Sony tends to release a new console every 6 years. PS1 = 1994, PS2 = 2000, PS3 2006. PS4 will very likely launch on holiday 2012. It wont be any sooner because Sony surely wants to get the most out of PS3.
Xbox had a 4 year cycle (2001-2005). It is rumored that MS will launch the next xbox in a 5 year cycle. This suggests holiday 2010.
This would give MS a 2 YEAR jump on Sony. Nintendo is irrelevant as MS clearly has its eyes on Sony. This will force Sony to either rush the PS4 and cut short the PS3. The PS1 and PS2 had 10 year cycles no problem, but PS3 is in third, and is a financial black hole. The next Xbox will cut it short.
Now, we are at a point where graphics wont be getting much better. Even if PS4 has better graphics power then the 2 year younger Xbox, the games will still look similar....only the most hardcore will see a difference. In the 2 years, MS will have massive dev support, devs will be experienced and will yet again make Xbox games and port them down to the PS4.
I also think MS will elarn from cows this gen....by making all the changes based on cow complaints. There will be a standard harddrive, wifi, reliability, and an internal bluray player. Live will still cost money but MS will obviously include new features to justify it.
Next gen, Sony doesnt have a chance against MS. As for Nintendo, as a lemming I could care less. The war is against SOny, not Nintendo.
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