How well does the Switch have to sell for Nintendo to continue making hardware?

First, let's talk about Nintendo's huge install base drop going from the 7th to 8th generation of video games.

DS + Wii total sales = 255 million units sold

3DS + Wii U total sales = 73 million units sold

That is a install base loss of 71% from generation to generation. Devastating would be an understatement. We can only assume the trend will likely continue with the Switch. I'm not saying a 71% drop off, but lower than 8th gen sales by a good amount.

Nintendo has now moved to a singular device with the Nintendo Switch and it will have to do both duties in getting both console and handheld gamers on board. When we look at the concept we obviously aren't looking at another original Wii level concept that is going to pull in massive amounts of casuals, so pretty much Nintendo is going to have to rely more on hardcore Nintendo fans to make this device somewhat successful.

Questions we have to ask is, what demand is there for dedicated Nintendo hardware overall in 2017 regardless if people plan to use this just in their home, just on the go, or a combination of the both?

How will the Switch manage to sell as well as the 3DS in a post $99 Tablet world?

Realistically, who does this device appeal to outside Nintendo fans? Why will people who weren't interested in the Wii U or 3DS last gen possibly be interested in this device?

Most importantly can this device create enough new Nintendo fans to justify Nintendo to keep making hardware in the foreseeable future?

What are your honest thoughts about its potential success?

Armchair analysts, get in here.

Maybe 20-30 Million, they already said they are considering a "3DS successor" so that might be a hedge in case the Switch sells slowly. My guess is the "3DS successor" would just be the same hardware, but in a different and cheaper form factor. So if the Switch struggles below 20 Million sales, maybe this 3DS successor could keep them going with another 20+ million. So then out of this platform that would effectively be 40 MIllion+ sales. Still a decline path, but probably enough to keep them going another gen as a hardware maker IMO.

Wouldn't it be redundant to make a dedicated handheld alongside the Switch? I mean the Switch is pretty much the 3DS successor. Its going to get all the big franchises that were seen on the 3DS (e.g. Pokemon). I'm pretty sure the whole point of the Switch is so Nintendo can simply focus on one device now to avoid massive droughts.

20 - 30 million was my prediction in terms of its lifetime sales, but a potential 50 - 60% drop off from 3DS/Wii U sales is pretty freaking bad.

^ Exactly. Sheep have been saying Switch will have a much better gaming library since developers will only have to focus on one platform to make games on.

I don't think Nintendo would make a "3DS successor" at an attempt to negate Switch sales failures.

That would take them back to square one on the drawing board, dividing the game libraries.

Interesting. I think the Switch is Nintendos's Dreamcast. I think it will do great in the beginning. and then just like the Wii U before developers are going to not support it. At that point Nintendo will sweat it out for a year or two bleeding money but supporting it nonetheless and then quietly discontinue the "console" soon after.

Nintendo's problem is they do not have a company like them to compete with. They are an arcade gaming company. Much like SEGA and ATARI. Microsoft and Sony are tech giants. Nintendo by there own admission have said they have no interest in competing with the other two. This is good because it allows Nintendo to retain what makes them them. It is bad because like I said they have no competitor like they did when SEGA was around in the 80s and 90s.

Sell better than the bone

That's a tough one. As you mentioned this is a unique situation where the Switch might have to pull double duty and appeal to both handheld and console gamers alike. If consumers see value in the hybrid concept I can see it doing very well (beyond 3DS sales) but only if the content is there. Assuming Switch receives ports from PS4/X1/PC it becomes a question of whether or not people see value in having their games somewhat compromised (if it does receive ports they are almost certainly going to be geared for the Switch's lesser hardware) in favor of them being mobile. I'm sure some will buy it for use as a home console only but the real incentive to buy needs to be the unique hybrid concept something that the other two consoles simply cannot offer.

The Switch will be a true test of the brand power of Nintendo's IPs. Is Pokemon so popular simply because it can be found on cheaper hardware or are people willing to fork over full console price? I mention Pokemon because it's a sales phenomenon. It, over every other Nintendo IP, might be the most crucial to the Switch's success.

I think the minimum sales number for the Switch to reach in order to be considered successful is relatively low. If it's making a profit from day one I see no reason Nintendo wouldn't be satisfied with ~25M in sales.

Sell enough units that it will make a decent amount of profit.

30 million

They'll still make tons on 1st party games, amiibos and mobile games

imo if they sell less than around 35 million they will seriously consider the third party route. Nintendo was once a third party/arcade developer. They can go third party again.

Good points, but I don't know if I'd use simply making some profit as a good enough reason for Nintendo to keep making hardware. I'm pretty sure Nintendo made profit off the Wii U, but they obviously weren't not at all happy with its sales and if the Switch doesn't meet expectations I just can't see them continuing in the hardware business.

I'm also very curious on how Nintendo prices its Switch games. Will people be willing to pay $60 for Pokemon, we'll just have to wait and see.

Someone at Nintendo confirmed even after Switch reveal that they are still considering a "3DS successor".

What comes to mind for me, is a device that would use the same architecture as the Switch, and play all Switch games. But it would drop the "docking station" and be in a more traditional handheld form, rather than the tablet with detachable controllers. Kind of like 3DS vs. 2DS where they made a cheaper form factor to boost 3DS overall sales. I agree it would make little sense for them to make something that is totally different (game wise) to the Switch. So basically the Switch is the 3DS successor, but again, Nintendo said they are also considering a "separate" 3DS successor - so that leaves us to speculate. It's a shame Nintendo didn't mention anything about making a real console.

Since nobody here actually works for Nintendo, it's impossible to know just what their financial expectations are for the device, and what the answer to this thread's question would be.

So it would probably be best to lock the thread now and avoid 20 pages of garbage discussion.

@2Chalupas: Why get rid of the detachable controllers? Just make a SKU with the current Switch device sans docking station and have it bundled in with a AC power supply instead, but for people to be interested the price would have to be a good deal lower than the standard SKU. Then again I can't see the docking station adding a lot to the price of the overall console as it seems to be mainly just an HDMI pass through and Charging station.

Anything south of 40m I would consider disappointing, all other variables remaining constant (proportional market share, as an example).

Arcade developer? Yes.

Third party developer? You do realize those Atari and Coleco games weren't developed by Nintendo right? Only licensed. It's like saying Infinity Ward developed the Wii port of CoD4, when that was Treyarch.

Don't be lazy. If you have nothing of value to add in this thread then don't bother posting.

Of course you'd want to silence anyone who questions Nintendo's future.

How much of a loss of the install base do you think Nintendo can accept with the Switch coming from the previous gen?

Do you think it has the potential to sell as good, or better than the 3DS, if so explain why.

Yeah, this space ship is not going to be the 3DS successor... Carry around your Wii U Gamepad all day, see how that goes, because that is essentially exactly how it's going to be with this stupid thing...

I guess it would come down to profit margins. Something else to consider is in what market Nintendo places the Switch. If they see mobile as competition then I say good fu.cking luck lol

I would hope they price games accordingly. Like if we get a 3DS/DS style Pokemon it had better not be $60. A Pokemon game with home console production values could pull off that price though.

Damn, what a party pooper.

To make it cheaper, that's why. Maybe with a 5" screen and the buttons built into it. That would be more appealing to people that actually want to travel with it as a separate device. Assuming that tablet is around 7", that is kind of in no-man's land. It looks a little big with the detachable controllers sticking out of the side. Not necessarily as portable as handhelds past. It's basically as big and bulky as an IPAD, but I severely doubt it is an IPAD replacement in terms of capability and app availability.

Of course they could also make a "dirt cheap" console out of it. They could make a really tiny console, like the size of a ROKU. Bundle that with a Pro-Controller for like $149 and I'm sold. The one positive about using the Tegra chip, they could probably make a few different form factors really easily and really cheaply that all play the same games. Still no good for multiplats, but a cheap system to play Nintendo games would be OK in my book.

Really interested in hearing your full opinion about what we know so far about the Switch. You excited for the device? Is there anything that you find disappointing?

If they move forward with their ideas of licensing their IPs for movies, theme parks and even more products in general, 25-30 million with a higher software attach rate should be enough to at least keep them profitable. I think.

Of course they want more. As they should.

Honestly, I think I'd be more interested in the cheap Switch console box you brought up. I have no interest in gaming on the go, so having a separate device with a screen has no appeal to me, but shoot if they can make a $100 - $150 Switch console I'd probably be very interested. That would be cheap enough for me to play some Nintendo games.

Some bad feelings (like that D-Pad redesign... WTF?), but otherwise I'm being cautious. I'll wait on buying one like I did Wii U.

Same here, I dont' care about portability I just want to play some Nintendo games at home. $149 would be very reasonable for a Tegra based console once you take away the Tablet chassis (i mean the equivalent thing is $199 right now, but at a higher mass market it would drop in a hurry). In a few years, such a device would cost practically nothing to produce at scale.

Unfortunately, Nintendo isn't to bright with those things. They thought their cheap tablet justified a $100 price premium on the Wii-U (it didn't), and I have no doubt this thing will probably sell for $299+. The Nvidia Shield is $199. Nintendo's little gimmick is basically so they can sell a $199 thing for $299, nothing more.

The great Sean Malstrom predicts a $199.99 price point, I think it will be below $300 and probably aim at $249.99.

Nintendo is lost as a company, they need haaaalp.

Nintendo is using this console as a bridge for mobile/pc games

Probably easy to port games on this device to ios/android/steam

Meanwhile sony and microsoft are stucking making games for like 30-45 million people nintendo can sell to billions of people.

If this thing sells more than the ps4 sony and microsoft are just straight up dead in the water.

I would say 30+ million and they will be ok.

Launch at 300$ and i think it will sell well enough

I agree, this thing is going to be $250 tops with a bundled game, or $199.99 without a game bundled.

Yep, I see Nintendo trying to make profits out of this, and looking at the price of the Nvidia Shield TV, it was $300 for 500 GB storage while there was one for $199.99 for 16 GB. Knowing Nintendo, if their internal storage memory is 32 GB, it makes the Switch more affordable but the issue is less storage space. I'm hoping for at least 128 GB of storage as it's more affordable.

@FireEmblem_Man: Thats the old K1 for $199. Its weaker than Wii U.

Look again, only the Shield Tablet has the old K1!

@FireEmblem_Man: Thats what i said, for $199. Ndivia said NS will be one of their top performing leading gaming graphics cards and be scalable. The X1 isnt scalable and isnt their top performing. Dont forget, X1 is old too.

Isn't it obvious that if sales are slow after a couple of years that they will simply sell Switch without the console base and give it a deep price cut?

Damn, at least ask difficult questions.

No you didn't you said that was the K1, and I know that the X1 is old and isn't scalable, I'm just stating that was the price when it came out. Like I stated, I think Nintendo wants this as affordable as possible.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the Switch is going to be sold out everywhere. It's going to be hot. It will sell much more than it needs to in order to even have to worry about any of that. This will put Nintendo back on the map. Those that can't see that are blind. I foresee shortages. Call me crazy, wouldn't be the first time around here over the years.. just be ready for a double heaping of crow, which has been served steaming hot on each and every occasion I was doubted.

The only way Nintendo can fail with this is to WAY overprice it (which wont happen), lose all 3rd party support (which is highly unlikely ((already has 3 times the support as the WiiU))), or to (for whatever reason) decide to release an additional handheld (something different) on the side. If this is the ALL IN ONE go to package of console AND handheld then it will sell more than they can keep in stock. It will have the Japanese market consumed, and the US market, and the rest of the world will follow... because if you have those two install bases locked down it WILL have the games... and after all, isn't that what it is all about? Nintendo must be licking their chops right now. They get to get into the race late, with a comparable product, that can likely be manufactured for much cheaper than it could have a couple/few years back (hello WiiU) that doubles as a handheld and WONT be forgotten about by developers until AT LEAST the Pro and Scorpio run their course since all games must scale down.

SONY and MS thought they were killing it by going after each other, but Nintendo saw that as an opportunity and is poised and ready to try and catch lightning in a bottle once again. The other two opened the door and Nintendo is going to come barging right on in. Will this be my number one console/device? I don't know, it's hard to say, but I know I will have at the minimum 3 in my household alone, which is more than any other console or handheld I have ever owned. I'm positive there are a lot of others just like me out there as well.

@FireEmblem_Man: I stated the K1 is for $199. I wasnt talking about the X1 Shield Pro that use to be $299.

As long as the rumor that it will have external HD space is true (I really hope it is) then I'm fine regardless of what it's rocking.

I'll be okay with that as well, also the Shield TV on both the 16 GB and PRO 500 GB does support SDXC, so having a 1 TB SD Card will be okay for me as long as Nintendo doesn't put any restrictions on it like they did on the Wii U.

I honestly don't think it will launch at anything less than $299. I'd like to be surprised, but I just don't see it happening.

As for the sales needed: don't really matter to me. I'll most likely get one some time after launch. And I'll use it as long as it's supported. Why stress over stuff like this?

Or why not just drop the screen and make it a cheap console? People who play on the go use their phones and tablets now.

@WitIsWisdom: Why do you think its going to be sold out everywhere?

You thinking that a 71% loss of install base is huge, when you're ignoring history. The Wii's sales were astronomical when compared to previous consoles they had launched, and dwarfed it's predecessor. I'm not going to say the Wii U was a success when it comes to sales, it was far from it.

I also think it is unfair to try to compare sales of one console, even if it is a handheld/console hybrid with two separate machines.Many people who bought a Wii, also owned a DS. Many people who bought a Wii U, also owned a 3DS. Unless, you're going to double the number of Switch's sold, it's not a fair comparison.

If the Switch sells over 15 million units, it's out performed the Wii U. Comparing a home console(which is what the Switch is at it's base), to a handheld is also not fair. But you know what, whatever makes you happy, and sleep better at night.. feel free to continue to think it. Just remember, Nintendo didn't start at the DS/Wii..

Nintendo will be making hardware as long as they continue to profit. Nintendo has been very good at staying profitable over the years.

It has to sell at last 30 million. It will sell almost half that in the first year itself.

You think its gonna sell Wii U total numbers in just a year? What makes you think it will be a big seller?