives you more chances to make the sale, but it's ultimately up to the title to bring in that sale. User-base just provides opportunity. Very few people grab random games off the shelf.

Either way, the results are hardly guarenteed. And this is further complicated by the change in gen, when the big reset button is pressed and every company starts over. Some users stick with a company, some go to another, and some just add or subtract from the companies they support. But without any indicators of who went where (ok chances are good many went to Nintendo), it's impossible to predict buying habits as a userbase percentage.

It will be close, and I don't care which comes out on top.FIipMode

Im with you on that

[QUOTE="asylumni"]

[QUOTE="vashkey"] ODST is more comparable in this sense. Halo Wars was by a different developer an in a genre that the halo series isn't known for. Like Prologue ODST had a fraction of the content of a full release yet still managed to sell roughly two million more copies than Prologue.vashkey

What? Have you ever actually played a GT game? Prologue got up to 76 cars and 6 tracks and only a handful of events total through the updates. That is a very small fraction of a full GT release. ODST shipped with a full campaign, co-op survival mode and a fully featured competitive multiplayer mode with not just every map ever released for Halo 3 but new maps as well. This was a full release in any regard by both the creators who charged a full release price and the critics that lauded it with AAA scores.

Yes, and so does the Creative Director at Bungie;

"Joseph Staten: When we first announced ODST at Tokyo Game show last Fall, we hadn't proven we could execute on two, really ambitious parts of ODST's design -- ambitious because our team was much, much smaller than a typical Bungie team with a much shorter development timeline -- and those two things were the big, non-linear, nighttime city of New Mombasa and Firefight.

Frankly, we didn't want to over-promise and under-deliver. But that certainly made things more painful when we did execute on the nighttime city and Firefight -- as well as a nice, meaty campaign -- and then had to change our messaging to say, basically, "Hey, this game can stand on its own two feet!

It's big, ambitious and absolutely worth the cash!" In the end, even with the confusion, I'm glad we can say this with confidence now rather than making a risky claim last Fall. There's a ton of great content inside the ODST package for our fans to enjoy!"

[QUOTE="x8VXU6"]

I dont like GT or Halo so u can guess how muchI care?

Easyle