Grand Theft Auto IV: The Beginning of the End

http://gigaom.com/2008/06/18/why-gta-iv-was-the-beginning-of-the-end/

I think it's safe to say that the era of next-gen gaming as a driving force is over. Why? As of the week ending June 7th (the most recent tally available), just over 9 million copies of the highly touted Grand Theft Auto IV had been sold worldwide for the Xbox 360 and Sony PS3 combined, according to VGChartz.

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies.With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copiestotal. What's more, it cost a record$100 million to develop.

But it gets worse.

Despite being part of one of the most popular video game series of all time, the arrival of GTA IV failed to boost salesof new next-generation consoles. (PS3 and 360 are defined as "next-gen" for boasting the best and latest graphics features.) Meanwhile, sales of the non-next-gen, GTA IV-less Nintendo Wii were double that of PS3/360's numbers combined. If Grand Theft Auto can't move more machines, nothing can. Which not only suggests that the market for next-gen consoles has been exhausted, but that the audience for big budget, AAA next-gen titles has beentapped out, too.

Which is why I think GTA IV is next-gen's siren song, and a sign of drastic changes to come.Expect to see games made for lower budgets, targeted at wider audiences (ones that aren't fixated on high-end 3D graphics) and delivered over broadband with a micropayment program in place. Don't expect a follow-up to the 360 or PS3 anytime soon, either. In other words, the days when so-called "next-gen" gaming reigned supreme are coming to end — instead, the industry's future will be shaped by games like Rock Band.

***********************************

The gaming industry is finally maturing and moving into the mainstream.

• Game developers not being tied to budgets to express their creativity!
• Sales and profit no longer being seen by game devs as the primary measures of success!
• Fans who judge a game's quality based on artistry than some arbitrary percentage-point!
• The growth of a healthy independent movement outside of the trash-heap that is Xbox Live Arcade!
• Games that don't need $40 million budgets to be considered "great"!

*sniffle*

It's so beautiful!

Very good read.

A point I think is relevent that you didn't discuss though, the Wii. It's driving the majority of growth in the console market, yet GTA 4 is absent from it. Obviously that's going to impede its software sales and drive that trend you described of wide audiences and low budget games.

Nah I'm gona have to disagree there.

Its hard to compared San Andreas' sales with IV's sales when SA was made far further into the life cycles of the then current generation of consoles.

Currently the laughably dubbed 'next gen' consoles are still expensive for what they deliver. Its still early in their life, considering Sony and Microsoft seem avowed to keep this generation alive far longer than is viable, simply to cheap out designing a new one and rape the corpse of this generation until it fragments into dust.

Nicko Bellic, an Eastern Europian guy, came to America in search of the American dream. Why does he need to come to America? Let's have GTA somewhere in Europe or Asia continent. It's way better setting than boring old Liberty City. The change of scenery will boost the sale too. Trust me.

Nicko Bellic, an Eastern Europian guy, came to America in search of the American dream. Why does he need to come to America? Let's have GTA somewhere in Europe or Asia continent. It's way better setting than boring old Liberty City. The change of scenery will boost the sale too. Trust me.

ToiletOnHisHead

see, I thought so too, until I realized that the GTA games are largely satires of American Culture....if their not set in America....all that Satire would be gone.

Will game studios and console makers try to keep their budgets under control? Sure. Will they studios completely abandon their current business models/franchises and stop targetting the audiences that support them? Of course not.

Is the sky falling? Hardly.

Will game studios and console makers try to keep their budgets under control? Sure. Will they studios completely abandon their current business models/franchises and stop targetting the audiences that support them? Of course not.

Is the sky falling? Hardly.

Teufelhuhn

It's not about abandonment, it's about diversification. How would Hollywood be faring nowadays if the ONLY movies that studios allowed their directors to to make are action, horror, and cartoon comedy movies?

What you say is true, but almost everybody had a PS2, or an xbox when San Andreas released, but now that consoles are so expensive there arent as many consoles per household. Therefore San andreas would sell more copies because almost everybody had at least a PS2 or xbox.

What you say is true, but almost everybody had a PS2, or an xbox when San Andreas released, but now that consoles are so expensive there arent as many consoles per household. Therefore San andreas would sell more copies because almost everybody had at least a PS2 or xbox.

skatatay

[QUOTE="skatatay"]

What you say is true, but almost everybody had a PS2, or an xbox when San Andreas released, but now that consoles are so expensive there arent as many consoles per household. Therefore San andreas would sell more copies because almost everybody had at least a PS2 or xbox.

Mr_lulz

Over the years, our current gen systems may sell like last gen's did, but im not so sure it will boost the sales of a games that may be old by that time.

PC Gaming says NO.EVOLV3

PC gaming says yes, a lot of what PC gaming stands for is what the TC posted.

[QUOTE="skatatay"]

What you say is true, but almost everybody had a PS2, or an xbox when San Andreas released, but now that consoles are so expensive there arent as many consoles per household. Therefore San andreas would sell more copies because almost everybody had at least a PS2 or xbox.

Mr_lulz

What the writer of the article is trying to say is that so-called "next generation consoles" (the 360 and PS3) are fast approaching a DEAD END, and that if the gaming industry is going to grow AT ALL, developers will have to turn away from the stock-standard action movie template for game design.

[QUOTE="Mr_lulz"][QUOTE="skatatay"]

What you say is true, but almost everybody had a PS2, or an xbox when San Andreas released, but now that consoles are so expensive there arent as many consoles per household. Therefore San andreas would sell more copies because almost everybody had at least a PS2 or xbox.

mjarantilla

What the writer of the article is trying to say is that so-called "next generation consoles" (the 360 and PS3) are fast approaching a DEAD END, and that if the gaming industry is going to grow AT ALL, developers will have to turn away from the stock-standard action movie template for game design.

makes me wish ps2 was still the standard...looks like its time to get some cash ready to go back to pc gamingstereointegrity

I feel the same way too. With so many amazing PC games coming out, it looks like its time to get a new PC.

[QUOTE="mjarantilla"][QUOTE="Mr_lulz"][QUOTE="skatatay"]

What you say is true, but almost everybody had a PS2, or an xbox when San Andreas released, but now that consoles are so expensive there arent as many consoles per household. Therefore San andreas would sell more copies because almost everybody had at least a PS2 or xbox.

Mr_lulz

What the writer of the article is trying to say is that so-called "next generation consoles" (the 360 and PS3) are fast approaching a DEAD END, and that if the gaming industry is going to grow AT ALL, developers will have to turn away from the stock-standard action movie template for game design.

No, because the writer was obviously trying to use GTAIV as an example for the greater library of 360/PS3 games in general, and while GTAIV may have a deep story and complex characters, the number of games released since the start of this generation that have those qualities can be counted on one hand. Therefore, he could not have been referring to GTAIV as an example for good storytelling or good characterization.

That leads me to believe, along with his comment about budget, that he was referring specifically to those types of games that sold multi-millions in the last generation and which, in this generation, would cost a butt-load (i.e. above $20 million) to make. High production values, emphasis on cinematic storytelling, heavily cinematic-sty1e marketing appeal, etc.

Oh, and the 360 has already begun to decline in sales. The 360 and PS3 may not stop selling per se, but when the Wii is selling 3,000,000 a month worldwide while the 360 and PS3 are each selling only about 300,000 a month, they might as well stop selling entirely.

San Andreas was released on PC also. It was also near the end of the PS2/Xbox life cycles. You shouldnt compare.

9 million is an awesome figure to sell, it shouldnt be called a failure.

I think you're over looking a few things. Assuming GTA4 never sells another copy, it walks away with 440 million in profit. I don't think that's a very low profit margin and I think it's plenty of money to justify a sequel.

Another thing to note is that the Wii so far hasn't been that great for 3rd party developers or game sales in general. Wii console sales have been through the roof, yet people haven't been buying many games especialy 3rd party games.

Profit is the meassure of success. Always will be. Companies make games to make money. That's what companies are for.

I think you're over looking a few things. Assuming GTA4 never sells another copy, it walks away with 440 million in profit. I don't think that's a very low profit margin and I think it's plenty of money to justify a sequel.

Another thing to note is that the Wii so far hasn't been that great for 3rd party developers or game sales in general. Wii console sales have been through the roof, yet people haven't been buying many games especialy 3rd party games.

Profit is the meassure of success. Always will be. Companies make games to make money. That's what companies are for.

There is room for more sales have PS3 and Xbox 360. Take a look at what MGS4 did to PS3 sales. trakem

a) GTAV is as inevitable as Iron Man 2, but the point of the article is to point out a declining trend with cinematic-sty1e games like GTAIV.

b) IIRC, the Wii's software has outsold the 360's software since December. Besides, the Wii's software sales figures continue to grow proportionately with its userbase. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the 360's software sales have largely remained flat since it reached the 10 million mark.

c) True.

d) That's a one-time burst that isn't likely to be repeated until FFXIII. Don't count on those bursts to sustain a console or to revitalize flagging sales. The 360 experienced a similar burst with Halo 3, yet now it's posting record-low monthly NA sales less than a year later.

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies.With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copiestotal. What's more, it cost a record$100 million to develop.

mjarantilla

Your comparing the sales of a game that been out for 4 years to a game thats been out for 2 months? :roll:

How about comparing 1st week sales:

GTA SA-2 million at $50 each

GTA 4-6 million at $60 each

GTA4 had the biggest first day and 1st week in the history of the entertainment industry.

It grossed more than movies that have 200 million dollar budgets.

[QUOTE="mjarantilla"]

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies.With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copiestotal. What's more, it cost a record$100 million to develop.

Cranler

Your comparing the sales of a game that been out for 4 years to a game thats been out for 2 months? :roll:

How about comparing 1st week sales:

GTA SA-2 million at $50 each

GTA 4-6 million at $60 each

GTA4 had the biggest first day and 1st week in the history of the entertainment industry.

It grossed more than movies that have 200 million dollar budgets.

If you'll read the article more closely, the 12-14 million figure is the article author's projected total sales for GTAIV, not its current sales. Moreover, the article isn't about GTAIV specifically.

Seriously, why can't System Warriors ever see the forest for the trees?

[QUOTE="Cranler"][QUOTE="mjarantilla"]

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies.With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copiestotal. What's more, it cost a record$100 million to develop.

mjarantilla

Your comparing the sales of a game that been out for 4 years to a game thats been out for 2 months? :roll:

How about comparing 1st week sales:

GTA SA-2 million at $50 each

GTA 4-6 million at $60 each

GTA4 had the biggest first day and 1st week in the history of the entertainment industry.

It grossed more than movies that have 200 million dollar budgets.

If you'll read the article more closely, the 12-14 million figure is the article author's projected total sales for GTAIV, not its current sales. Moreover, the article isn't about GTAIV specifically.

Seriously, why can't System Warriors ever see the forest for the trees?

Is the article writer some sort of proven soothsayer?

9 million sales in 2 months and only 3-5 million more til the end of time? I see no logic there.

omg 2k made a 440 million of profit, i mean thats so bad :roll: what were they thinking :roll:

andf liek omgz, they should start making crappy games like they do on the wii, like cooking mama and whatnot :roll: i cant wait

So what the writer is trying to say is that Bratz will start to sell over a million copies?

:lol:

[QUOTE="mjarantilla"][QUOTE="Cranler"][QUOTE="mjarantilla"]

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies.With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copiestotal. What's more, it cost a record$100 million to develop.

Cranler

Your comparing the sales of a game that been out for 4 years to a game thats been out for 2 months? :roll:

How about comparing 1st week sales:

GTA SA-2 million at $50 each

GTA 4-6 million at $60 each

GTA4 had the biggest first day and 1st week in the history of the entertainment industry.

It grossed more than movies that have 200 million dollar budgets.

If you'll read the article more closely, the 12-14 million figure is the article author's projected total sales for GTAIV, not its current sales. Moreover, the article isn't about GTAIV specifically.

Seriously, why can't System Warriors ever see the forest for the trees?

Is the article writer some sort of proven soothsayer?

9 million sales in 2 months and only 3-5 million more til the end of time? I see no logic there.

You act as if the audience for GTAIV is infinite. It's not. 9 million sold in 2 months only means that there are 9 million fewer potential customers lining up to buy GTAIV. It doesn't matter how fast they sold those nine million copies if there's a hard limit to the target audience caused by a small user base.

Personally, I thiink the 12-14 million projection is still unreasonably low, but I do think GTAIV will sell many millions fewer than San Andreas. I think it'll hit Vice City numbers, meaning around 17-18 million, instead of San Andreas' 22 million.

That article is full of LOL. The author is assuming way too much.

Not all games are going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars. GTA IV was the exception, not the rule.

San Andreas came towards the end of the generation's life cycle, whereas GTA IV came just before the halfway mark. Also, San Andreas had the benefit of the PS2's massive userbase. GTA IV does not.

When GTA San Andreas came out, the PS2 had an installed base of 90 millions consoles in late 2004. When Sand Andreas came out on the XBox, it was at its peak with about 30 millions consoles.

When GTA4 came out the last couple of months it made about roughly $400 million with a combined install base of PS3/360 at around 30 million consoles or less. Of course it won't sell as well as its predecessors if the current install base is a fraction of last gen but for selling the amount it is on such a smaller amount of conosles is an achievement in itself.

YOu made a lot of sense until I read.

Sales and profit no longer being seen by game devs as the primary measures of success!

Sales and proffit are pretty frikken important. At the end of the day devs are people too and need the $$ to stay in business pay for their families etc. Other than that an intersting post.

It also bodes ill for PS3 and 360 to some extent. Big hitters are out of the way now and PS3 is still in last place. Both consoles have some big hitters left, but nothing like GTA. I would suggest the "race" is over, what we have it

Wii first

360 Second

PS3 close third

gg

makes me wish ps2 was still the standard...looks like its time to get some cash ready to go back to pc gamingstereointegrity

Why? because random forum poster #2463 told you whats gonna happen in the future? Ugh..... *sigh* I wont bother saying what I want to say, I'll just get modded.

okay lets see, SA lifetime sales = 21.5 millions

(platforms) xobx + ps2 userbase = 130 millions or so

now lets look at the current fanbase and GTA4 sales:

GTA4 current sales (vg chartz) : 9 millions

platforms : xbox 36 + ps3 = around 33 millions

yeah whoever wrote that article is a frigging idiot

Expect to see games made for lower budgets, targeted at wider audiences (ones that aren't fixated on high-end 3D graphics) and delivered over broadband with a micropayment program in place. Don't expect a follow-up to the 360 or PS3 anytime soon, either. In other words, the days when so-called "next-gen" gaming reigned supreme are coming to end — instead, the industry's future will be shaped by games like Rock Band.

mjarantilla

After the dumbing down of pc games thanks to multiplat, any more dumbing down and you will be making sweet music by clacking spoons together with your buddy's on the couch. Not that GTA's gameplay was anything more than running basic check-pionts and shooting people in the face for cheap jolly's to begin with. All this "next gen" crap, most of the games you are playing the same games you were playing 8-10 years ago with shoe-polish.

okay lets see, SA lifetime sales = 21.5 millions

(platforms) xobx + ps2 userbase = 130 millions or so

now lets look at the current fanbase and GTA4 sales:

GTA4 current sales (vg chartz) : 9 millions

platforms : xbox 36 + ps3 = around 33 millions

yeah whoever wrote that article is a frigging idiot

Dante2710

How is he an idiot? It makes perfect sense.

Big name games like Halo3, GTa4 and MGS4 are costing more and more to produce, but the market for those games isnt growing. The numbers you posted just prove his point. GTA4 and these next gen consoles is selling at a lower ratio than their predecessors, but the games and the systems are costing companies 2-3x as much to produce. Meanwhile the portential market for these games/systems isnt growing anymore. It's tapped out.

It had to happen eventually. There are only so many people interested in that form of entertainment, so without bringing in new audiences (like nintendo and the wii), it was destined to plateau at some point.

Companies arent going to keep raising the bar if the best they can expect is to meet the same sales as they did on their previous, less expensive title.

And then when you look at the state of the American economy these days and....well....its just more fuel for the fire.

The Wii is hot now but old news within a year or two .zekere

I'm not a nintendo fanboy, I dont own a wii and probably never will but these statements still amuse me.

Werentt people saying that a year or two ago? lol

It didnt sell as much as SA because GTA4 didnt have a 130mil install base.

It didnt push consoles becouse it wasn't exclusive/timed exclusive like the other games.

1. San Andreas was released much further into last gen, install bases were far bigger.

2. IV has not yet been released on PC, nor has it been given a 'best sellers' release or all the other things we can expect in the future.

3. Its been out for less than 6 months.

Console gaming is dying!!!!!!!!!!!

Quickly everyone start making threads!!!!!!!!

Console gaming is dying!!!!!!!!!!!

Quickly everyone start making threads!!!!!!!!

skrat_01

PC Gaming is dying, Console Gaming is dying.

ARGH!!!

:cry: