Grand Theft Auto IV: The Beginning of the End

[QUOTE="Cranler"][QUOTE="mjarantilla"][QUOTE="Cranler"][QUOTE="mjarantilla"]

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies.With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copiestotal. What's more, it cost a record$100 million to develop.

mjarantilla

Your comparing the sales of a game that been out for 4 years to a game thats been out for 2 months? :roll:

How about comparing 1st week sales:

GTA SA-2 million at $50 each

GTA 4-6 million at $60 each

GTA4 had the biggest first day and 1st week in the history of the entertainment industry.

It grossed more than movies that have 200 million dollar budgets.

If you'll read the article more closely, the 12-14 million figure is the article author's projected total sales for GTAIV, not its current sales. Moreover, the article isn't about GTAIV specifically.

Seriously, why can't System Warriors ever see the forest for the trees?

Is the article writer some sort of proven soothsayer?

9 million sales in 2 months and only 3-5 million more til the end of time? I see no logic there.

You act as if the audience for GTAIV is infinite. It's not. 9 million sold in 2 months only means that there are 9 million fewer potential customers lining up to buy GTAIV. It doesn't matter how fast they sold those nine million copies if there's a hard limit to the target audience caused by a small user base.

Personally, I thiink the 12-14 million projection is still unreasonably low, but I do think GTAIV will sell many millions fewer than San Andreas. I think it'll hit Vice City numbers, meaning around 17-18 million, instead of San Andreas' 22 million.

Good sales now bodes well for the future. A lot of people are holding off for a possible pc version. Hasnt been released in Japan yet.

Does the writer even factor in the recession? What about Halo 3 close to outselling Halo 2 in less than a year?

These kinds of games are still selling great and will continue to be made. Theirs not going to be some great shift in the gaming industry.

This guy is just trying to get more hits on his site.

Good sales now bodes well for the future. A lot of people are holding off for a possible pc version. Hasnt been released in Japan yet.

Does the writer even factor in the recession? What about Halo 3 close to outselling Halo 2 in less than a year?

These kinds of games are still selling great and will continue to be made. Theirs not going to be some great shift in the gaming industry.

This guy is just trying to get more hits on his site.

Cranler

The PC version isnt going to be some huge 10 million seller. Also, GTA is not big in Japan. Not nearly as big as it is in the west.

But you guys can't seem to grasp the BIG PICTURE. This isnt about any one game or about any one generation. It's about the product life cycle of the so-called "hardcore" game.

http://www.quickmba.com/marketing/product/lifecycle/

These types of games won't be the cream of the crop forever. 50 years ago they probably thought monopoly would copntinue to be the top selling board game. But things change.

So basically gaming is in a timewarp and were back to the 80;s. It feels like its gonna be a original NES gaming for a bit.

As that Incubus song says, everything moves in circles.

Whatever, StarCraft 2, Diablo 3, Street Fighter 4, Resident Evil 5, Twisted Metal PS3. I see gaming fine.

Doesn't impress me, there are still that many next-gen users yet to buy and there are lot of people with a Wii.

They should have waited a little bit.

14 million copies * 60$ a pop = 840 million dollars

that completely swamps 100 million dollar production costs.

14 million copies * 60$ a pop = 840 million dollars

that completely swamps 100 million dollar production costs.

shadyd1717

developers dont even come close to making full returns off a game sale....unless they are valve and own their own digital distrobution service.

14 million copies * 60$ a pop = 840 million dollars

that completely swamps 100 million dollar production costs.

shadyd1717

i agree, and your sig is hilarious, wheres it from?

also here in the UK the game costs £40, which is about $80

[QUOTE="shadyd1717"]

14 million copies * 60$ a pop = 840 million dollars

that completely swamps 100 million dollar production costs.

Arjdagr8

i agree, and your sig is hilarious, wheres it from?

Its from the Office.

[QUOTE="Arjdagr8"][QUOTE="shadyd1717"]

14 million copies * 60$ a pop = 840 million dollars

that completely swamps 100 million dollar production costs.

cobrax75

i agree, and your sig is hilarious, wheres it from?

Its from the Office.

ohh, the american one right? need to start watching that

It's simple, the tastes of consumers are changing, so with it the developers are adapting to satisfying these new tastes.

I don't understand the comparison between San Andreas and IV. Of course San Andreas would have sold more within the same time period, the install base of the Playstation 2 was astronomical. By the end of 2004, the Sony had sold roughly 81 million PS2's, so of course San Andreas would have sold more versus a 12 million and 19 million install base.

People this isn't just about San Andreas sales in comparison to GTA4 sales, huddled with their respective userbase. This also has to do with gaming development costs. Hell that example doesn't even work on all fronts concerning the difference of user base in number... take a look at MGS3.

With that said, let's not go a little too hasty with this. Going mainstream may, and I say again may actually turn out to be a good direction for the industry like... well, everything else in the entertainment industry... but again... the ifs still remain.

Let's not jump to conclusions at this point. The video game industry has proven time and again to be a very flexible one, but to think that such a direction in gaming will just stop by gens end is a little premature if not stop altogether. Hell it could be argued that going mainstream would actually help this area come to fruition instead of hinder it in the long run.

With that said, let's not go a little too hasty with this. Going mainstream may, and I say again may actually turn out to be a good direction for the industry like... well, everything else in the entertainment industry... but again... the ifs still remain.

StealthSting

Like pc games?

14 million copies * 60$ a pop = 840 million dollars

that completely swamps 100 million dollar production costs.

shadyd1717

That 100 million is only on production. Thats not including advertising, shipping, packaging and other physical production. And then you gotta factor in the money they are losing from lisencing fees, taxes, distribution of wealth (developer, publisher, investors, etc), and then microsoft/sony taking their share of each and every sale.

I'm sure they made lots of money from gta4, but It's not as simple as 14 million x 60 = 840 million. It's never that simple. And projections are saying that it wont make as much money as previous installments in the series. Even if it somehow does push 21 million units like SA, the increased cost of development/advertising means that they will make less profit as a result

[QUOTE="StealthSting"]

With that said, let's not go a little too hasty with this. Going mainstream may, and I say again may actually turn out to be a good direction for the industry like... well, everything else in the entertainment industry... but again... the ifs still remain.

Kez1984

Like pc games?

Sure. Why not. The PC platform is not only a place where a lot of the hardcore userbase in the gaming industry resides, but it also retains many mainstream material. And while some next gen consoles like the PS3 and 360 are trying to follow the computer like road in a lot of areas, they do in fact fail in some of the most important ones.

But by entertainment industry I mean everything: Movies; literature... everything. I would hardly believe that such industries would maintan their stance and or quality where it not for their mainstream products. But again the video games industry works in different ways, at least at this point.

It's the only industry I know that maintains the negative stance of any group of loyal followers like the Hardcore gamer, and it makes you think if we're actually in fact helping the industry mature to a place among other entertainment industries. There is the view and the possiblity that sure the video games industry may fall in quality alltogether do to this road, but it may not, if not all together go in a completely different way than the hadcore userbase expects.

It will make the industry more acceptable to the public. What will that bring? I do not know. It may make it grow and flourish in all areas. It may make it grow in areas of storyline, it may make it grow in areas of gameplay and expectations outside of the constant stigma of the hardcore gamers towards the industry. Then again it may not... who the hell knows.

[QUOTE="Cranler"][QUOTE="mjarantilla"][QUOTE="Cranler"][QUOTE="mjarantilla"]

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies.With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copiestotal. What's more, it cost a record$100 million to develop.

mjarantilla

Your comparing the sales of a game that been out for 4 years to a game thats been out for 2 months? :roll:

How about comparing 1st week sales:

GTA SA-2 million at $50 each

GTA 4-6 million at $60 each

GTA4 had the biggest first day and 1st week in the history of the entertainment industry.

It grossed more than movies that have 200 million dollar budgets.

If you'll read the article more closely, the 12-14 million figure is the article author's projected total sales for GTAIV, not its current sales. Moreover, the article isn't about GTAIV specifically.

Seriously, why can't System Warriors ever see the forest for the trees?

Is the article writer some sort of proven soothsayer?

9 million sales in 2 months and only 3-5 million more til the end of time? I see no logic there.

You act as if the audience for GTAIV is infinite. It's not. 9 million sold in 2 months only means that there are 9 million fewer potential customers lining up to buy GTAIV. It doesn't matter how fast they sold those nine million copies if there's a hard limit to the target audience caused by a small user base.

Personally, I thiink the 12-14 million projection is still unreasonably low, but I do think GTAIV will sell many millions fewer than San Andreas. I think it'll hit Vice City numbers, meaning around 17-18 million, instead of San Andreas' 22 million.

GTA IV sold 8.5 million copies in one month.

hmmmm well gta 4 has made 500 million dollars so far so im pretty sure they are clear, then there is the 50 million microsoft gave them....so yeah take two has made alot of profit.WilliamRLBaker

in your dreams. GTA made 500 million FIRST WEEK. So far, it should be at about 700 million. At least

[QUOTE="ToiletOnHisHead"]

Nicko Bellic, an Eastern Europian guy, came to America in search of the American dream. Why does he need to come to America? Let's have GTA somewhere in Europe or Asia continent. It's way better setting than boring old Liberty City. The change of scenery will boost the sale too. Trust me.

cobrax75

see, I thought so too, until I realized that the GTA games are largely satires of American Culture....if their not set in America....all that Satire would be gone.

Are you so naive so as to say that all other world superpowers are without fault in any way? A lot of American video game market analysts need to realise that the United States are fast becoming a cesspit for unoriginality.

What you say is true, but almost everybody had a PS2, or an xbox when San Andreas released, but now that consoles are so expensive there arent as many consoles per household. Therefore San andreas would sell more copies because almost everybody had at least a PS2 or xbox.

skatatay

To be fair, PS2 was the top dog by strides in the last generation of consoles.

makes me wish ps2 was still the standard...looks like its time to get some cash ready to go back to pc gamingstereointegrity

I suppose its a good time to plan out my new rig for the sparsely populated (for consoles) 2009.

It looks like alot of AAAA titles this generation are benefiting (and losing out, in a way) from high spikes in first week sales and then an extremely sharp downturn in the months to follow... This says something about the way consoles are selling.

For example, GTAIV, H3, and MGS4 sold massively in their first 3-5 Days and practically died after that. Mario Galaxy was selling steadily, albeit with a much smaller early spike in sales.

It is hard to see where this is an advantage/disadvantage but a steady 2.5 Million copy sell, decreasing at a rate of approximately 20% a month, with the decreasing value falling by say 1.5% a month, leveling out, and spiking when a new AAAAE comes out (SSBB) is an extremely valuable business model. 360 and PS3 are both utilising a far more exaggerated form of this concept, and the PC has opted for a middle ground approach.

From a casual standpoint, Wii definitely has the best marketing strategy. 360 and PS3 are too kind of "Hot Burners, Short Lifespan" when it comes to profit margins on AAAA/AAAAE games.

Compare the attach rate. With about 10 million sold and an install base of 40 million aprox., that's an attach rate of 25%, compare to 21.5 million to an install base of 100 million, it's about 21.5%. GTA actually sold better on the next gen systems, as it has a bigger attach rate.luigigreen

Your Install Base approximations are massively exaggerated, but on the same scale as the scale we are seeing.You are making a good point.

Compare the attach rate. With about 10 million sold and an install base of 40 million aprox., that's an attach rate of 25%, compare to 21.5 million to an install base of 100 million, it's about 21.5%. GTA actually sold better on the next gen systems, as it has a bigger attach rate.luigigreen

Attach rate on its own is meaningless. The PS2 had terrible attach rates, but that's because it had a diverse audience. It had a large enough userbase that anything could be made on it and still be successful.

This article is about the LACK of audience diversity in so-called "next-gen systems," and how that lack of diversity will lead to stagnation for the 360 and PS3.

So the game sells almost half of the San Andreas sales. At full price, In only a couple of months, while San Andreas has been out for years has been dead cheap for ages. Also GTA4 did it on a smaller install base on less platforms (the PC version of GTA4 is not even out yet). And that is bad?

Mkay:roll:

At the time San Andreas released on the PS2, the PS2 had an installed base of 71 million consoles, give or take, making an attach ration of 30.28% of PS2 owners from launch of the game owned a copy, also assuming that all 21.5 million copies were sold within a week, thus not allowing for an expanding userbase, and the games ports to other platforms.

The PS3 and 360 combined had an installed base of 30.3 million consoles by the time GTA IV launched. GTA IV has sold 9.6 million units, an attach ratio of 31.68%.

Pretty comparable IMO.

At the time San Andreas released on the PS2, the PS2 had an installed base of 71 million consoles, give or take, making an attach ration of 30.28% of PS2 owners from launch of the game owned a copy, also assuming that all 21.5 million copies were sold within a week, thus not allowing for an expanding userbase, and the games ports to other platforms.

The PS3 and 360 combined had an installed base of 30.3 million consoles by the time GTA IV launched. GTA IV has sold 9.6 million units, an attach ratio of 31.68%.

Pretty comparable IMO.

SpruceCaboose

Attach ratio is meaningless when you're talking about diverse audiences like that of the PS2.

[QUOTE="SpruceCaboose"]

At the time San Andreas released on the PS2, the PS2 had an installed base of 71 million consoles, give or take, making an attach ration of 30.28% of PS2 owners from launch of the game owned a copy, also assuming that all 21.5 million copies were sold within a week, thus not allowing for an expanding userbase, and the games ports to other platforms.

The PS3 and 360 combined had an installed base of 30.3 million consoles by the time GTA IV launched. GTA IV has sold 9.6 million units, an attach ratio of 31.68%.

Pretty comparable IMO.

mjarantilla

Attach ratio is meaningless when you're talking about diverse audiences like that of the PS2.

Attach ratios are now meaningless?

This thread gets more confused by the post.

Look here TC, the article you quoted says absolutely nothing new or insightful. This is what it should have said:

1. The Wii is kicking the PS3 and 360 butts

2. The Wii is not an uber graphics, tech crammed machine...ergo.....Sony and MS have likely overstated the market importance of the specs of their machines

3. Because of the Wii success, more and more developer's are going to dedicate resources to it (oh the insight there!!!)

4. Game development costs are starting to get crazy, especially for the 360/PS3....and beyond the PS3's programming woes...the bigger issue is the size of the art teams and costs associated with graphics (oh the 2nd big insight!!!!)

That's what the article should have said. And then he could have speculated:

1. This will lead to more multi-plats (oh the 3rd big insight there)

2. And it could lead to more resources on shorter, smaller, less graphically demnading gmes (see above Wii comments)

3. And it could also lead to new innovation in programming techniques a la advocated by Will Wright and used in Spore. Try searching: procedural generation. This point would have been the only semi-insightful comment, had the author made it. Too bad he defaulted to the limited options he understands.

It's completely understandable.

When a nex-gen gamer generally must have a HD TV, spend $500 on a system and then pay $60 for a game, you're looking at a very small segment of consumers. That market is going to be tapped out fairly quickly - especially with the way the economy/gas prices have been.

You're only going to hit a broad mainstream market when you can get the price down like the Wii has done and the PS2 did. Money drives everything. And the high cost of nex-gen gaming deters a lot of consumers from making the plunge.

[QUOTE="SpruceCaboose"]

At the time San Andreas released on the PS2, the PS2 had an installed base of 71 million consoles, give or take, making an attach ration of 30.28% of PS2 owners from launch of the game owned a copy, also assuming that all 21.5 million copies were sold within a week, thus not allowing for an expanding userbase, and the games ports to other platforms.

The PS3 and 360 combined had an installed base of 30.3 million consoles by the time GTA IV launched. GTA IV has sold 9.6 million units, an attach ratio of 31.68%.

Pretty comparable IMO.

mjarantilla

Attach ratio is meaningless when you're talking about diverse audiences like that of the PS2.

How else would you compare an installed base of at least 71 million to one of 30 million? Straight over, 1:1? That is what would be meaningless.

[QUOTE="Cranler"]

Good sales now bodes well for the future. A lot of people are holding off for a possible pc version. Hasnt been released in Japan yet.

Does the writer even factor in the recession? What about Halo 3 close to outselling Halo 2 in less than a year?

These kinds of games are still selling great and will continue to be made. Theirs not going to be some great shift in the gaming industry.

This guy is just trying to get more hits on his site.

TeamR

The PC version isnt going to be some huge 10 million seller. Also, GTA is not big in Japan. Not nearly as big as it is in the west.

But you guys can't seem to grasp the BIG PICTURE. This isnt about any one game or about any one generation. It's about the product life cycle of the so-called "hardcore" game.

http://www.quickmba.com/marketing/product/lifecycle/

These types of games won't be the cream of the crop forever. 50 years ago they probably thought monopoly would copntinue to be the top selling board game. But things change.

1. I don't trust VGchartz and neither should you...
2. 8-9 million after 2 1/2 months IS damn good for a game with soooo much competition on the shelves...
3. The year hasn't ended yet.. IF M$/Sony drop the prices of their machines to a consumer friendly level, you may see a surge of sales for games like this one.
4. 3rd party games still sell like **** on the wii.. so what incentive would 3rd party devs have for going that route?

The only thing this gen is proving is that...

The economy is effecting sales of VG (even though It recently surpassed the sales of DVD's).

There's a fine line being drawn between "hardcore gamers" and "non-gamers"...

PRICE IS A FACTOR... 2 1/2 years into the PS2's(and the XB's) lifecycle the system sold for $150-179(I forget the actual price) at retail...

2 1/2 years into the 360 lifecycle the cheapest system is still $300. With the more desired versions retailing for $350-$450. And don't get me started on the PS3...

[QUOTE="mjarantilla"][QUOTE="SpruceCaboose"]

At the time San Andreas released on the PS2, the PS2 had an installed base of 71 million consoles, give or take, making an attach ration of 30.28% of PS2 owners from launch of the game owned a copy, also assuming that all 21.5 million copies were sold within a week, thus not allowing for an expanding userbase, and the games ports to other platforms.

The PS3 and 360 combined had an installed base of 30.3 million consoles by the time GTA IV launched. GTA IV has sold 9.6 million units, an attach ratio of 31.68%.

Pretty comparable IMO.

SUD123456

Attach ratio is meaningless when you're talking about diverse audiences like that of the PS2.

Attach ratios are now meaningless?

This thread gets more confused by the post.

Look here TC, the article you quoted says absolutely nothing new or insightful. This is what it should have said:

1. The Wii is kicking the PS3 and 360 butts

2. The Wii is not an uber graphics, tech crammed machine...ergo.....Sony and MS have likely overstated the market importance of the specs of their machines

3. Because of the Wii success, more and more developer's are going to dedicate resources to it (oh the insight there!!!)

4. Game development costs are starting to get crazy, especially for the 360/PS3....and beyond the PS3's programming woes...the bigger issue is the size of the art teams and costs associated with graphics (oh the 2nd big insight!!!!)

That's what the article should have said. And then he could have speculated:

1. This will lead to more multi-plats (oh the 3rd big insight there)

2. And it could lead to more resources on shorter, smaller, less graphically demnading gmes (see above Wii comments)

3. And it could also lead to new innovation in programming techniques a la advocated by Will Wright and used in Spore. Try searching: procedural generation. This point would have been the only semi-insightful comment, had the author made it. Too bad he defaulted to the limited options he understands.

^^ Yea what he said.

1. I don't trust VGchartz and neither should you...
2. 8-9 million after 2 1/2 months IS damn good for a game with soooo much competition on the shelves...
3. The year hasn't ended yet.. IF M$/Sony drop the prices of their machines to a consumer friendly level, you may see a surge of sales for games like this one.
4. 3rd party games still sell like **** on the wii.. so what incentive would 3rd party devs have for going that route?

The only thing this gen is proving is that...

The economy is effecting sales of VG (even though It recently surpassed the sales of DVD's).

There's a fine line being drawn between "hardcore gamers" and "non-gamers"...

PRICE IS A FACTOR... 2 1/2 years into the PS2's(and the XB's) lifecycle the system sold for $150-179(I forget the actual price) at retail...

2 1/2 years into the 360 lifecycle the cheapest system is still $300. With the more desired versions retailing for $350-$450. And don't get me started on the PS3...

OhSnapitz

Once again, GTA IV sold more than 8.5 million copies one month after release. It's higher now.

a) GTAV is as inevitable as Iron Man 2, but the point of the article is to point out a declining trend with cinematic-sty1e games like GTAIV.

b) IIRC, the Wii's software has outsold the 360's software since December. Besides, the Wii's software sales figures continue to grow proportionately with its userbase. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the 360's software sales have largely remained flat since it reached the 10 million mark.

c) True.

d) That's a one-time burst that isn't likely to be repeated until FFXIII. Don't count on those bursts to sustain a console or to revitalize flagging sales. The 360 experienced a similar burst with Halo 3, yet now it's posting record-low monthly NA sales less than a year later.

mjarantilla

Grand Theft Auto will continue on with a great series of games and will continue to raise the bar/test the waters for a game can do. I think GTA 4 was a little overrated at the fact the multiplayer was weak but, the single player game and the choices you could make added some life. That's why I can not wait to play Saint's Row 2 because of the extra activities you can do now to add replay value because of games like Grand Theft Auto. Grand Theft Auto with comedy = Saint's Row 2..

Grand Theft Auto will continue on with a great series of games and will continue to raise the bar/test the waters for a game can do. I think GTA 4 was a little overrated at the fact the multiplayer was weak but, the single player game and the choices you could make added some life. That's why I can not wait to play Saint's Row 2 because of the extra activities you can do now to add replay value because of games like Grand Theft Auto. Grand Theft Auto with comedy = Saint's Row 2..

lvgaming

Your right. It wasnt exactly like GTA3 with a makeover and the ability to take a date to the cabaret. It wasnt....errr..wait...yes it was!

IS that what counts as raising the bar these days? Sad...

[QUOTE="lvgaming"]

Grand Theft Auto will continue on with a great series of games and will continue to raise the bar/test the waters for a game can do. I think GTA 4 was a little overrated at the fact the multiplayer was weak but, the single player game and the choices you could make added some life. That's why I can not wait to play Saint's Row 2 because of the extra activities you can do now to add replay value because of games like Grand Theft Auto. Grand Theft Auto with comedy = Saint's Row 2..

TeamR

Your right. It wasnt exactly like GTA3 with a makeover and the ability to take a date to the cabaret. It wasnt....errr..wait...yes it was!

IS that what counts as raising the bar these days? Sad...

lol, I have to be more detailed in these forums.. Sorry I meant test the water/raise bar as in Hookers, Shooting Cops, Killing Innocent People,Car Jacking and Driving around with a corpse in the car... You know the the immoral tasteless things.

Theres so many stuff that are wrong here...

A PC version is coming so expect about 1 or 2 million sales ( and 15 million pirated copies) .

GTA 3 sold about 11 million copies because the user base wasn't as wide. If they make another GTA game by the end of this generation they will sell way more.

The 360 downloadable content should make some profit .

They were stupid for not being more efficient and wasting 100 million bucks.

Edit : if GTA 4 costed 100 million MGS4 is similar in costs I assume and how are they gonna recoup that money with only 3 million in sales ?

Thats a dumb story alright..

On two consoles with an installed base of some 30 million put togheter GTA4 sells 9 million..

That is compared too GTA 3 which sells 21,5 million on the PS2 (110 million?). xbox(25 or so) (And PC's which can run it, estimate of atleast 250 million nowadays, yeah I just made that up, its probably more then that)

So the conclusion this article has is that GTA4 sells poorly in comparison too GTA3? Worst conclusion ever.. Also why does he pull out of his a$$ that it doesn't boost PS3 and Xbox sales? That statement is in no way related too the reality..

And using the term "next gen" is dumb anyway..

Worst article ever.. cant belive there are positive comments in this topic.. He even ignores that the PS3 is selling almost aswell as the PS2 was at this point in its life..